Economic Calendar

Monday, November 28, 2011

China Profit Growth Slowing as Property Curbs Bite

By Bloomberg News - Nov 28, 2011 11:25 AM GMT+0700

Chinese corporate profit growth, slowing on waning export demand from Europe, may be further undermined as a campaign to cool property prices reduces the value of investments.

Industrial companies’ net income rose 12.5 percent in October from a year earlier, less than half the 27 percent pace from January to September, a statistics bureau statement showed yesterday.

The slowdown adds to evidence that Europe’s deepening financial crisis and a faltering recovery in the U.S. are weighing on profits. More than 60 percent of Chinese companies that sold bonds in the past six months invest in the real estate market, where sales are weakening under government curbs that Vice Premier Li Keqiang pledged on Nov. 25 to maintain.

“The slowdown of the economy will become more prominent in the next two quarters,” said Wang Tao, a Hong Kong-based economist for UBS AG who has also worked for the International Monetary Fund. She said that industrial companies’ profit growth may keep cooling and the government may enact “more obvious policy loosening in the first quarter of next year.”

The government can support growth by ramping up state housing construction, while moderating inflation may leave room for monetary policy loosening.

China’s economy can avoid a so-called hard landing with an expansion of more than 8 percent next year, Wang said. The economy grew 10.4 percent in 2010 and 9.1 percent in the third quarter of this year.

Noyer on Crisis

In Tokyo, Bank of France Governor Christian Noyer said the crisis in Europe, China’s biggest export market, has worsened “significantly” over the past few weeks and bond markets in the euro area “are not functioning normally.”

Asian stocks jumped on speculation that the International Monetary Fund will aid Italy, a topic that Noyer declined to discuss. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 1.9 percent as of 1:16 p.m. in Tokyo, the first increase in four days.

Elsewhere in Asia, Thailand reports production figures today, while the Philippine economy grew a less-than-forecast 3.2 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier, according to government data.

Germany, meanwhile, is due to release inflation figures. In the U.S., a report from the Commerce Department may show fallout from that nation’s housing bubble weighing on the world’s biggest economy.

New homes may have sold at a 313,000 annual rate last month, the same as the previous month, a Bloomberg News survey of analysts shows. That would put the monthly average for the year at 304,000, less than the 323,000 in 2010 that was the lowest since data-keeping began in 1963.

Property Crackdown

In China, the government intensified property measures this year with limits on mortgages and restrictions on home purchases in about 40 cities. October housing transactions declined 25 percent from September and prices fell in 33 of 70 cities.

Seventy-four of 121 companies that filed bond prospectuses since May with Chinabond, the nation’s clearinghouse, count one of their main businesses as real estate, have property subsidiaries or invest in the market. Engine maker Zongshen Power Machinery Co. said its parent company is involved in development. Kangmei Pharmaceutical Co., which makes medicine to treat high blood pressure, invests in real estate.

Most Chinese builders face payment delays from developers as the pace of construction slows amid tighter credit and a slowdown in home sales, Credit Suisse Group AG said in a report. About 80 percent of construction companies said developers were behind on payments, the brokerage said, citing a survey.

Outlook for Loosening

Most economists expect China’s government to loosen some fiscal or monetary policies without cutting interest rates as inflation remains elevated, a Bloomberg News survey showed this month. Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis is sapping export demand just as a crackdown on speculation damps home sales and construction.

Manufacturing may contract this month by the most since March 2009, according to a preliminary purchasing managers’ index. Rising costs may erode margins, with the official Xinhua News Agency reporting that the southern city of Shenzhen will boost the monthly minimum wage by 15 percent to 1,500 yuan ($235) in January to attract workers.

Industrial companies’ sales climbed 29.1 percent to 68.18 trillion yuan for the first 10 months of the year, yesterday’s report showed. Profit declines were reported in industries such as oil processing and power production. Huaneng Power International Inc. (600011) previously reported a 79 percent slide in third-quarter net income.

Not Optimistic

“If economic growth slows further, companies’ profit outlook won’t be very optimistic,” Li Wei, an economist at Standard Chartered Plc in Shanghai, said before yesterday’s release. “Price distortions caused by the government’s administrative controls have affected the operations of power makers and energy producers.”

China’s central bank last week fueled speculation that monetary policy may be eased by letting reserve requirements fall by half a percentage point for more than 20 rural credit cooperatives.

China’s economic growth may slow to 9.2 percent this year and moderate further in 2012, as companies are squeezed by funding difficulties, labor costs, and raw-material prices, Huang Libin, an official from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said Nov. 24.

Li at Standard Chartered said easing inflation may offer “a good opportunity” for the government to correct price distortions in the energy industries. “Calls for reforms are getting stronger,” he said.

The industrial profits data cover companies with annual sales from their main business of at least 20 million yuan in 39 industries including oil and gas exploration, transportation equipment manufacturing, telecommunications and power generation.

To contact Bloomberg News staff on this story: Victoria Ruan in Beijing at vruan1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Paul Panckhurst in Hong Kong at ppanckhurst@bloomberg.net



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IMF Says No Talks Under Way With Italy

By Toru Fujioka and Brendan Murray - Nov 28, 2011 1:46 PM GMT+0700

The International Monetary Fund said it isn’t discussing a rescue package with Italy and Japan said no such talks have occurred within the Group of Seven, amid concern that Italy will struggle to bring down borrowing costs.

