Asian Market Update

Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by Trade The News | Mar 20 09 06:00 GMT |

Investors Shift Out of Financials and into Materials amid USD Weakness as Backlash on Bank Bonuses Reaches Fever Pitch; Asian Bourses Retreat from Highs, while S&P Futures Sink in Extended Correction; EUR, GBP Consolidate Gains The day after the Fed announced a shift in policy to expand its balance sheet, extended pronounced greenback sparked investor flight from the recently outperforming financials to flock to the materials/commodity pastures. During the US session, XLF broke a string of consecutive rallies with an 8% fall, while IYM - the Basic Materials ETF residence of the likes of Newmont and Freeport-McMoRan - jumped 3.6%. A similar dynamic unfolded in Asia, where traders took profits on the gains in financials in favor of the depressed commodity names. In Sydney, BHP and Rio Tinto traded up as much as 5% and Woodside Petroleum was higher by 2.7%, while banking sectors' NAB and MacQuarrie, were lower by 2.4% and 8% respectively. Likewise, Korea's Woori Finance traded down 2.5% and HSBC in Hong Kong pared its initial 3% rally to trade around unchanged levels, whereas Korea's steelmaker Posco outperformed. Broader indices in Asia were weaker across the board from the initial strong open, with S&P/ASX falling 0.4%, Hang Seng down 1.6%, and Kospi trading off session highs at +0.8%. Japan's indices were closed due to a national holiday. Front-month S&P futures approached the last trading session of the week on the down side, falling by nearly a full percentage point. Economic data was light over the Asian hours, however a spattering of statements from European officials crossed the wires earlier. EU's Barroso noted the EU had sufficient resources to help struggling economies, calling for G20 round to oppose protectionism. In the UK, BOE Chief Economist Dale expressed optimism by noting that the UK is a long way through the recession, with much of contraction to have taken place by the end of the first half of 2009. In currencies, European majors extended their gains against the greenback earlier in US hours, but mainly flatlined through the Asian session amid TOkyo holiday-thinned markets. EUR/USD was contained by 1.3680, while GBP/USD staged an over-150pip correction from intra-day high around 1.46. The Swissy has remained firm across the board, but struggled with the 1.12 USD/CHF support for much of the session after a brief test earlier. Commodity currencies - infused with dollar weakness-driven strength in the commodity sector - outperformed notably. AUD/USD and NZD/USD are targeting 0.69 and 0.56, while CAD is lagging in the commodity FX sector ahead of tomorrow's retail sales data as USD/CAD broke back above 1.24 handle. Japanese Yen received a boost on the broad dollar weakness, with USD/JPY contained below 95.00 and EUR/JPY unable to retest 130 level. Crude oil prices are lower, after rising by more than 7% in NY trading. During the NY session, the NYMEX front-month crude contract rose above $50/bbl for the first time since Jan 6, as the Fed's decision to buy bonds has been supportive for commodities prices at the expense of the dollar. In terms of oil supplies, Tanker Tracker disclosed that in the 4 weeks to April 4, OPEC's exports are seen at -770K bpd vs. the prior survey of -350K bpd. Overall, oil prices are on track to rise for the 5th consecutive week, as the April NYMEX crude contract expires on Friday's session. Spot Gold is lower, after gaining sharply during the NY session. Gold, like oil, has benefited from the recent measures announced by the Fed. The SPDR Gold Trust ETF once again increased its holdings of gold to a new record of 1,103 tons by buying approximately 19 tons on March 19. This is the 4 time during the week that the ETF has increased its holdings of gold. Gold is currently set to close the week higher, for the first time in 1 month. Trade The News Staff Trade The News, Inc. Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure All information provided by Trade The News (a product of Trade The News, Inc. "referred to as TTN hereafter") is for informational purposes only. Information provided is not meant as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to Buy or Sell securities. Although information is taken from sources deemed reliable, no guarantees or assurances can be made to the accuracy of any information provided. 1. Information can be inaccurate and/or incomplete 2. Information can be mistakenly re-released or be delayed, 3. Information may be incorrect, misread, misinterpreted or misunderstood 4. Human error is a business risk you are willing to assume 5. Technology can crash or be interrupted without notice 6. Trading decisions are the responsibility of traders, not those providing additional information. Trade The News is not liable (financial and/or non-financial) for any losses that may arise from any information provided by TTN. Trading securities involves a high degree of risk, and financial losses can and do occur on a regular basis and are part of the risk of trading and investing.

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Technical Analysis for Major Currencies

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by ecPulse.com | Mar 20 09 06:56 GMT |

EURO The pair continued to incline yesterday to breach the 1.3700 level neglecting technical indicators suggesting the downside movement and is now trading near the last correction at 1.3850 (61.8%) for the decline that started from 1.4720 which will determine the next short term direction. On the intraday basis, we expect a slight downside correction to reach 1.3450 after breaching the minor support at 1.3580 and in attempt to trade within a new ascending channel The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.2980 and the key resistance at 1.3850 The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.4710 remains intact with targets at 1.2220 and 1.2120 Support: 1.3580, 1.3530, 1.3480, 1.3450, 1.3400 Resistance: 1.3690, 1.3750, 1.3805, 1.3845, 1.3905 Recommendation: According to our analysis, we see that its bes to sell the pair below 1.2895 with targets at 1.2745 and stop loss with a four hour close aboe 1.2960 GBP After confirming the breach of the resistance for the minor channel, the pair continued to incline in an attempt to reach the targets of the bullish technical pattern as it neared the initial target at 1.4600 before correcting to the downside. We expected the pair to decline towards 1.4380 which is the intersection of the resistance for the breached upside channel and the 50% correction before rebounding back to the upside heading towards 1.4680 and 1.4800 as far as 1.4380 remains intact The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.3885 and the key resistance at 1.4800 The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.5270 remains intact with targets at 1.3440 and 1.2960 Support: 1.4380, 1.4345, 1.4300, 1.4255, 1.4190 Resistance: 1.4495, 1.4575, 1.4600, 1.4635, 1.4680 Recommendation: According to our analysis, we believe its best to buy the pair above 1.4380 with targets at 1.4545 and stop loss with a four hour close below 1.4300 JPY The pair declined as expected to reach the support level at 93.55 and rebound to the upside which may take the pair to 95.90 before continuing the decline we still support which may reach 92.95 and 90.00 respectively. The trading range for today is among the key support at 90.00 and the key resistance at 99.70 The general trend is to the downside as far as 102.10 remains intact with targets at 84.95 and 82.60 Support: 94.30, 93.70, 92.95, 92.75, 92.50 Resistance: 94.75, 95.25, 95.90, 96.15, 96.90 Recommendation: According to our analysis, we believe its best to buy the pair above 94.75 with targets at 95.90 and stop loss with a four hour close below 93.70 CHF Yesterday's decline took the pair to the initial target at 1.1165 before rebounding to the upside in correctional movements to reach 1.1355. Our outlook to reach 1.1355 remains valid before reversing back to the downside an breach 1.1165 to reach 1.0975 The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.0975 and the key resistance at 1.1585 The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.0570 remains intact with targets at 1.2055 and 1.2160 Support: 1.1205, 1.1165, 1.1100, 1.1055, 1.0975 Resistance: 1.1315, 1.1355, 1.1405, 1.1455, 1.1495 Recommendation: According to our analysis, we believe that its best to sell the pair below 1.1355 with targets at 1.1250 and stop loss with a four hour close above 1.1450 CAD The downside movements took the pair towards 1.2140 yet couldn't extend past 1.2190 as it rebounded back to the upside to currently trade near the 38.2%. We expect the pair to reach the 61.8% correction at 1.2535 before gathering enough bearish momentum to reverse and reach 1.2140 and 1.1955 respectively. 1.2535 must remain intact for the decline to continue The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.1955 and the key resistance at 1.2755 The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.1780 remains intact with targets at 1.3400 Support: 1.2345, 1.2315, 1.2275, 1.2235, 1.2185 Resistance: 1.2485, 1.2535, 1.2570, 1.2620, 1.2670 Recommendation: According to our analysis, we beleive its best to sell the pair below 1.2535 with targets at 1.2400 and stop loss with a four hour close above 1.2620 Ecpulse disclaimer: The content of ecPulse.com and any page in the website contain information for investors/traders and is not a recommendation to buy or sell currencies, stocks, gold, silver & energies, nor an offer to buy or sell currencies, stocks, gold, silver & energies. The information provided reflects the writers' opinions that deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. ecPulse is not liable for any losses or damages, monetary or otherwise that result. I recommend that anyone trades currencies, stocks, gold, silver & energies should do so with caution and consult with a broker before doing so. Prior performance may not be indicative of future performance. Currencies, stocks gold, silver &energies presented should be considered speculative with a high degree of volatility and risk

