Economic Calendar

Thursday, September 10, 2009

Australia Dollar to Rise Versus Canada’s, Commonwealth Bank Says

By Garfield Reynolds

Sept. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Australia’s dollar is set to rise against Canada’s as the South Pacific nation’s economy improves, increasing its yield advantage, Commonwealth Bank of Australia said today in a note to clients.

“We expect the two-year bond spread to widen as Australia’s economy further improves ahead of Canada’s,” Joseph Capurso, a currency strategist in Sydney at Commonwealth Bank, wrote today in a note to clients.

Australia’s currency traded at 92.76 Canadian cents as of 12:27 p.m. in Sydney, up 1.8 percent over the past month.

To contact the reporter on this story: Garfield Reynolds in Sydney at greynolds1@bloomberg.net





Read more...

Yen Declines Against Euro as Earnings Optimism Boosts Stocks

By Lukanyo Mnyanda and Yoshiaki Nohara

Sept. 10 (Bloomberg) -- The yen fell for a sixth day against the euro as prospects for improved company earnings buoyed stocks, reducing demand for Japan’s currency as a refuge.

The yen declined most versus the Taiwanese dollar and South Korean won after Texas Instruments Inc. raised its third-quarter profit forecast and China Yurun Food Group Ltd. reported increased earnings. The dollar traded near the lowest level since December against the euro on speculation Federal Reserve officials will signal they plan to keep borrowing costs near zero. The pound fell against the dollar before the Bank of England decides whether to increase its asset-purchase program.

“The risk aversion bubble is bursting,” said Neil Jones, head of European hedge fund sales in London at Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd. “People have too much money doing nothing. The yen will stay under pressure against the crosses, less so against the dollar.”

The yen fell to 134.12 per euro as of 9:44 a.m. in London from 133.99 in New York yesterday, when it touched 134.41 yen, the lowest since Aug. 28. The dollar was unchanged at $1.4557 per euro, after sinking to $1.4601 yesterday, the weakest level since Dec. 18. Japan’s currency was at 92.13 per dollar from 92.04 after hitting 91.61 yesterday, the highest since Feb. 17.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index of regional shares gained 1.3 percent and Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index advanced 0.3 percent, a day after the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index climbed to an 11-month high. U.S. stock futures also rose.

Dollar Index Falls

The Dollar Index, which IntercontinentalExchange Inc. uses to track the currency against the euro, yen, pound, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar and Swedish krona, was near the lowest level in almost a year before speeches by Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart and Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn. The index was unchanged at 77.064 today, after dropping yesterday to as low as 76.803, the weakest level since Sept. 26, 2008.

“Everything we’ve heard suggests rates are going to stay low, and that does nothing for the dollar,” said Gavin Friend, a markets strategist at National Australia Bank in London. “We’re going to see all the major currencies pushing higher against the dollar.”

Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said yesterday it’s too early for the Fed to tighten credit, suggesting interest rates in the world’s largest economy will remain near zero. Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher repeated his forecast for a “prolonged period of sluggish economic performance.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Lukanyo Mnyanda in London at lmnyanda@bloomberg.net; Yoshiaki Nohara in Tokyo at ynohara1@bloomberg.net





Read more...

U.S. Foreclosure Filings Top 300,000 for Sixth Straight Month

By Daniel Taub

Sept. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Foreclosure filings in the U.S. exceeded 300,000 for the sixth straight month as job losses that boosted the unemployment rate to a 26-year high left many homeowners unable to keep up with their mortgage payments.

A total of 358,471 properties received a default or auction notice or were seized last month, according to data provider RealtyTrac Inc. That’s up 18 percent from a year earlier, and down 0.5 percent from July, the Irvine, California-based company said in a statement. One in 357 households received a filing.

Foreclosures rose from a year earlier as companies cut payrolls by 216,000 workers last month, boosting the U.S. jobless rate to 9.7 percent, according to Labor Department data released last week. The rise in unemployment is having a bigger impact than an effort by the U.S. government and banks to modify mortgages and prevent foreclosures, said Morris A. Davis, an assistant real-estate professor at the Wisconsin School of Business.

“The foreclosure numbers are largely unemployment related,” Davis, a former Federal Reserve Board economist, said in an interview. “As long as 15 million Americans are unemployed, record foreclosures will continue.”

Foreclosures aren’t abating even as demand is returning to the U.S. housing market after a three-year slump. The number of contracts to buy previously owned homes rose more than forecast in July and increased for a record sixth consecutive month, while mortgage buyer Freddie Mac said the average price rose 1.7 percent in the second quarter.

Nevada Leads

Nevada had the highest foreclosure rate in August, with one in every 62 households receiving a filing, even with an 8.4 percent decrease in foreclosures from July, RealtyTrac said. August filings were up 53 percent from a year earlier, with 17,902 Nevada properties receiving a foreclosure filing.

The second-highest foreclosure rate in August was recorded in Florida, with one in every 140 households receiving a filing, followed by California, where one in 144 households received a foreclosure filing.

A 9.6 percent month-to-month decrease in filings helped lower Arizona’s foreclosure rate to fourth-highest in August from third-highest in July, RealtyTrac said. One in every 150 Arizona households received a foreclosure filing last month, still more than twice the national average, the company said.

Forty-seven banks have begun 360,165 modifications through the U.S. government’s Making Home Affordable program, up from about 235,247 in July, the U.S. Treasury said in a report yesterday.

Mortgage Modifications

Bank of America Corp. and Wells Fargo & Co., among the worst performers of banks in the foreclosure-prevention plan, stepped up their pace of mortgage modifications by at least 60 percent last month. Bank of America more than doubled its number of modifications started to 59,891 in August from July, while Wells Fargo increased by 64 percent to 33,172.

While the loan revamps may prevent some foreclosures, many homeowners facing repossession have prime loans, mortgages considered less risky than the subprime loans blamed for much of the housing crash, and can’t make their payments because of job losses, said Richard K. Green, director of the University of Southern California Lusk Center for Real Estate.

“When people live in a housing market that’s dropped 30 or 40 percent, and they lose their jobs, that’s a recipe for default,” Green said.

About 4.3 percent of U.S. homes, or one in 25 properties, were in foreclosure in the second quarter, the Washington-based Mortgage Bankers Association said last month. That’s the most in three decades of data, and loans overdue by at least 90 days, the point at which foreclosure proceedings typically begin, rose to 7.97 percent, the highest on record.

Michigan, Idaho

In the RealtyTrac survey, Michigan, Idaho, Utah, Colorado, Georgia and Illinois accounted for the other states with the top 10 highest rates of foreclosure filings. Six states accounted for 62 percent of the nation’s foreclosure filings.

New Jersey had the 11th highest rate with 8,316 filings, a 28 percent increase from a year earlier. Connecticut ranked 24th with 2,189 filings, a 22 percent increase. New York had the 39th highest rate with 5,350 filings, down 2.3 percent.

Las Vegas had the highest foreclosure rate among metropolitan areas with a population of 200,000 or more. One in every 53 households received a notice in August, up 48 percent from a year earlier and down 11 percent from July. Also in Nevada, the Reno-Sparks area had the seventh-highest foreclosure rate, with one in 86 households receiving a filing, RealtyTrac said.

California’s Performance

California had six metropolitan areas among the top 10. Stockton and Merced ranked second and third; Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Vallejo-Fairfield and Modesto were fourth through sixth; and Bakersfield was 10th. Two Florida metropolitan areas were in the top 10, with Orlando- Kissimmee at No. 8 and Cape Coral-Fort Myers at No. 9, according to RealtyTrac, which collects data from more than 2,200 counties representing 90 percent of the U.S. population.

