Economic Calendar

Tuesday, February 17, 2009

Khodorkovsky Charges in $25.5 Billion Case Revealed by Russia

By Garfield Reynolds and Emma O’Brien

Feb. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Russian prosecutors released new details of their indictment of Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the imprisoned former chief executive officer of OAO Yukos Oil Co., on charges of embezzling 896 billion rubles ($25.5 billion).

Khodorkovsky conspired in 1998 with other Yukos shareholders, including former business partner Platon Lebedev, to embezzle and launder 892.4 billion rubles of oil and 3.6 billion rubles of shares in companies associated with Vostochnaya Oil Co., in which Yukos held a controlling stake, the Prosecutor General’s Office said yesterday in a statement on its Web site.

The details, which relate to charges brought two years ago, don’t amount to an expansion of the case against Khodorkovsky, his Moscow-based lawyer Yuri Schmidt said by telephone yesterday. They are part of a 14-volume brief provided by the state investigator to Khodorkovsky’s legal team, he said. The tycoon’s lawyers have dismissed the charges as “absurd.”

Khodorkovsky, once Russia’s richest man with a fortune Forbes magazine estimated at $15 billion, is serving an eight-year sentence in Siberia for fraud and tax evasion, charges he claims were brought in retribution for opposition to then-President Vladimir Putin. The dismantlement of Yukos, once Russia’s biggest oil producer, helped Putin’s government consolidate its hold over the world’s second-largest oil exporting industry.

State-run OAO Rosneft became Russia’s biggest oil producer by acquiring most of Yukos’s assets when the company was declared bankrupt under the weight of more than $30 billion in back taxes.

Deputy Prosecutor General Viktor Grin confirmed the investigators’ conclusion that Khodorkovsky, 45, and Lebedev, 49, are guilty of the theft and money-laundering charges.

Second Trial

Schmidt said it remains unclear when Khodorkovsky will stand trial for a second time, though it’s likely to be held in Moscow.

The tycoon was arrested at gunpoint when his private plane was stormed at a Siberian airport in October 2003 and convicted in a Moscow court in 2005.

Putin, who remains at the center of Russian power as prime minister, said in an interview last month that subduing billionaires has never been his goal as long as their fortunes are earned legally and they contribute to the social good of the country.

To contact the reporters on this story: Garfield Reynolds in Sydney at greynolds1@bloomberg.netEmma O’Brien in Moscow at eobrien6@bloomberg.net;





Read more...

SP AusNet Cut to ‘Hold’ by Goldman JBWere on Bushfire

By Angela Macdonald-Smith

Feb. 17 (Bloomberg) -- SP AusNet, the Australian power distributor majority owned by Singapore Power Ltd., was cut to “hold” from “buy” by Goldman Sachs JBWere Pty, which cited its potential liability for two bushfires in Victoria.

“We cannot recommend buying SP AusNet given the unquantifiable nature of this risk,” Goldman Sachs JBWere said in a Feb. 16 report. Should SP AusNet’s liability amount to A$100 million ($65 million), the company may have to either reduce its dividend or take on more debt, it said.

A writ was filed yesterday by Slidders Lawyers in the Supreme Court of Victoria, on behalf of landowners and residents who suffered losses in bushfires this month, alleging Melbourne- based SP AusNet allowed faulty power lines to catch fire. The utility is blamed for causing fires at Kilmore and Beechworth, according to the court documents.

Melbourne-based SP AusNet said it believes the claim “is premature and inappropriate” given the establishment of a Royal Commission to examine the bushfire crisis. The company will “vigorously defend the claim,” it said in a statement today to the Australian Stock Exchange.

SP AusNet fell 5.3 percent to 99 cents in Sydney trading, the lowest close for four weeks. Its Singapore shares dropped 3.9 percent to 99 Singapore cents.

“We think SP AusNet’s strong operational focus suggests it should have proper maintenance schedules in place, which should in our view help to address the allegations,” Merrill Lynch & Co. said in a separate Feb. 16 report. Merrill retained its “buy” recommendation on the stock.

Liability Insurance

The company’s legal liability has been capped at A$100 million under a 1995 agreement between the former state government and private utility operators, the Sunday Age newspaper reported Feb. 15.

SP AusNet said it has liability insurance that provides cover for bushfires and is reviewed annually. The cover “is arranged with local and global insurers, many of which specialize in the insurance requirements of the utility industry,” it said in the statement.

The death toll from the Feb. 7-8 bushfires that destroyed four major towns and dozens of hamlets around the state stands at 189. The fires razed more than 1,800 houses and left 7,000 people homeless, according to Victoria’s Country Fire Authority.

To contact the reporter on this story: Angela Macdonald-Smith in Sydney at amacdonaldsm@bloomberg.net





Read more...

Canada’s ‘Dirty’ Tar Sands to Test Obama’s Green-Energy Goals

By Jim Efstathiou Jr.

Feb. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Petroleum extracted from tar sands in Canada may provide the first foreign-policy test for President Barack Obama’s environmental agenda.

U.S. and Canadian conservationists have called on Obama to reject any bid to exempt the oil from proposed climate-protection rules when he visits Canada Prime Minister Stephen Harper this week in Ottawa, his first head-of-state meeting as president.

The oil is separated from sand and clay with intense heat in a process that releases more greenhouse gases than pumping conventional crude. The total “life-cycle” of emissions released, all the way to filling a car’s tank with gasoline, are 20 percent more, the Rand Corp. research organization of Santa Monica, California, said in a 2008 report.

“Obama’s going to be under heavy pressure from Canada to allow the current importation to continue and to dramatically expand it on energy-security grounds,” said Bill Grant, associate executive director of the Izaac Walton League of America, a conservation group. “And there’s going to be a strong pushback from the environmental community on that.”

Environmentalists increasingly want the entire life-cycle of fuels regulated to stem greenhouse-gas emissions blamed for global warming. California, the most populous state, has proposed rules to promote cleaner fuels that would effectively ban tar- sands oil mined in Alberta, according to Gary Mar, minister counselor in Washington for the western Canadian province.

Obama backs slashing emissions of heat-trapping gases to 1990 levels and hasn’t announced a policy on heavy oil from Canada. The new president will have to square his environmental agenda with his call to trim dependence on oil supplies from the Mideast and with the U.S.’s longstanding policy to treat Canada as a commercial and strategic ally.

Largest Trade Partner

Canada is the U.S.’s biggest trading partner with about $600 billion in annual commerce last year. It sells about 60 percent of its tar-sands oil to U.S. refineries. Canada has invested about C$110 billion ($88 billion) in tar-sands developments since 1958.

The U.S. imported about 780,000 barrels a day of tar-sands oil in 2008, according to the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers. Nexen Inc., owner of the C$6.1 billion Long Lake oil- sands project in Alberta, Royal Dutch Shell Plc., Europe’s largest oil company, and other producers plan to ship about 3.3 million barrels a day by 2020.

Oil sands hold the equivalent of 173 billion barrels, enough to supply the U.S. for 24 years. Only Saudi Arabia, the biggest producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, has more reserves.

‘Breathing Life’

“We want American policy makers to know that our oil is the largest supply in the world outside the control of OPEC,” Mar, who represents Alberta in the U.S. capital, said in an interview. “This can go a long way to breathing life into the president’s desire to reduce reliance on oil that comes from less-friendly parts of the world.”