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Technical Analysis for Crosses

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by ecPulse.com | Mar 20 09 06:16 GMT |

EUR/JPY Despite the sideways actions confirmed clearly on the Gator indicator as shown on the above chart but approaching the full correction level of the whole medium term decline started at 131.02 is still pressuring the pair in addition to the decreasing bulls appearing on the indicator .Hence we expect a downside wave today as far as 131.00 remains unbroken. A clear break below 128.60 (SMA 20) will accelerate the action and will force the pair to enter the broken channel again to retest 76.4% Fibonacci level at 126.50 before defining the next step. Trading range for today is among key support at 123.85 and key resistance now at 132.50. The general trend is to the downside as far as 141.44 remains intact with targets at 100.00 followed by 88.97 levels. Support: 128.60, 128.00, 127.30, 126.50, 126.00 Resistance: 129.65, 130.20, 130.75, 131.50, 132.50 Recommendation: According to our analysis, we believe that it is good to sell the pair at 129.20 with targets at 127.50 and stop loss at 130.60. GBP/JPY Three previous candles of 4h time frame before the current candle closed below 137.40 (very critical point) confirming our expected bearish scenario of our yesterday's mid-day report pressured by the middle line of the Bollinger band and trading below TEMA 20 indicator. Therefore we expect more declines on the intraday basis as far as 138.20 remains intact .This drop will be accelerated if the pair succeeded to breach and close below 76.4% Fibonacci again. Carefully note that Stockstick's negative overlapping supports this bearish scenario. Trading range for today is among key support at 132.50 and key resistance at 141.50. The general trend is to the downside as far as 148.20 remains intact with target at 116.00 Support: 136.50, 135.90, 135.00, 134.25, 133.20 Resistance: 137.30, 138.00, 138.60, 139.40, 140.00 Recommendation: According to our analysis, we believe that it is good to sell the pair at 136.75 with targets at 135.00 and stop loss at 138.20 EUR/GBP The royal pair collected the power it needs around 0.9390 (initial support areas) exactly as we expected followed by an obvious candle formation confirming our yesterday's bullish scenario towards the full correction areas at 0.9525 areas supported by a positive Stockstick overlapping .We note that the value of SMA 20 is increasing gradually as it started to breach the previous consolidation areas around 0.9350 zones now and more expected positive actions are highly anticipated as far as 0.9350 remains unbroken . Trading range is among the key support 0.9240 and key resistance now at 0.9650. The general trend is to the upside as far as 0.8020 area remains intact with targets at 1.0000 followed by 1.0400 levels. Support: 0.9400, 0.9350, 0.9300, 0.9260, 0.9200 Resistance: 0.9480, 0.9520, 0.9575, 0.9600, 0.9665 Recommendation: According to our analysis, we believe that it is good to buy the pair at 0.9430 with targets at 0.9520 and stop loss at 0.9350. Ecpulse disclaimer: The content of ecPulse.com and any page in the website contain information for investors/traders and is not a recommendation to buy or sell currencies, stocks, gold, silver & energies, nor an offer to buy or sell currencies, stocks, gold, silver & energies. The information provided reflects the writers' opinions that deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. ecPulse is not liable for any losses or damages, monetary or otherwise that result. I recommend that anyone trades currencies, stocks, gold, silver & energies should do so with caution and consult with a broker before doing so. Prior performance may not be indicative of future performance. Currencies, stocks gold, silver &energies presented should be considered speculative with a high degree of volatility and risk

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Oil Set for Fifth Week of Gains on U.S. Growth Plan, Dollar

By Angela Macdonald-Smith and Mark Shenk

March 20 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil is poised to gain for a fifth week, the longest winning streak in 11 months, after rising above $50 a barrel on the Federal Reserve’s plans to spur growth by spending $1 trillion buying back debt.

Oil climbed 7.2 percent yesterday to close at a three-month high after the Fed said it was seeking to purchase U.S. Treasuries, mortgage-backed bonds and other debt, raising expectations that efforts to end the global recession will boost fuel demand. Commodities surged the most this year as the dollar weakened against the euro.

“The dollar and equities markets certainly seem to be flowing positively into oil,” said Mark Pervan, senior commodity strategist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Melbourne. “There’s a lot of sidelined interest in commodities markets as people try to pick the bottom so it’s no surprise we’ve seen quote a strong response in some of the commodities.”

Crude oil for April delivery fell 61 cents to $51.00 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange in after-hours electronic trading at 12:24 p.m. in Sydney. Oil is up 10 percent this week, set for its longest series of weekly gains since April 2008.

Yesterday, futures rose $3.47 to $51.61 a barrel, the highest settlement since Nov. 28. The April contract expires at the close today. The more-active May contract slipped 45 cents to $51.59 a barrel in after-hours trading after jumping 6.4 percent yesterday.

Brent crude oil for May settlement was at $50.33 a barrel, down 34 cents, or 0.7 percent, at 12:36 p.m. Sydney time. Yesterday the contract jumped 6.3 percent, to $50.67 on London’s ICE Futures Europe exchange, the highest close since Nov. 28.

OPEC, Dollar

Oil has risen about 50 percent in the past three months from the Dec. 19 close of $33.87 a barrel. Crude has gained 14 percent so far this year as record production cuts by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries started to reduce a supply glut caused by the worst economic crisis since World War II. Prices are down 65 percent from July’s record of $147.27 a barrel.

OPEC will cut crude oil shipments 3.3 percent in the four weeks ending April 4 as producers seek to adhere to quotas, tanker-tracker Oil Movements said yesterday. The group decided at a March 15 meeting to hold output targets steady, pledging to tighten compliance with quotas.

OPEC members “have been rewarded now with a higher price,” Daniel Yergin, chairman of Cambridge Energy Research Associates, said in a Bloomberg Radio interview.

Dollar Slide

The trade-weighted Dollar Index, which tracks the currency’s performance against the euro, yen, pound, Canadian dollar, Swiss franc and Swedish krona, slid yesterday for an eighth day, the longest stretch in a year.

The dollar was down 1.4 percent to $1.3667 per euro from $1.3474 March 18.

The decline in the value of the U.S. currency, which helped push oil to the July record, is “not yet” on the agenda of OPEC’s next meeting on May 28, the group’s president, Jose Maria Botelho de Vasconcelos, said yesterday.

Gold yesterday jumped the most since September and copper surged to the highest since November on the Fed announcement. The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 prices rose 11.36, or 5.3 percent, to 225.30, the highest since Jan. 26.