To contact the reporter on this story: Daniel Taub in Los Angeles at dtaub@bloomberg.net.





Read more...

ArcelorMittal, Posco May Start Building India Plants

By Debarati Roy

Sept. 10 (Bloomberg) -- ArcelorMittal, the world’s biggest steelmaker, and Posco may start building $32 billion of factories in India next year as domestic demand defies the global recession, Steel Minister Virbhadra Singh said.

“Posco is very keen and would like to start tomorrow,” Singh said in an interview. “I’m hopeful Posco will begin work next year. ArcelorMittal should also be able to start next year, at least on one of its two plants.”

Posco, ArcelorMittal and Indian rivals such as Tata Steel Ltd. are rushing to build factories in the country as demand increases for cars, roads and bridges. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s administration, which returned to power in May, aims to resolve land disputes and delays in allocating mining licenses to mills to help achieve as much as 9 percent economic growth.

“Posco and Arcelormittal will build their plants once they are guaranteed iron ore assets and problem-free land in the country,” said Rakesh Arora, an analyst at Macquarie Group Ltd. in Mumbai. “The government is trying to simplify mining laws and once this is done, the companies will definitely build the plants here because demand is assured.”

ArcelorMittal Chief Executive Officer Lakshmi Mittal met the steel minister recently to discuss the problems of acquiring land and mining licenses.

L.N. Mittal met me a few days ago and put forward the problems,” the steel minister said. “I’m using my good offices to see the state governments expedite the process. ArcelorMittal is looking at how the global market shapes up and wants to synchronize its production with the global situation.”

Shares of Posco, Asia’s third-biggest steelmaker, rose 2.5 percent to 478,500 won as of 2:48 p.m. in Seoul. ArcelorMittal gained 1.7 percent to 26.12 euros at the close of Amsterdam trading yesterday.

Delayed Projects

Pohang, South Korea-based Posco’s $12 billion, 12 million metric ton plant in eastern Orissa state, potentially the single-biggest overseas investment in India, has been delayed since plans were drawn up in 2005. ArcelorMittal aims to build a mill in Orissa state and another in Jharkhand with a total capacity of 24 million tons and at a cost of $20 billion.

“I’m talking to state governments to ensure the companies get mining leases and can start work,” the steel minister said yesterday in his Udyog Bhavan office in New Delhi, without specifying the measures he plans to implement. “India needs extra capacity because soon we’ll not be able to meet demand.”

ArcelorMittal is looking to build its plants “as soon as possible,” Vijay Kumar Bhatnagar, head of the India unit, said in a phone interview yesterday. “Of the two projects, we are slightly ahead in the Jharkhand project as we have secured a mining license in the state,” he said.

Mining License

The company secured a permit to mine iron ore in 500 acres of land in Jharkhand in June 2008, three years after signing an agreement with the state government to build the plant. The states of Jharkhand, Orissa and Chhattisgarh account for 70 percent of India’s coal reserves and 55 percent of its iron ore, according to McKinsey & Co.

Luxembourg-based ArcelorMittal agreed to buy a 5.6 percent stake in India’s Uttam Galva Steels Ltd. on Sept. 3, its first acquisition in the South Asian nation. The purchase may help India-born Mittal gain from demand that’s forecast by the government to grow as much as 10 percent in the year ending March 31.

India this year overtook China in car exports and is challenging Thailand and South Korea as an alternative production center in Asia.

Posco Waiting

Posco aims to start construction early next year after land acquisition problems are resolved, spokesman Choi Doo Jin said on Aug. 27. The company has yet to win a license from the Orissa government to mine iron ore.

“The issue has to be resolved by the local people and the state government,” Steel Minister Singh said. “I am ensuring the process is expedited,” without giving details.

India plans to cut permit delays and attract overseas capital through “simpler” mining laws, Mines Minister B.K. Handique said last month. The legislation will be presented to parliament in the winter session this year, he said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Debarati Roy in Mumbai at droy5@bloomberg.net





Read more...

Alcoa in Talks With Automakers to Tap Chinese Aluminum Demand

By Bloomberg News

Sept. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Alcoa Inc., the largest U.S. producer of aluminum, is in talks to develop and supply metal for lightweight, energy efficient vehicles in China as passenger car sales surged by a record.

“The automobile sector is a strong consumer of aluminum and I believe it will become more so if you combine lightweight and energy efficiency” needs in the future, Chief Executive Officer Klaus Kleinfeld said today. “There are some companies we’re talking to, and that’s an area we’re seeking to build activities,” he said, without giving details.

Passenger car sales in China soared a record 90 percent last month as tax cuts and subsidies spurred demand, bringing the nation closer to overtaking the U.S. as the world’s largest auto market. Rising vehicle sales in China, as well as building demand, will drive aluminum consumption, Kleinfeld said.

“China is ahead of the curve, and I’m positive of things that are going on,” Kleinfeld said while attending the World Economic Forum in Dalian, China.

The Asian nation consumes about seven kilograms of aluminum per capita, compared with 35 kilograms in the U.S., he said. Kleinfeld on Sept. 3 raised Alcoa’s forecast for global aluminum consumption because of demand from China.

China’s demand will rise 4 percent this year, compared with a previous prediction of no growth, Kleinfeld had said. That changes the company’s outlook for global demand to a decline of 5.5 percent from a previous forecast of minus 7 percent.

“Demand in the U.S. is coming back a little and it’s a mixed picture in Europe,” Kleinfeld said today. The company is open to ventures in China, he added.

General Motors Co., Bayerische Motoren Werke AG and Volkswagen AG make cars in China through local ventures. Alcoa has an existing pact with Zhengzhou Yutong Bus Co. to develop lighter, aluminum-framed buses in China.

--Xiao Yu. Editors: Tan Hwee Ann, Teo Chian Wei.

To contact the reporter on this story: Xiao Yu in Beijing on yxiao@bloomberg.net





Read more...

AngloGold Risks Congo Jungle, Mining’s Last Frontier

By Thomas Biesheuvel

Sept. 10 (Bloomberg) -- AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. and Randgold Resources Ltd. are pushing into one of the world’s poorest and most unstable countries to boost reserves as the metal trades close to a record and global reserves dwindle.

The two companies are buying control of a deposit in the Democratic Republic of Congo containing as much as $22 billion of gold at current prices. The project is in an area increasingly torn by fighting between the government and Ugandan rebel group the Lord’s Resistance Army.

The move puts AngloGold and Randgold at the vanguard of miners moving into risky areas like Congo, which has been beset by more than a decade of violence that left 5 million dead. Gold output in countries such as South Africa has dropped, and the price has risen for eight straight years, making Congo’s untapped reserves look more attractive.

“If you want to retain your position then you’ve got to look at places like the Congo, because that’s where the very richest deposits are,” said John McGloin, a mining analyst at Arbuthnot Securities Ltd. in London who has a “buy” rating on Randgold. “While it might be highly enticing, it doesn’t come without baggage.”

The rebels, who have battled Uganda for 20 years, have been more active since September 2008 in Haut-Uele territory, a region of Orientale province in Congo about the size of Maine, where the Moto project lies. AngloGold and Randgold have agreed to pay about $520 million for its owner, Australia’s Moto Goldmines Ltd.

Killings, Abductions

The Lord’s Resistance Army made an unprecedented 55 attacks in July in the Faradje area, about 90 kilometers (56 miles) north of Moto, and drove 125,000 people from their homes in Haut-Uele in August, the United Nations Refugee Agency said. It killed 1,273 people and abducted 655 children and 1,427 adults in the past year in Orientale. More than 540,000 people have been displaced in the province. In January, 100 civilians were massacred in the gold-mining town of Tora, 65 kilometers from Moto, according to the UN.