Energy and the environment are on the agenda for the Feb. 19 meeting, said Harper’s spokesman, Dimitri Soudas. He declined to comment on the prospect of rules that could affect oil exports.

“To be frank on the oil sands, we’ve got to do a better job environmentally,” Harper told a Calgary radio station on Jan. 13. “At the same time, the development of these things is pretty important, in our judgment, to North American energy security. So I think there’s balance to be seen there.”

Wishart Robson, climate-change adviser to Nexen’s chief executive, Marvin Romanow, said the U.S. can spend far less to help clean up tar sands oil than it does to secure supplies from Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members. The government of Alberta has pledged $2 billion to develop systems to capture and store carbon-dioxide emissions from processing oil sands.

“It’s in our mutual interest to bring this on,” Robson said in an interview. “Is there a way that we can share those costs for the benefit of both countries?”

‘Dirty, Dangerous’

Obama campaigned on a promise to wean the U.S. off “dirty, dwindling and dangerously expensive” oil. As president he supports a national rule to encourage cleaner motor fuels. The former Illinois senator hasn’t said whether he favors the California pollution-control model, which could shut out oil imports from Alberta, or regulations such as those being debated in Minnesota that would continue oil sands imports.

Obama spokesman Ben LaBolt declined to comment.

“Canada is extremely concerned that California would set the course to national and possibly international low carbon fuel policies,” Scotty Greenwood, executive director of the Washington-based Canadian American Business Council, said in an interview.

Mining, Heating

Canada Environment Minister Jim Prentice said the neighbors should work together to develop systems that would trap and bury underground the carbon-dioxide emissions from making tar-sands oil. That would help “transition from a high-carbon present to a low-carbon future while avoiding a disruptive and dislocative period,” Prentice said in a Jan. 20 speech.

Tar sands are deposits of bitumen, a heavy, viscous oil that must be upgraded before it can be used by refiners. Higher carbon emissions come mainly from the energy needed to separate the oil from the sand and clay it is bound up with. The tar is extracted either by mining or heating the earth and pumping it out.

“We don’t want the U.S. to do anything to support expansion of tar sands,” Susan Casey-Lefkowitz, director of the Canada program at the environmental advocate Natural Resources Defense Council, said in an interview. “More than that, we want to see life-cycle analysis of the greenhouse-gas emission of fuels so you’re not encouraging fuels that have higher emissions.”

Oil-sands mines along the Athabasca River near Fort McMurray, Alberta, are as large as 80 meters (262 feet) deep and have claimed almost 500 square kilometers (193 square miles) of forest. They have created bitumen and clay-laden ponds with oily sheens of grays and green hues that have killed scores of birds.

‘Cheap Fuel’

“You want low carbon emissions but you want cheap fuel,” Ryan Todd, an analyst for Deutsche Bank AG in New York, said in an interview. Strict regulations “would obviously be incredibly damaging to Canada’s oil and gas sector and very disruptive to global oil markets.”

Producers also face market challenges. Oil prices must return to $85 to $100 a barrel for them to turn a profit, Todd said.

No matter how reliable Canada may be as a U.S. supplier, it won’t make up for the environmental costs of producing tar sands oil, Casey-Lefkowitz said.

“Harper may hope to get special protections for tar sands emissions,” Casey-Lefkowitz said. “We’re not sure that you can ever make tar sands extraction environmentally sustainable.”

For Related News and Information: Top environment stories: GREEN Stories about climate change: NI CLIMATE Top oil news: OTOP Canadian oil sands: NSE ALBERTA OIL SANDS More-read environmental news: MNI ENV





Read more...

BG Raises Bid for Pure, Topping Shell Partner’s Offer

By Angela Macdonald-Smith

Feb. 17 (Bloomberg) -- BG Group Plc raised its hostile bid for Pure Energy Resources Ltd., topping an offer by Royal Dutch Shell Plc’s Australian partner in coal-seam gas, as BG seeks to add reserves for an export venture.

The U.K.’s third-biggest gas producer boosted its cash offer by 25 percent to A$995 million ($646 million) or A$8 a share, the company said today in a statement. That’s 10 percent higher than a revised Feb. 11 cash and stock bid from Brisbane- based Arrow Energy Ltd., based on today’s closing price.

Arrow first bid for Pure in December to build reserves to feed a planned liquefied natural gas project. Australia’s coal- seam gas industry attracted more than A$17 billion in investment last year as producers tapped into ventures that may meet rising Asian demand for cleaner fuel. Pure today rose to A$8.36 in Sydney trading, indicating some investors expect a higher offer.

BG’s latest bid “still looks as though it’s within the range of previous acquisitions, so it’s not overspending,” said Andrew Williams, an energy analyst at Credit Suisse Group in Melbourne. “It’s conjecture whether Arrow can come back or not with a higher offer.”

Pure Energy gained 88 cents, or 12 percent, to a record close. BG’s latest bid is more than double the price Pure was trading at before Arrow made its initial A$5.40-a-share offer in December. Arrow advanced 1.9 percent to A$2.73 in Sydney trading.

Reading, England-based BG is being advised by Gresham Advisory Partners, while Goldman Sachs JBWere Pty is advising Pure and Wilson HTM Corporate Finance is advising Arrow.

‘Competitively Priced’

Arrow is “considering its position” and recommends Pure shareholders take no action on BG’s offer, the company said today in a statement to the exchange. The stock part of Arrow’s offer “provides significant upside for Pure shareholders,” Managing Director Nick Davies said.

Shell, which owns 30 percent of Arrow’s Australian acreage and 11.2 percent of Pure, is evaluating the offers and can’t comment further, Claire Wilkinson, a Perth-based spokeswoman, said in an e-mail. Shell had earlier supported Arrow’s original offer. The independent directors of Pure Energy, which had recommended Arrow’s offer, are reviewing BG’s bid, Pure said in a separate statement.

Davies said earlier today he believed Pure’s assets were “still competitively priced” at Arrow’s latest bid, worth A$7.21 a share at yesterday’s close.

“Of course that value equation will change at some level of bid,” he said in a briefing document sent to the exchange.

Pure is exploring for coal-seam gas, which mostly comprises methane on the surface of coal. BG, Shell, Malaysia’s Petroliam Nasional Bhd. and ConocoPhillips are among the companies in five rival ventures planning to convert coal-seam gas into LNG for export to Asia, the biggest market for the fuel.

ConocoPhillips, Petronas

BG said last week it’s seeking to bring forward approval of an investment of more than A$8 billion in its Australian LNG project as demand growth outstrips new capacity. Accelerating the plant would allow it to start production before rival ventures planned by Santos Ltd. with Petronas, and by ConocoPhillips with Origin Energy Ltd.

BG is relying on its planned Queensland Curtis LNG project in northeastern Australia to boost LNG supplies by almost 60 percent by 2015 to become the world’s third-biggest producer, Chief Executive Officer Frank Chapman said Feb. 6. Global demand for the fuel is set to more than double by 2020, he said.

Beating Arrow for Pure Energy may also block Arrow’s plans to develop a smaller LNG plant with Liquefied Natural Gas Ltd. that is scheduled to start production even earlier, Citigroup Inc. said in a Feb. 9 report.

Coal-seam gas, which can be extracted when pressure on the coal seams is reduced, usually by removing water, hasn’t previously been used as a fuel for LNG export projects.