To contact the reporters on this story: Angela Macdonald-Smith in Sydney at amacdonaldsm@bloomberg.net; Mark Shenk in New York at mshenk1@bloomberg.net

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Dollar Heads for Record Weekly Loss Versus Euro as Supply Rises

By Ron Harui

March 20 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar headed for a record weekly drop against the euro after the Federal Reserve unexpectedly said it will start buying Treasuries, ramping up supply of the currency.

The greenback traded near a two-month low versus the European currency and headed for a second weekly decline versus the yen as the Fed will boost its balance sheet by as much as $1.15 trillion through buying up to $300 billion of U.S. government debt and purchasing more mortgage bonds. The Australian and New Zealand dollars gained, heading for a third weekly advance, as prices of commodities the South Pacific nations export surged.

“The Fed is massively expanding the supply of dollars by buying government debt,” said Sean Callow, a senior currency strategist in Sydney at Westpac Banking Corp., Australia’s biggest lender by market value. “They’re effectively printing money; we regard this as profoundly bearish for the dollar.”

The dollar traded at $1.3643 per euro as of 10:20 a.m. in Singapore from $1.3665 yesterday, when it touched $1.3738, the weakest level since Jan. 9. The U.S. currency has lost 5.2 percent this week, the most since the euro’s debut in 1999. The dollar was at 94.74 yen from 94.51 yesterday, set for a 3.3 percent loss this week. The euro was at 129.25 yen from 129.17 yesterday, after gaining 2 percent this week.

The Australian dollar rose to 68.64 U.S. cents from 68.51 cents yesterday, and headed for a 4.3 percent weekly advance. The New Zealand dollar climbed to 55.61 U.S. cents from 55.35 cents, and was set for a 6.1 percent gain this week. Trading in currencies may be more subdued than usual because of a national holiday in Japan today, Callow said.

Commodity Producers

Currencies of commodity producers such as the New Zealand dollar are leading the rally against the greenback, which has declined against all of the 16 most traded currencies over the past five days.

Silver jumped 13 percent yesterday, the most since 1979. gold had the biggest increase since September, and crude oil topped $52 a barrel as the Fed’s steps to revive the U.S. economy prompted speculation that demand for raw materials will increase as investors seek hedges against inflation.

“You saw a rally in the euro as well as commodity currencies,” said Thomas Harr, a senior currency strategist at Standard Chartered Bank in Singapore. “It’s related to the rebound in commodity prices over the last couple of weeks.”

Dollar Index

The trade-weighted Dollar Index, which the ICE uses to track the greenback against the euro, yen, pound, Canadian dollar, Swiss franc and Swedish krona, headed for its biggest decline since 1985 this week, as the Fed said on March 18 it would purchase Treasuries and an additional $750 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities.

“As the money-printing machine kicks into high gear, dollar devaluation should accelerate with a ballooning money supply,” Yilin Nie, New York-based currency strategist at Morgan Stanley, wrote in a research note yesterday. The Fed’s move “is a key negative for the dollar.”

The dollar index traded at 83.223 today from 83.129 yesterday, when it touched 82.631, the lowest since Jan. 9. It is poised for a 4.9 percent loss this week.

The dollar fell by the most in nine years versus the euro on March 18. Yields on 10-year Treasuries slid the most since 1962 the same day after the Fed said it would concentrate purchases in notes due from two to 10 years. The central bank is expanding its so-called quantitative easing policy to more than $1.85 trillion in securities. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke will speak on “The Financial Crisis and Community Banking” at 9 a.m. in Phoenix, Arizona today.

‘Dollar Devaluation’

Morgan Stanley recommended investors buy the euro against the dollar at $1.3704, with a target of $1.45 and a stop-loss order at $1.30. A stop-loss order is an automatic instruction to sell or buy a currency should it reach a particular level.

The premium traders pay to buy call options on the euro versus the dollar over puts increased to a level indicating traders are more bullish on the European currency. A call option gives an investor the right to buy, while a put provides the right to sell.

The euro’s one-month 25-delta risk-reversal rate against the dollar rose to 1.0925 percent today from 1.0675 yesterday. The index had a negative reading as recently as March 10. Delta is the change in the value of an option for each dollar change in the market price of the underlying asset.

To contact the reporter on this story: Ron Harui in Singapore at rharui@bloomberg.net.

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Korean Won Set for Best Week in 3 Months as Stocks Extend Rally

By Kim Kyoungwha

March 20 (Bloomberg) -- South Korea’s won strengthened, set to complete its biggest weekly advance in three months, as economic stimulus and stock gains helped draw funds to the nation’s assets.

The currency traded near a five-week high after Finance Minister Yoon Jeung Hyun said yesterday the government is planning an extra spending package of as much as 29 trillion won ($21 billion) to aid the economy. The Kospi stock index rose 0.7 percent, poised for a second weekly advance.

“The market is still in recovery mode,” said Ko Yun Jin, a currency dealer with Kookmin Bank in Seoul. “But the won also faces modest downward pressure after recent bull runs as there’s demand for dollars as overseas investors repatriate dividends and importers pay bills.”

The won gained 0.4 percent to 1,391.50 per dollar as of 9:48 a.m. in Seoul, according to Seoul Money Brokerage Services Ltd. The currency rose 6.2 percent this week, paring this year’s loss to 9.5 percent, still Asia’s worst performance.

To contact the reporters on this story: Kim Kyoungwha in Beijing at kkim19@bloomberg.net.

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Zhongjin Gold, Yunnan Copper Jump on Surge in Commodity Prices

By Xiao Yu and Shidong Zhang

March 20 (Bloomberg) -- Zhongjin Gold Co. and Yunnan Copper Industry Co. led gains by Chinese commodities producers as investors bought more metals on concern U.S. government efforts to revive the economy will drive inflation.

Zhongjin Gold rose 8 percent to 56.20 yuan in Shanghai at 10:44 a.m. local time, after earlier surging as much as 10 percent. Yunnan Copper, the nation’s third-biggest producer of the metal, advanced 8 percent to 18.06 yuan in Shenzhen trading.

The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index, which tracks 19 commodities, yesterday jumped the most this year as investors bought raw material contracts as a hedge against inflation. The Federal Reserve this week said it may buy more than $1 trillion in government and mortgage debt to help end the recession and credit crisis.

“Commodities prices jumped on the U.S. government’s plan to stimulate the economy,” Le Yukun, an analyst at BOC International Ltd., said from Shanghai. “Commodity stocks are a haven as investors worry about inflation and the declining U.S. dollar.”

Zijin Mining Group Co., the country’s largest bullion producer, jumped as much as 9.3 percent in Shanghai. Jiangxi Copper Co. climbed 5.3 percent in Shanghai trading. Aluminum Corp. of China rose as much as 8 percent in Hong Kong trading.

Every commodity in the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index climbed yesterday while the dollar fell. Gold for immediate delivery yesterday gained 1.9 percent to $959.85 an ounce, the highest close in almost a month.

Copper futures jumped 3.6 percent to $3,985 a metric ton yesterday, the highest since Nov. 5. The metal rose to $4,000 a ton today.

To contact the reporters on this story: Shidong Zhang in Shanghai at szhang5@bloomberg.net; Xiao Yu in Beijing at yxiao@bloomberg.net

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Gold, Platinum Head for First Weekly Gain in Four on Inflation

By Glenys Sim

March 20 (Bloomberg) -- Gold and platinum dropped in Asia, paring the week’s gains, as some investors sold the metals to lock in profits following the recent rally on a weaker dollar and increased inflation concerns.