The Washington-based lender isn’t in discussions with Italian authorities on a program for IMF financing, a spokesperson for the fund said today in an e-mailed statement. Italy’s La Stampa newspaper reported that the IMF may be preparing a loan of as much as 600 billion euros ($798 billion) to support Italian efforts to restore investor confidence.

“The IMF simply does not have the resources” on its own for such aid, Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co., chief currency strategist at the bank in New York, wrote in a note to clients. It’s also unclear whether the fund would be able to get agreement on leveraging its lending capacity to such a degree, he wrote.

Italy has seen yields on its benchmark 10-year government bonds soar above 7 percent this month as investor skepticism about the nation being able to sustain its debt load deepened. Aid of about 600 billion euros would “essentially” allow Prime Minister Mario Monti’s administration to stay out of the capital markets for 12 to 18 months as it implemented fiscal tightening and sought to win back bondholders’ confidence, Chandler said.

Italy Plans

Japan’s government isn’t sure whether Italy wants a 600 billion-euro IMF rescue, a Japanese government official said on condition of anonymity because of his ministry’s policy. The G-7 hasn’t discussed the issue, the official said.

The IMF, which extended one-third of the rescue packages for Greece, Ireland and Portugal, had about $390 billion available for lending as of Nov. 17, according to data posted on its website. The Italian daily reported that the IMF had several options to increase its firepower, including coordination with the European Central Bank.

Italy would pay an interest rate of 4 percent to 5 percent on the loan, La Stampa reported, without saying where it got the information.

“Schemes to leverage the IMF, which the proposal seems to assume, quickly run into political and technical difficulties,” Chandler said. “It is not clear who bears the cost of the risk. It is not clear that leveraging the IMF would be acceptable to a sufficient number of members.”

Bank of France Governor Christian Noyer said today that markets have forgotten Italy’s strengths, including a strong industrial base. Euro-area bond markets “are not functioning normally,” he said at a forum in Tokyo.

To contact the reporter on this story: Toru Fujioka in Tokyo at tfujioka1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Chris Anstey at canstey@bloomberg.net




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Thanksgiving Sales Set Record as Shoppers With Jobs Chase Bargains: Retail

By Lauren Coleman-Lochner and Matt Townsend - Nov 28, 2011 11:00 AM GMT+0700

U.S. consumers stormed the malls and took to the Web during Thanksgiving weekend, spending a record $52.4 billion at a pace that may be hard to sustain as the holiday shopping season gets under way.

Retail sales climbed 16 percent, and shoppers spent $398.62 on average, up from $365.34 a year earlier, the National Retail Federation said yesterday, citing a survey from BIGresearch. Web sales on Black Friday surged 26 percent to $816 million and 18 percent to $479 million on Thanksgiving Day, said ComScore, a Reston, Virginia-based research firm.

Shoppers took advantage of deals and earlier opening hours at retailers from Gap Inc. (GPS) to Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) to Toys “R” Us Inc. Apparel and electronic sales were particularly strong, said the Washington-based NRF. With the monthly U.S. unemployment rate averaging 9 percent this year, the results suggest consumers with jobs remain willing to spend.

“It’s a good, encouraging sign the consumer is out there despite all the distractions,” said Marshal Cohen, an analyst at NPD Group, a Port Washington, New York-based research firm. “We’ll have an OK holiday,” he said, adding a caveat that the strength of the Thanksgiving holiday may simply have pulled sales forward from December.

Consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the economy, grew at a 2.3 percent annual rate in the third quarter, the fastest pace of 2011, the Commerce Department said Nov. 22. The nation’s savings rate fell, suggesting some consumers used their nest eggs to keep spending.

Added Jobs

The U.S. unemployment rate likely held steady in November, matching the 9 percent average for all 2011, according to the median estimate of 55 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. The economy may have added 120,000 jobs this month, according to the average of 59 estimates. While that’s more than the 80,000 added in October, it’s less than this year’s 125,600 monthly average.

Today analysts will have another opportunity to assess consumers’ resilience when online merchants dangle deals in what has become known as Cyber Monday. On Dec. 1, retailers report same-store sales, a key indicator for retail growth because new and closed locations are excluded.

Black Friday arrived with consumer sentiment at levels previously reached during recessions, as a record share of households said this is a bad time to spend, according to the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index. The measure has reached minus 50 or less in nine of the past 10 weeks, an unprecedented performance in its 26-year history.

Polling Gap

Brisk Black Friday sales may illustrate a gap between what consumers tell pollsters and how they actually behave -- a trend that has prevailed for much of this year, according to Ken Perkins, president of Retail Metrics, a Swampscott, Massachusetts-based research firm.

Industrywide monthly same-store sales have gained for more than two years and missed analysts’ projections once this year, according to Retail Metrics.

“A solid Black Friday suggests the rest of the season should be pretty good,” Perkins said. “Those who have jobs have been willing to spend.”

The NRF didn’t raise its estimate for holiday spending: a 2.8 percent increase in sales, or about half of last year’s 5.2 percent gain.

While some shoppers said they planned to cut back this holiday season, others said they would spend more because their financial prospects have improved.

One was Pam Jones, a 51-year-old mother of two from Columbus, Ohio, who got a job at a medical billing office this year and said she planned to spend $1,200 this holiday season, or about twice as much as usual.