Moto Goldmines delayed restarting operations after the Christmas holidays because the rebels looted nearby villages. The company “reinforced” security measures at all levels and operations were “held back” earlier in the year because of rebel attacks about 50 kilometers to 100 kilometers from the site, General Manager Louis Watum said.

“There is some uncertainty, that’s true, but it’s better than it was,” he said.

Mali Mines

The rebels “are highly mobile and extremely resilient,” said Philippe de Pontet, an analyst at New York-based political risk research firm Eurasia Group. “The Congolese do not have the capability to root out this kind of insurgency.”

Mark Bristow, chief executive officer of Jersey, Channel Islands-based Randgold, said he’s relying on the governments of Congo and Uganda to curb the violence to protect the investment that the mine will bring. The company also has mines in Mali and is developing projects in Senegal and Ivory Coast.

“We’re an African business,” Bristow said in a London interview. “We make it our business to know how to work there.”

Randgold fell 84 pence, or 2 percent, to 4,188 pence at 9:12 a.m. in London trading. The shares have more than doubled in the past year, leading gains in the U.K. benchmark FTSE 100 Index. AngloGold rose 4.30 rand, or 1.4 percent, to 316.95 rand in Johannesburg.

Worker Withdrawal

AngloGold, the continent’s biggest gold producer, withdrew workers from some of its Congo exploration camps in November because of fighting between government forces and rebels in Orientale. Johannesburg-based AngloGold considers Congo to have become more stable since then, company spokesman Alan Fine said.

Gold for immediate delivery has gained 13 percent this year and on Sept. 8 rose above $1,000 an ounce in London for the first time since March 2008. Bullion for immediate delivery added $1.05, or 0.1 percent, to $993.35 an ounce at 9:15 a.m. local time.

The Moto mine may cost about $500 million to build, estimates Jonathan Guy, an analyst at Investec Ltd. in London. Randgold says bringing it into production in 2015 would require two years of trucking equipment across the border with Uganda, 150 kilometers to the east.

Moto is part of the so-called Congo Craton, a geological formation that’s the only “big” African gold resource still under-explored and unexploited, Bristow said.

‘More Will Follow’

“Central Africa is one of the last gold frontiers to exploit,” said Mark Smith, an analyst at GMP Securities in London. “To unlock the potential in the DRC you need one or two flag-bearers to come in, then more will follow.”

Congo’s gold output was 6 metric tons, or just 1.2 percent of total African production in 2008. Production may reach 25 tons by 2015, said William Tankard, an analyst at U.K. research firm GFMS Ltd., as outside investors establish new mines.

The world’s largest producers need to find new sources of the metal. Global mine output declined since 2005 and was 2,415.6 tons in 2008, a 12-year low, according to GFMS. North American production fell by a third in the past decade while output from South Africa, once the largest producer, sank more than 50 percent.

AngloGold and Randgold will pay a mixture of cash and Randgold shares for Moto Goldmines. The deal, which still needs Moto Goldmines shareholders’ approval, will see investors receive as much as about $244 million in cash and about 3.9 million Randgold shares. That’s equal to about $520 million based on Randgold’s closing price in London yesterday.

For the acquirers, the transaction is well-timed, Guy said.

“They want to pick this up now,” Guy said. “In five years time, if the DRC is politically stable, they wouldn’t be able to buy it.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Thomas Biesheuvel in London tbiesheuvel@bloomberg.net





Read more...

Soybeans Gain as Crude Oil Rally, Dollar Decline Boost Outlook

By Luzi Ann Javier

Sept. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Soybeans advanced as rising crude oil prices and a decline in the dollar bolstered investors’ confidence in improved global commodity demand.

The oilseed gained as much as 0.6 percent after crude climbed for a fourth day on an industry report showing U.S. stockpiles dropped the most in a year last week. The dollar fell to its lowest in almost nine months against the euro, boosting the appeal of commodities priced in the U.S. currency.

“The oilseed market will remain reasonably supported until the first quarter of next year,” Luke Mathews, a commodity strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said by phone from Sydney. Oilseed and grain investors “will keenly watch the development in those outside markets, particularly the dollar and the oil market.”

Soybeans for November delivery climbed 0.5 percent to $9.3325 a bushel in after-hours electronic trading on the Chicago Board of Trade at 3:12 p.m. Singapore time.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture probably will forecast a record soybean harvest of 3.251 billion bushels, up 1.6 percent from its August estimate, according to the average estimate of 30 analysts in a Bloomberg News survey. The department’s next forecast is due Sept. 11.

Tight Supply

The record crop in the U.S., the world’s largest soybean grower and exporter, “cannot solve the global supply problem,” Oil World Executive Director Thomas Mielke said Sept. 7. Supply of 10 major oilseeds from September through February may fall by 5 million tons from a year earlier, he said.

“We’re likely to see prices supported between $8.50 and $9.50 until the South American harvest rolls through next year,” Commonwealth’s Mathews said.

Crude oil rose as much as 1.5 percent to $72.40 a barrel and last traded at $72.37. U.S. stockpiles fell by 7.22 million barrels in the week ended Sept. 4, the biggest weekly drop since Sept. 5, 2008, the American Petroleum Institute said yesterday.

Wheat for December delivery climbed as much as 0.6 percent to $4.5875 a bushel, its first gain in seven days. The most- actively traded contract was 0.4 percent higher at $4.58. December-delivery corn was at $3.115 a bushel, up 0.6 percent.

Wheat’s relative strength index, a measure of price momentum some investors use to determine if a commodity price is about to rise or drop, has been below 30 since Sept. 8. A reading below 30 is seen as a signal prices may gain.

“We’ve seen a continued slide in prices over the last month,” Mathews said. “The global supply-and-demand balance sheet is certainly depressing wheat prices.”

Australia, the world’s fourth-largest wheat exporter, will have “significant” quantities of the grain available for export, Agriculture Minister Tony Burke said today.

Wheat harvests in France, the European Union’s largest exporter, may rise 1.3 percent to 37.5 million tons this year, crops office FranceAgriMer said yesterday.

Inventories in Canada, the world’s second-largest wheat exporter, held 6.56 million metric tons on July 31, 49 percent more than a year earlier, Statistics Canada said yesterday.

To contact the reporter on this story: Luzi Ann Javier in Manila at ljavier@bloomberg.net





Read more...

Japan Stocks Rise Most in 2 Weeks on Recovery Hope; Hoya Gains

By Masaki Kondo

Sept. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese stocks rose the most in two weeks and every industry group advanced, tracking gains in the U.S. on speculation earnings and the economy will recover.

Hoya Corp., Japan’s largest maker of eyeglass lenses, gained 4.3 percent after the Nikkei newspaper reported its Pentax camera division will likely avoid a loss. Omron Corp., the maker of the world’s first automated traffic signals, climbed 4.6 percent after KBC Securities said the company will exceed its earnings forecast. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. added 4.4 percent, rebounding from an 11 percent loss in the past six sessions and leading banks higher.

“Investors want to buy banks and manufacturers on dips because the outlook for a continuing economic recovery remains intact, and they expect earnings at these companies to improve,” said Naoki Fujiwara, chief fund manager at Shinkin Asset Management Co., which oversees the equivalent of $3.9 billion in Tokyo.