Both metals are set for their first weekly gain in a month on investors’ demand for a hedge against accelerating consumer prices after the Federal Reserve said it will buy as much as $1.15 trillion in bonds to cut borrowing costs. Gold is up 2.4 percent this week as the Dollar Index, which tracks the currency against those of six major U.S. trade partners, lost 4.9 percent.

“Gold has once again established its inverse relationship with the dollar, and will continue to extend gains as long as the dollar remains in its downtrend,” Steven Lv, trader at Shanghai Tonglian Futures Co., said from Shanghai.

Gold for immediate delivery fell 0.8 percent to $952.45 an ounce at 9 a.m. in Singapore after touching $961.51 yesterday, the highest since Feb. 27. Silver fell 0.5 percent to $13.525.

Assets in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest such fund backed by bullion, expanded to a record 1,103.29 metric tons yesterday, according to figures on the company’s Web site.

“We will continue to see people taking profit when there’s a big increase in prices, and then other people buying when they deem prices are low enough,” said Lv. Still, “it will take a lot more bad news, like consumer price indexes rising or equities tanking or the collapse of some major organization, for gold to break out of the $900 to $1,000 range.”

Debt Purchase

The Fed pledged March 18 to buy as much as $300 billion of Treasuries, up to $750 billion of bonds backed by government- controlled mortgage companies and $100 billion in debt from other state agencies to loosen credit and bolster the housing market. The dollar touched $1.3738 per euro yesterday, the lowest level since Jan. 9 and was at $1.3633 at 9:46 a.m.

Platinum lost 0.8 percent to $1,117 an ounce at 9:13 a.m., up 6.1 percent this week, as inflation concerns spurred demand for precious metals as a store of value. The metal rose as much as 6.7 percent to $1,130.50 yesterday, the highest since Sept. 26. Palladium added 0.6 percent to $207.50 an ounce. Both metals are used mainly in catalytic converters.

U.S. auto suppliers will get as much as $5 billion in U.S. Treasury aid to avoid a collapse that would cripple the domestic industry, including federally funded General Motors Corp. and Chrysler LLC. Suppliers will get a guarantee that money owed them for products will be paid, regardless of what happens to car companies, the Treasury Department said yesterday.

To contact the reporter on this story: Glenys Sim in Singapore at gsim4@bloomberg.net

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Murchison, Mitsubishi Sign A$4 Billion Port Accord

By Jason Scott and Jesse Riseborough

March 20 (Bloomberg) -- Murchison Metals Ltd. and Mitsubishi Corp. today signed a A$4 billion ($2.7 billion) agreement with the Western Australian government to build an iron ore port and rail project in the state’s mid-west.

The deep-water port, 450 kilometers (280 miles) north of Perth, may make its first shipments from 2013 with construction scheduled to start from 2010, Premier Colin Barnett said today in an e-mailed statement.

“Oakajee is the single most important project for Western Australia’s economic development over the next 50 years,” Barnett said in the statement. Oakajee Port & Rail Pty, a joint venture between Murchison and Mitsubishi, will spend A$160 million on completing a financing study by March 2010, he said.

The port, with a capacity to ship 35 million metric tons of the steelmaking raw material annually, will boost exports with potential users including Mount Gibson Iron Ltd., Atlas Iron Ltd., Gindalbie Metals Ltd., Golden West Resources Ltd. and Asia Iron Holdings Ltd.

Perth-based Murchison rose 1.4 percent to 71.5 cents at 1:42 p.m. in Sydney. The company, part-owned by China’s Sinosteel Corp., has gained 13 percent this year and has a market value of A$293 million.

Project Funding

Murchison and Mitsubishi will need to raise about A$3 billion in the next 12 months to fund construction, Oakajee Port & Rail Chief Executive Officer Christopher Eves told reporters at a briefing in Perth.

“We’re confident we’ll raise the funds,” Eves said. “The financing market we’ll go to in 12 months time will likely be different to the one now.”

The project, which will create 2,000 jobs during construction and employ 400 workers on completion, is dependent on an initial financing study scheduled to be completed by March 31 next year, Barnett said. He didn’t rule out the possibility of the port being used to ship out uranium exports.

Government funding will total A$678 million, to be used to develop a heavy industrial estate, with Barnett saying he’s confident the federal government will contribute half of that.

Thiess Ltd., controlled by Leighton Holdings Ltd., was named the project’s contractor, with Australian Rail Network Ltd. and P&O Automotive and General Stevedoring to operate the rail and port networks.

To contact the reporter on this story: Jason Scott in Perth at Jscott14@bloomberg.net; Jesse Riseborough in Melbourne at jriseborough@bloomberg.net

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India's Plan to Extend Trading Hours Will Drive Up Costs, Birla Says

By Pooja Thakur

March 20 (Bloomberg) -- India’s proposal to narrow the gap between local and overseas securities trading hours may be spurned by investors on concern it will boost costs, Birla Sun Life Asset Management Co. said.

Trading hours for stocks and derivatives may be increased, the Securities and Exchange Board of India said yesterday, seeking market feedback over the next three weeks.

“It will make life miserable,” Birla Sun Life’s Chief Investment Officer A. Balasubramaniam said in an interview late yesterday. The nation’s third-largest money manager oversees $9.6 billion of assets. “We should trade fewer hours as it will improve productivity.”

The local market would have to open 3 1/2 hours earlier at 6:30 a.m. to match the start in Singapore, where trading volume of India’s Nifty stock futures has surged 10-fold since February 2007. Higher costs outweigh any benefits from eliminating the delay, said Samir Arora, who runs an India-focused fund at Helios Capital Management.

“There should absolutely be no change or increase in timing,” the Singapore-based hedge fund manager said. “Investors and fund managers would be better off spending more time in analysis and research, which is best done when the markets are closed.”

Daily trading of Nifty futures in Singapore rose as high as 23,404 contracts last month from a peak of 2,266 contracts in February 2007, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Singapore License

The National Stock Exchange of India, which licensed its benchmark S&P CNX Nifty Index to the Singapore Exchange, proposed the change because investors don’t want the gap, the Indian exchange said in an e-mailed response to questions late yesterday. The proposal isn’t linked to the Singapore Exchange’s license, the Indian bourse said.

“The feedback from our members is that it is inevitable over a period of time trading hours are extended and are more in line with international benchmarks,” National Stock Exchange said. It will extend the hours “when there is broad consensus from market participants,” the bourse said.

The National Stock Exchange was ranked the second-largest derivative bourse globally in 2007 in terms of the number of contracts traded in single-stock futures.

Nifty futures start trading on the Singapore Exchange at 9 a.m. Singapore time, or 6:30 a.m. India time. Indian stock markets open at 9:55 a.m. local time and shut at 3:30 p.m., about the same time as the close of futures trading in the city- state.

‘Benefits Both’

“SGX believes that trading in its listed futures contracts benefits both the index futures as well as its component stocks in the home exchanges,” Singapore Exchange said in an e-mailed response to queries.

India’s 5 1/2-hour trading day is sufficient to keep the local stock market competitive, said Kenneth Andrade, head of investments at IDFC Asset Management Co.

“It’s anyway virtually the entire day,” said Andrade, whose company oversees assets worth $1.8 billion in Mumbai. “If you can’t finish trading, you have to be inefficient.”

The cost to brokerages will “shoot up” as they would require two shifts to match Singapore’s opening, said Arun Kejriwal, founder of Kejriwal Research & Investment Services in Mumbai.

“Which country in the world opens its markets even before the newspaper is out?” he said. “Logistically, it will be a nightmare.”