Jeans and T-Shirts

Jones was shopping on Nov. 26 for clothes for her 13-year- old son at an Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (ANF) store in Dublin, Ohio. The New Albany, Ohio-based teen-oriented chain was offering 40 percent off the entire store. Jones purchased jeans and t-shirts emblazoned with the Abercrombie & Fitch logo.

“My son is getting into name-brand fashions now so we want to get those for him,” Jones said. “The stuff is expensive, though, so I came out for the sales.”

Kristen Gartland said she’s nearly doubling her Christmas shopping budget to $350 this year. On Black Friday the 20-year- old waitress filled a cart with oven mitts, stockings and toys for her seven younger siblings at a Target Corp. (TGT) store in Huber Heights, Ohio.

Gartland said she’s positive about her finances because she’s making decent money working at a sports bar.

‘Good Job’

“It’s a good job to have,” she said.

Shoppers such as Stacey Carfi planned to buy for themselves. The 32-year-old controller visiting Washington from Charleston, South Carolina, paid full price for two pairs of pants -- one for herself -- at Lululemon Athletica Inc. (LULU), the Vancouver-based purveyor of yoga gear. She planned to buy herself shoes this holiday, too.

“It is the season for buying, so why not get in on that?” Carfi said.

A record 226 million people went shopping during the Thanksgiving weekend, compared with 212 million last year, the NRF said.

“There seems to be a bit of an exhale happening” with U.S. consumers, Ellen Davis, NRF vice president, said on a conference call yesterday. “They feel like it’s OK to spend a little bit more.”

People shopped in fewer destinations and they spent more money -- indicating they weren’t only buying merchandise advertised in circulars, she said. Department stores were a favorite destination, as they have been all year.

‘Social Experience’

Macy’s Inc. (M) Chief Executive Officer Terry Lundgren said he was struck by how many people in their 20s descended on the Cincinnati-based chain’s flagship store in Manhattan on Black Friday.

“It was almost a continuation of whatever social experience they were having hours before,” he said.

Strong online sales demonstrated that consumers are increasingly comfortable shopping on the Web, said Jennifer Davis, an analyst at Lazard Capital Markets in New York.

“We can definitely expect Cyber Monday sales to be stronger than ever,” she said.

To contact the reporters on this story: Lauren Coleman-Lochner in New York at llochner@bloomberg.net; Matt Townsend in New York at mtownsend9@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Robin Ajello at rajello@bloomberg.net



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U.S. Stock-Index Futures Gain on Europe Optimism, Surge in Holiday Sales

By Nikolaj Gammeltoft and Lynn Thomasson - Nov 28, 2011 11:59 AM GMT+0700

U.S. stock futures rose, signaling the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will end a seven-day losing streak, after Thanksgiving retail sales climbed to a record and speculation grew that European leaders will boost efforts to solve the sovereign-debt crisis.

S&P 500 futures expiring in December advanced 1.8 percent to 1,174.40 as of 1:51 p.m. Tokyo time. The index has fallen 7.9 percent since Nov. 15, including the worst Thanksgiving-week decline since 1932. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.4 percent to 11,347.

“It would be a relief for money managers if we can just move Europe from a negative to a neutral impact on the market,” Dan Veru, chief investment officer at Fort Lee, New Jersey-based Palisade Capital Management LLC, which manages $3.4 billion, said in a telephone interview. “There’s an underpinning of growth in the U.S. and it’s picking up steam.”

U.S. retail sales during the Thanksgiving weekend increased 16 percent to $52.4 billion, according to the National Retail Federation, citing a survey conducted by BIGresearch. The average shopper spent $398.62, up from $365.34 a year earlier.

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble called for fast- track treaty changes to tighten budget discipline to calm markets in an interview with ARD television in Berlin yesterday. Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti is set to propose more austerity measures this week to balance the country’s budget by 2013, the Wall Street Journal reported yesterday.

The increased severity of Europe’s debt crisis is threatening the credit standing of countries in the region, said Moody’s Investors Service in a report today. More than $1.2 trillion has been erased from U.S. stocks since Nov. 15 as concern grows that Europe’s debt crisis will spread and American policy makers failed to reach agreement on reducing the federal budget.

To contact the reporters on this story: Nikolaj Gammeltoft in New York at ngammeltoft@bloomberg.net; Lynn Thomasson in Hong Kong at lthomasson@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Nick Baker at nbaker7@bloomberg.net




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Secret Fed Loans Gave U.S. Banks Undisclosed $13B

By Bob Ivry, Bradley Keoun and Phil Kuntz - Nov 28, 2011 7:01 AM GMT+0700
Bloomberg Markets Magazine

The Federal Reserve and the big banks fought for more than two years to keep details of the largest bailout in U.S. history a secret. Now, the rest of the world can see what it was missing.

The Fed didn’t tell anyone which banks were in trouble so deep they required a combined $1.2 trillion on Dec. 5, 2008, their single neediest day. Bankers didn’t mention that they took tens of billions of dollars in emergency loans at the same time they were assuring investors their firms were healthy. And no one calculated until now that banks reaped an estimated $13 billion of income by taking advantage of the Fed’s below-market rates, Bloomberg Markets magazine reports in its January issue.

Saved by the bailout, bankers lobbied against government regulations, a job made easier by the Fed, which never disclosed the details of the rescue to lawmakers even as Congress doled out more money and debated new rules aimed at preventing the next collapse.