The Nikkei 225 Stock Average rose 2 percent to close at 10,513.67 in Tokyo. The broader Topix index added 2 percent to 958.49, with six times as many shares gaining as declining. Both gauges advanced the most since Aug. 24, and the number of shares traded on the Tokyo Stock Exchange was the highest this month.

Manufacturing stocks climbed even after a Cabinet Office report showed Japanese machinery orders dropped more than economists had estimated in July. Orders are regarded as an indicator of capital spending in the next three to six months.

Risk Appetite

Investors are betting a recovery in profits will accelerate in 2010, helping to justify valuations for this year that are the highest among the world’s biggest equity markets. Nikkei listed shares trade at 23 times next year’s estimated earnings, almost half the level for 2009, according to Bloomberg data.

In New York, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index climbed 0.8 percent yesterday to the highest level since Oct. 6. Hiroyuki Nakai, chief strategist at Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings Inc., said that showed investors are willing to take on more risk in search of higher returns.

Hoya climbed 4.3 percent to 2,200 yen, the steepest advance since July 31. The company’s Pentax division, which makes endoscopes and cameras, may break even or post an operating profit of “several hundred million” yen for the July-September period, the Nikkei said today.

Omron jumped 4.6 percent to 1,669 yen in Osaka trading, the highest close in almost a year. KBC Securities rated the stock “positive” in new coverage, saying the first-half operating loss will be narrower than Omron’s forecast, owing to cost cuts.

Banks Gain

Mitsubishi UFJ, Japan’s largest listed bank, climbed 4.4 percent to 550 yen. Mizuho Financial Group Inc., the Japanese stock with the highest number of shares being sold short, gained 2 percent to 204 yen and was the country’s most-actively traded stock by value today.

Short sellers borrow shares and sell them at current prices in a bet that prices will fall, then seek to buy them back more cheaply and keep the difference as profit. They lose money if prices rise.

Banks, which were the biggest losers in Tokyo in the previous two days, had today’s steepest advance among the Topix’s 33 industry groups, all of which rose.

“Even a sharp earnings recovery in 2010 has been fully priced into the market, so institutional investors are reluctant to buy and only speculators are active,” said Mitsushige Akino, who oversees the equivalent of $652 million at Ichiyoshi Investment Management Co. in Tokyo.

To contact the reporter for this story: Masaki Kondo in Tokyo at mkondo3@bloomberg.net.





Read more...

Asian Stocks Rise to 1-Year High as Earnings Outlook Improves

By Patrick Rial

Sept. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks rose, sending the MSCI Asia Pacific Index to the highest level since the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., as profit from China Yurun Food Group rose and Texas Instruments Inc. lifted its forecasts.

China Yurun Food Group Ltd., the country’s biggest hog processor, jumped 7.4 percent after first-half profit rose 37 percent. Elpida Memory Inc., Japan’s largest computer memory maker, gained 3.4 percent after chipmaker Texas Instruments raised its third-quarter sales and earnings forecasts. Li & Fung Ltd., the biggest supplier of clothes and toys to Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp., gained 5 percent after saying it is seeing “pretty strong” re-orders from retailers.

“Investors are looking to upcoming earnings reports where we’re likely to see a fair number of companies lifting forecasts,” said Junichi Misawa, who helps oversee about $3 billion of Japanese equities at STB Asset Management Co. in Tokyo. “The market should stay strong into the end of the year, although after that we could see a pullback as stimulus measures run their course.”

The MSCI Asia Pacific climbed 1.3 percent to 117.01 as of 5:49 p.m. in Tokyo. It earlier touched 117.37, the highest intraday level since Sept. 10, 2008. That date is five days before Lehman filed for bankruptcy, helping to cause the credit market seizure that dragged the global economy into recession. The MSCI gauge has surged 65 percent in the past six months on speculation growth is recovering.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average climbed 2 percent. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index gained 1.1 percent. Benchmark indexes throughout Asia rose, except in Pakistan and China. The Shanghai Composite Index sank 0.7 percent, the first drop in eight days.

Gorgon Project

Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering Co., the world’s second-largest shipyard by sales, surged 13 percent, the most in the MSCI Asia gauge, on speculation the company will win orders from Chevron Corp.’s Gorgon natural gas project in Australia.

China Unicom Ltd., the country’s No. 2 mobile-phone carrier, gained 3.2 percent after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. upgraded the stock. Uranium producer Paladin Energy Ltd. dropped 3.1 percent in Sydney after issuing new shares.

Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index added 0.3 percent. The gauge climbed 0.8 percent yesterday to an 11-month high, as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. recommended industrial companies and investor Michael Price said he’s finding value in American equities.

Stocks on the MSCI Asia Pacific are priced at an average 24 times estimated earnings, up from 14 times at the start of the year. Investors have bid up valuations amid data signaling the global economy is pulling out of recession.

Earnings Surprises

The U.S. Federal Reserve’s Beige Book showed yesterday 11 of its 12 regional banks reported signs of a stable or improving economy in July and August.

China’s house prices in 70 cities rose 2 percent in August, double the gain in July, the National Bureau of Statistics said today, after sales and investment surged. Japan is due to report a revised second-quarter growth figure tomorrow, which economists forecast will show the economy expanded at a 3.7 percent annualized rate.

The rally in Asian stocks since March has also been driven by profit reports in the past month that have exceeded analyst estimates. Some 35 percent of the 641 companies in the MSCI Asia Pacific Index that have reported net income since early July have beaten analyst predictions, while about 21 percent have missed, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Economic Recovery

“There’s an expectation that the V-shaped economic recovery is alive and well,” said Rob Patterson, who helps manage $3.3 billion at Argo Investments Ltd. in Adelaide. “Sentiment can sometimes run markets and at the moment it seems to be feeding on itself.”

Ample liquidity has caused “bubbles” in stocks, commodities and real estate, Zhu Min, Bank of China Ltd.’s vice president, said in an interview today. The company lent more money in the first half of the year than any other Chinese bank.

China Yurun added 7.4 percent to HK$15.06 after the company said first-half profit rose 37 percent to HK$841 million.

Elpida climbed 3.4 percent to 1,319 yen. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., the world’s largest custom-chip maker, added 2.4 percent to NT$63.50. Sumco Corp., the world’s second-largest maker of silicon wafers, rose 3.9 percent to 2,270 yen.

Texas Instruments, the second-largest U.S. chipmaker, said third-quarter profit will be as high as 41 cents per share, compared with analyst projections for 35 cents. The company said it is seeing improving demand for chips used in some industrial applications, computers and consumer electronics.

Telecom Operators

Li & Fung gained 5 percent to HK$30.20. Bruce Rockowitz, the company’s president, told Bloomberg Television today that spending by consumers has started to “creep up.”

Thailand’s mobile phone providers climbed after the country’s telecommunications regulator announced a plan to auction licenses to provide high-speed services by year-end. Advanced Info Service Pcl, the largest, rose 2.1 percent to 97 baht. Total Access Communication Pcl, the second biggest, jumped 5.7 percent to 41.75 baht.

In Seoul, Daewoo rose 13 percent to 20,950 won, while Hyundai Heavy Industries Co., the world’s biggest shipyard, jumped 4.6 percent to 195,500 won.

“There are expectations that the partners in the Gorgon gas project in Australia will select the winners to build facilities this month,” said Lee Jae Won, an analyst at Tong Yang Investment Corp. in Seoul. “There is talk that Daewoo Shipbuilding and Hyundai Heavy may be the winners in the bid.”

Unicom, Paladin

Liquified natural gas exports from Gorgon, Australia’s largest resources project, may be valued at A$300 billion over 20 years, Prime Minister Kevin Rudd said on Sept. 1.