For Related News and Information: News about India’s markets regulator: SEBI IN CN Most-read stocks stories: MNI STK Sensex Member’s Ranked Returns: SENSEX MRR Graph Nifty Futures in Singapore: IHA GIP For top news on India: TOP IN Top financial services stories: FTOP Global stocks stories: TOP STK

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Indian Output May Signal Stockmarket’s ‘Bottom,’ JPMorgan Says

By Chen Shiyin

March 20 (Bloomberg) -- Indian stocks may “bottom” in the middle of the year after the slump in industrial production ends, JPMorgan Chase & Co. said.

Output typically troughs two to four months before India’s equity markets, JPMorgan analysts led by Bharat Iyer wrote in a report dated yesterday. Production may drop 3 percent over March and April before recovering, they said.

The Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index has dropped 6.7 percent this year, adding to a 52 percent slump in 2008, as the global financial crisis and recession weighed on the corporate earnings outlook. In the last economic cycle, industrial production started recovering in May 2001 while equity markets reached a bottom in September that year, JPMorgan said.

“The above analysis would suggest that the equity markets could bottom out over June to July,” the analysts wrote. “This would also be a decisive phase for the equity markets as there should be clarity by then on the results of the national elections and the progress of the monsoon and its seasonal impact on the economy.”

Output at factories, utilities and mines dropped 0.5 percent in January from a year earlier, declining for the third time in four months, the Central Statistical Organization said on March 12. Economists had expected a 0.9 percent contraction.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has reduced taxes on consumer products and the central bank slashed interest rates to a record low to revive an economy that some analysts fear may slow further as elections in April and May stymie policymaking in the world’s biggest democracy.

To contact the reporter on this story: Chen Shiyin in Singapore at schen37@bloomberg.net

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Australia Stocks: BHP Billiton, Lihir, Macquarie, Woodside

By Sam Waite

March 20 (Bloomberg) -- Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index fell 0.1 percent to 3,478.300 as of 10:48 a.m. in Sydney. The following are among the most active shares in the Australian market. Stock symbols are in parentheses after company names.

Banks fell after financial shares led a retreat in U.S. stocks on skepticism the Federal Reserve’s plan to buy bonds will revive the economy. Macquarie Group Ltd. (MQG AU), Australia’s largest investment bank, lost 5.1 percent to A$23.24. Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU), the nation’s biggest mortgage lender, dropped 2.4 percent to A$33.17.

Gold producers: Gold jumped the most in six months in New York after the Federal Reserve’s plan to buy debt weakened the dollar and revived concerns inflation will accelerate. Silver surged to the biggest gain in 29 years.

Newcrest Mining Ltd. (NCM AU), Australia’s biggest gold producer, rose 3.3 percent to A$34.17. Lihir Gold Ltd. (LGL AU) rose 3.1 percent to A$3.36 in Sydney trading.

Mining shares: The Reuters/Jefferies CRB index of 19 commodities rose 5.3 percent, to 225.3, the biggest gain since Dec. 31. BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP AU), the world’s largest mining company, rose 4.1 percent to A$32.53.

Oil companies: Crude oil for April delivery rose $3.47 to $51.61 a barrel at 2:44 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest settlement since Nov. 28. Woodside Petroleum Ltd. (WPL AU), Australia’s second-largest oil and gas producer behind BHP, gained 1.7 percent to A$37.61.

To contact the reporter for this story: Sam Waite in Tokyo at Swaite1@bloomberg.net

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Asian Resources Stocks Rise on Commodity Rally; Banks Fall

By Jonathan Burgos

March 20 (Bloomberg) -- Asian commodity stocks climbed on a rally in oil and metal prices, offsetting declines by banks amid skepticism U.S. and Japanese plans to purchase bonds will ease the financial crisis.

BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s largest mining company, rose 4.3 percent in Sydney, while Posco, Asia’s third-largest steelmaker, gained 2.6 percent in Seoul. Commonwealth Bank of Australia, the nation’s largest mortgage lender, fell 2.9 percent, tracking declines by U.S. financial shares. Japan’s stock market is closed for a public holiday.

“Investors are switching out from banks and into the resources stocks because they’re waiting for signs of improvement in the credit markets,” said Rob Patterson, who manages about $2 billion at Argo Investments Ltd. in Adelaide, Australia.

The MSCI Asia Pacific excluding Japan Index was little changed at 236.31 as of 9:42 a.m. in Hong Kong, taking its advance this week to 6.3 percent. The gauge that includes Japan has climbed 7.8 percent in the past five days, the most since August 2007, as banks including Barclays Plc and Standard Chartered Plc reported “strong” starts to the year.

South Korea’s Kospi climbed 1.3 percent, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index lost 0.1 percent. Benchmark indexes in New Zealand, Singapore and Malaysia declined, while Taiwan’s rose.

Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 0.5 percent. The gauge dropped 1.3 percent yesterday, led by financial shares, which had risen in seven of the previous eight days. The decline halted the S&P 500’s rebound from the 12-year low reached on March 9, paring the gain to 16 percent.

Commodities Rally

BHP gained 4.3 percent to A$32.60 as a measure of six metals jumped 5.6 percent yesterday in London. Rio Tinto Group, the world’s third-largest mining company, added 3.7 percent to A$47.18. Posco rose 2.6 percent to 356,500 won.

Other commodities followed gains in metals, with the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 commodity prices climbing 5.3 percent, the biggest gain since Dec. 31.

Woodside Petroleum Ltd., Australia’s second-largest oil producer, added 1.7 percent to A$37.59 as crude oil futures surged 7.2 percent yesterday to $51.61 a barrel, the highest settlement since Nov. 28. Santos Ltd., the nation’s third- largest oil and gas producer, jumped 4.6 percent to A$16.05.

Newcrest Mining Ltd., Australia’s biggest gold producer, rose 2.7 percent to A$33.97. Lihir Gold Ltd. climbed 3.1 percent to A$3.36. Bullion jumped 7.8 percent in New York, the most in six months, as a Federal Reserve plan to buy debt weakened the dollar and revived concerns inflation will accelerate.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia fell 2.9 percent to A$33.03 in Sydney. Macquarie Group Ltd., Australia’s largest investment bank, dropped 3.6 percent to A$23.71.

A gauge of finance stocks on the MSCI Asia Pacific excluding Japan Index fell 1.1 percent, snapping a five-day, 15 percent rally. The comments this week from Barclays and Standard Chartered added to similar statements from Citigroup Inc. and Bank of America Corp., which fueled speculation the worst of the financial crisis is over.

To contact the reporter for this story: Jonathan Burgos in Singapore at jburgos4@bloomberg.net.

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U.S. Stocks Decline Amid Skepticism About Fed Bond Purchases

By Cristina Alesci

March 19 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks retreated, paring a global rally, as financial shares fell for the first time in three days on growing skepticism the Federal Reserve’s plan to buy bonds will revive the economy.

JPMorgan Chase & Co., Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. declined at least 5.7 percent. Prudential Financial Inc., the second-biggest U.S. life insurer, tumbled 25 percent after its senior debt rating was downgraded by Moody’s Investors Service because of investment losses. Oracle Corp. led an advance in technology shares after its earnings topped estimates and the company said it will start paying a dividend.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index dropped 1.3 percent to 784.04. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 85.78 points, or 1.2 percent, to 7,400.80. The Russell 2000 Index of small companies slumped 1.1 percent to 413.26. The MSCI World Index of 23 developed markets added 1.5 percent to 800.98, giving it an eight-day winning streak that’s the longest since 2006.

“With one hand the government is issuing debt, and with the other it’s repurchasing it using paper that it is printing,” said Lawrence Creatura, a Rochester, New York-based money manager at Federated Investors Inc., which oversees $407 billion. “This is a shell game that’s not going to be overlooked by global investors.”

