Economic Calendar

Wednesday, September 23, 2009

Soybean Output to Rise as India Drought Spares Crop (Update1)

By Thomas Kutty Abraham

Sept. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Soybean production in India, Asia’s biggest exporter of soybean meal, may climb 12 percent next year after farmers planted more acres with the oilseed after the main growing areas escaped a drought, a trader said.

Output may be as much as 10 million tons in the harvesting season starting Oct. 1, compared with 8.9 million tons this year, said Atul Chaturvedi, president at Adani Enterprises Ltd., the nation’s biggest trader of farm goods.

A bigger soybean crop in India may cut sales of animal feed by processors including U.S.-based Bunge Ltd. and Latin American suppliers to Japan and South Korea, the biggest buyers. Soybean meal prices have declined 16 percent in the past year.

“Prices could come under pressure as supplies increase not just from India, but also from the U.S.,” said Chaturvedi in a telephone interview from Ahmedabad.

Soybean production in the U.S., the world’s largest grower and exporter, will climb to a record 3.245 billion bushels this year, up 9.7 percent from last year, the USDA estimated on Sept. 11. U.S. inventories on Aug. 31 totaled 110 million bushels, the smallest pre-harvest total since 1977, government data shows.

Soybean meal for delivery in December lost as much as 0.8 percent to $276.50 a short ton in after-hours trading in Chicago. That compares with about $360-$365 a long ton for the commodity supplied to Indian ports on the western coast, Chaturvedi said.

“Indian meal is enjoying a premium over the U.S. supplies and one needs to watch how long that will sustain,” he said.

Crop Area

The area sown with soybeans rose to 9.67 million hectares (24 million acres) as of Aug. 31, compared with 9.62 million hectares a year earlier, the Soybean Processors Association of India said Sept. 4. The central Indian state of Madhya Pradesh, the biggest grower, boosted the area under the crop by 3 percent to 5.29 million hectares, the group said.

Rains over central states, including Madhya Pradesh, have been near normal in the June-September monsoon season, bucking dry weather conditions that have caused a drought in almost half the country, according to the weather bureau.

“The worst is over for soybean crop as far as weather is concerned,” Chaturvedi said. “Harvesting has begun in a small way and the yield looks alright.”

Soybean meal, India’s largest meal export, is added to poultry feed as a form of protein to aid birds’ growth. The country usually exports more than 70 percent of its output.

To contact the reporter on this story: Thomas Kutty Abraham in Mumbai at tabraham4@bloomberg.net





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Asian Consumer Stocks Advance; China Shipping Companies Decline

By Shani Raja

Sept. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Asian consumer-related shares rose on expectations the Group of 20 Nations will continue policies to support growth. Chinese shipping lines fell on lower commodity cargo rates.

Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd. soared 19 percent in Hong Kong after selling convertible bonds. Billabong International Ltd., Australia’s biggest surfwear maker, rose 3.1 percent. Woodside Petroleum Ltd., Australia’s second-biggest oil and gas producer, jumped 5.1 percent, after crude oil advanced for the first time in four days yesterday. China Cosco Holdings Co., the world’s largest operator of dry-bulk ships, lost 3 percent.

“G-20 leaders are expected to continue to support fiscal policy stimulus and the global banking system, with the removal of stimulus to take place in a globally coordinated manner,” said Stephen Halmarick, Sydney-based head of investment markets research at Colonial First State, which holds about $115 billion. “There are still concerns about the sustainability of the recovery beyond the stimulus.”

The MSCI Asia Pacific excluding Japan Index rose 0.3 percent to 394.49 as of 7:20 p.m. in Tokyo, after touching its highest point in a year. About three stocks on the index fell for every two that gained. The gauge that includes Japan has rallied 69 percent from a five-year low on March 9. Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index advanced 1.5 percent at the close, snapping three straight days of losses. Japanese markets were closed for a holiday.

Broker Upgrades

New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index added 0.2 percent, as a government report today showed the nation emerged from recession. The unexpected growth in gross domestic product drove the U.S. dollar to a 13-month low against New Zealand’s currency.

South Korea’s Kospi Index lost 0.4 percent to 1,711.47 at the close. Hynix Semiconductor Inc. slumped 5.4 percent, leading a gauge of technology stocks on the ex-Japan Asian index lower, after Hyosung Corp. submitted a bid to gain control of the world’s second-biggest computer-memory chipmaker. Korea Express Co., the nation’s largest logistics company, slumped 5 percent to 71,000 won after prosecutors raided its offices. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index dropped 0.5 percent at the close.

Futures on the U.S. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained 0.1 percent. The gauge climbed 0.7 percent to 1,071.66 yesterday following a spate of brokerage upgrades. JPMorgan Chase & Co. had its earnings estimate raised at Bank of America Corp., while Citigroup Inc. advised buying Macy’s Inc. shares.

Asia Leading Recovery

“A slew of broker and earnings upgrades provided the impetus and now there’s plenty of cash to follow the advice,” said Cameron Peacock, a Melbourne-based analyst at IG Markets. “The demand from cash on the sidelines will make dips shallow and short lived.”

International Monetary Fund Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn called on leaders from the G-20 nations to maintain policies to pull the world economy out of recession and said China will play a larger role in shaping a sustainable recovery. The Washington-based IMF is advising officials around the world not to withdraw economic stimulus programs too soon as they chart a path to lasting growth.

The Federal Reserve has started talks with bond dealers about withdrawing the unprecedented amount of cash injected into the financial system in the last two years, according to people with knowledge of the discussions.

Chinese Expansion

The Group of 20 country leaders will meet in Pittsburgh Sept. 24-25 to work on an accord to prevent a repeat of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression and ensure a sustained recovery.

The Asian Development Bank yesterday raised its economic forecast for the region on growing expansion in China, India and Indonesia. The ADB predicted Asia, excluding Japan, will grow 3.9 percent in 2009.

“The ADB forecasts support the view that Asia, led by China, will be the first region of the world out of recession,” said Halmarick.

Geely Automobile surged 19 percent to HK$2.13. The company plans to raise HK$2.59 billion selling convertible bonds and warrants to a fund managed by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Kia Motors Corp., South Korea’s second-biggest automaker, rallied 2.5 percent to 18,150 won.

Billabong, Australia’s biggest surfwear maker, rose 3.1 percent to A$11.12. Fairfax Media Ltd., Australia’s second- largest newspaper publisher, surged 4.6 percent to A$1.695. Chairman Ron Walker will meet investors over whether he should stand for re-election after two directors called for his departure.

Commodity Producers Rise

Woodside Petroleum rose 5.1 percent to A$52.11. Santos Ltd., Australia’s third-biggest oil and gas producer, added 0.5 percent to A$15.15. In New York, crude oil for October delivery rose 2.6 percent to $71.55 yesterday. It was $71.40 a barrel in after-hours trading. SK Energy Co., South Korea’s largest oil refiner, climbed 4.5 percent to 127,500 won.

Rio Tinto Group, the world’s third-largest mining company, gained 2.3 percent to A$61.74. BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s biggest mining company, added 0.9 percent to A$38.35. Copper futures for December delivery gained 2.1 percent to $2.8645 a pound yesterday as the dollar weakened, boosting demand for commodities as a hedge against inflation. A measure of metals traded in London rose 1.3 percent yesterday.