Unicom, China’s No. 2 mobile-phone carrier, climbed 3.2 percent to HK$11.06. Goldman Sachs raised its rating on the stock to “buy” from “neutral” because the introduction of so-called commercial WCDMA services in 285 cities this month will allow Unicom to increase its market share.

Paladin, a uranium producer with mines in Africa and projects in Australia, slumped 3.1 percent to A$4.75 after raising A$419 million ($360 million) in a share sale to fund acquisitions and exploration.

In Hong Kong, Wing Hang Bank Ltd., one of the city’s four publicly traded family-run banks, added 2.5 percent to HK$74.95 on takeover speculation after the company said it has been approached by third parties.

Brother Industries Ltd. climbed 6.3 percent to 1,092 yen, set for the highest close since October 2008. Executives at rival Lexmark International Inc., the second-largest U.S. printer maker, said at a conference yesterday that most segments of the company’s business grew in the second quarter.

To contact the reporter for this story: Patrick Rial in Tokyo at prial@bloomberg.net.





Read more...

German Stocks Rise a Fifth Day; Commerzbank, ThyssenKrupp Climb

By Julie Cruz

Sept. 10 (Bloomberg) -- German stocks advanced for a fifth consecutive day, the longest winning streak since July, as Commerzbank AG rallied and Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc recommended ThyssenKrupp AG shares.

The benchmark DAX Index rose 0.7 percent to 5,612.34 at 9:37 a.m. in Frankfurt, after closing at the highest level in 2009 yesterday. The gauge has soared 53 percent since March 6 as companies worldwide from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to Bayer AG posted better-than-projected earnings and economic data signaled the global recession is nearing an end. The broader HDAX gained 0.8 percent today.

Commerzbank, Germany’s second-largest bank, added 7.7 percent to 9.15 euros. The stock reached a high for the year yesterday after Chief Executive Officer Martin Blessing said the company plans to return the remaining 5 billion euros ($7.2 billion) of unused debt guarantees that it received from the country’s Soffin bank-rescue fund.

ThyssenKrupp, the nation’s biggest steelmaker, soared 3 percent to 24.09 euros after RBS raised the stock to “buy” from “hold.” Separately, SIAG Schaaf Industrie AG said it’s acquiring the company’s Nordseewerke in Emden, Germany.

SAP AG, the world’s largest maker of business-management software, climbed 1.7 percent to 34.76 euros after reiterating its forecast for the rest of the year. The company will be “vigilant” on costs and hasn’t made plans to begin hiring again, Bill McDermott, president of SAP’s global field operations, said yesterday at a Citigroup Inc. technology conference in New York.

Texas Instrument Forecast

Infineon Technologies AG, Europe’s second-biggest maker of semiconductors, rose 2.6 percent to 3.95 euros, while Aixtron AG, a maker of machines to coat semiconductors, increased 2.7 percent to 15.46 euros.

Texas Instruments Inc., the second-largest U.S. chipmaker, raised its third-quarter sales and profit forecasts because of improving demand for chips used in computers and consumer electronics. ASML Holding NV, Europe’s biggest maker of semiconductor equipment, also boosted its sales forecast.

Bilfinger Berger AG jumped 3.9 percent to 46.48 euros, on course for the highest close in more than a year. Germany’s second-biggest builder was raised to “buy” from “hold” at Societe Generale SA, which said in a report the services business is “holding up better than expected, leading us to raise our estimates from 2009.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Julie Cruz in Frankfurt at jcruz6@bloomberg.net.





Read more...

U.K. Stocks Rise for Fifth Day; Thomas Cook, BHP Billiton Climb

By Adam Haigh

Sept. 10 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. stocks rose for a fifth straight day, led by raw-material producers, on speculation central banks will continue to pursue stimulus measures to revive economic growth.

Thomas Cook Group Plc climbed 2.6 percent as banks sold the 43.9 percent stake in the company once held by Arcandor AG. BHP Billiton Ltd. and Rio Tinto Group led gains among mining shares.

The benchmark FTSE 100 Index rose 9.3, or 0.2 percent, to 5,013.6 as of 8:36 a.m. in London, extending an 11-month high. The FTSE All-Share Index climbed 0.2 percent today and Ireland’s ISEQ Index rose 0.7 percent.

The benchmark measure for U.K. equities has rallied 43 percent since March 3 as earnings at companies from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to Roche Holdings AG and an unexpected return to growth in the French and German economies boosted global stock markets. The six-month rally has pushed the FTSE 100’s price-to-earnings ratio to 74.3, the most expensive level in seven years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg based on reported profits.

Bank of England policy makers will probably keep pursuing their 175 billion-pound ($289 billion) stimulus program today as the British economy shows signs of lagging behind the global recovery.

The central bank, led by Governor Mervyn King, will reiterate the size of its plan to buy bonds with newly created money, according to all 35 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Policy makers will also keep the benchmark interest rate at a record low of 0.5 percent, all 60 economists in a separate survey said.

Thomas Cook Gains

Thomas Cook added 2.6 percent to 251.3 pence. Banks began placing the shares with investors yesterday afternoon and the sale has now ended, according to people involved in the sale. The stock sold is likely to be priced at between 240 pence and 245 pence, they said.

The placing is being run by the brokerage arms of Commerzbank AG, Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc and UBS AG. Commerzbank, RBS and Bayerische Landesbank were among Arcandor creditors who seized the Thomas Cook stake when the German retailer filed for insolvency.

Rio Tinto added 1.5 percent to 2,578 pence. BHP Billiton gained 0.8 percent to 1,677 pence.

To contact the reporter on this story: Adam Haigh in London at ahaigh1@bloomberg.net





Read more...

European, Asian Shares Rise, U.S. Futures Gain; STMicro Climbs

By Alexis Xydias

Sept. 10 (Bloomberg) -- European and Asian shares climbed, sending the MSCI World Index higher for a sixth day, after Texas Instruments Inc. and ASML Holding NV raised their forecasts and China Yurun Food Group Ltd. reported higher earnings. U.S. index futures gained.

STMicroelectronics NV advanced 2.8 percent after Texas Instruments, the second-biggest U.S. chipmaker, boosted its sales and profit estimates on improving demand for analog chips. ASML, Europe’s largest maker of semiconductor equipment, soared 6.4 percent. China Yurun, the country’s biggest hog processor, jumped 7.4 percent as profit rose 37 percent.

The MSCI World added 0.2 percent to 1,108.92 at 10 a.m. in London, the highest level since October 2008. The index of 23 developed nations has surged 61 percent since March 9 as companies from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to Roche Holding AG reported better-than-estimated results and the French and German economies unexpectedly expanded.

“The market is attractive even if we have had some very good performances,” said Jacques Porta, a fund manager at Ofi Patrimoine in Paris, which oversees about $425 million in equities. “Both macroeconomics and microeconomics, the reports from companies, seem to be supportive. The market could accelerate in the short term.”

‘High Quality Stocks’

Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index increased for a sixth day, adding 0.4 percent. The regional gauge is valued at 46.4 times profit, the highest level since 2003, Bloomberg data show.

“The market is fair value,” said Koen Jonckheere at KBC Asset Management in Brussels, whose KBC European equity fund is up 50 percent since March 9. “You can get high quality stocks at fair value. If you buy stocks you should be in for the long term.”

Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index advanced 0.3 percent today, indicating the benchmark gauge for U.S. stocks may rise for a fifth day. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rallied 1.3 percent to a one-year high as Li & Fung Ltd., the biggest supplier of clothes and toys to Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp., said it is seeing “pretty strong” re-orders from retailers.