BG’s ‘Imperative’

BG probably needs Pure Energy more than Arrow does, Credit Suisse’s Williams said today in a report.

“We see BG with a stronger imperative for success in the Pure Energy bidding situation and certainly with more cash resources to be successful,” he said. “Them that control the gas have the market power.”

In terms of reserves, BG is bidding 40 Australian cents a gigajoule for Pure, still less than the 72 cents a gigajoule it paid for Queensland Gas Co. in October. BG’s A$5.2 billion purchase of the rest of Queensland Gas, its partner in its Australian LNG venture, followed a failed A$13.5 billion offer earlier in the year for Origin Energy Ltd., Australia’s biggest producer of gas from coal seams, which attracted an A$8 billion investment from ConocoPhillips.

Australia’s Foreign Investment Review Board has advised it has no objections to the bid from BG, which today said its offer is unconditional.

Arrow’s bid, of A$3 in cash and 1.57 shares for each Pure share, is also unconditional. Arrow is Pure’s biggest shareholder, with a stake of 19.9 percent, while BG owns 9.7 percent.

LNG is natural gas chilled to liquid form for transport by tanker to destinations not connected by pipeline.

To contact the reporter on this story: Angela Macdonald-Smith in Sydney at amacdonaldsm@bloomberg.net





Read more...

Crude Oil Falls Below $37 on Slowing Global Demand for Fuels

By Gavin Evans and Christian Schmollinger

Feb. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil fell below $37 a barrel in New York on speculation a deepening recession in Europe and Asia will stifle demand for fuels.

Brent crude, a benchmark for European, Africa and Russian grades, slumped to a three-week low yesterday after U.K. bank stocks dropped and the Bank of England said the economy’s first quarter contraction may match last quarter’s 1.5 percent decline. Japan, the world’s third-largest oil consumer, yesterday said its economy shrank the most since 1974 in the fourth quarter.

“The market data from the U.S. and the other major economies is not painting a picture of an imminent recovery,” said Toby Hassall, research analyst at Commodity Warrants Australia Pty in Sydney. “The Japanese data was pretty bad.”

Crude oil for March delivery traded at $36.75 a barrel, down 76 cents from the Feb. 13 close, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 12:47 p.m. in Singapore. Floor trading was closed for the Presidents’ Day holiday in the U.S. and yesterday’s transactions will be booked today for settlement.

The March Nymex oil contract expires on Feb. 20. The more actively traded April contract was at $41.30 today, down 67 cents from last week’s close.

The price of oil for delivery in April is $4.42 a barrel higher than for March, the so-called prompt month contract, after reaching as much as $8.19 a barrel on Feb. 12. This structure, in which the future month’s price is higher than the one before it, is known as contango, allowing buyers to profit from hoarding oil.

‘Crude Untradeable’

“By now it should be clear to everyone out there that spot Nymex crude is untradeable,” said Stephen Schork, president of the Schork Group Inc. in a report today. “What we have witnessed over the last month in the Nymex March-April market is not reasonable and it is not reflective of underlying fundamentals.”

The build in supplies at Cushing, Oklahoma, where West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark grade, is stored, has contributed to the contango. Inventories there climbed 1.7 percent to 34.9 million barrels last week, the Energy Department said on Feb. 11. It was the highest since at least April 2004, when the department began keeping records for the location.

Brent crude for April settlement rose 62 cents, or 1.4 percent, to $43.90 a barrel on London’s ICE Futures Europe exchange at 12:47 p.m. Singapore time. It slumped 3.4 percent yesterday as the U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index fell to a two-week low, led by Lloyds Bank Plc.

Falling Demand

Consumer prices in the U.S. probably posted their first annual decline since 1955 and new home construction fell further in January, economists said before reports this week.

The U.K. economy will probably shrink 3.3 percent in 2009, up from the 1.7 percent decline predicted in November, the Confederation of British Industry said yesterday. The nation is headed for its worst recession in almost 30 years.

World oil demand may not rebound until 2010, when it may begin rising by about 1 percent a year through 2013, International Energy Agency Executive Director Nobuo Tanaka said in London yesterday.

Production cuts by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and cold weather are helping rebalance the oil market, bringing the low point for prices closer than previously expected, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts said yesterday.

“As a result, the bottoming in prices and time spreads could be closer than we originally expected,” Goldman analysts including Giovanni Serio and Jeffrey Currie said in a report.

New York crude oil fell to $32.40 a barrel on Dec. 19, the lowest for the front-month contract since February 2004.

To contact the reporter on this story: Gavin Evans in Wellington at gavinevans@bloomberg.net; Christian Schmollinger in Singapore at christian.s@bloomberg.net.





Read more...

Japan Economy Goes From Best to Worst on Export Slump, Yen Gain

By Jason Clenfield

Feb. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Japan’s economy, only months ago forecast to be the best performing among the world’s most advanced nations, has become the worst.

Gross domestic product shrank an annualized 12.7 percent last quarter, the Cabinet Office said yesterday. The contraction was the most severe since the 1974 oil crisis and twice as bad as those in Europe or the U.S.

The credit crisis that crippled the U.S. financial system may have also knocked out the props that supported Japanese growth between 2002 and 2007: a U.S. consumer-spending bubble and a cheap yen. The speed of the deterioration has taken companies by surprise: Toyota Motor Corp. this month forecast a 450 billion yen ($4.9 billion) loss, reversing a November estimate it would make 550 billion yen.

“We thought this would be a cyclical slowdown for the Japanese economy,” said Glenn Maguire, chief Asia economist at Societe Generale SA in Hong Kong. “It’s now clearly a structural one. Eventually we should see some stabilization in consumption globally, but there just won’t be the same” willingness to fund spending by taking on debt, he said.

The International Monetary Fund last month forecast Japan’s economy would shrink 2.6 percent in 2009, versus contractions of 1.6 percent and 2 percent in the U.S. and Europe. In November, the fund predicted Japan would outpace its rivals.

Since then, industrial production plunged at the steepest pace in 55 years in the fourth quarter, and unemployment rose at the fastest rate in 41 years in December. Panasonic Corp., Pioneer Corp., Nissan Motor Co. and NEC Corp. announced a combined 65,000 job cuts in the past month.

‘Devastating Effects’

The end of easy credit in the U.S. will lead to a “quantum downward shift” in consumer spending in the world’s largest economy that may have long-term and devastating effects on economies that have relied on it, according to Allen Sinai, chief global economist at Decision Economics Inc. in New York. Exporters Toyota and Canon Inc. get more than a third of their sales in North America.

“Companies that planned their businesses around the idea that U.S. consumer spending would grow by 3 percent per year, as it has for decades, are in for a shock,” said Sinai, who spoke in an interview in Tokyo after he briefed Japan’s biggest business lobby, Keidanren, on the U.S. outlook.

Investment in production capacity in the six years through 2007, when Japan enjoyed its longest post-World War II period of growth, may have saddled manufacturers with factories and workers they no longer need. Toyota, which has forecast its first loss in seven decades, will slash domestic production by half this quarter.

Excess Capacity

“Manufacturers have been left with big structural excesses in capacity that need to be worked out,” said Hiroshi Shiraishi, an economist at BNP Paribas in Tokyo. “It’ll take years.”

The second blight on the economy is the surge in the yen. Japan’s currency has traded at an average of about 90 per dollar so far this quarter, up 22 percent from the average of about 115 during the six-year expansion that ended in 2007.