China Cosco, the world’s biggest operator of dry bulk ships, fell 3 percent to 12.62 yuan in Shanghai. China Shipping Container Lines Co., the nation’s second-biggest container line, slumped 1.6 percent to 3.08 yuan.

To contact the reporter on this story: Shani Raja in Sydney at sraja4@bloomberg.net.





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China’s Stocks Drop to Three-Week Low; Tangshan Steel Slides

By Bloomberg News

Sept. 23 (Bloomberg) -- China’s stocks dropped for a second day, dragging the Shanghai Composite Index to a three-week low, as falling steel prices and transport rates spurred concern the country’s economic recovery is faltering.

Tangshan Iron & Steel Co. retreated 3.9 percent after its parent cut prices of reinforcing bars used in buildings for a second month. China Cosco Holdings Co. fell 3 percent as a measure of shipping costs for commodities declined. PetroChina Co., the nation’s biggest oil company, lost 1.7 percent after crude slipped.

“Judging from falling product prices, the recovery doesn’t seem to be very solid and the outlook is still clouded by uncertainty,” said Yan Ji, who helps oversee about $1.2 billion at HSBC Jintrust Fund Management Co. in Shanghai.

The benchmark index fell 54.83, or 1.9 percent, to 2,842.72 at the 3 p.m. close, adding to yesterday’s 2.3 percent drop and its lowest close since Sept. 2. The CSI 300 Index, measuring exchanges in Shanghai and Shenzhen, slid 2.3 percent to 3,060.07.

The Shanghai gauge has lost 18 percent since this year’s peak on Aug. 4 on concern a plunge in new lending will derail the economic rebound and a flood of share sales will draw funds away from existing equities.

The decline ended a 91 percent rally in 2009 that was driven by optimism the government’s $586 billion stimulus package and more than 1 trillion of new loans would guarantee the economy reached the government’s 8 percent annual growth target. Stocks on the index trade at 31.44 times reported earnings, compared with last year’s low of 12.87 times, Bloomberg data shows.

Steel Prices

Tangshan Steel fell 3.9 percent to 6.63 yuan. Parent Hebei Iron & Steel Group, China’s second-biggest producer, cut October prices for reinforcing bars by 10 percent, according to the Umetal Research Institute. Hebei couldn’t be reached for comment.

Cash rebar prices in China have dropped 23 percent since reaching a more than 10-month high on Aug. 6 after gains this year led buyers to offload high inventories.

Angang Steel Co., China’s second-largest steelmaker by market value, retreated 1.6 percent to 12.09 yuan, capping a three-day, 11 percent slump. Laiwu Steel Corp., owned by China’s sixth-biggest steelmaker, declined 4.6 percent to 10.21 yuan.

The Baltic Dry Index, which tracks transport costs on international trade routes, fell yesterday to its lowest level in more than four months after data showed Chinese demand for coal and iron ore to make steel is tumbling.

Shipping Companies

China Cosco retreated 3 percent to 12.62 yuan. China Shipping Development Co., a unit of China’s second-biggest sea- cargo group, fell 2.6 percent to 12.10 yuan. Cosco Shipping Co., a unit of the largest, slid 4.2 percent to 9.74 yuan.

The country’s iron-ore imports declined 14 percent in August from July and coal imports slid 15 percent, a second consecutive monthly decline, according to customs data yesterday.

China needs to maintain a proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy to sustain a rebound by the nation’s industries, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said yesterday. Industry is at a critical phase, companies lack incentives to invest and weak demand for exports won’t improve quickly, it said.

PetroChina dropped 1.7 percent to 12.77 yuan, extending a three-day, 5.6 percent decline. China Shenhua Energy Co., the nation’s largest coal producer, lost 3.9 percent to 30.70 yuan.

Crude oil fell as much as 0.9 percent in after-hours trading in New York.

Stock Accounts

An 11 percent rebound on the Shanghai Composite this month through Sept. 18 lured investors to open more accounts to trade stocks for the first time in seven weeks. Individual investors opened 345,844 accounts last week, data from the nation’s clearing house showed today.

The figure is less than half the 700,000 registered in the last week of July, when investors were rushing to buy equities following the end of a nine-month ban on initial public offerings and a rebound in economic growth.

The securities regulator yesterday gave three companies approval to sell shares on a new Nasdaq-like board for start-ups in Shenzhen. The board will probably raise about 20 billion yuan this year, with trading beginning by the end of October, the Hong Kong Economic Journal reported this week, citing Shenyin & Wanguo Securities.

Chongqing Brewery Co. slumped 6 percent to 20.42 yuan, the most in more than a month, after announcing yesterday evening that 192 million of its shares will become tradable on Sept. 28.

--Zhang Shidong. Editors: Richard Frost, Reinie Booysen

To contact Bloomberg News staff for this story: Zhang Shidong in Shanghai at +86-21-6104-7014 or szhang5@bloomberg.net





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FTSE Futures May Gain After Consolidation: Technical Analysis

By Francesca Cinelli

Sept. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Futures on the FTSE 100 Index may continue their advance after consolidating near the 5,100 level, according to Commerzbank AG technical analysts who look at price charts to forecast movements.

“The mini-consolidation of the last days around 5,100 has a trend-confirming character to the upside,” a team of analysts including Frankfurt-based Achim Matzke wrote in a report dated yesterday. Futures on the benchmark gauge for U.K. stocks expiring in December have entered an “upside trend channel” with a lower trend line about 4,970, reflecting “the noticeable devaluation of the British pound.”

Even so, Matzke noted that the relative strength index for the futures is in a “short-term overbought technical situation” that “indicates another consolidation day.”

The RSI tracks momentum by comparing closing prices with daily trading ranges over preceding days. When the gauge climbs above 70, technical analysts say the measure is more likely to retreat. The 14-day RSI on FTSE 100 futures expiring in December closed at 74 yesterday.

The FTSE 100 has surged 46 percent since March 3 after earnings from HSBC Holdings Plc to GlaxoSmithKline Plc topped estimates and the Group of 20 nations committed about $12 trillion to revive growth.

To contact the reporters on this story: Francesca Cinelli in Milan at fcinelli@bloomberg.net;





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Swiss Stocks Advance; Credit Suisse, Swiss Re, UBS Lead Gains

By Daniela Silberstein

Sept. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Stocks in Switzerland rose for a second day, led by financial shares, as speculation mounted that the global recession is nearing an end.

Credit Suisse Group AG advanced 2.3 percent after Finanz und Wirtschaft reported the company’s private banking unit is interested in acquisitions. Swiss Reinsurance Co. and UBS AG also advanced.

The SMI, a gauge of the country’s biggest and most actively traded companies, increased 19.64, or 0.3 percent, to 6,360.36 at 11:26 a.m. in Zurich. The broader Swiss Performance Index gained 0.3 percent to 5,495.06.

Federal Reserve officials may signal today that the U.S. economy has started to recover while maintaining their pledge to keep the benchmark interest rate near a record low for an “extended period.” Leaders from the Group of 20 nations will meet in Pittsburgh for two days to work on an accord to prevent a repeat of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression and ensure a sustained recovery.