The Shanghai Composite Index slipped 0.7 percent as Zhu Min, vice president of Bank of China Ltd. said increased lending has caused “bubbles” in stocks, commodities and real estate.

“The potential risk is that a lot of liquidity goes to the asset market,” Zhu said in an interview in Dalian today. “So you see asset bubbles in commodities, stocks and real estate, not only in China, but everywhere.”

ASML, STMicro

ASML surged 6.4 percent to 21.40 euros, leading a gauge of European technology stocks to the steepest gain among 19 industry groups on the Stoxx 600. The Dutch company said net sales will probably be more than 500 million euros ($728 million) in both the third and the fourth quarters as customers resume buying its machines.

STMicroelectronics, Europe’s biggest semiconductor maker, rose 2.8 percent to 6.64 euros, and Infineon Technologies AG, the second-largest, climbed 2.6 percent to 3.95 euros. Elpida Memory Inc., Japan’s biggest computer memory maker, added 3.4 percent to 1,319 yen in Tokyo.

Texas Instruments said yesterday that third-quarter profit will be 37 cents to 41 cents a share on sales of $2.73 billion to $2.87 billion. Analysts had projected profit of 35 cents a share and revenue of $2.68 billion on average, according to a Bloomberg survey.

Demand is beginning to recover for so-called analog chips - - semiconductors used in devices such as electronic utility meters, computer disk drives and consumer electronics. China and India led the rebound, Texas Instruments said. The shares were little changed at $25.14 in German trading.

‘Good Proxy’

“Texas Instruments is a good proxy for STMicroelectronics and Infineon,” Jerome Ramel and Steve Babureck, analysts at Exane BNP Paribas in Paris, wrote in a report. “We believe STMicroelectronics and Infineon will beat their guidance as well.”

China Yurun jumped 7.4 percent to HK$15.06 after first- half profit rose 37 percent to HK$841 million ($108.5 million).

Li & Fung gained 5 percent to HK$30.20. Bruce Rockowitz, the company’s president, told Bloomberg Television today that spending by consumers has started to “creep up.”

U.K. house prices rose 0.8 percent in August, a second straight gain, as low borrowing costs lured homebuyers, a report by Halifax showed today. That missed economists’ forecasts for a 1 percent increase.

Bank of England policy makers will probably keep pursuing their 175 billion-pound ($290 billion) emergency stimulus program today as the British economy shows signs of lagging behind the global recovery.

The central bank, led by Governor Mervyn King, will reiterate the size of its plan to buy bonds with newly created money, according to all 35 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Policy makers will also keep the benchmark interest rate at a record low of 0.5 percent, all 60 economists in a separate survey said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Alexis Xydias in London at axydias@bloomberg.net.





Read more...

London Suicide Connects Lehman Lesson Missed by Hong Kong Woman

By Mark Pittman and Bob Ivry

Sept. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Yu Lia Chun, a retired hospital orderly in Hong Kong, never heard of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. before she got a call last September from her banker.

“He said, ‘Did you hear the news? Something has happened to Lehman,’” Yu, 66, recalled in an interview in June. “I didn’t get it.”

Yu, who has a sixth-grade education, said she thought her money was in a savings account. She didn’t know she had lent it to a bankrupt American securities firm. Eventually, she found out that her HK$1.2 million ($155,000) nest egg was gone. Her children lost another HK$3.8 million because Yu had persuaded them to make similar investments.

“There is no way a person like me could understand any of this,” Yu said, dabbing her eyes with a tissue in a coffee shop in Hong Kong’s financial district. “Sometimes I feel like jumping off a building.”

What hit Yu and her family was a tidal wave triggered halfway around the world by the biggest bankruptcy in U.S. history. The Sept. 15, 2008, collapse of Lehman, with $613 billion in liabilities, had unforeseen and far-flung consequences that devastated those, like Yu, who didn’t know their fates were tied to the New York-based investment bank.

‘Quicker This Time’

The chief operating officer of a private-equity firm in London jumped in front of a commuter train because he blamed himself for leaving the company’s money in a Lehman account, according to a coroner’s report. The Israeli managers of a hotel construction project on the island of West Caicos, northeast of Cuba, were taken hostage by Chinese workers when an anticipated Lehman loan didn’t materialize and wages weren’t paid. In Hong Kong, Yu and thousands of others who had invested in Lehman products camped out in the rain, thumping drums and chanting, “Give us our money back.”

The realization that a U.S. securities firm so woven into the financial system couldn’t pay its debts radiated out from New York, panicking investors around the world. It was a doomsday scenario that former International Monetary Fund chief economist Simon H. Johnson likened to Kurt Vonnegut Jr.’s 1963 novel “Cat’s Cradle,” in which a single crystal of the fictitious substance ice-nine hardens all of the planet’s water.

What differentiated Lehman from previous financial crises was how fast the panic spread, said Richard Sylla, an economic and financial historian at New York University’s Leonard N. Stern School of Business in New York.

“Communications made things happen faster,” Sylla said, describing how it took six months for the 1931 failure of Austria’s Creditanstalt bank to put stress on the British financial system. “The news of everything got spread around much quicker this time.”

Goldman Sachs Debt

The freezing of global credit markets following Lehman’s demise began with professionals who traded commercial paper in New York. They were the first to feel the chill when the Reserve Primary Fund, the oldest money market fund, was inundated with requests for redemptions and seized up hours after the bankruptcy filing. The $785 million that Reserve had lent to Lehman was deemed worthless by 4 p.m. the next day.

Fear that more banks and financial firms might fail meant most investors stopped lending to anyone other than the government. Even New York-based Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which earned $11.6 billion in 2007, more than any U.S. securities firm in history, wasn’t immune. The average annual cost of insuring $10 million of Goldman Sachs debt for five years soared to a record $545,000 from $182,557 in the three days after Lehman failed, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Plummeting Prices

Lehman’s demise triggered a panic. Money fund managers were forced to raise cash to pay off investors. They tried selling what securities they held and couldn’t. The market was flooded, and prices were plummeting -- if prices could be obtained at all. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index suffered its worst decline in six years. Mistrust leaked into the corporate bond market.

The most widely traded 30-year bond of General Electric Capital Corp., the world’s biggest issuer of commercial paper, dropped by as much as 30 cents on the dollar to 62 cents by Sept. 18 because of doubts that GE would be able to persuade money funds to renew its short-term notes.

At that price, the three-day loss for owners of the issue was more than $1.9 billion, according to prices provided by Trace, the bond-trade reporting system of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority.

The U.S. responded within a week to guarantee money markets and bank-to-bank lending. Within a month, Congress agreed to spend $700 billion to prop up banks under the Troubled Asset Relief Program, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. guaranteed new bank debt, and Federal Reserve lending to financial institutions ballooned by $1 trillion.

Lehman Minibonds

Those programs, which succeeded in stemming the panic, remain in place today. What they didn’t do was save Yu and thousands of other investors in Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan and elsewhere who had bought equity-linked notes or so-called minibonds connected to Lehman.

Equity-linked notes combine attributes of both bonds and stock by investing part of the proceeds in share options and the remainder in fixed income. Minibonds are custom-made securities linked to the creditworthiness of companies, backed by collateralized-debt obligations and sold in denominations of $5,000. They functioned like credit-default swaps in reverse, where the investor stands to lose his principal when the firm named in the note can’t pay its debts.

‘Information Asymmetry’

Yu, a mother of six who emigrated from mainland China in 1962, didn’t have a chance, according to Joseph Stiglitz, a Columbia University economics professor who won a Nobel Prize for his work on the effect of unequal access to information on buyers and sellers in financial markets.