The yen jumped as investors reduced so-called carry trades, where they borrowed in the currency to invest in nations where interest rates exceeded Japan’s, which have been at or below 0.5 percent since 1995.

“Where Japan stands out is the fact that we’ve got the hot currency,” said Jesper Koll, Tokyo-based chief executive officer at hedge fund TRJ Tantallon Research Japan. “Where I’m different from Germany, from Korea, from China, from America is my currency, the yen, has appreciated against everything in the universe.”

‘Weak Yen Bubble’

The bursting of what Eisuke Sakakibara, former top currency official at the Ministry of Finance calls a “weak yen bubble” could make it unprofitable for many manufacturers to keep making cars and electronics at home. Toshiba Corp., which is forecasting a record $3.1 billion loss, says it will postpone building two domestic chip factories. The company may send some production to Southeast Asia to cut costs, according to the Asahi Newspaper.

“The very sharp adjustment of the yen toward fair value has made as lot of the capacity that has been put in place over the recovery simply redundant,” said Maguire at Societe Generale. “A lot of the production that’s occurring in Japan is just no longer economically viable.”

To be sure, decisions by companies to cut production and sack workers may mean they will be in better shape once demand recovers, according to Tetsuro Sugiura, chief economist at Mizuho Research Institute in Tokyo.

During the so-called lost decade that followed the bursting of Japan’s stock and property bubbles in the early 1990s, companies were slow to cut production and sack workers.

“The situation isn’t as bad as it looks,” said Sugiura. “Companies are saying that, while the downturn is severe, they can survive. They’re adjusting very, very quickly.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Jason Clenfield in Tokyo at jclenfield@bloomberg.net





Read more...

Euro Drops to 10-Week Low on Concern Europe’s Turmoil to Worsen

By Yasuhiko Seki and Ron Harui

Feb. 17 (Bloomberg) -- The euro fell to a 10-week low against the dollar after Moody’s Investors Service said it may downgrade a number of banks with units in Eastern Europe, adding to concern financial turmoil in the region is worsening.

The euro also weakened against 14 of the 16 major currencies on speculation its recent declines triggered the execution of automatic sell orders. The yen dropped to a five- week low against the dollar after Japan’s Finance Minister Shoichi Nakagawa said today he would resign after budget bills are passed in the nation’s parliament.

“The financial turbulence in central and Eastern Europe is likely to persist,” said Masafumi Yamamoto, head of foreign- exchange strategy for Japan at Royal Bank of Scotland Plc in Tokyo and a former Bank of Japan currency trader. “The markets may perceive this as a factor to sell the euro.”

The euro declined to $1.2645 as of 1:39 p.m. in Tokyo, from $1.2801 late yesterday in New York. It touched $1.2633, the lowest since Dec. 5. The European currency dropped to 117.02 yen from 117.46 yesterday. The dollar rose to 92.53 yen from 91.73 yesterday, after touching 92.75 yen, the lowest since Jan. 8.

Nakagawa’s decision to resign comes after television footage showed him slurring his speech at a briefing following the Group of Seven meeting of finance ministers and central bankers in Rome on Feb. 14. The resignation is a setback to Prime Minister Taro Aso, whose approval rating has slid to the second lowest on record for a leader.

Japan Concern

“Nakagawa’s resignation seems to be spurring concern over the world’s second-largest economy,” said Osamu Takashima, chief analyst for global market sales and trading in Tokyo at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd., a unit of Japan’s largest publicly listed lender. “The market is short the dollar and long the yen, so there’s a bias to buy back the U.S. currency and sell Japan’s.”

The yen may fall to 93 per dollar today, Takashima said.

East European banks, which are mainly subsidiaries of financial institutions such as Raiffeisen Zentralbank Oesterreich AG and Swedbank AB, are likely to come under “downward pressure” which may also weaken their parent companies, Moody’s wrote in a report released today in London.

West European banks might become selective in supporting their subsidiaries and “banks in countries that are associated with higher systemic risks might face reduced support,” Moody’s said. Western governments may also establish rules to ensure banks receiving state support do not aid foreign subsidiaries, the company said.

Dollar Gains

The Moody’s report “helped push euro down below 1.27 and accelerated dollar gains across the board,” said Callum Henderson, head of global currency strategy at Standard Chartered in Singapore. The euro needs to find support at $1.2330, the weakest since April 2006, which it touched in October, he said.

The euro’s decline against the dollar and the yen accelerated after stop losses on investors’ long positions on the currency were activated, said Lee Wai Tuck, a currency strategist at Forecast Pte in Singapore.

“The stop losses were probably around $1.2720 and $1.2700 in euro-dollar and about 116.80 in euro-yen,” Lee said. A stop loss is an automatic instruction to sell a currency should it reach a particular level. A long position is a bet that an asset will rise.

British Pound

The pound dropped on concern a U.K. report today will show inflation slowed due to the economic slump, giving the Bank of England more room to cut interest rates. The Office for National Statistics may say consumer prices rose 2.7 percent in January from a year earlier, compared with 3.1 percent the previous month, according to a Bloomberg News survey.

The report comes after the Confederation of British Industry said yesterday that gross domestic product will shrink 3.3 percent in 2009, the most in almost 30 years, instead of the 1.7 percent predicted in November.

“Spreading economic woes in greater Europe, which also enhances expectations for more rate cuts there, may send the pound to a year-to-date-low of $1.350,” said Shigeru Nakane, a foreign-exchange dealer at Resona Bank Ltd., a unit of Japan’s fourth-largest banking group.

Buying Treasuries

The dollar also rose toward a five-week high against the yen on speculation Japanese investors will seek the relative safety of U.S. Treasuries amid increasing signs the word’s second-largest economy is faring worse than the U.S.

A Japanese government report yesterday showed the economy shrank 3.3 percent last quarter from the previous three months, compared with the U.S.’s 1 percent contraction. A separate report last week showed Japan’s current-account surplus narrowed by the most in at least 23 years in December, diminishing the appeal of the yen as a haven currency.

“The severe downturn may induce Japanese investors to put their money into Treasuries as a haven,” said Tsutomu Soma, a bond and currency dealer at Okasan Securities Co. in Tokyo. “The dollar will probably be bought.”

Treasuries rose, extending last week’s gains. The yield on the benchmark 10-year note fell nine basis points to 2.81 percent, according to BGCantor Market Data. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.

To contact the reporter on this story: Ron Harui in Singapore at rharui@bloomberg.net.



Read more...

Korea Bank Funding Costs Rise to Record on Woori Woes

By Kim Kyoungwha

Feb. 17 (Bloomberg) -- The cost for South Korean banks to borrow dollars in the swap market rose to a record after Woori Bank decided not to redeem $400 million in bonds and sought $1.4 billion in state funding.

Moody’s Investors Service said on Feb. 13 that the lender’s decision not to exercise an option for early repayment of 2014 debt will roil investors, who expect borrowers to repay callable securities at the first opportunity. Woori, South Korea’s second-biggest bank, plans to raise more than 2 trillion won ($1.4 billion) from a state-backed recapitalization fund.

“The actions of Woori will make it more difficult for commercial banks to access the international markets,” said Jason Rogers, credit analyst with Barclays Bank Plc in Singapore.