A fresh narrative of the financial crisis of 2007 to 2009 emerges from 29,000 pages of Fed documents obtained under the Freedom of Information Act and central bank records of more than 21,000 transactions. While Fed officials say that almost all of the loans were repaid and there have been no losses, details suggest taxpayers paid a price beyond dollars as the secret funding helped preserve a broken status quo and enabled the biggest banks to grow even bigger.

‘Change Their Votes’

“When you see the dollars the banks got, it’s hard to make the case these were successful institutions,” says Sherrod Brown, a Democratic Senator from Ohio who in 2010 introduced an unsuccessful bill to limit bank size. “This is an issue that can unite the Tea Party and Occupy Wall Street. There are lawmakers in both parties who would change their votes now.”

The size of the bailout came to light after Bloomberg LP, the parent of Bloomberg News, won a court case against the Fed and a group of the biggest U.S. banks called Clearing House Association LLC to force lending details into the open.

The Fed, headed by Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, argued that revealing borrower details would create a stigma -- investors and counterparties would shun firms that used the central bank as lender of last resort -- and that needy institutions would be reluctant to borrow in the next crisis. Clearing House Association fought Bloomberg’s lawsuit up to the U.S. Supreme Court, which declined to hear the banks’ appeal in March 2011.

$7.77 Trillion

The amount of money the central bank parceled out was surprising even to Gary H. Stern, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis from 1985 to 2009, who says he “wasn’t aware of the magnitude.” It dwarfed the Treasury Department’s better-known $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP. Add up guarantees and lending limits, and the Fed had committed $7.77 trillion as of March 2009 to rescuing the financial system, more than half the value of everything produced in the U.S. that year.

“TARP at least had some strings attached,” says Brad Miller, a North Carolina Democrat on the House Financial Services Committee, referring to the program’s executive-pay ceiling. “With the Fed programs, there was nothing.”

Bankers didn’t disclose the extent of their borrowing. On Nov. 26, 2008, then-Bank of America (BAC) Corp. Chief Executive Officer Kenneth D. Lewis wrote to shareholders that he headed “one of the strongest and most stable major banks in the world.” He didn’t say that his Charlotte, North Carolina-based firm owed the central bank $86 billion that day.

‘Motivate Others’

JPMorgan Chase & Co. CEO Jamie Dimon told shareholders in a March 26, 2010, letter that his bank used the Fed’s Term Auction Facility “at the request of the Federal Reserve to help motivate others to use the system.” He didn’t say that the New York-based bank’s total TAF borrowings were almost twice its cash holdings or that its peak borrowing of $48 billion on Feb. 26, 2009, came more than a year after the program’s creation.

Howard Opinsky, a spokesman for JPMorgan (JPM), declined to comment about Dimon’s statement or the company’s Fed borrowings. Jerry Dubrowski, a spokesman for Bank of America, also declined to comment.

The Fed has been lending money to banks through its so- called discount window since just after its founding in 1913. Starting in August 2007, when confidence in banks began to wane, it created a variety of ways to bolster the financial system with cash or easily traded securities. By the end of 2008, the central bank had established or expanded 11 lending facilities catering to banks, securities firms and corporations that couldn’t get short-term loans from their usual sources.

‘Core Function’

“Supporting financial-market stability in times of extreme market stress is a core function of central banks,” says William B. English, director of the Fed’s Division of Monetary Affairs. “Our lending programs served to prevent a collapse of the financial system and to keep credit flowing to American families and businesses.”

The Fed has said that all loans were backed by appropriate collateral. That the central bank didn’t lose money should “lead to praise of the Fed, that they took this extraordinary step and they got it right,” says Phillip Swagel, a former assistant Treasury secretary under Henry M. Paulson and now a professor of international economic policy at the University of Maryland.

The Fed initially released lending data in aggregate form only. Information on which banks borrowed, when, how much and at what interest rate was kept from public view.

The secrecy extended even to members of President George W. Bush’s administration who managed TARP. Top aides to Paulson weren’t privy to Fed lending details during the creation of the program that provided crisis funding to more than 700 banks, say two former senior Treasury officials who requested anonymity because they weren’t authorized to speak.

Big Six

The Treasury Department relied on the recommendations of the Fed to decide which banks were healthy enough to get TARP money and how much, the former officials say. The six biggest U.S. banks, which received $160 billion of TARP funds, borrowed as much as $460 billion from the Fed, measured by peak daily debt calculated by Bloomberg using data obtained from the central bank. Paulson didn’t respond to a request for comment.

The six -- JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup Inc. (C), Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC), Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) and Morgan Stanley -- accounted for 63 percent of the average daily debt to the Fed by all publicly traded U.S. banks, money managers and investment- services firms, the data show. By comparison, they had about half of the industry’s assets before the bailout, which lasted from August 2007 through April 2010. The daily debt figure excludes cash that banks passed along to money-market funds.

Bank Supervision

While the emergency response prevented financial collapse, the Fed shouldn’t have allowed conditions to get to that point, says Joshua Rosner, a banking analyst with Graham Fisher & Co. in New York who predicted problems from lax mortgage underwriting as far back as 2001. The Fed, the primary supervisor for large financial companies, should have been more vigilant as the housing bubble formed, and the scale of its lending shows the “supervision of the banks prior to the crisis was far worse than we had imagined,” Rosner says.

Bernanke in an April 2009 speech said that the Fed provided emergency loans only to “sound institutions,” even though its internal assessments described at least one of the biggest borrowers, Citigroup, as “marginal.”