“As securities got more complex, the opportunities for gaming, to the disadvantage of ordinary people, increased,” Stiglitz said. “Complexity opened up new venues for information asymmetry, which banks exploited.”

Asia became Lehman’s highest growth region in 2007, taking in more than $3.1 billion in revenue, or 16 percent of the firm’s business. Revenue was up more than 41 percent from 2005 in Asia, while it climbed 3 percent in the U.S. in the same period, according to Bloomberg data.

Yu said she went to an export trade show in Hong Kong two years ago and met Chow Chi Chung, a salesman for Amsterdam-based ABN Amro Holding NV. He offered her a better return on her savings if she switched banks, she said. So she did.

Two-thirds of Yu’s money, about $100,000, came from a settlement with her employer after an elevator fell half a floor, injuring her pelvis, according to Yu, who still drags her right leg when she walks.

Didn’t Read Prospectus

A month after their meeting, Yu said Chow called her to say he had a new product that could return as much as 20 percent a year because it was linked to the stock performance of three large Chinese companies -- China Communications Construction Co.,China Merchants Bank Co. and Ping An Insurance Co.

Yu said she didn’t read the fine print, trusting Chow when he told her she couldn’t lose her principal. Had she looked at the prospectus and understood it she would have discovered that she had essentially bought three call options -- contracts that would capture gains if the shares of the three companies rose by a certain amount -- coupled with the equivalent of a Lehman corporate bond. If Lehman defaulted, her money would be gone.

Cash Bonus

ABN Amro, now part of Edinburgh-based Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, also recruited Yu to sell the same product to her family, giving her a cash bonus of about $155 for each person who signed up, she said.

Yuk Min Hui, a Hong Kong-based spokeswoman for RBS, declined to comment about Yu’s case. She said in an e-mail that if the bank determined that “sales processes and guidelines were not properly followed,” it would offer “appropriate remedies.” Only a small number of investors fall in this category, she said.

Chow couldn’t be located.

There are 873 issues of such Lehman equity-linked structured notes outstanding with a combined face value of about $8.7 billion, all now in default, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Bonds were denominated in pounds, Swiss francs and Hungarian forint, as well as Australian and Hong Kong dollars.

Banks also sold $1.8 billion of Lehman minibonds to an estimated 43,000 investors in Hong Kong, where the notes were first marketed in 2003, according to the Hong Kong Monetary Authority. The biggest seller was BOC Hong Kong (Holdings) Ltd., a unit of Beijing-based Bank of China Ltd.

Financial Dumplings

The minibonds were all issued by a Cayman Islands-based entity called Pacific International Finance Ltd., set up by Lehman with trustees from London-based HSBC Holdings Plc. The notes were financial dumplings -- derivatives contracts tied to the creditworthiness of major companies wrapped inside Lehman corporate bonds. Series 19 notes, for instance, were linked to securities dealers including Citigroup Inc. and Goldman Sachs. If any of those businesses or Lehman defaulted, the investor wouldn’t get paid.

In effect, investors in Series 19 notes bought the losing end of credit-default swaps, or insurance policies pegged to the survival of financial institutions. If any of those companies failed, the noteholders were the ones responsible for paying off the principal on the derivative.

Lehman took payments from investors in exchange for a guaranteed yield, then placed the cash in a Lehman-managed money market fund and issued commercial paper to borrow more money. Those funds were in turn used to invest in CDOs sold by Lehman off-balance-sheet entities in places such as Ireland and the Cayman Islands.

‘Blood and Sweat’

Sun Kwan, a 58-year-old retired parks worker, was among those who bought Lehman minibonds. He stood outside the I.M. Pei-designed Hong Kong headquarters of the Bank of China on June 15, along with Yu and 51 other protesters, banging a chipped red drum with a stick every two seconds. Raindrops beaded on the brim of his blue cap. A sign around his neck, hand-lettered in Chinese characters, read: “The Bank of China is a hooker. Give me back my money earned with blood and sweat.”

Sun, who has a high school education, invested about $285,000 in Lehman Minibond Series 12 notes, sold to him by BOC Hong Kong, which paid about 4 percent interest a year.

He said he thought he was putting his money into a certificate of deposit. Instead, as the prospectus explained, the notes were a bet against the default of the Chinese government and five companies, including Hutchison Whampoa Ltd., which operates ports and telecommunications services, Chinese state-owned oil producer CNOOC Ltd. and Lehman.

As an incentive, he was given $26 in supermarket coupons.

Rhinos, Whales

Sun also purchased $40,000 worth of Octave Series 10 notes, a similarly structured product created by Morgan Stanley, in which the investor would lose all of his money if Lehman or any of six other companies defaulted. He said he never heard of Lehman and thought the notes were backed by the People’s Republic of China because most of the businesses were state- owned.

Nick Footitt, a spokesman for Morgan Stanley in Hong Kong, declined to comment.

Each minibond series was custom-made, so their characteristics differed. Packagers skipped using some numbers, including 4, which is considered unlucky in Chinese culture and would make the bond difficult to market. Investors got prizes, including video cameras and flat-screen televisions, according to newspaper advertisements and fliers handed out at banks. The ads, in both Chinese and English, featured rhinoceroses, whales and other symbols of potency, luck or profit.

‘Rotten Deal’

“It’s all gone,” Sun said in an interview conducted through a Chinese translator at the demonstration. “I almost wanted to kill myself. I’ve been crying for months, even though I am a man.”

He said he hadn’t yet told his 25-year-old son, Sun Chi Yan, what had happened to his nest egg, most of which came from a settlement when the government bought his family’s land.

Sun and Yu were among investors who staged protests almost every business day for nine months, sparking a Hong Kong legislative investigation and calls for more protection for retail customers. The raucous demonstrations in the city’s financial district, including a tent encampment and bullhorns connected to an iPod that blared the looped chant “Rotten Deal -- Money Back,” became an embarrassment to the banks.

In a city of 7 million, where only 30 percent of workers had pensions before 2001, the Lehman protesters struck a chord, according to Audrey Eu, one of 60 members of Hong Kong’s Legislative Council.

Bank Offer

“A lot of them lost their life savings,” Eu said in an interview in June. “They’re all crying. They work as cleaners, and $50,000 is a lot of money to them.”

Angel Yip, a spokeswoman for BOC Hong Kong, said in an e- mail that “we understand and sympathize with customers” who lost money as a result of the Lehman collapse. She said advertisements and prospectuses distributed by the bank “contained a detailed description of the structure and risks” of the investments.

In July, 16 retail banks, including BOC Hong Kong, offered to repay minibond investors at least 60 cents on the dollar, a deal brokered by the city’s securities regulator that would amount to $813 million. About two-thirds of eligible noteholders accepted the offer, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority said in a statement on Sept. 4. Sun said he hadn’t yet made up his mind.

“The compensation offer is totally unfair and based on groundless calculations,” Sun said. “If we have to accept it eventually, it’ll be because we’ve exhausted all other means.”

‘Grotesquely Wrong’

While investors in Hong Kong have the right to sue banks, there are no class-action laws or contingency fees, making it difficult to find lawyers willing to take cases.

Patrick Daniels, a lawyer with Coughlin Stoia Geller Rudman & Robbins LLP in San Diego, has filed a class-action suit against Lehman in federal court in New York on behalf of minibond holders like Sun in Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore seeking $1.6 billion from Bank of New York Mellon Corp. The money, mostly shares in Lehman’s Institutional Money Market Fund, is being held by the bank as collateral to secure the minibonds, Daniels said. Other Lehman creditors are trying to get the same funds from the Bank of New York Mellon, which isn’t accused of wrongdoing. The case is pending.