Credit Suisse rose 2.3 percent to 58.9 Swiss francs. The second-largest Swiss bank’s private banking unit is interested in acquisitions in Europe, Latin America and “particularly” Asia, Walter Berchtold, head of the division, told Finanz und Wirtschaft.

Swiss Re, the world’s second-biggest reinsurer, gained 1.6 percent to 47.44 francs. UBS AG, the biggest Swiss bank by assets, added 1.1 percent to 19.46 francs.

To contact the reporter on this story: Daniela Silberstein in Zurich at dsilberstei2@bloomberg.net.





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French Stocks: Alcatel-Lucent, Eiffage, JCDecaux, Natixis

By Maud van Gaal

Sept. 23 (Bloomberg) -- France’s CAC 40 Index rose 4.03, or 0.1 percent, to 3,827.55 at noon in Paris, a second day of gains. The SBF 120 Index also added 0.1 percent.

The following stocks rose or fell in the French market. Symbols are in parentheses after company names.

Alcatel-Lucent SA (ALU FP) rose 12 cents, or 4.2 percent, to 3.13 euros, which would be the highest closing level in a year. The world’s largest supplier of fixed-line phone networks indicated to analysts that it may report better-than-expected operating profit for the third quarter, Wansquare reported on its Internet site.

Eiffage SA (FGR FP) dropped 73 cents, or 1.6 percent, to 45.25 euros, a fourth decline in five days. France’s third- biggest construction company was cut to “underperform” from “in-line” at Cazenove.

Ipsen SA (IPN FP) fell 84 cents, or 2.2 percent, to 38.10 euros, breaking a nine-day winning streak. Societe Generale cut its recommendation on shares of the French family-controlled drugmaker to “hold” from “buy.”

JCDecaux SA (DEC FP) slipped 23 cents, or 1.5 percent, to 15.65 euros, reversing yesterday’s 1.3 percent increase. The world’s second-largest outdoor-advertising company had its long- and short-term corporate credit ratings cut one level by Standard & Poor’s, which cited a lack of improvement in trading conditions.

Natixis SA (KN FP) rose 7 cents, or 2 percent, to 4.01 euros, on course for a close at the highest level in more than a year. The French investment bank will post a profit for the third quarter, La Tribune reported, citing comments made by Chief Executive Officer Laurent Mignon to analysts.

Poweo SA (ALPWO FP) dropped 65 cents, or 2.9 percent, to 22 euros, paring three days of advances. The French power utility said its second-half operating loss will exceed the 9.3 million euros recorded for the first half.

Natixis Securities cut its recommendation on the shares to “reduce” from “add.”

Trigano SA (TRI FP) rose 39 cents, or 2.9 percent, to 14.14 euros, rising for a ninth straight day. The French maker of motor caravans and mobile homes was raised to “neutral” from “underperform” at Exane BNP Paribas.

To contact the reporter on this story: Maud van Gaal in Amsterdam at mvangaal@bloomberg.net





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U.K. Stocks Extend Rally; Prudential, Aviva, Burberry Climb

By Sarah Jones

Sept. 23 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. stocks advanced for a second day, as Cazenove recommended shares of life insurers and Burberry Group Plc’s chief executive officer said the retailer’s British business is “on fire.”

Prudential Plc, the U.K.’s biggest insurer by market value, and Aviva Plc led a measure of insurance stocks to the highest in almost a year as Cazenove upgraded the shares. Burberry, the U.K.’s largest luxury-goods maker, advanced 2.6 percent.

The benchmark FTSE 100 gained 0.4 percent to 5,160.34 at 11:02 a.m. in London, climbing for the 12th time in 14 days. The FTSE All-Share Index rose 0.3 percent and Ireland’s ISEQ Index fell 0.1 percent.

“Markets continue to rally,” said London-based Joshua Raymond, a strategist at City Index. “Whilst momentum is firmly towards the upside, the more we go higher the more susceptible we are to sharp and severe bouts of profit taking.”

The FTSE 100 has rebounded 47 percent since March 3 as companies reported earnings that beat estimates and economic releases added to evidence that the worst of a global recession may be over.

The Confederation of British Industry today forecast U.K. gross domestic product will rise 0.3 percent in the third quarter, reversing a June prediction for a drop of the same size. The business lobby also expects 0.4 percent growth in the last three months of the year.

Shares of Prudential advanced 1.8 percent to 574.5 pence, while Aviva, the U.K.’s second-biggest insurer, gained 1.4 percent to 418.7 pence. Smaller rival St James’s Place Plc added 0.7 percent to 236.4 pence.

Cazenove

Cazenove raised its recommendation for the three insurers to “outperform” from “in-line,” citing “potential for significant further upside” in the life insurance sector, driven by improving fundamentals and a recovery in earnings.

Analyst James Pearce also upgraded shares of Old Mutual Plc to “in-line” from “underperform.”

Burberry increased 2.7 percent to 489.6 pence after CEO Angela Ahrendts said the clothing maker’s U.K. business has been “on fire” as demand for luxury goods improves. Ahrendts spoke in an interview late yesterday at London Fashion Week.

The following stocks also gained or fell in the U.K. market. Stock symbols are in parentheses.

Greene King Plc (GNK LN) dropped 19.5 pence, or 4.4 percent, to 428.4 after UBS AG downgraded the shares to “sell” from “buy,” saying an “optimistic” outlook on the U.K. economy is already “factored into current share prices.”

Analysts also recommended selling shares of Marston’s Plc (MARS LN), Mitchells & Butlers Plc (MAB LN) and Enterprise Inns Plc (ETI LN).

Marston’s was previously rated “buy” and Enterprise Inns and Mitchells & Butlers were cut from “neutral.”

Liberty International Plc (LII LN) dropped 43 pence, or 7.6 percent, to 521 after the U.K.’s largest shopping-center owner announced plans to raise 300 million pounds ($493 million) by selling shares for the second time in five months.

The company is raising capital to resume investments in buildings for the first time in a year as the commercial- property market recovers.

SABMiller Plc (SAB LN) fell 17 pence, or 1.1 percent, to 1,497 as shareholder Kulczyk Holding SA is selling as many as 6 million shares in the brewer through a Goldman Sachs Group Inc.- run placing, according to a term sheet for the sale.

To contact the reporters on this story: Sarah Jones in London at sjones35@bloomberg.net.





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European, Asian Stocks Advance for Second Day; Alcatel Gains

By Adria Cimino

Sept. 23 (Bloomberg) -- European and Asian stocks rose for a second day amid speculation the Group of 20 nations will maintain measures to support the economy even as signs grow that a recovery is accelerating.

Alcatel-Lucent SA jumped 3.4 percent after a report that the world’s biggest supplier of fixed-line phone networks may post higher-than-estimated profit. Royal BAM Groep NV, the biggest Dutch builder, gained 4.6 percent after Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc more than doubled its share-price estimate. Mitchells & Butlers Plc led U.K. pub owners lower after UBS AG recommended selling the shares.

Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index added 0.7 percent to 245.82 at 12:46 p.m. in London. The regional gauge has soared 56 percent since March 9 as earnings at companies from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to GlaxoSmithKline Plc surpassed projections and the German and French economies exited recessions.