South Korea has as much as $160 billion of external debt maturing over the next two years, compared with national foreign-exchange reserves that shrank 23 percent in the past year to $200 billion, according to UBS AG, the world’s second- largest currency trader. Financial Services Commission Vice Chairman Rhee Chang Yong said Feb. 5 that banks still face difficulties obtaining U.S. currency.

The one-year cross-currency swap rate on the won slumped to a record minus 1.6 percent today from minus 1.3 percent yesterday, before trading at minus 1.1 percent. The gauge of availability of dollar funding, which averaged 3.3 percent last year before Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. collapsed, may decline to minus 2 percent by March, said Choi Seok Won, head of research with Samsung Securities Co. A minus figure shows borrowers of dollars need to make interest payments.

“We see no sign of an end to global crisis,” Choi said. “Banks, companies and state agencies are finding it harder to get dollar funding.”

European Banks

Moody’s last week cut credit ratings for Kookmin Bank, the nation’s biggest lender, and seven other South Korean lenders, citing their dependence on the government for foreign-currency funding. Banks in Australia, Sweden and eastern Europe are also in trouble as economies in the region deteriorate, it wrote in a report released today in London.

In a cross-currency swap, investors pay or receive a variable interest rate in one currency in exchange for a fixed rate in another currency. In Korea, local banks typically pay a fixed rate in won in exchange for a floating rate in dollars.

The Bank of Korea, which has extended banks $16.35 billion of the $30 billion swap deal with the Federal Reserve, auctioned off $2 billion, using the nation’s currency reserves today, the central bank said. The outcome of the sale was announced on the bank’s Web site.

“The funding situation for longer-term borrowing is getting worse as banks are increasingly tapping swap markets to secure funds,” said Kang Soo Jong, a swap trader with Shinhan Bank in Seoul. “Loans and bonds are difficult to get.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Kim Kyoungwha in Beijing at kkim19@bloomberg.net;





Read more...

Australian, N.Z. Dollars Slide on RBA Minutes, Europe Concerns

By Candice Zachariahs

Feb. 17 (Bloomberg) -- The Australian dollar slid as the central bank said record-low interest rates will take time to revive economic growth and the euro dropped to a 2 1/2-month low, raising speculation investors will dump higher-yielding assets.

The New Zealand dollar also fell as Moody’s Investors Service said Austrian, Swedish and other banks with subsidiaries in eastern Europe may face rating downgrades. Bonds in Australia rallied, signaling renewed concerns over global growth may erode the yield premium Australia and New Zealand offer investors who buy the two nations’ assets with low-cost funds.

“Anything which is a higher-risk currency or relies on yield to provide support is going to be under steep pressure,” said Greg Gibbs, director of foreign-exchange strategy at ABN Amro Australia Ltd. in Sydney. The Australian currency is in “real trouble of heading sharply lower” and could slide towards low as 62.50 cents, Gibbs said.

Australia’s currency fell 0.6 percent to 64.54 U.S. cents as of 1:11 p.m. in Sydney from late in Asia yesterday. The currency slipped 0.2 percent to 59.48 yen. New Zealand’s dollar declined 1.1 percent to 51.35 cents and 0.7 percent to 47.31 yen.

The Moody’s report helped push the euro below $1.27, the lowest since Dec. 5, and “accelerated dollar gains across the board,” said Callum Henderson, head of global currency strategy at Standard Chartered in Singapore.

‘Modest Effect’

The RBA said interest-rate cuts and a A$42 billion ($27 billion) government stimulus plan will have “only a modest effect on the near-term,” suggesting concern the economy may stagnate, in minutes of its Feb. 3 meeting, released in Sydney today. Stimulus measures should be “conducive to stronger demand later in the year,” the central bank said.

The central bank reduced interest rates 1 percentage point in February, taking its total cuts to 4 percentage points since early September. Traders are betting on a 48 percent chance of a three-quarter percentage point cut when the bank meets in March, up from a 16 percent chance yesterday.

“The market recognizes that the Australian economy’s fortunes are not completely in the government and central bank’s control,” said Jonathan Cavenagh, a currency strategist at Westpac Banking Corp. in Sydney. “At the margin these minutes should be supportive for the Australian dollar, but it’s still at the whim of what’s happening globally with commodities and risk aversion.”

Australian government bonds rose, pushing down the yield on the two-year note by 11 basis points, or 0.11 percentage point, to 2.74 percent. Yields on the 10-year note fell eight basis points to 4.31 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The price of the 5.25 percent security due March 2019 advanced 0.640, or A$6.40 per A$1,000 face amount, to 107.616.

New Zealand’s two-year swap rate, a fixed payment made to receive floating rates, fell to 3.28 percent from 3.34 yesterday.

To contact the reporter on this story: Candice Zachariahs in Sydney at czachariahs2@bloomberg.net.





Read more...

China H Shares to Cut A-Share Gap, Credit Suisse Says

By Chen Shiyin

Feb. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Chinese stocks in Hong Kong will narrow the valuation gap with mainland-traded shares as stronger-than-expected economic growth spurs demand for the nation’s equities, Credit Suisse Group said.

Shares on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges are currently trading at a 50 percent premium to their peers in Hong Kong, more than the 31 percent average since 2006, Credit Suisse’s Hong Kong-based analysts Vincent Chan and Peggy Chan wrote in a Feb. 16 report. They advised investors to buy H shares, saying that the MSCI China Index may rise to 50.8 by the end of the year, a 29 percent increase from yesterday’s close.

The Shanghai Composite Index has gained 31 percent this year, the best performer among the 90 global benchmarks tracked by Bloomberg on speculation the government will add to a 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) stimulus package. The MSCI China Index has retreated 3.6 percent during the same period.

“China’s economic growth in 2009 will be stronger than the consensus market forecast, which should prove a pleasant surprise for the market,” the analysts wrote. “The market cap to GDP for China is not particularly high, so we believe the valuation gap closure will be due mainly to rising H share prices.”

China’s economy will probably grow 8 percent this year, compared with a 6.7 percent projection by the International Monetary Fund, the Credit Suisse analysts estimated.

A Share Premium

The Hang Seng China AH Premium Index, which tracks the premium of A shares to H shares, climbed to 160.50 yesterday, the highest since Nov. 20. That’s still lower than the peak of 208.06 reached on Jan. 16, 2008.

“The huge valuation gap between A and H shares usually emerges during a big bull market for the A share market and in our view it is too far-fetched to assume we will see a big bull market for either A or H shares in 2009,” the analysts wrote.

The brokerage estimates that the Shanghai A Share Index may end the year at 1,808.8, a 28 percent retreat from yesterday’s close, according to the report.

Investors should consider buying shares of Chinese stocks in the mainland that are trading at premium of less than 30 percent to their H shares, the analysts advised. These include Anhui Conch Cement Co., China’s largest construction material producer, and Ping An Insurance (Group) Co., the country’s second-biggest insurer, the report said.

Anhui Conch’s A shares trade at a discount of 1.9 percent compared with the company’s H shares, while Ping An’s are valued at a 4.9 percent premium to the Hong Kong-listed shares, according to Credit Suisse.

Changsha Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science & Technology Development Co., Guangxi Liugong Machinery Co. and Luzhou Laojiao Co. are also among A shares recommended by Credit Suisse, the report said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Chen Shiyin in Singapore at schen37@bloomberg.net.





Read more...