“Something is grotesquely wrong here,” Daniels said in an interview in July. “These people were just flat-out lied to and stolen from.”

Neither the lawsuit nor the settlement applies to Yu or other holders of equity-linked notes from Houston to Singapore.

London Suicide

Hong Kong retirees weren’t the only victims. Even professional investors were stuck with Lehman losses.

The stocks and bonds of Lehman’s London brokerage customers, used as collateral to borrow more money, were frozen on Sept. 15. About 3,500 clients, including 700 hedge funds, couldn’t get access to an estimated $65 billion of assets. PricewaterhouseCoopers, Lehman’s U.K. bankruptcy administrator, is still sorting out who should get paid and how much. Some firms have closed, and others may have to wait as long as a decade to get their assets back, Tony Lomas, the PwC partner in charge of the U.K. administration, said in August.

It took only 10 days for the ice-nine to get to Kirk Stephenson, chief operating officer of Olivant Ltd., a London private-equity firm run by former UBS AG Chairman Luqman Arnold. On Sept. 25, Stephenson, 47, jumped in front of a train going 125 mph at a station in Taplow, 28 miles (45 kilometers) west of London.

The coroner’s office for the county of Buckinghamshire ruled the death a suicide. Stephenson, a native of New Zealand, was despondent about the financial crisis and talked about killing himself one week after Lehman’s demise, according to a statement from his wife read at the coroner’s inquest.

U.K. Lock-Up

Lehman Brothers International (Europe) was Olivant’s prime broker. It held the firm’s 2.78 percent stake in UBS, Switzerland’s largest bank by assets, according to a statement from Olivant on Oct. 1. The shares were worth 1.6 billion francs ($1.44 billion) at the time.

The hedge fund lock-up led the U.K. to reconsider its procedures when firms fail. While Lehman’s broker-dealer in the U.S. stayed out of bankruptcy long enough to process many of its trades, the business seized up in the U.K.

“In the U.S., everything was wrapped in cotton wool for four days,” said PwC’s Lomas. In the U.K., “everything failed come 7:56 a.m. that Monday morning.”

‘Black Hole’

The U.K. had an advantage in attracting hedge fund assets before the Lehman bankruptcy. While U.S. prime brokers face limits on how much they can loan hedge funds, those rules could be circumvented with overseas units like Lehman’s in London. Some U.S. clients didn’t know they were customers of Lehman Brothers International (Europe).

“If you didn’t pay attention to what you were signing, you would have missed it,” said Michael Romanek, principal at Rise Partners Ltd., which arranges financing for funds from London. “It was called enhanced prime brokerage, where they could be more accommodating with more leverage or loans. It just took signing some extra papers in New York. Most people didn’t realize it.”

Some fund managers with frozen assets say they’ve gone from extreme anger to resignation that they’ll have to wait a long time to see any return.

“I still don’t know if I’ll ever get any money back,” said Edward Chin, whose Hong Kong-based Pride Revelation Fund used Lehman as its sole prime broker. “We’re in a black hole.”

$30 Billion Gap

The ice-nine also halted construction projects from Wall Street to the Turks and Caicos Islands.

Lehman borrowed against property investments that couldn’t easily be sold, such as construction loans. So when the property market turned sour and creditors demanded more collateral for the loans or their money back, the investment bank was stuck.

The property portfolio doomed Lehman when a rescue still seemed possible. On Saturday, Sept. 13, 2008, Timothy Geithner, then president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and now U.S. Treasury secretary, asked a team of the world’s top bankers to evaluate Lehman’s real estate holdings as part of an effort to facilitate a sale of the investment bank to London-based Barclays Plc.

The team, including representatives from Goldman Sachs and Credit Suisse Group AG, determined that Lehman had overvalued its real estate investments by $20 billion to $30 billion, according to people who attended meetings at the New York Fed last September.

Watergate Hotel

When Barclays pulled out of an agreement to buy the firm, Lehman was forced to file for bankruptcy. Only then did Barclays buy Lehman’s U.S. securities business, including its headquarters in Manhattan’s Times Square.

The bankruptcy deprived the international real estate market of a major source of financing. The bank was known for doing deals nobody else would touch, according to a former Lehman executive.

The Watergate Hotel, made famous by the 1972 break-in that led to the resignation of President Richard Nixon, was sold at auction in August for $25 million after its owner, Washington- based Monument Realty LLC, defaulted on its mortgage. Monument was financed by Lehman.

A condo conversion at 25 Broad St. in Manhattan, two blocks from Goldman Sachs’s headquarters, was suspended by developers. It too was financed by Lehman.

SunCal, Depfa

Irvine, California-based SunCal Cos., a closely held developer, said it had $1.6 billion in financing from Lehman. Since the bank’s failure, 19 projects, all in California, have filed for bankruptcy, SunCal said. Work has stopped on all of them, including the 248-acre Marblehead Coastal community in San Clemente, which was supposed to feature 69 single-family homes, 244 other residences, a movie theater, parks and hiking trails.

Munich-based Hypo Real Estate Holding AG received 102 billion euros ($143 billion) in debt guarantees and credit lines from the German government after its Depfa unit was stuck without short-term funding following Lehman’s bankruptcy. Like Lehman, Hypo funded long-term real estate assets with short-term loans such as commercial paper.

German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck defended the bailout of the lender because the global financial system was just “millimeters from the abyss.”

Molasses Reef

On West Caicos, an otherwise uninhabited island 250 miles northeast of Cuba, work stopped on the Molasses Reef Ritz- Carlton Hotel and Residences, slated to include a cluster of $6.5 million cottages. About 400 Chinese employees of Tel Aviv- based construction firm Ashtrom Properties Ltd. didn’t get paid when Lehman funding dried up, according to Jonathan Siegel, New York-based managing director of Logwood Hotel Development Co.

About 60 electrical workers rebelled, taking a dozen managers hostage and refusing to let them leave the island.

“We had 400 to 500 unhappy men, and we were concerned violence would erupt,” Siegel said. “The Turks and Caicos government was very unhappy with the situation. There was a limited supply of food and water.”

Ashtrom ended the standoff after a week by paying what it considered “a ransom,” Siegel said. The project, about 70 percent completed, is still on hold, said Verona Carter, Ritz- Carlton Hotel Co.’s director of public relations for the Caribbean area.

Financial Leadership

The vulnerability of the global financial system revealed by Lehman’s bankruptcy -- from ordinary investors like Sun and Yu to London hedge funds and German lenders -- makes it all the harder to regulate.

“The difficulty you have in getting control is that you need a global alliance,” said former World Bank President James D. Wolfensohn in an e-mail. “You need all the finance ministers to come together, because if a transaction can’t be done here, it can be done in Lichtenstein or France or the Far East.”

Lehman’s bankruptcy also poses a challenge to America’s financial leadership.

Wall Street profited by arranging financing that allowed other countries to tap global capital markets to build offices, factories, resorts and housing. What’s broken now is the trust the rest of the world had in U.S. banks, said Phillip Yin, a native of Seattle who is managing director of Asia Investors Partners Ltd., a Hong Kong-based research firm.

“All that has happened since -- the job losses, the slump, everything -- is tied to one thing and one event,” Yin said. “And that’s Lehman.”

(Lehman’s Lessons: Next, Too Big to Fail)

To contact the reporters on this story: Mark Pittman in New York at mpittman@bloomberg.net; Bob Ivry in New York at bivry@bloomberg.net.





Read more...