“We’re looking at a recovery,” Mike Lenhoff, who helps oversee about $26 billion as chief strategist at Brewin Dolphin Securities Ltd. in London, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “Markets are indicating a degree of confidence in prospects of growth that lie ahead. This is the quarter that we’re getting some indication of GDP recovering.”

The MSCI Asia Pacific excluding Japan Index rose 0.3 percent as New Zealand unexpectedly emerged from recession. The country’s economy grew for the first time in six quarters, with gross domestic product increasing 0.1 percent in the three months to June 30, a government report today showed.

U.K. Economy

The U.K.’s recession will end this quarter after five periods of contraction, the Confederation of British Industry said today. The business lobby raised its third-quarter GDP forecast to a 0.3 percent gain from a 0.3 percent drop.

Europe’s manufacturing and service industries expanded for a second month in September, suggesting the euro-region economy is gathering strength. A composite index of both industries in the 16-nation economy rose to 50.8 from 50.4 in August, according to Markit Economics.

Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures added 0.3 percent, suggesting the benchmark gauge for U.S. equities will extend an 11-month high.

The G-20 leaders will meet in Pittsburgh for two days starting tomorrow to work on an accord to prevent a repeat of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression and ensure a sustained recovery. International Monetary Fund Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn in an interview called on leaders from the G-20 to maintain efforts to pull the world economy out of its first recession since World War II, warning the crisis isn’t over.

$12 Trillion

Equities have surged since March as the G-20 committed about $12 trillion to revive growth and the Federal Reserve kept overnight borrowing costs near zero to unlock credit markets. The advance has pushed the valuation of Europe’s Stoxx 600 to 51 times reported profit, the most expensive level since 2003, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Fed officials may signal today that the U.S. economy has started to recover while maintaining their pledge to keep the benchmark interest rate near a record low for an “extended period.” Officials will probably debate their purchases of $1.45 trillion in housing debt, including whether to extend the emergency program into 2010, analysts said.

The Federal Open Market Committee is scheduled to issue its statement at around 2:15 p.m. Washington time after the end of its two-day meeting.

‘Easily Go Higher’

Inflation caused by the Fed’s efforts to prop up the U.S. economy will cause stocks to outperform cash and bond investments, Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report, said yesterday in an interview with Bloomberg Television.

“Stocks can easily go higher. If you print the money, they can go anywhere,” Faber said, adding that money pumped into the economy by central bankers will push the S&P 500 as high as 1,250 in a year.

All nine members of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee voted to maintain a 175 billion-pound ($286 billion) program of asset purchases this month, minutes of the Sept. 10 decision released by the central bank today in London showed. The BOE also unanimously opted to keep its key interest rate at 0.5 percent.

Alcatel-Lucent climbed 3.4 percent to 3.11 euros. The company indicated to analysts that it may report higher-than- estimated operating profit for the third quarter, according to Wansquare.

BAM Groep jumped 4.6 percent to 8.26 euros after RBS raised the share-price estimate to 11 euros from 5.5 euros.

Pub Operators

U.K. pub operators fell after UBS advised investors to sell the shares. Mitchells & Butlers, Greene King Plc, Marston’s Plc, and Enterprise Inns Plc were downgraded to “sell” at UBS, which said an “optimistic” outlook on the U.K. economy is already “factored into current share prices.”

Mitchells & Butlers, the owner of about 2,000 U.K. pubs, slid 2.8 percent to 290.4 pence. Greene King lost 1.4 percent to 441.8 pence. Enterprise Inns tumbled 6.1 percent to 134.9 pence and Marston’s slipped 1.4 percent to 105 pence.

JCDecaux SA dropped 1.2 percent to 15.69 euros. The world’s second-largest outdoor advertising company had its long- and short-term corporate credit ratings cut one level by S&P, which cited a lack of improvement in trading conditions.

Liberty International Plc, Britain’s largest shopping- center owner, and Yell Group Plc, the publisher of the U.K.’s Yellow Pages phone directory, retreated after announced share offerings.

Share Sales

Liberty slumped 7.9 percent to 519.5 pence. The company said it aims to raise more than 300 million pounds by selling stock for the second time in five months. Yell slid 13 percent to 65 pence after saying it plans to raise at least 500 million pounds to help repay debt.

U.K. homebuilders Barratt Developments Plc and Redrow Plc announced plans to raise a combined 843.5 million pounds by selling shares to pay down debt and buy cheap land. Barratt slipped 0.5 percent to 267.2 pence and Redrow fell 0.5 percent to 232.3 pence.

Strategists at Wall Street’s biggest securities firms can’t keep up with the S&P 500 after the steepest surge since the 1930s. The gauge climbed 0.7 percent yesterday to 1,071.66, leaving it above all but one of the 10 projections by forecasters in a Bloomberg survey this month, the first time that’s happened in data going back to 1999. The average forecast for the S&P 500 from the strategists is 1,022, about 5 percent below the index’s current level.

To contact the reporter on this story: Adria Cimino in Paris at acimino1@bloomberg.net.





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Inflation to Cause Stocks to Outperform Cash, Bonds, Faber Says

By Sapna Maheshwari

Sept. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Inflation caused by the Federal Reserve’s efforts to prop up the U.S. economy will cause stocks to outperform cash and bond investments, Marc Faber said.

Money pumped into the economy by central bankers will push the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index as high as 1,250 in a year, Faber, the publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report, said yesterday in an interview with Bloomberg Television. The U.S. government and the Fed have spent, lent or committed more than $12 trillion to revive the economy and credit markets, a program he predicted in a February interview would have “dire consequences” in the long term.

“Where there is inflation in the system as defined by money supply growth and credit growth, you have currency weakness,” Faber said yesterday. “Stocks can easily go higher. If you print the money, they can go anywhere.”

Faber recommended buying U.S. stocks in October, before the S&P 500 plunged 31 percent through March and then staged the steepest rally in more than 70 years. The index is up 8.8 percent since his October comments. It gained 0.7 percent yesterday to 1,071.66, extending its advance since March 9 to 58 percent.

Consumer prices rose 0.4 percent in August, following no change in July, underscoring the Fed’s view that inflation will be contained as it keeps the key interest rate between a record low of zero and 0.25 percentage point. The Federal Open Market Committee will keep its rate target unchanged at its meeting that concludes today, according to a Bloomberg survey of 98 economists.

‘Like Never Before’

The government “will print like never before,” which will reduce foreign investments in the U.S. and weaken the dollar further, Faber said. The Dollar Index, which tracks the U.S. currency against those of six major trading partners, has fallen 6.5 percent this year. It appreciated 6 percent in 2008.

Faber recommends purchasing stocks in drug companies such as Johnson & Johnson, saying it will gain from an aging population, and in oil companies, which he called inexpensive. An index of oil and gas stocks on the S&P 500 has fallen 12 percent this year.

“If you have a problem that arose as a result of excessive credit growth and debt levels in the system, you can’t solve that by piling up even more debt,” he said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Sapna Maheshwari in New York at smaheshwar11@bloomberg.net.