China’s Stock Index Falls Most in a Month; Jiangxi Copper Drops

By Zhang Shidong

Feb. 17 (Bloomberg) -- China’s stocks fell the most in a month, led by Jiangxi Copper Co. and Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd. after metals prices declined on speculation a recovery in demand may be delayed beyond the second half.

Jiangxi Copper, China’s second-biggest producer of the metal, lost 2.6 percent, while Aluminum Corp., the nation’s biggest maker of the lightweight metal, retreated 2.5 percent. Copper for delivery in three months dropped 2.9 percent to $3,330 a metric ton at 5:17 p.m. on the London Metal Exchange. Aluminum fell $27 to $1,350 a ton.

The Shanghai Composite Index, which tracks the bigger of China’s stock exchanges, declined 22.94, or 1 percent, to 2,366.45 as of 10:05 a.m. local time. It rose 6.3 percent over the past two days, the biggest two-day gain since Jan. 6. The CSI 300 Index, measuring exchanges in Shanghai and Shenzhen, dropped 1.3 percent to 2,430.96.

Kweichow Moutai Co., the maker of Moutai, the fiery liquor used at official banquets, advanced 3.4 percent after Shenyin & Wanguo Securities Co. advised investors to buy the stock, on expectation first-quarter profit will top estimates.

China Oilfield Services Ltd., the drilling unit of the nation’s third-largest oil producer, added 4.2 percent, the second day of advance after state-owned China National Petroleum Corp. said yesterday the nation may set up an oil fund to boost exploration.

The Shanghai Composite has gained 30 percent this year, the most among 90 stock gauges worldwide tracked by Bloomberg, as the government unveiled plans to support industries from shipbuilding to textiles. It now trades at 18.7 times earnings, compared with 49 times at the peak.

The gauge is still down 69 percent from its record of 6,092.06 reached on Oct. 16, 2007. Share prices tumbled last year as the global recession curbed demand for the nation’s exports and industrial productions shrank.

To contact the reporter on this story: Zhang Shidong in Shanghai at szhang5@bloomberg.net





Read more...

Japan Stocks Drop Toward 4-Month Low as Property Concern Mounts

By Masaki Kondo

Feb. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese stocks fell to a near four- month low on speculation dwindling property demand will drive more developers to bankruptcy and increase bad loans at banks.

Mitsui Fudosan Co. and Mitsubishi Estate Co., the nation’s biggest developers, lost more than 5 percent after builders put fewer condominiums up for sale and the cost of protecting Japanese corporate bonds from default jumped to a record. Chuo Mitsui Trust Holdings Inc. led banks lower with a 4.2 percent drop. Bridgestone Corp., the world’s No. 1 tiremaker, climbed 3.8 percent after Credit Suisse Group raised it to “outperform.”

“With falling rents and rising vacancies, real estate companies’ earnings will remain under heavy pressure,” said Kiyoshi Ishigane, a Tokyo-based senior strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Asset Management Co., which oversees about $61 billion. “More failures among these businesses will increase bad-loan costs for domestic banks.”

The Nikkei 225 Stock Average declined 108.48, or 1.4 percent, to 7,641.69 as of 12:43 p.m. in Tokyo, while the broader Topix index fell 12.03, or 1.6 percent, to 758.07. The gauges were poised for the lowest close since Oct. 28 and Oct. 27 respectively. The U.S. market was closed yesterday for a holiday.

The Nikkei has lost 14 percent this year on concern government and central bank measures to counter a global recession won’t be enough to reignite spending and lending. More than two-thirds of the gauge’s members trade below book value, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Mitsui Fudosan dived 6.6 percent to 1,088 yen, extending its slump to a fourth day, while smaller rival Mitsubishi Estate sank 5.5 percent to 1,084 yen. Sumitomo Realty & Development Co., Japan’s No. 3 property company, fell 5.5 percent to 994 yen.

Rising Bankruptcies

Developers added 1,760 new condominium units to the market in January, 24 percent fewer than a year earlier, the 17th consecutive month of declines, the Tokyo-based Real Estate Economic Research Institute said yesterday. Bankruptcies among Japan’s listed companies reached 33 last year, an annual postwar record, according to Tokyo Shoko Research Ltd. Eight more have gone bust this year, with half of them in the property sector.

Chuo Mitsui dropped 4.2 percent to 296 yen, while Mizuho Financial Group Inc., which posted a second-straight quarterly loss on rising bad loans, slumped 3.9 percent to 200 yen. Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc., Japan’s No. 3 listed bank, slid 3.3 percent to 3,250 yen. Banks contributed the most to the Topix’s retreat.

Default Risk

The Markit iTraxx Japan index of 50 investment-grade borrowers rose 40 basis points to 560 as of 10:45 a.m. in Tokyo, according to BNP Paribas SA prices. Credit-default swap indexes are benchmarks for protecting bonds against default and traders use them to speculate on changes in credit quality.

Aruze Corp. plunged 12 percent to 668 yen, the lowest since September 1998, after the maker of pachinko machines reversed its full-year forecast to a net loss and canceled its dividend. Pilot Corp. plunged 12 percent to 113,800 yen, the sharpest drop since Nov. 11, after the pen and pencil maker said annual net income fell 57 percent short of its forecast.

Bridgestone jumped 3.8 percent to 1,331 yen. Credit Suisse lifted its rating on the stock from “neutral,” saying tiremakers are the only makers of auto parts that can achieve profit gains in the fiscal year beginning in April.

Nikkei futures expiring in March retreated 1.2 percent to 7,630 in Osaka and slumped 1.4 percent to 7,630 in Singapore.

To contact the reporter for this story: Masaki Kondo in Tokyo at mkondo3@bloomberg.net.





Read more...

Asian Stocks, U.S. Futures Fall on Economy Concern; Hynix Drops

By Patrick Rial

Feb. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks slumped, dragging the benchmark index down by the most in three weeks, and U.S. futures fell on concern the deepening global recession will drive up funding costs and hurt trade. Treasuries gained.

Woori Finance Holdings Co., which yesterday applied for state funding, dropped 4.1 percent as the cost for South Korean banks to borrow dollars rose to a record. T&D Holdings Inc., Japan’s largest publicly traded life insurer, plunged 8.5 percent as the Australian unit of Axa SA reported a loss and said markets remain “challenging.” Hynix Semiconductor Inc. lost 4.8 percent after JPMorgan Chase & Co. said memory-chip prices will fall and downgraded the stock to “underweight.”

“We are living in extraordinary times with the severe dislocation and losses in investment markets over the last 12 months,” said Andrew Penn, Chief Executive Officer at Axa Asia Pacific Holdings Ltd.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined 2.6 percent to 79.11 as of 1:16 p.m. in Tokyo. Eight stocks dropped for each that advanced on the measure, which fell the most since Jan. 23. The gauge has lost 12 percent this year, extending 2008’s record 43 percent tumble, as the credit crisis dragged the world’s biggest economies into recession.

The Nikkei 225 Stock Average lost 1.6 percent to 7,629.81, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index slumped 3 percent. All Asian markets declined.

Brambles Ltd., the world’s biggest supplier of pallets, tumbled 14 percent in Sydney on brokerage downgrades. Also in Australia, papermaker Paperlinx Ltd. almost doubled after agreeing to sell a unit, and OZ Minerals Ltd. jumped 17 percent after receiving a takeover bid from China Minmetals Corp.