On Jan. 14, 2009, six days before the company’s central bank loans peaked, the New York Fed gave CEO Vikram Pandit a report declaring Citigroup’s financial strength to be “superficial,” bolstered largely by its $45 billion of Treasury funds. The document was released in early 2011 by the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission, a panel empowered by Congress to probe the causes of the crisis.

‘Need Transparency’

Andrea Priest, a spokeswoman for the New York Fed, declined to comment, as did Jon Diat, a spokesman for Citigroup.

“I believe that the Fed should have independence in conducting highly technical monetary policy, but when they are putting taxpayer resources at risk, we need transparency and accountability,” says Alabama Senator Richard Shelby, the top Republican on the Senate Banking Committee.

Judd Gregg, a former New Hampshire senator who was a lead Republican negotiator on TARP, and Barney Frank, a Massachusetts Democrat who chaired the House Financial Services Committee, both say they were kept in the dark.

“We didn’t know the specifics,” says Gregg, who’s now an adviser to Goldman Sachs.

“We were aware emergency efforts were going on,” Frank says. “We didn’t know the specifics.”

Disclose Lending

Frank co-sponsored the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, billed as a fix for financial-industry excesses. Congress debated that legislation in 2010 without a full understanding of how deeply the banks had depended on the Fed for survival.

It would have been “totally appropriate” to disclose the lending data by mid-2009, says David Jones, a former economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York who has written four books about the central bank.

“The Fed is the second-most-important appointed body in the U.S., next to the Supreme Court, and we’re dealing with a democracy,” Jones says. “Our representatives in Congress deserve to have this kind of information so they can oversee the Fed.”

The Dodd-Frank law required the Fed to release details of some emergency-lending programs in December 2010. It also mandated disclosure of discount-window borrowers after a two- year lag.

Protecting TARP

TARP and the Fed lending programs went “hand in hand,” says Sherrill Shaffer, a banking professor at the University of Wyoming in Laramie and a former chief economist at the New York Fed. While the TARP money helped insulate the central bank from losses, the Fed’s willingness to supply seemingly unlimited financing to the banks assured they wouldn’t collapse, protecting the Treasury’s TARP investments, he says.

“Even though the Treasury was in the headlines, the Fed was really behind the scenes engineering it,” Shaffer says.

Congress, at the urging of Bernanke and Paulson, created TARP in October 2008 after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. made it difficult for financial institutions to get loans. Bank of America and New York-based Citigroup each received $45 billion from TARP. At the time, both were tapping the Fed. Citigroup hit its peak borrowing of $99.5 billion in January 2009, while Bank of America topped out in February 2009 at $91.4 billion.

No Clue

Lawmakers knew none of this.

They had no clue that one bank, New York-based Morgan Stanley (MS), took $107 billion in Fed loans in September 2008, enough to pay off one-tenth of the country’s delinquent mortgages. The firm’s peak borrowing occurred the same day Congress rejected the proposed TARP bill, triggering the biggest point drop ever in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. (INDU) The bill later passed, and Morgan Stanley got $10 billion of TARP funds, though Paulson said only “healthy institutions” were eligible.

Mark Lake, a spokesman for Morgan Stanley, declined to comment, as did spokesmen for Citigroup and Goldman Sachs.

Had lawmakers known, it “could have changed the whole approach to reform legislation,” says Ted Kaufman, a former Democratic Senator from Delaware who, with Brown, introduced the bill to limit bank size.

Moral Hazard

Kaufman says some banks are so big that their failure could trigger a chain reaction in the financial system. The cost of borrowing for so-called too-big-to-fail banks is lower than that of smaller firms because lenders believe the government won’t let them go under. The perceived safety net creates what economists call moral hazard -- the belief that bankers will take greater risks because they’ll enjoy any profits while shifting losses to taxpayers.

If Congress had been aware of the extent of the Fed rescue, Kaufman says, he would have been able to line up more support for breaking up the biggest banks.

Byron L. Dorgan, a former Democratic senator from North Dakota, says the knowledge might have helped pass legislation to reinstate the Glass-Steagall Act, which for most of the last century separated customer deposits from the riskier practices of investment banking.

“Had people known about the hundreds of billions in loans to the biggest financial institutions, they would have demanded Congress take much more courageous actions to stop the practices that caused this near financial collapse,” says Dorgan, who retired in January.

Getting Bigger

Instead, the Fed and its secret financing helped America’s biggest financial firms get bigger and go on to pay employees as much as they did at the height of the housing bubble.

Total assets held by the six biggest U.S. banks increased 39 percent to $9.5 trillion on Sept. 30, 2011, from $6.8 trillion on the same day in 2006, according to Fed data.

For so few banks to hold so many assets is “un-American,” says Richard W. Fisher, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. “All of these gargantuan institutions are too big to regulate. I’m in favor of breaking them up and slimming them down.”

Employees at the six biggest banks made twice the average for all U.S. workers in 2010, based on Bureau of Labor Statistics hourly compensation cost data. The banks spent $146.3 billion on compensation in 2010, or an average of $126,342 per worker, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s up almost 20 percent from five years earlier compared with less than 15 percent for the average worker. Average pay at the banks in 2010 was about the same as in 2007, before the bailouts.

‘Wanted to Pretend’

“The pay levels came back so fast at some of these firms that it appeared they really wanted to pretend they hadn’t been bailed out,” says Anil Kashyap, a former Fed economist who’s now a professor of economics at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. “They shouldn’t be surprised that a lot of people find some of the stuff that happened totally outrageous.”