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Calpine, Goodrich Petroleum Sell Shares as U.S. Equities Surge

By Elizabeth Hester and Michael J. Moore

Sept. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Calpine Corp. and Goodrich Petroleum Corp. are among companies that announced the sale of as much as $1.83 billion in stock and convertible shares, taking advantage of nearly one-year highs in equities.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has climbed 58 percent since it closed at a 12-year low on March 9. So far this year, 483 firms have raised $150.3 billion selling stock and convertible notes, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

“The stock market has moved up significantly after a period where the window to raise capital for publicly traded companies has been slammed shut and nailed into the windowsill,” said James Ellman, president of San Francisco- based money manager Seacliff Capital LLC. “The window is open just a little bit right now, and there is a rush coming through that crack.”

Companies are taking advantage of rising stock markets to sell shares to the public after investors pulled back from all but the safest assets amid a global credit contraction. In the first quarter, only $13.8 billion was raised in stock and convertible sales, Bloomberg data show.

The four companies said as many as 99.5 million shares would be sold. Based on yesterday’s closing stock prices, that would be $912.3 million in stock. The firms also announced as much as $920 million in convertible bond sales.

Goodrich Petroleum, the oil and gas explorer with properties mostly in Louisiana and Texas, plans to sell $150 million in convertible senior notes, according to a company statement yesterday. JPMorgan Chase & Co. is leading the sale and has the option to sell $22.5 million in additional notes.

Calpine’s Sale

Calpine, the biggest U.S. producer of natural gas-fueled power, is selling 20 million shares on behalf of a Harbinger Capital Partners fund, the Houston-based company said yesterday. Calpine won’t receive any proceeds from the sale, which is being managed by Morgan Stanley.

Harbinger may sell an additional 3 million shares if demand warrants. Calpine closed at $12.35 yesterday on the New York Stock exchange, valuing the shares at $284 million.

Incyte Corp., the Wilmington, Delaware-based developer of medicines for diseases of the immune system, announced plans to sell as much as $287.5 million of convertible notes and 18 million shares.

Incyte shares rose 16 cents to $8.13 yesterday in Nasdaq trading. Selling the new shares, including an additional 2.7 million that underwriters have an option to buy, at that price would raise as much as $168.3 million. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is managing the sale with Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan.

American Airlines

AMR Corp., the parent company of American Airlines, sold 48.5 million shares and $400 million of convertible notes due in 2014, using the proceeds for general corporate purposes. Citigroup Inc., Morgan Stanley and UBS AG managed the sale, Fort Worth, Texas-based AMR said in a statement. Underwriters can buy an extra 7.3 million shares and $60 million in notes.

AMR has more than tripled since it touched this year’s low of $2.40 on March 6. The shares fell 59 cents to $8.44 yesterday in New York trading.

“If the window remains open, this trickle will increase significantly,” Ellman said. “I wouldn’t say it will become a flood, but there will be a significant amount of capital raising as long as the market stays at approximately this level and as long as investors are willing to contemplate committing capital to new deals.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Elizabeth Hester in New York at ehester@bloomberg.net; Michael J. Moore in New York at mmoore55@bloomberg.net.





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AGF, Northgate Minerals, Yellow Pages: Canadian Stock Preview

By Matt Walcoff

Sept. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Shares of the following companies may have unusual moves in Canadian trading tomorrow. Stock symbols are in parentheses.

The Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index rose 161.12 points, or 1.4 percent, to 11,585.73.

AGF Management Ltd. (AGF/B CN): The mutual-fund distributor reports third-quarter earnings before the market opens. The eight analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, on average, expect the company to report profit fell to 23.9 cents a share, excluding certain items, from 46 cents a share in the third quarter of last year.

Northgate Minerals Corp. (NGX CN): The gold and copper producer that mines in Canada and Australia said it will issue at least 34.3 million shares at C$2.92 a share, in part to finance its Young-Davidson gold-mining project in northern Ontario. Company shares rose 1.3 percent to C$3.08 before the announcement. Northgate had 256 million shares outstanding as of Aug. 31.


Yellow Pages Income Fund (YLO-U CN): Marc Tellier, chief executive of the directory publisher, speaks to the CIBC Eastern Institutional Investor Conference in Montreal. Yellow Pages shares have surged 18 percent during a seven-day streak of gains.

To contact the reporter on this story: Matt Walcoff in Toronto at mwalcoff1@bloomberg.net.




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Cemex, Gerdau, Suzano, Vale, Walmex: Latin Equity Preview

By Emily Schmall

Sept. 23 (Bloomberg) -- The following companies may have unusual price changes today in Latin American trading. Stock symbols are in parentheses and share prices reflect the previous close.

The MSCI Latin America Index rose 1 percent to 3,643.10. In Brazil, preferred shares usually are the most-traded class of stock.

Argentina

Transportadora de Gas del Norte SA (TGNO4 AR): The Argentine gas pipeline operator reached restructuring agreements with five institutional bondholders, representing 45 percent of bonds that TGN is attempting to swap, it wrote in a filing posted yesterday on the Buenos Aires stock exchange’s Web site. TGN rose 3.2 percent to 68 centavos.


Brazil

Gerdau SA (GGBR4 BS): Latin America’s largest steelmaker increased output of the metal to 75 percent of its global capacity to meet demand, up from 60 percent to 70 percent in July, Chief Executive Officer Andre Gerdau Johannpeter said. The company keep steel prices unchanged this year, O Estado de S. Paulo reported, citing the CEO. Gerdau rose 0.8 percent to 24.70 reais.

Suzano Papel e Celulose SA (SUZB5 BS): Latin America’s second-biggest pulp maker plans to raise pulp price amid growing demand from China, said Chief Executive Officer Antonio Maciel Neto. The price increase may take effect on Oct. 1, Maciel Neto said. Suzano rose 0.7 percent to 18.60 reais.

Vale SA (VALE5 BS): Brazil’s government wants Vale, the world’s biggest iron-ore producer, to become a major steelmaker to compete with ArcelorMittal, the world’s largest producer of the metal, Mining and Energy Minister Edison Lobao said yesterday. Separately, Vale, also the world’s second-biggest nickel producer, said it is sending ore from a nickel mine in Sudbury, Canada, to a mill as it prepares to partially restart output amid a strike. Vale gained 2.6 percent to 37.02 reais.

Colombia

Cia. Colombiana de Inversiones SA (COLINV CB): The Medellin-based holding company known as Colinversiones will absorb five energy-related subsidiaries as it seeks to simplify its structure. The company’s board unanimously approved the consolidation of Generar SA, Merilectrica SA, Merilectrica SA & Cia., Cia. Colombiana de Energía and Hidromontanitas SA, it said in a filing on the regulator’s Web site. Colinversiones rose 4 percent to 40,000 pesos.

Mexico

Cemex SAB (CEMEXCPO MM): The world’s third-largest cement company said Spanish authorities searched the company’s premises in Spain as part of an investigation of price fixing and market- sharing agreements. Antitrust convictions carry penalties of as much as 10 percent of sales volume, Cemex said in a statement to the Securities and Exchange Commission. Cemex fell 1 percent to 17.22 pesos.

Wal-Mart de Mexico SAB (WALMEXV MM): Latin America’s largest retailer had its price estimate raised to $46 from $35 at Morgan Stanley, according to a research report yesterday. Walmex fell 0.4 percent to 48.63 pesos.