Insurers Slump

Futures on the U.S. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 1.6 percent. Stocks there resume trading today after a holiday yesterday. Treasuries rose, dragging yields on 10-year notes down by eight basis points, as renewed concerns about the global economy prompted investors to seek safer assets.

“Sentiment in the market is still a little bit fragile,” said Khiem Do, a Hong Kong-based strategist for Baring Asset Management (Asia) Ltd., which oversees $6 billion. “The global trade data will continue to be weak because most economies are forecasting a recession this year.”

A gauge of finance companies on MSCI’s Asian index dropped 3.5 percent, the most of 10 industry groups. The finance measure is the worst performer in the past 12 months as the credit crisis caused losses at institutions worldwide to swell to more than $1 trillion.

Government Aid

Stocks have fallen in the past year as the world’s largest economies sank into recession, dragging the average valuation of companies on MSCI Asian gauge down by 10 percent to 13 times reported profit.

Woori retreated 4.1 percent to 6,740 won. The bank said yesterday it plans to raise more than 2 trillion won ($1.4 billion) from a state-backed recapitalization fund as the nation’s slowing economy pushes bad loans higher.

Shinhan Financial Group Co., which controls the third- largest bank in South Korea, lost 4 percent to 25,200 won. KB Financial Group Inc., the holding company for Kookmin Bank, lost 4.5 percent to 30,700 yen.

The one-year cross-currency swap rate on the won slumped to a record minus 1.6 percent today from minus 1.3 percent yesterday, before trading at minus 1.1 percent. A minus figure shows borrowers of dollars need to make interest payments.

Declines by Asian insurers followed an 11 percent drop yesterday by the U.K.’s Legal & General Group Plc, amid speculation the 173-year-old British insurer may have to cut its dividend to boost capital reserves. The U.K.’s Financial Services Authority yesterday asked the industry to assess how well they can withstand market shocks.

Insurers Tumble

T&D slumped 9.7 percent to 2,010 yen. The stock was downgraded to “underweight” from “neutral” by HSBC Holdings Plc on Feb. 13 due to the falling value of investment securities.

Axa Asia Pacific, a unit of France’s biggest insurer, fell 7.8 percent to A$3.78 in Sydney after reporting a A$372.9 million ($242 million) loss for the six months ended Dec. 31.

“It seems unlikely that the environment will improve in the short term such that 2009 will also be challenging for our industry,” CEO Penn said.

Hynix, the world’s second-largest computer-memory chipmaker, retreated 5.9 percent to 8,420 won. The stock was slashed to “underweight” from “neutral” by J.J. Park at JPMorgan on the view that demand for memory won’t recover in the second half of this year, pushing prices lower even as companies cut supply.

Elpida Memory Inc., Japan’s largest memory chipmaker, plummeted 11 percent to 586 yen. Samsung Electronics Co., the world’s biggest, lost 2.8 percent to 490,000 won.

Takeover Offer

Brambles tumbled 14 percent to A$4.85. The stock was downgraded at Bank of America, JPMorgan and Macquarie Group Ltd. a day after the company reported a 28 percent decline in first- half profit.

Paperlinx soared 97 percent to 64 cents. Nippon Paper Group Inc., Japan’s second-largest papermaker, agreed to acquire Paperlinx’s Australian manufacturing unit for A$600 million to expand outside its shrinking domestic market.

OZ Minerals, the world’s second-largest zinc mining company, rallied 17 percent to 64.5 cents in Sydney after a A$2.6 billion takeover bid from China Minmetals Corp. The stock had not traded since Nov. 27. State-owned Minmetals agreed to pay 82.5 cents a share for OZ Mineral.

To contact the reporters for this story: Patrick Rial in Tokyo at prial@bloomberg.net.





Read more...

Monday, February 16, 2009

European Market Update

Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by Trade The News | Feb 16 09 11:16 GMT |

European sovereign spreads rise on Eastern European concerns; Russian Industrial Production slumps

ECONOMIC DATA

(SP) Swedish Dec House Transactions: -26.0 % v -35.6% prior

(SW) Swedish Jan Avg House Prices: SEK1.924M v SEK1.789M prior

(NO) Norwegian Jan Trade Balance: NOK v NOK28.9Be

(TU) Turkey Jan Consumer Confidence: 71.6 v 69.9 prior

(TU) Turkey Nov Unemployment Rate: 12.3% v 10.9% prior, highest since 2005

(HU) Hungary Dec Final Industrial Output M/M: -15.1% v -14.6% prior; Y/Y: -23.3% v -23.3% prior

(RU) Russia Industrial Production M/M: -19.9% v 3.8% prior; Y/Y: -16.0% v 12.0%e

SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM

Equities: || Roche [ROG.SZ] Reportedly says Pegasys shows positive results in Hepatitis B patients || Hennes & Mauritz [HMB.SW] Reported Jan SSS -1% v -2.8%e || TNT [TNT.NV] Reported Q4 Net €207M versus expectations of €163Me. , Rev €2.93B v €3.02B consensus. It expected revenues to decline in 2009 as drop mail volumes to fall || Lloyds [LLOY.UK] UK Treasury Timms stated in a BBC interview that the UK was not considering nationalization of Lloyds at this time || Air France [AF.FR] Air France confirmed press speculation that it would postpone taking delivery of new planes by 2-3 years . the company stated that it was not canceling any orders and continued to expect delivery of A380 by the end of 2009

Speakers: China President Hu stated that the economic crisis was deepening || ECB's Tumpel-Gugerell stated that it encountered a significant economic slump in Q4. However, added that interest rate cuts enacted since since Oct have had a 'positive effect'. Noted that much has changed' since ECB issued 1% forecast for 2010 and noted that the ECB was currently reviewing 2009/10 forecasts || India to end fiscal 2008/09 with revenue deficit of INR2.41T; tax shortfall after steps to counter economic slowdown. Fiscal deficit had risen to 6% of GDP in 2008/09 from a planned 2.5%. || PBoC Advisor Fan: Policies should concentrate on reducing savings rate || Czech Fin Min confirmed economic stimulus package valued around CZK79B or 1.9% of GDP || German Bank Association stated that German GDP to fall 'at least' until summer 2009 noting that indicators suggest a significant drop in Q1 || Japan Fin Min Nakagawa denied that he will step down after meeting || China PBoC Advisor Fan stated that policies should concentrate on reducing savings rate. He noted that falling demand was driving down prices of commodities and that deflation might also hurt earnings of Chinese companies. On the bright side, he observed that falling prices to help increase consumption || Russia Fin Min Kudrin stated that no decision on budget has been made at this time and added that negotiations remained difficult. Looking to cut capex programs like construction || Japan MoF's Sugimoto commented that there were no current plans to seek further economic stimulus measures || German DIW Institute Revised lower its expectations for German GDP data. It now saw Q1 GDP down 1.4% compared to 0.8% contraction. For 2009 it forecasted that GDP would drop 'over' 3% y/y versus its prior view of a 1.1% contraction. ||

In Currencies: The EUR/USD remained in its 1.27 to 1.31 consolidation range but probed the lower end in the aftermath of the G7 summit. Dealers attribute the softer Euro to weekend press articles of potential sovereign debt defaults and Eastern European woes (See out Credit Crisis section for more details). Eastern European currencies were softer. The Hungarian forint edged down to a new multi-year against the US

dollar after its industrial production data and the Czech Krouna slumped to multi-year lows as well. Dealers noting that a break of 1.27 in EUR/USD sets up for a test of the 1.23 level with some FX chartist noting a potential steeper decline towards the 1.10 area. || The JPY was modestly softer during the European session against the majors with USD/JPY holding below the 92 level and EUR/JPY sustaining gains above the 117 area. || RBA's Ryan: Decline in AUD is entirely appropriate ||

In fixed income Gilts have broadly tracked UK financial sector equity prices, reversing early weakness and moving into positive territory after a UK Treasury minister stated that nationalization of Lloyd's was not under consideration. This strength has spilled over into Germany with Bund futures touching February highs and approaching the 125 handle seen as a key level of technical resistance by traders. European perhiperal debt markets have come under renewed pressure after weekend reports in UK the press highlighted the challenges facing Ireland and Eastern Europe. The yield on the Spanish 10y is approaching a record high of 130bps over Bunds, the Irish 10y is back through 250bps over Bunds and the Greek 10y back through 290bps over bunds. In supply, Slovakia sold €40B in 2015 floating rate notes with the acution covered 13 times.