Bank of America took over Merrill Lynch & Co. at the urging of then-Treasury Secretary Paulson after buying the biggest U.S. home lender, Countrywide Financial Corp. When the Merrill Lynch purchase was announced on Sept. 15, 2008, Bank of America had $14.4 billion in emergency Fed loans and Merrill Lynch had $8.1 billion. By the end of the month, Bank of America’s loans had reached $25 billion and Merrill Lynch’s had exceeded $60 billion, helping both firms keep the deal on track.

Prevent Collapse

Wells Fargo bought Wachovia Corp., the fourth-largest U.S. bank by deposits before the 2008 acquisition. Because depositors were pulling their money from Wachovia, the Fed channeled $50 billion in secret loans to the Charlotte, North Carolina-based bank through two emergency-financing programs to prevent collapse before Wells Fargo could complete the purchase.

“These programs proved to be very successful at providing financial markets the additional liquidity and confidence they needed at a time of unprecedented uncertainty,” says Ancel Martinez, a spokesman for Wells Fargo.

JPMorgan absorbed the country’s largest savings and loan, Seattle-based Washington Mutual Inc., and investment bank Bear Stearns Cos. The New York Fed, then headed by Timothy F. Geithner, who’s now Treasury secretary, helped JPMorgan complete the Bear Stearns deal by providing $29 billion of financing, which was disclosed at the time. The Fed also supplied Bear Stearns with $30 billion of secret loans to keep the company from failing before the acquisition closed, central bank data show. The loans were made through a program set up to provide emergency funding to brokerage firms.

‘Regulatory Discretion’

“Some might claim that the Fed was picking winners and losers, but what the Fed was doing was exercising its professional regulatory discretion,” says John Dearie, a former speechwriter at the New York Fed who’s now executive vice president for policy at the Financial Services Forum, a Washington-based group consisting of the CEOs of 20 of the world’s biggest financial firms. “The Fed clearly felt it had what it needed within the requirements of the law to continue to lend to Bear and Wachovia.”

The bill introduced by Brown and Kaufman in April 2010 would have mandated shrinking the six largest firms.

“When a few banks have advantages, the little guys get squeezed,” Brown says. “That, to me, is not what capitalism should be.”

Kaufman says he’s passionate about curbing too-big-to-fail banks because he fears another crisis.

‘Can We Survive?’

“The amount of pain that people, through no fault of their own, had to endure -- and the prospect of putting them through it again -- is appalling,” Kaufman says. “The public has no more appetite for bailouts. What would happen tomorrow if one of these big banks got in trouble? Can we survive that?”

Lobbying expenditures by the six banks that would have been affected by the legislation rose to $29.4 million in 2010 compared with $22.1 million in 2006, the last full year before credit markets seized up -- a gain of 33 percent, according to OpenSecrets.org, a research group that tracks money in U.S. politics. Lobbying by the American Bankers Association, a trade organization, increased at about the same rate, OpenSecrets.org reported.

Lobbyists argued the virtues of bigger banks. They’re more stable, better able to serve large companies and more competitive internationally, and breaking them up would cost jobs and cause “long-term damage to the U.S. economy,” according to a Nov. 13, 2009, letter to members of Congress from the FSF.

The group’s website cites Nobel Prize-winning economist Oliver E. Williamson, a professor emeritus at the University of California, Berkeley, for demonstrating the greater efficiency of large companies.

‘Serious Burden’

In an interview, Williamson says that the organization took his research out of context and that efficiency is only one factor in deciding whether to preserve too-big-to-fail banks.

“The banks that were too big got even bigger, and the problems that we had to begin with are magnified in the process,” Williamson says. “The big banks have incentives to take risks they wouldn’t take if they didn’t have government support. It’s a serious burden on the rest of the economy.”

Dearie says his group didn’t mean to imply that Williamson endorsed big banks.

Top officials in President Barack Obama’s administration sided with the FSF in arguing against legislative curbs on the size of banks.

Geithner, Kaufman

On May 4, 2010, Geithner visited Kaufman in his Capitol Hill office. As president of the New York Fed in 2007 and 2008, Geithner helped design and run the central bank’s lending programs. The New York Fed supervised four of the six biggest U.S. banks and, during the credit crunch, put together a daily confidential report on Wall Street’s financial condition. Geithner was copied on these reports, based on a sampling of e- mails released by the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission.

At the meeting with Kaufman, Geithner argued that the issue of limiting bank size was too complex for Congress and that people who know the markets should handle these decisions, Kaufman says. According to Kaufman, Geithner said he preferred that bank supervisors from around the world, meeting in Basel, Switzerland, make rules increasing the amount of money banks need to hold in reserve. Passing laws in the U.S. would undercut his efforts in Basel, Geithner said, according to Kaufman.

Anthony Coley, a spokesman for Geithner, declined to comment.

‘Punishing Success’

Lobbyists for the big banks made the winning case that forcing them to break up was “punishing success,” Brown says. Now that they can see how much the banks were borrowing from the Fed, senators might think differently, he says.

The Fed supported curbing too-big-to-fail banks, including giving regulators the power to close large financial firms and implementing tougher supervision for big banks, says Fed General Counsel Scott G. Alvarez. The Fed didn’t take a position on whether large banks should be dismantled before they get into trouble.