To contact the reporter on this story: Emily Schmall in Mexico City at Eschmall@bloomberg.net




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American Electric, Google, Incyte, Seagate: U.S. Equity Preview

By Lu Wang

Sept. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Shares of the following companies may have unusual moves in U.S. trading. Stock symbols are in parentheses.

American Electric Power Co. (AEP US): The biggest U.S. producer of coal-fueled electricity named Brian Tierney chief financial officer. Tierney, formerly executive vice president of AEP Utilities East, replaces Holly Koeppel, who became CFO in September 2006, the Columbus, Ohio-based company said in a statement.

ATP Oil & Gas Corp. (ATPG US): The energy producer announced and offering of $125 million in convertible perpetual preferred stock and said third-quarter production will be lower than expected.

Google Inc. (GOOG US): The Internet company’s sites led the U.S. core search market in August with 64.6 percent of the searches conducted, ComScore Inc. said.

Incyte Corp. (INCY US): The developer of medicines for immune system diseases said it intends to offer up to $250 million aggregate principal amount of convertible senior notes due 2015 in a private placement.

Seagate Technology (STX US): The world’s largest maker of hard-disk drives said sales this quarter may top its forecast on better-than-expected demand for products used in notebook and desktop computers.

To contact the reporter on this story: Lu Wang in New York at lwang8@bloomberg.net





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U.S. Stock-Index Futures Advance; Seagate, BlackRock Increase

By Adam Haigh

Sept. 23 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stock-index futures gained, indicating the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index may extend an 11- month high, after a sales forecast from Seagate Technology added to signs the global economy is recovering.

Seagate, the largest maker of hard-disk drives, climbed 2.7 percent after saying sales might top its projection as demand improves. BlackRock Inc., the biggest money manager, rose 1.4 percent after Deutsche Bank AG recommended buying the shares.

Futures on the S&P 500 index expiring in December increased 0.2 percent to 1,069.70 as of 7:31 a.m. in New York. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures added 0.1 percent to 9,783. Nasdaq- 100 Index futures gained 0.3 percent to 1,739.

Equities have surged since March as the Group of 20 committed about $12 trillion to revive economic growth and the Federal Reserve kept overnight borrowing costs near zero to unlock credit markets.

“Governments have provided so much liquidity and money through quantitative easing and that money has to go somewhere so you’re getting a recovery in stock markets and other assets,” said Robin Griffiths, chief technical strategist at Cazenove Capital Management in London. “We are coming up to a period where at least a short-term correction would be likely,” he told Bloomberg Television. A correction would amount to a 10 percent to 15 percent decline in equities, he said.

The 58 percent rally in the S&P 500 since March 9 has left the gauge trading at about 20.2 times its companies’ reported profits, the highest level since 2004, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Federal Reserve

Fed officials may signal today that the economy has started to recover while maintaining their pledge to keep the benchmark interest rate near a record low for an “extended period.” Officials will probably debate their purchases of $1.45 trillion in housing debt, including whether to extend the emergency program into 2010, analysts said.

The Federal Open Market Committee is scheduled to issue its statement at around 2:15 p.m. Washington time after the end of its two-day meeting.

G-20 leaders will meet in Pittsburgh for two days starting tomorrow to work on an accord to prevent a repeat of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression and ensure a sustained recovery. International Monetary Fund Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn called on the G-20 to maintain efforts to pull the world economy out of its first recession since World War II, warning that the crisis isn’t over.

Seagate, BlackRock

Seagate added 2.7 percent to $16.10 in pre-market New York trading after saying revenue will “be at or slightly” above the high end of its July forecast of $2.4 billion to $2.6 billion in the first fiscal quarter ending Oct. 3.

Industrywide orders for hard drives should top an earlier forecast of 135 million to 140 million units, the company also said. Deutsche Bank raised the shares to “buy” from “hold.”

BlackRock gained 1.4 percent to $211.08 in Germany after Deutsche Bank lifted its recommendation on the stock to “buy” from “hold.”

Schlumberger Ltd., the largest oilfield-services provider, slipped 0.6 percent to $61.18 in France. Crude declined as much as 1 percent in New York before a report that’s forecast to show U.S. inventories of heating oil and other distillate fuels rose from their highest in 26 years.

Prudential Financial Inc. and Unum Group will probably move after Morgan Stanley lowered the shares to “equal weight” from “overweight” and to “underweight” from “equal weight,” respectively.

Wall Street Strategists

Morgan Stanley cut its recommendation on the U.S. life insurance industry to “in line” from “attractive,” saying further advances are “looking limited” after recent gains. Shares of Prudential Financial and Unum didn’t trade in Europe.

Strategists at Wall Street’s biggest securities firms can’t keep up with the S&P 500 after the steepest surge since the 1930s. The benchmark gauge for U.S. equities climbed 0.7 percent yesterday to 1,071.66, leaving it above all but one of the 10 projections by forecasters in a Bloomberg survey this month, the first time that’s happened in data going back to 1999. The average forecast for the S&P 500 from the strategists is 1,022, about 5 percent below the index’s current level.

To contact the reporter on this story: Adam Haigh in London at ahaigh1@bloomberg.net.





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Tuesday, September 22, 2009

FX Thoughts for the Day

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by Kshitij Consultancy Services | Sep 22 09 12:03 GMT |

USD-CHF @ 1.0243/46...Holding Short

R: 1.0270-1.0300 / 1.0330 / 1.0370-85
S: 1.0220-00 / 1.0137 / 1.0039

Swiss continued to fall during the day breaking below the significant Support at 1.0275 mentioned earlier and is now trading lower below 1.0250. If it continues to trade lower a break below 1.0200 might see a downmove towards 1.0150-30 in the coming sessions. On the upside Resistance is seen in the region 1.0270-0300 which we expect to hold in the US session as the pair is looking weak.

Holding:

USD 10K Short at 1.0355, TSL 1.0270 (down from 1.0295), TP 1.0150 (changed from Open)

As soon as the market trades 1.0180, bring TSL down to 1.0235

Cable GBP-USD @ 1.6339/43...Resistance near 1.64

R: 1.6358-80 / 1.6416-20 / 1.6450
S: 1.6314 / 1.6262-33 / 1.6191

Cable has risen beyond the Resistance at 1.6300 and next faces Resistance at 1.6435. The Projected Max High for the day is at 1.6358. It has already scaled a high of 1.6350 during the day. It seems to have decided to honour the channel at the moment and target its upper end which is at 1.68 over the next several days. However, the Resistance at 1.64 is an important one which will have to be watched to get the confimation whether of a continues rally towards 1.68 once again.

Overall Cable is trading in a broad range of 1.61-1.70 over the last several months.

Aussie AUD-USD @ 0.8738/41...Significant Resistance in the region 0.8750-75

R: 0.8750-75 / 0.8860 / 0.9038
S: 0.8720-00 / 0.8670-50 / 0.8615-00

Aussie as expected continued to rise towards 0.8750 during the day. Significant Resistance is seen in the region 0.8750-75. A strong break above this Resistance region (0.8750-75) might see futher rise towards 0.8850-0.8900 in the coming sessions. On the other hand if this Resistance region (0.8750-75) holds we might see a downmove towards 0.8670-50 in the US session. Note that the projected Max-Low for the day is 0.8655.