In Energy: IEA's Tanaka commented that oil demand was expected to pick up in 2010 and warned OPEC on further supply cuts. He saw 2010 global oil demand rebounding +1M bpd. He added that a possible supply crunch could occur by 2013 if economy begins recovering in 2010

Credit Crisis: London Times reported that fears are mounting in which Ireland could default on its national debt. the article noted how the cost of buying insurance against Irish government bonds rose to record highs last Friday and the debt-market investors now rank Ireland as the most troubled economy in Europe. || Telegraph's Ambrose Evans-Pritchard noted that the failure to save East Europe would lead to a global meltdown. The article noted that Eastern Europe has borrowed $1.7T abroad, of which at least $400B is due to be refinanced in 2009 and commented that up to 60% of Polish mortgages were denominated in CHF. According to the article Russia 'has held 36% of its foreign reserves since August defending the Ruble' in what amounts to the largest run on a currency in history ||

NOTES

The US market is closed for Presidents' Day. The weekend G7 summit produced no details in the G7 plan to combat global recession. The Chinese President commented that the economic crisis was worsening. The Japanese Q4 annualized GDP came in at -12.7%, the largest contraction since the 1974 oil embargo.

Looking Ahead:

US Markets closed for President Day holiday

8:30 (CA) Canadian Dec Manufacturing Shipments M/M: -5.3% expected v -6.4% prior

8:30 (CA) Canadian Dec International Securities Transactions: -C$1.4B expected v -C$4.3B prior

9:00 (UK) Bank of England's Bean speaks in Birmingham

9:40 (US) Fed's Duke speaks in Arizona

9:45 (US) ECB's Trichet to speak in Brussels

Trade The News Staff
Trade The News, Inc.

Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure

All information provided by Trade The News (a product of Trade The News, Inc. "referred to as TTN hereafter") is for informational purposes only. Information provided is not meant as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to Buy or Sell securities. Although information is taken from sources deemed reliable, no guarantees or assurances can be made to the accuracy of any information provided. 1. Information can be inaccurate and/or incomplete 2. Information can be mistakenly re-released or be delayed, 3. Information may be incorrect, misread, misinterpreted or misunderstood 4. Human error is a business risk you are willing to assume 5. Technology can crash or be interrupted without notice 6. Trading decisions are the responsibility of traders, not those providing additional information. Trade The News is not liable (financial and/or non-financial) for any losses that may arise from any information provided by TTN. Trading securities involves a high degree of risk, and financial losses can and do occur on a regular basis and are part of the risk of trading and investing.




Read more...

Pound Rises After Testing Support After U.K. Home Prices Dropped To A Record Low

Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by DailyFX | Feb 16 09 11:10 GMT |

Talking Points

  • Japanese Yen: Fails At 92.50
  • Pound: Home Price Fall To Record Low
  • Euro: Finding Support At 1.2700
  • US Dollar: Markets Closed For President's Day

Pound Rises after Testing Support After U.K. Home Prices Dropped To A Record Low

The pound would fall to support at 1.4150 after the Rightmove House price index fell to a new annualized record low of -9.1%. Sterling would bounce from the price level rising over 100 bps to over 1.4260. Sterling start the day's trading with a 100 pip decline after the markets priced in the uneventful G-7 summit. The finance ministers and central bankers from the developed nations agreed that the global economy was in a 'severe' downturn and they vowed to do everything they could to stop the problem. However, the lack of a course on how to deal with the problem added to concerns and sparked risk aversion flows.

The Confederation of British Industry has lowered its growth forecast for 2009 to -3.3% which would be the biggest contraction in almost 30 years. The inability of the BoE and other central banks to revive the credit markets has accelerated the downturn and prevented the housing market to stabilize which was the root of the problem. The central bank has forecasted more rate cuts and the possibility of quantitative easing. However, most of this may already be prices into the pound which has found solid support at 1.4150. Although, we may see another test of this level as we get closer to the next rate decision, the upside risks may be greater for sterling.

The post G-7 fallout would sink the euro to a low of 1.2731 before finding support, but the single currency would only reach as high as 1.2791 before giving back its gains. 1.2700 will be a key level to watch as it has held as support since December 5th,2008, break below could lead to a sharp move lower with a test of 1.2500 likely. Additionally, the 20-Day SMA has remained as staunch resistance and the technical level is on a downward trajectory as it has fallen below 1.300 for the first time since mid December at 1.2948. Now that the ECB has al but assured another rate cut at their March meeting we may see the euro continue to trade heavy.

The Yen price action during the overnight session demonstrates the lack of uncertainty in the markets. After a sharp fall to 91.32 the USD/JPY would shoot higher to 92.05. Japan's economy contracted the most since 1974 which added to the dour post G-7 sentiment. However, the pair's rise to 92.05 shows that markets are refraining from becoming too pessimistic with several stimulus packages from all the developed nations about to be unleashed.

The President's day holiday should lead to a low volume day of trading as U.S. equity markets will be closed. However, be conscious that on such a day price action is susceptible to volatility as a few large buyers could impact price action. The dollar may continue to be supported by safe haven flows, following the dismal outlook by the G-7 for the global economy. The economic calendar isn't expected to provide any major event risk until Friday's CPI figures which may lead sentiment at the mercy of the broader themes. We could see equity markets rise now that fiscal stimulus plan has passed and trader snake their bets on the potential winners. The spike in risk appetite could weigh on the dollar.

DailyFX

Disclaimer

Investment in the currency exchange is highly speculative and should only be done with risk capital. Prices rise and fall and past performance is no assurance of future performance. This website is an information site only. Accordingly we make no warranties or guarantees in respect of the content. The publications herein do not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Investors should obtain individual financial advice based on their own particular circumstances before making an investment decision on the basis of the recommendations in this website. While we try to ensure that all of the information provided on this website is kept up-to-date and accurate we accept no responsibility for any use made of the information provided. All intellectual property rights are the property of Daily FX. Daily FX and its affiliates, will not be held responsible for the reliability or accuracy of the information available on this site. The content herein is provided in good faith and believed to be accurate, however, there are no explicit or implicit warranties of accuracy or timeliness made by Daily FX or its affiliates. The reader agrees not to hold Daily FX or any of its affiliates liable for decisions that are based on information from this website. Daily FX highly recommends that before making a decision, the reader collects several opinions related to the decision and verifies facts from at least several independent sources.


Read more...