Dodd-Frank does provide a mechanism for regulators to break up the biggest banks. It established the Financial Stability Oversight Council that could order teetering banks to shut down in an orderly way. The council is headed by Geithner.

“Dodd-Frank does not solve the problem of too big to fail,” says Shelby, the Alabama Republican. “Moral hazard and taxpayer exposure still very much exist.”

Below Market

Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington, says banks “were either in bad shape or taking advantage of the Fed giving them a good deal. The former contradicts their public statements. The latter -- getting loans at below-market rates during a financial crisis -- is quite a gift.”

The Fed says it typically makes emergency loans more expensive than those available in the marketplace to discourage banks from abusing the privilege. During the crisis, Fed loans were among the cheapest around, with funding available for as low as 0.01 percent in December 2008, according to data from the central bank and money-market rates tracked by Bloomberg.

The Fed funds also benefited firms by allowing them to avoid selling assets to pay investors and depositors who pulled their money. So the assets stayed on the banks’ books, earning interest.

Banks report the difference between what they earn on loans and investments and their borrowing expenses. The figure, known as net interest margin, provides a clue to how much profit the firms turned on their Fed loans, the costs of which were included in those expenses. To calculate how much banks stood to make, Bloomberg multiplied their tax-adjusted net interest margins by their average Fed debt during reporting periods in which they took emergency loans.

Added Income

The 190 firms for which data were available would have produced income of $13 billion, assuming all of the bailout funds were invested at the margins reported, the data show.

The six biggest U.S. banks’ share of the estimated subsidy was $4.8 billion, or 23 percent of their combined net income during the time they were borrowing from the Fed. Citigroup would have taken in the most, with $1.8 billion.

“The net interest margin is an effective way of getting at the benefits that these large banks received from the Fed,” says Gerald A. Hanweck, a former Fed economist who’s now a finance professor at George Mason University in Fairfax, Virginia.

While the method isn’t perfect, it’s impossible to state the banks’ exact profits or savings from their Fed loans because the numbers aren’t disclosed and there isn’t enough publicly available data to figure it out.

Opinsky, the JPMorgan spokesman, says he doesn’t think the calculation is fair because “in all likelihood, such funds were likely invested in very short-term investments,” which typically bring lower returns.

Standing Access

Even without tapping the Fed, the banks get a subsidy by having standing access to the central bank’s money, says Viral Acharya, a New York University economics professor who has worked as an academic adviser to the New York Fed.

“Banks don’t give lines of credit to corporations for free,” he says. “Why should all these government guarantees and liquidity facilities be for free?”

In the September 2008 meeting at which Paulson and Bernanke briefed lawmakers on the need for TARP, Bernanke said that if nothing was done, “unemployment would rise -- to 8 or 9 percent from the prevailing 6.1 percent,” Paulson wrote in “On the Brink” (Business Plus, 2010).

Occupy Wall Street

The U.S. jobless rate hasn’t dipped below 8.8 percent since March 2009, 3.6 million homes have been foreclosed since August 2007, according to data provider RealtyTrac Inc., and police have clashed with Occupy Wall Street protesters, who say government policies favor the wealthiest citizens, in New York, Boston, Seattle and Oakland, California.

The Tea Party, which supports a more limited role for government, has its roots in anger over the Wall Street bailouts, says Neil M. Barofsky, former TARP special inspector general and a Bloomberg Television contributing editor.

“The lack of transparency is not just frustrating; it really blocked accountability,” Barofsky says. “When people don’t know the details, they fill in the blanks. They believe in conspiracies.”

In the end, Geithner had his way. The Brown-Kaufman proposal to limit the size of banks was defeated, 60 to 31. Bank supervisors meeting in Switzerland did mandate minimum reserves that institutions will have to hold, with higher levels for the world’s largest banks, including the six biggest in the U.S. Those rules can be changed by individual countries.

They take full effect in 2019.

Meanwhile, Kaufman says, “we’re absolutely, totally, 100 percent not prepared for another financial crisis.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Bob Ivry in New York at bivry@bloomberg.net; Bradley Keoun in New York at bkeoun@bloomberg.net; Phil Kuntz in New York at pkuntz1@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Gary Putka at gputka@bloomberg.net; David Scheer at dscheer@bloomberg.net.



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Asia Stocks, Euro Advance on EU Outlook

By Shiyin Chen - Nov 28, 2011 2:05 PM GMT+0700

Asian shares (MXAP) advanced for the first time in four days, U.S. stock futures and commodities climbed, and the euro gained against the dollar and yen amid speculation European policy makers are taking steps to stem the debt crisis and as America’s Thanksgiving retail sales jumped to a record.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 2 percent at 4:02 p.m. in Tokyo. Euro Stoxx 50 futures were up 1.5 percent and Standard & Poor’s 500 Index contracts rallied 2 percent, signaling the U.S. gauge may end a seven-day drop. Treasuries slid and the Dollar Index headed for the biggest decline in more than two weeks. The euro strengthened 0.5 percent to $1.3387. New Zealand’s dollar rose 1.7 percent after Prime Minister John Key was re-elected. S&P’s GSCI Index of raw materials rebounded from a five-week low.

About $4.6 trillion has been wiped out from global equity values this month as concern Europe’s crisis will spread spurred a surge in Italian borrowing costs. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble urged fast-track treaty changes to tighten budget discipline to calm markets. U.S. retail sales during Thanksgiving climbed 16 percent to a record.