Kshitij Consultancy Service
http://www.fxthoughts.com

Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure

These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proferred with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice.Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsibly for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.





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EURUSD: New Fresh High Puts The 1.4875 Level Under Pressure

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FXTechstrategy | Sep 22 09 12:07 GMT |

EURUSD: A two-day recovery ended in another break higher in early trading today pushing EUR further higher to the 1.4797 level at the time of this analysis. This is coming on the back of a hammer formation on Monday and with fresh upside offensives seen, the 1.4875 level, representing its Sept 21'09 high will now be targeted ahead of its psycho level at 1.5000. On the downside, weakness if seen will trigger declines towards the 1.4736/19 level, its Sept 16'09/Dec 18'08 highs ahead of the 1.4634 level, its Sept 11'09 high with a break and hold below there creating scope for further pressure towards the 1.4446 level, its Aug 09 high. This level is of significance in the pair's current run to the upside, as it is expected to reverse roles and provide support. On the whole, having continued to print higher level prices, EUR remains poised to target additional upside gains towards the 1.4875 level.

Support Comments

  • 1.4736/19 Sept 16'09/Dec 18'08 highs
  • 1.4634 Sept 11'09 high
  • 1.4446 Aug 05'09 high

Resistance Comments

  • 1.4875 Sept 21'09 high
  • 1.5000 Psycho level

Mohammed Isah
Market Analyst
www.fxtechstrategy.com

This report is prepared solely for information and data purposes. Opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are the author's own as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed to be reliable but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness and neither the information nor the forecast shall be taken as a representation for which the author incur any responsibility. The does not accept any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. This report is not construed as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any of the currencies referred to in this report





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USD Sharply Lower, ADB Raises China's Growth Forecast

Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by Easy Forex | Sep 22 09 12:29 GMT |

FX Highlights

  • USD is trading sharply lower as the Asian Development Bank raises China's growth forecast equity markets trade higher and risk appetite returns, EUR trades at a one-year high versus the USD and a five month high versus the GBP, gold rises above $1000 an ounce and crude oil prices trade higher, CHF supported by report of rising Swiss exports and upgrade of Swiss GDP forecast, New Zealand dollar trades at a 13 month high versus USD and an 11 month high versus the JPY after the release of report that New Zealand's current account deficit shrank to its narrowest in more than four years and dairy giant Fonterra raises its payout to farmers, USD is also pressured by speculation that the Fed will maintain accommodative monetary policy well into 2010 and that G-20 may call for reduction of global trade imbalances that may cause further USD weakness
  • Focus turns to today's release Canada's retail sales and the start of the FOMC meeting, G-20 meeting set for September 24th and 25th focus on proposed new financial market regulation and global imbalances
  • The Asian Development Bank sees China's 2009 GDP at 8.2% in 2009 and 8.9% in 2010 raises developing Asia's growth forecast to 6.4% from 6%, warns that withdrawing stimulus to early could lead to a double dip recession
  • The New Zealand dollar surged in reaction to report that New Zealand's current-account fell to 5.9% of GDP, trade expected GDP debt ratio of -7.2% and Fonterra Dairy raised its payout to farmers by 12%
  • The Swiss government forecasts 2009 GDP at -1.7% compared to the original forecast of -2.7%, expects GDP to expand in 2010, Swiss July trade surplus widens as exports rise 2%, imports fell 2.5%, CHF higher
  • UK PM Brown says continued stimulus is needed for the global recovery and he does not see a quick exit strategy, GBP higher
  • ECB Weber says interest rates are appropriate and FX not out of line with stronger EU data, EUR higher
  • Pay-Net says that Canada's commercial lending is healthier than the US, CAD higher
  • US equity markets set to open higher, European equities 1% higher, Nikkei closed 73 points lower

Upcoming Events

  • US - Tuesday, no major US economic data is due for release, FOMC begins a two day policy meeting
  • CAN - Tuesday, July retail sales will be released expected at 0.6% compared to 1% last month

By Michael J. Malpede

Easy Forex

Michael J. Malpede is Chief Market Analyst with Easy-Forex® and has previously been featured on Bloomberg TV, Bloomberg radio, Reuters, MarketWatch, Wall Street Journal, Chicago Tribune, Chicago Sun Times, Toronto Star and Nikkei press. In analyzing the markets, he draws from 29 years of Foreign Exchange Research as a Foreign Exchange Analyst.

Please note that Forex trading (OTC Trading) involves substantial risk of loss, and may not be suitable for everyone. This report is provided by Easy- Forex® for informative purposes only. In no way it is a recommendation by Easy-Forex® for you to engage in any trade. It is your sole responsibility and you will have no claims with regards to this report against Easy-Forex®. If you do not agree to this, you are strongly advised not to use this report. Hence, Easy-Forex® shall not be held responsible for any outcome of trading decisions, in regards with this report or similar reports.





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Household Incomes Fell in Five U.S. States in 2008, Census Says

By Timothy R. Homan

Sept. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Five U.S. states that were among the hardest hit by job losses and the construction slump also had declines in household incomes during the first year of the recession, according to a government report.

Arizona, California, Florida, Indiana and Michigan all saw median household incomes drop in 2008, the Census Bureau said yesterday in an annual report. Only one state had a decline the previous year.

The figures highlight concern that consumer spending may hamper a recovery from the worst recession since the 1930s. Falling home values and stock prices have fueled an $11.1 trillion loss in household wealth in the U.S. since the third quarter of 2007, before the recession began.

“Business profits are down considerably, so companies can’t pay the kind of wages that they did” earlier this decade, said Brad Kemp, director of regional economics at Beacon Economics in Los Angeles. “Incomes are going to continue to be affected and be a drag on consumer spending.”

The census report also showed the foreign-born population in the U.S. last year dropped for the first time since 1970, to 37.9 million from 38 million. That same group represented 12.5 percent of the overall population, down from 12.6 percent in 2007. The number of non-citizens also fell, to 21.6 million in 2008 from 21.9 million the previous year.

Nationally, median household income last year fell 3.6 percent to $50,303, snapping three years of increases, the Census Bureau said this month in a separate report.

Maryland had the highest median household income, at $70,545, for the third consecutive year, followed by New Jersey and Connecticut, yesterday’s report showed. Mississippi had the lowest, at $37,790.

Five States Gain

Kansas, Louisiana, New Jersey, New York and Texas had increases in median household income last year compared with 2007. In the previous year, 33 states saw an increase.

Real per capita income for the U.S. as a whole declined by 3.1 percent last year to $26,964, according to an earlier census report.

Workers from the financial services industry to home construction lost their jobs as the recession took a toll. Since the slump began in December 2007, the U.S. has lost 6.9 million jobs. Payroll cuts peaked at 741,000 in January and have since subsided, with 216,000 job losses in August, according to the Labor Department.

California lost 462,000 jobs last year, the most of any state, according to the Labor Department. Florida was next with 375,000 cuts from payrolls, followed by Michigan with 204,000.

Engine of Growth

“The recession hit Florida harder than most states,” said Stan Smith, director of the University of Florida’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research. “Housing was a major engine of growth. The decline in the housing market is a big reason incomes have dropped so much.”