A slump in financials overtook a rally in materials and energy producers that had helped drive a 1.1 percent gain in the S&P 500 one minute after trading started in New York. The decline halted the S&P 500’s rebound from the 12-year low reached on March 9, paring the gain to 16 percent.

54% Surge

Financial shares rose in seven of the previous eight days, advancing 54 percent from March 6 through yesterday. The gains came as Citigroup Inc., Bank of America Corp. and JPMorgan said they were profitable in January and February, spurring speculation the worst of the financial crisis is over.

The gain through yesterday pushed the S&P 500 Financials Index’s 14-day relative strength index, a measure of whether stocks have risen too far too fast, to its highest since October 2007.

“Everyone’s holding their breath and asking whether this rally has legs to it or not,” said Keith Wirtz, who helps oversee $20 billion as chief investment officer at Fifth Third Asset Management in Cincinnati. “A lot of money is still on the sidelines.”

JPMorgan, the biggest U.S. bank by market value, fell 8 percent to $24.95. Morgan Stanley declined 13 percent to $21.04 and Goldman Sachs slid 5.7 percent to $99.30.

Insurers Fall

Along with Prudential, insurer Lincoln National Corp. was among the top five decliners in the S&P 500. Lincoln National lost 15 percent to $8.04. Prudential retreated 25 percent to $18.76.

Technology shares in the S&P 500 added 0.4 percent. Oracle surged 9.7 percent to $17.37 after the world’s second-largest software maker reported third-quarter profit that topped estimates by 11 percent.

Airlines fell after the International Air Transport Association said losses this year may exceed the $2.5 billion projected in December as the global recession saps demand.

UAL Corp., parent of United Airlines, tumbled 14 percent to $5.19. AMR Corp., operator of American Airlines, dropped 10 percent to $3.08.

Companies in the S&P 500 Energy Index rose as investors rushed to commodities. Speculation that the Fed’s steps to revive the U.S. economy will spur demand for raw materials as a hedge against inflation pushed crude oil up over $52 a barrel to the highest price since Dec. 1.

Energy Shares

Chevron Corp. gained for a fourth day, adding 0.8 percent to $67.13. Hess Corp. advanced 7.6 percent to $64.92.

“If you look at energy stocks, they all bottomed in late October,” said Brian Barish, Denver-based president of Cambiar Investments LLC, which manages about $4 billion. “Oil is a good inflation hedge and they aren’t making any more of it.” Cambiar has 25 percent of its funds in energy companies.

Every commodity in the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 prices climbed, while the dollar tumbled.

The Fed’s initiative, aimed at preventing the economy from sinking further, was followed by a report showing the number of Americans collecting jobless benefits swelled to a record 5.47 million, indicating that former employees are unable to find new work as companies continue to cut costs. Initial jobless applications last week topped 600,000 for a seventh straight time, the worst performance since 1982.

Philadelphia Manufacturing

Other data showed manufacturing in the Philadelphia region shrank in March for the 15th time in the last 16 months as orders and employment weakened.

Drug companies slid after retail sales of prescription medications rose at the slowest pace in 47 years as cost- conscious consumers favored cheaper generics, said IMS Health Inc., which compiled the data.

Pfizer Inc. fell 3.9 percent to $13.70 and Merck & Co. slumped 3.4 percent to $26.04. Health-care shares in the S&P 500 lost 2.5 percent, the second-steepest decline among 10 industries after financials. The group accounts for 15 percent of the S&P 500, the second-biggest weighting after technology shares.

To contact the reporter on this story: Cristina Alesci in New York at calesci2@bloomberg.net.

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Currency Pair Daily Forecasts

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by Finotec Group | Mar 19 09 10:09 GMT |

EUR/USD Daily Technical Reports EUR/USD-market strategy can be a buy from the level 1.3475$ Technical oscillators supporting the bullish trend for the currency pair To strengthen our analysis; we use many other indicators, starting with MACD (Moving Averages convergence divergence); we notice the MACD lines in a bullish direction and crossing above the zero line. In order to find the power of the market, we use RSI (Relative Strength Index).With RSI; we can determine that the market is in a bullish direction. USD/JPY Daily Technical Reports USD/JPY-market strategy can be a sell form the level 96.00 Technical oscillators supporting the bearish trend for the currency pair To strengthen our analysis; we use many other indicators, starting with MACD (Moving Averages convergence divergence); we notice the MACD in a bearish direction above the zero line. In order to find the power of the market, we use RSI (Relative Strength Index).With RSI; we can determine that the market is in a bearish direction. GBP/USD Daily Technical Reports GBP/USD-market strategy can be a buy from the level 1.4250$ Technical oscillators supporting the bullish trend for the currency pair To strengthen our analysis; we use many other indicators, starting with MACD (Moving Averages convergence divergence); we notice the MACD lines are in a bullish direction. In order to find the power of the market, we use RSI (Relative Strength Index).With RSI; we can determine that the market is in a bullish direction. USD/CHF Daily Technical Reports USD/CHF-market strategy can be a sell from the level 1.1400 Technical oscillators supporting the bearish trend for the currency pair To strengthen our analysis; we use many other indicators, starting with MACD (Moving Averages convergence divergence); we notice the MACD lines in a bearish direction above the zero line. In order to find the power of the market, we use RSI (Relative Strength Index).With RSI; we can determine that the market is in a bearish direction. Finotec Group Inc. http://www.finotec.com/ Disclaimer: FINOTEC Tradings Market Commentaries are provided for informational purposes only. The information contained within these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and not intended as investment advice. FINOTEC Trading assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein.

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European Market Update

Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by Trade The News | Mar 19 09 10:05 GMT |