Construction jobs accounted for 29 percent of all job losses in California and Florida, the Labor Department said.

“This has been a very difficult environment,” said Gary Aubuchon, president of Aubuchon Homes in Cape Coral, Florida. Home permits in the Fort Myers area were off as much as 98 percent last year from their peak, he said.

Aubuchon started selling a line of homes for under $200,000 on Labor Day, compared with its prior target of “primarily $400,000 and up,” he said.

In Michigan, declines in manufacturing payrolls contributed 31 percent of all job cuts. Manufacturing accounted for 57 percent of payroll declines in Indiana last year.

Whirlpool Cuts

Whirlpool Corp., the world’s largest appliance maker, is among those companies still eliminating positions. The Benton Harbor, Michigan-based company said Aug. 28 it will close its Evansville, Indiana, manufacturing plant, resulting in the elimination of 1,100 jobs.

Home prices declined 18 percent in 2008, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index. So far this year, property values have dropped only 4.7 percent.

President Barack Obama in February signed into law a $787 billion stimulus package aimed at stabilizing the economy and creating or saving about 3.5 million jobs. So far, the bill has created or saved as many as 1.1 million jobs, the White House said this month.

A new topic in the American Community Survey by the Census Bureau measured the percentage of state residents who lacked health insurance. In Texas, 24.1 percent went without health care in 2008, while only 4.1 percent in Massachusetts were uninsured, the report showed.

The number of people without health insurance coverage rose to 46.3 million last year from 45.7 million in 2007, the census said this month. The uninsured still accounted for 15.4 percent of the population, the same as in 2007, according to the Census figures.

Insurance Tax Proposal

In order to cut costs and make health care accessible to all Americans, Obama and Democratic lawmakers have proposed taxing private insurers, trimming spending in the federal Medicare program for the elderly and disabled and creating a more affordable public plan to expand coverage.

Data from the census report is used to help determine the annual distribution of more than $400 billion in federal and state funds, the Census Bureau said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Timothy R. Homan in Washington at thoman1@bloomberg.net





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Italy Unemployment Rate Rises to 3 1/2-Year High

By Lorenzo Totaro

Sept. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Italy’s unemployment rate rose in the second quarter to the highest since 2005 as Europe’s fourth- largest economy failed to recover from its worst recession since World War II.

Joblessness increased to a seasonally-adjusted 7.4 percent from 7.3 percent in the previous quarter, the national statistics office Istat said in Rome today. That was less than the median forecast of 7.7 percent in a survey of 14 economists by Bloomberg News. The rise in the jobless rate was contained by more people giving up looking for work, and the report showed the number of employed fell the most since 1994.

“There are signs of an economic pickup this year, but the road to full recovery looks like a bumpy one,” said Luigi Speranza, an economist at BNP Paribas in London. “Companies will be cautious in hiring staff and may keep firing people, with serious effects on the labor market.”

Italy contracted for a fifth-straight quarter in the three months through June while Germany and France, the euro region’s biggest economies, both expanded 0.3 percent. Companies such as carmaker Fiat SpA reduced output and jobs, while banks including UniCredit SpA, the country’s biggest lender, plan further cuts for this year and next.

The number of employed fell by 1.6 percent, the biggest drop in the number of employed since 1994. That was the equivalent of 378,000 losing their jobs in the second quarter, today’s report said. The number of unemployed rose to 1.84 million from 1.7 million a year earlier.

Job Cuts

The unemployment rate may exceed 10 percent in 2010 should the recovery remain weak, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said in a Sept. 16 report. The rate will reach 9.5 percent next year with the economy expanding 0.8 percent, employer lobby Confindustria forecast this month.

UniCredit has reduced staff in the retail unit in Italy and abroad by 1,800 since the beginning of the year. It will cut another 400 jobs by year-end and about 2,000 in 2010, Deputy Chief Executive Officer Roberto Nicastro said in a Sept. 18 interview in Bologna, Italy.

Fiat, the country’s biggest carmaker and private employer, said on July 22 that it plans to continue cutting jobs to help reduce costs. Fiat, which runs five auto plants in Italy with a workforce of 31,000, will end car production at a factory in Sicily and reduce positions at its CNH Global NV agricultural and construction-equipment unit, the Turin-based manufacturer said on June 18.

Earlier this year, the government introduced subsidies that expire at the end of December for people who scrap their old car for a new, energy-efficient model. Fiat Chief Executive Officer Sergio Marchionne said on Sept. 16 that if the incentives are not renewed next year, “we’re just going to have to shut down plants and idle them until demand resumes.”

‘Serious’ Problems

Italy’s business confidence reached a 10-month high in August on signs that the incentives boosted orders. Industrial production rose more than economists forecast in July, adding to evidence that the recession may start to ease later this year.

The pace of growth of Europe’s fourth-biggest economy has lagged behind its peers in the euro-region for more than a decade as investments, imports and exports declined, aggravating the effects of waning productivity and competitiveness.

Economists such as Nouriel Roubini, the New York University professor who predicted the financial crisis, remain pessimistic about the future of Italian growth. “Unless economic reforms and structural reforms are undertaken at a faster rate, economic growth is going to remain low and problems with unemployment and the job market will remain serious,” Roubini said in a Sept 4 interview.

To contact the reporter on this story: Lorenzo Totaro in Rome at ltotaro@bloomberg.net



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China Investment Drive May Imperil Local Governments

By Bloomberg News

Sept. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Chinese local governments risk insolvency by guaranteeing bank loans to investment projects, a domestic newspaper reported, citing a central bank official.

Investment vehicles backed by local governments pose fiscal and financial risks, the 21st Century Business Herald reported today, citing Vice Governor Liu Shiyu. He spoke at a company event in Beijing yesterday, the paper said. A central bank spokesman couldn’t be contacted by phone this evening to confirm the comments.

China’s central government is funding a third of a 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus package that spans spending on roads, railways and low-cost homes and runs through 2010. Local governments are putting land, shares or other assets into investment vehicles that borrow from banks for fixed-asset projects, the newspaper said.

“The central government should account for a greater share of the funds needed for the stimulus projects or open the bond market to local governments to stem risks building up in the banking system,” said Qu Hongbin, chief China economist at HSBC Holdings Plc in Hong Kong.

Local-government liabilities tripled to 5.26 trillion yuan as of May 31 from the start of 2008, the Guangzhou-based 21st Century Business Herald reported, citing data from unidentified banks.

Budget Deficit

China plans a record 980 billion yuan budget deficit this year, including 200 billion yuan of bonds sold on behalf of local authorities, who can’t sell the securities themselves.

The central government should let qualified local authorities sell municipal bonds rather than rely on bank loans, central bank official Liu said, according to the newspaper.

Government-led investment is driving the recovery of the world’s third-biggest economy after exports slumped because of the financial crisis. China needs to maintain a proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said in a statement on its Web site today.

The Asian Development Bank raised today its forecast for China’s economic growth this year to 8.2 percent from a previous estimate of 7 percent. It increased its 2010 forecast to 8.9 percent from 8 percent.

--Li Yanping. Editors: Paul Panckhurst, Stephanie Phang.

To contact Bloomberg News staff for this story: Li Yanping in Beijing at +86-10-6649-7568 or yli16@bloomberg.net





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