No silver bullet but Central banks are pulling out all the stops in an effort to arrest the crisis of confidence ECONOMIC DATA (IC) Icelandic Sedladbanki cut interest rates by 100bps to 17.00%, as expected Interest Rate Decision: BoJ monthly economic report maintained its overall assessment; economic conditions have deteriorated significantly' and 'are likely to continue deteriorating for the time being (RU) Russia Gold & Forex Reserves w/e Mar 13th: $376.1B v $380.5B prior (SZ) Swiss Feb Trade Balance: CHF0.7B v CHF1.99B prior (HU) Hungary Jan Avg Gross Wages Y/Y: -5.2% v 5.2%e (NV) Dutch Feb Unemployment Rate: 3.9% v 4.0%e (NV) Dutch March Consumer Confidence: -34 v -32e (SW) Swedish Feb Unemployment Rate: 8.0% v 7.4%e (IT) Italian Jan Trade Balance: -€3.59B v -€2.476Be; Trade Balance EU: €404M v €400Me (UK) Feb Public Finances (PSNCR): £4.4B v £4.5Be; Net Borrowing: £9.0B v £8.3Be (UK) Feb Preliminary M4 Money Supply M/M: 1.4% v 1.4%e; Y/Y: 18.8% v 17.5% prior (SZ) Swiss March ZEW Survey (Expectations): -57.1 v -57.7 prior SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM Equities: Inchcape [INCH.UK] reported its FY08 Rev at £6.30B, in line with the £6.26B expected. Inchcape confirmed rumors of a 9 for 1 rights issue to raise £232M (as expected). Firm planes to place 4.14B new shares are a price of 6p/share, it seeks to lower financial debt levels (currently at £530M). Inchcape noted that the proposed rights issue remains subject to shareholder approval. ||Prudential [PRU.UK] reported its FY08 at a Net loss of £396M, ahead of the expected -£2.10B, Op Profit at £1.35B v1.71Be and NAV of £5.99 v £5.91 y/y. The firms CEO will be resigning effective October 1. Prudential announced that it was increasing its final dividend by 8% to 18.9p/shr. FY08 ROEV was 15% v 15.4% y/y and external funds under management £62.3B v £68.7B y/y. For FY08, net investment flows were £4.27B v £7.98B y/y. Management stated regarding outlook: It is clear that 2009 will be a challenging year. Indeed, there is an increasing likelihood that in some parts of the world recession will continue into 2010. ||Thomas Cook [TCG.UK]provided a Trading Update stating that trading was in line with expectations. Firm stated that despite the distorting impact of a later Easter, bookings have improved significantly in the last four weeks, particularly in our Continental and Northern European segments. TCG saw Total Winter 2008-9 Average Selling Prices +4% y/y and Total summer 2009 Average Selling Prices +5% y/y. ||Reportedly [RBS.UK] is looking to sell its Singapore retail and commercial banking units - Straits Times. Article stated RBS plans to continue to operate its private and wholesale banking businesses in Singapore. ||British Land [BLND.UK] announced a 96.57% acceptance of its proposed rights issue. The Company received valid acceptances in respect of 329,194,940 New Shares. Reminder: Firm looking to raise approximately £740M net of expenses by the issue of up to 340.8M new Shares. || Prosieben [PSM.GE], reportedly the company's controlling private equity investors have hired advisers to restructure about €1.8B ($2.4B) in debt - FT. Article stated that the debt is held by the holding companies of the private equity firms. KKR Financial and Permira have hired debt specialist Houlihan Lokey to examine possible solutions at holding company Lavena. Lavena holds 88% of ProSieben. || Heidelbergcement [HEI.GE] reiterated FY09 outlook in which both net profit and sales are expected to decline versus year-ago levels. Stated that it could make no reliable forecast possible for 2009 at this time and that it remains confident in finding long-term financing in 2009. It reiterated plans to sell selected assets and saw a H2 impetus from infrastructure programs ||Kuoni [KUNN.SZ] reported its FY08 Net at CHF 152.1M, ahead of the expected CHF145M, EBIT at CHF151.5M v CHF148.3M expected and Rev of CHF4.86B, slightly below the CHF4.90B expected. Kuoni proposed a FY08 div CHF10/shr v CHF17/shr estimate. Firm expected acquisitions made in FY08 to add CHF308M to annual revenues. || Areclor Mattel [MT.NV], reportedly the steel maker is considering suspending up to three mines in Russia until market conditions improve. The Berezovskaya mine will reportedly continue operations and while work force at Russian coal mines to be restructured. || Grupo Ferrovial [FER.SP], BAA unit has been ordered to sell 3 UK airports. The Competition Commission (CC) will require BAA to sell both Gatwick and Stansted as well as either Edinburgh or Glasgow. The CC also stipulates that BAA must sell all three airports within two years. The CC is also requiring BAA at Aberdeen to improve consultation with airlines as well as publish certain financial and other information. A monitoring trustee will oversee the airports sales processes. || Lufthansa [LHA.GE] Cargo Unit CEO commented that its 2009 operative results likely to be below 2008 levels due to difficult environment. It planed to invests 'hundreds of millions' in Frankfurt airport and added that any Frankfurt night flight ban could endanger the company Speakers: ECB's Quaden commented that the ECB had further room to cut interestrates unlike other Central Banks and current rate is not the lowest || BoJ Gov Shirakawa reiterated the view that purchasing JGBs was not an attempt to finance the Govt deficit or stabilizing long-term rates || German Fin Min Reiterated the view that Germany might have to further lower its 2009 GDP forecast of 2.25% contraction. || China Foreign Min: Country welcomes foreign investment and objects to protectionism. He did comment that the recent decision to block Coca-Cola's purchase of Huiyuan Juice was not related to protectionism but to competitive factors. || Germany PM Merkel reiterated that one needs to let current stimulus package work through economy; against additional stimulus at this time. - Must have sound fiscal policies once the economic crisis passes. She noted that Upcoming G20 in London must look at the lesson of the global economic crisis and not just address steps to combat it. An Eastern Europe credit crunch 'would' have an impact on Euro Zone || BoJ March economic report maintained its overall assessment; economic conditions have deteriorated significantly' and 'are likely to continue deteriorating for the time being || S&P Report commented thatEurope's severe recession raises the prospect ao a deflation risk. It noted that declines in its GDP in the second half of last year have continued into the first quarter of 2009, pushing hopes of a bounce-back in activity to the very end of this year. If deflation was to develop in certain Eurozone countries, the ECB would find quantitative easing measures more difficult to implement than in the U.K., the report states. This is because there is no single bond market in the Eurozone, but a collection of national bond markets all denominated in euros || Russia Dep PM Shuvalov commented that Russian Banks have $100B in foreign currencies to help repay overseas debts. , Russia is finished with direct bailouts Company debt must be repaid and funds are available at domestic banks Remains cautions on futures bailouts In Currencies: The USD remained on the defensive during the European morning. The latest FED injections were seen improving the outlook for US equities but they are also seen pressuring the USD in the medium-term. A few currency analysts now calling for EUR/USD target towards the 1.40 handle circulating. For the session the EUR/USD was 'repelled' twice during the morning above the 1.35 handle and unable to break above yesterday's post Fed quantitative easing high of 1.3536. The JPY was former compared to its opening levels seen in Asia. USD/USD probing the critical 95 neighborhood throughout the morning. This has been a pivot level over the last decade in terms of setting trends. EUR/JPY unable to sustain a move above the 130 level during the Asian morning.|| EUR/CHF was largely range bound and retested the 1.5400 area in Asia and retested this level in Europe after pull backs in towards 1.5350 level. || HSBC analyst provided an argument that the NOK is the 'ultimate haven currency'. Noting tat Norway's economy grew by1.3% in Q4 and was not forecasted to experience as big a downturn as other economies this year. Norges monetary policy was also NOK supportive, like other commodity-producing countries and it is not expected to resort to quantitative easing policy to boost inflation expectations || Fixed income: Belly of USD Attracts Strong Bid After FOMC. A unanimous vote yesterday at the FOMC produced a mandate for a USD800B spending spree with USD300B assigned for the 2 to 10-year portion of the yield curve. The European fixed income futures were in positive territory after gapping higher at the open but were retracing its earlier gains In Energy: Venezuela Oil Min Ramirez: Current global oil market is oversupplied by 1M bpd; not planning to cut output further ||Venezuela may seek as much as $4B in financing in 2009, plans to revamp oil reserve bookings ||US likely to relax restrictions on diplomatic contacts with Iran soon || Analysts at Morgan Stanley cut European Oil and Gas sector to In Line from Attractive || Moody's Places Kuwait's Sovereign Ratings On Review For Possible Downgrade || For Royal Dutch Shell [RDSA.UK] reportedly a Nigerian pipeline has been destroyed by explosion and co has shutdown Warri river pumping station. || NOTES Central banks are pulling out all the stops in an effort to arrest the crisis of confidence in global asset markets and place a floor on the growth slowdown. Coordination between FED, BOJ, BOE, BOC and others? Even ECB mulling 'unconventional measures'. Reportedly China gives the Fed's Quantitative Easing measures the 'benefit of doubt' despite worries (unconfirmed source) US Treasury Sec Geithner to provide details on the so- called toxic plan in what is proving to be a very difficult political environment. Looking Ahead: 6:30 (UK) DMO to sell £3.25B 2.2% 2014 Gilts 7:00 (UK) CBI March Industrial Trends: No expectations v -56 prior 7:00 (CA) Canadian Feb CPI M/M: 0.3% expected v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: 1.0% expected v 1.1% prior; CPI Core M/M: 0.1% expected v -0.4% prior; Y/Y: 1.5% expected v 1.9% prior 8:30 (CA) Canadian Jan International Securities Transactions: -C$2.000B expected v -C$2.835B prior 8:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims w/e March 14th: 655k expected v 654k prior 8:30 (US) Continuing Claims March 7th: 5.323M expected v 5.317M prior 10:00 (US) Feb Leading Indicators: -0.6% expected v 0.4% prior 10:00 (US) March Philadelphia Fed: -39.0 expected v -41.3 prior 1:00 (TU) Turkish Base Rate Announcement. 100bps cut to 10.50% expected. Current Base Rate is 11.50% Trade The News Staff Trade The News, Inc. Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure All information provided by Trade The News (a product of Trade The News, Inc. "referred to as TTN hereafter") is for informational purposes only. Information provided is not meant as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to Buy or Sell securities. Although information is taken from sources deemed reliable, no guarantees or assurances can be made to the accuracy of any information provided. 1. Information can be inaccurate and/or incomplete 2. Information can be mistakenly re-released or be delayed, 3. Information may be incorrect, misread, misinterpreted or misunderstood 4. Human error is a business risk you are willing to assume 5. Technology can crash or be interrupted without notice 6. Trading decisions are the responsibility of traders, not those providing additional information. Trade The News is not liable (financial and/or non-financial) for any losses that may arise from any information provided by TTN. Trading securities involves a high degree of risk, and financial losses can and do occur on a regular basis and are part of the risk of trading and investing.

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South Korea Plans Up to 29 Trillion Won in Spending

By Seyoon Kim and Kevin Cho

March 19 (Bloomberg) -- South Korea is planning an extra spending package of as much as 29 trillion won ($21 billion) to support an economy headed for its first recession since the Asian financial crisis a decade ago.

The spending plan, which may be adjusted after it’s submitted to the Cabinet next week, will range from 27 trillion won to 29 trillion won, Finance Minister Yoon Jeung Hyun was cited as saying by his spokesman at a lunch meeting with the local press in Seoul today.

Yoon, who has forecast the economy may contract 2 percent this year, said South Korea will place priority on creating employment. The government said earlier today it plans to spend an additional 4.9 trillion won to create as many as 550,000 jobs.

“It shows that the government has the will to boost the economy,” said Ryu Seung Sun, an economist at HMC Investment Securities Co. in Seoul. “The important issue will be how effectively that budget will be spent.”

About 11 trillion won of the additional spending will be used to make up for a decrease in tax collection amid an economic slowdown, while the net increase in expenditure may range from 16 trillion won to 18 trillion won, Yoon said today.

South Korea’s government and ruling party have tentatively agreed on an extra spending package of 29.4 trillion won, the JoongAng Ilbo newspaper said on March 17. The Grand National Party and the finance ministry hope to boost economic growth by 2 percentage points with the spending, the newspaper said, citing a document it obtained.

Bond Sales

Bank of Korea Governor Lee Seong Tae said last week he expects the government to propose a “significant” package of additional spending, financed through bond sales. The central bank will watch the effect of debt sales on financial markets as it decides whether to purchase bonds, Lee said on March 12.

Yoon said today there’s “no need” to ask the central bank to buy treasury bonds.

Asia’s fourth-largest economy shrank 3.4 percent last quarter, the first contraction in 11 years, as exports slid. Overseas sales of cars, ships, mobile phones and other goods, which make up more than 60 percent of South Korea’s gross domestic product, fell 17.1 percent in February.

To contact the reporter on this story: Seyoon Kim in Seoul at Skim7@bloomberg.net; Kevin Cho in Seoul at kcho2@bloomberg.net

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EU Stands by Stimulus in Face of Deepening Recession

By James G. Neuger

March 19 (Bloomberg) -- European Union leaders are likely to decline to pump more money into the stricken economy at a two-day summit starting today, bucking evidence of a deepening worldwide recession.

The bloc’s 27 chiefs gathering in Brussels are set to stand by a planned 400 billion-euro ($525 billion) stimulus package while haggling over which infrastructure projects are eligible for the final 5 billion euros.

“Significant additional fiscal stimulus does not seem to be on the cards in Europe,” said Nick Kounis, chief European economist at Fortis Bank in Amsterdam. “Not many countries actually have much further room.”

Two weeks before meeting President Barack Obama at a Group of 20 crisis summit, European leaders including German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy have faced criticism from some economists for underestimating the deterioration in the economy, set to shrink for the first time since World War II.

Data in the past week showed industrial production in Germany posting its largest recorded drop in January and unemployment in Britain jumping at the fastest pace since at least 1971 in February. The second nationwide strike in seven weeks in France today disrupted services to protest to what unions call Sarkozy’s “inadequate response.”

Three times last week, Merkel rebuffed Obama’s March 11 call for “concerted action around the globe to jump-start the economy,” comments that were echoed by Lawrence Summers, his top economic adviser, and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner.

‘Extraordinarily Dangerous’

“It’s extraordinarily dangerous that trans-Atlantic conflict is being fanned and I’m grateful to the American president that he’s told me this is an artificial debate,” Merkel said today in Berlin before heading to Brussels.”

The EU economy will shrink 1.8 percent in 2009, the European Commission predicted in January. The outlook has darkened since then, with Germany’s Kiel-based IfW institute forecasting a 3.3 percent slide last week.

Merkel played down concern that the euro region could be destabilized by rising indebtedness in countries like Spain, reeling from a downgrade in its credit rating by Standard & Poor’s in January.

“At the moment we see no need for action,” Merkel told reporters in Berlin yesterday. “We believe that the conditions are good for the euro region to remain stable.”

The summit starts at 4 p.m. today and ends around 1 p.m. tomorrow.

Making Good

Instead of pledging new money, EU leaders need to make good on prior promises to spend as much as 4 percent of gross domestic product on stimulus measures, European Commission President Jose Barroso said yesterday.

The inability to coordinate those national steps and the looming fight at the summit over infrastructure spending show the EU’s limitations, said Arnaldo Abruzzini, head of Eurochambres, which represents 19 million European businesses.

“Member states have committed hundreds of billions for their own economies,” Abruzzini said. “We’re still discussing 5 billion. It gives the idea that coordination at European level is very difficult. I doubt we’ll get something out of the summit.”

Germany plans a business boost equal to 3.4 percent of GDP, according to the Brookings Institution, a Washington-based research group. While that lags behind the U.S.’s 5.9 percent, Germany is spending more than the U.K.’s 1.5 percent, France’s 0.7 percent and Italy’s 0.3 percent.

Deficit Balloons

The emergency spending will balloon the EU-wide deficit to 4.4 percent of GDP in 2009 from 2 percent last year, the EU forecasts. Germany is leading the campaign against writing more uncovered checks, saying the bloc needs to refocus on fiscal rectitude once the economy gets back on track.

Under German pressure, EU governments on March 1 ruled out a broad-based bailout for ex-communist countries in eastern Europe, sending eastern European stocks to the lowest level in 5 1/2 years.

EU leaders will consider increasing a 25 billion-euro ceiling on EU aid to countries that are having trouble paying their bills, after doling out 6.5 billion euros to Hungary and 3.1 billion euros to Latvia.

The cap in aid, which covers countries not using the euro, was raised to 25 billion euros from 12 billion euros in December. A further boost would require unanimous agreement by the 27 governments.

The EU will push for stricter oversight of the global financial industry, with a draft summit statement calling for the Group of 20 to commit to regulation of hedge funds and credit-rating companies.

The EU will call for the monitoring of major banks by international regulatory “colleges” to be set up by the end of 2009, according to the document. That may signal a delay from the March 31 deadline the G-20 set in November.

To contact the reporter on this story: James G. Neuger in Brussels at jneuger@bloomberg.net

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