There are “a lot of good things going on that’s not recognized by the market right now,” John Vail, chief global strategist and head of asset allocation at Nikko Asset Management, said in a Bloomberg Television interview from Tokyo. “It’s not all bad news. We’re still overweight equities.”

Stocks Rebound

More than three shares rose for every one that declined on MSCI’s Asia Pacific Index, set for the largest jump since Nov. 4. The gauge sank 4.6 percent last week, the most since the five days ended Sept. 23, and trades at 12.3 times estimated profits, lower than the five-year average multiple of 16.4 times, data compiled by Bloomberg shows. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average climbed 1.6 percent, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index gained 1.9 percent, and South Korea’s Kospi Index added 2.2 percent.

LG Electronics Inc. (066570) surged 8.6 percent and Li & Fung Ltd. (494) rallied 8.8 percent, pacing gains among companies that export to the U.S. Qantas Airways Ltd. (QAN) advanced 3.4 percent, the first gain in eight days, after Australia’s biggest carrier predicted profit that beat analysts’ expectations.

S&P 500 futures expiring in December signal the equity index may rebound from a seven-day, 7.9 percent slump that was its longest losing streak since August. Retail sales totaled $52.4 billion during the holiday weekend and the average shopper spent $398.62, up from $365.34 a year earlier, the Washington- based National Retail Federation said yesterday, citing a survey conducted by BIGresearch. Treasury 10-year yields increased four basis points to 2 percent.

‘Mild Recovery’

The retail sales data proved the U.S. is “in a mild recovery, and consumer’s purchasing power isn’t something to be pessimistic about,” helping exporters in Asia, said Naoki Fujiwara, who helps oversee $6 billion at Shinkin Asset Management Co. in Tokyo.

The Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the U.S. currency against those of six trading partners, dropped 0.4 percent, set for the largest slump since Nov. 11. The greenback slipped 0.1 percent to 77.68 yen and weakened 1.4 percent to 98.51 cents against its Australian counterpart.

The euro rebounded from a four-week slump against the dollar and strengthened 0.3 percent to 103.20 yen. The 17-nation currency earlier rallied as much as 0.7 percent versus the dollar after La Stampa reported without saying where it got the information the International Monetary Fund is preparing a 600 billion euro ($799 billion) loan for Italy in case the debt crisis worsens.

Lacking Resources

The IMF is not in talks with Italy about a loan program, a spokesman said today in an e-mailed statement. The Washington- based lender had about $390 billion available for lending as of Nov. 17, which Managing Director Christine Lagarde has said may not suffice to meet loan demand if the global outlook worsens.

The reported IMF funding level appeared “wide of the mark,” Marc Chandler, chief currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co., wrote in a note to clients. “The IMF simply does not have the resources.”

Treaty change is necessary to give veto power over member- state budgets to the European Union Commission, Germany’s Schaeuble said on ARD television in Berlin yesterday. The European Financial Stability Facility may insure bonds of troubled countries with guarantees of between 20 percent and 30 percent of each issue to be determined in light of market circumstances, according to EFSF guidelines to be considered by finance ministers this week.

The kiwi rallied 1.7 percent to 75.29 U.S. cents. Key’s National Party won 48 percent of the vote on Nov. 26, up from 45 percent three years ago, allowing him to form the next government with support from political allies in parliament. His administration will focus on advancing the sale of state assets and returning the budget to surplus by 2014 to 2015 or earlier, the 50-year-old leader said in Auckland after the election.

Bond Risk

The cost of insuring Asia-Pacific corporate and sovereign bonds from non-payment declined, with the Markit iTraxx Asia index of 40 investment-grade borrowers outside Japan decreasing seven basis points to 231, Royal Bank of Scotland prices show. That will be its first decline since Nov. 18, and the biggest daily drop since Nov. 10, according to data provider CMA, which is owned by CME Group Inc.

S&P’s GSCI Index rose 1.4 percent, after falling on Nov. 25 to the lowest close since Oct. 21. Crude for January delivery rose as much as 2.2 percent to $98.88 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Three-month copper rallied as much as 3.5 percent to $7,480 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange. Spot gold gained 1.3 percent to $1,704.58 an ounce, while wheat, corn and soybean futures gained at least 0.8 percent each.

To contact the reporter on this story: Shiyin Chen in Singapore at schen37@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Alexander Kwiatkowski at akwiatkowsk2@bloomberg.net




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NetApp Taking on EMC Puts CommVault in Takeover Sights: Real M&A

By Joseph Ciolli - Nov 28, 2011 8:05 AM GMT+0700

NetApp Inc.’s need for acquisitions to help regain $7 billion in lost market value (NTAP) and keep up with data-storage rival EMC (EMC) Corp. may put CommVault Systems Inc. and Quantum (QTM) Corp. in its sights.

NetApp, which sells hardware and software to more efficiently store and access data, has slumped 38 percent in 2011, almost five times more than the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, as sales fell short of analysts’ estimates, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. With cash at the Sunnyvale, California-based company reaching a record this year, NetApp should now use its $4.64 billion for takeovers as revenue growth slows, said ISI Group.

After NetApp boosted sales more than any other data-storage vendor in 2010, the $12.6 billion company has seen expansion slow as European customers grapple with a sovereign debt crisis and EMC, the world’s biggest maker of storage computers, claims more market share. With EMC spending 12 times more on acquisitions in the past decade, NetApp should acquire a data manager such as CommVault (CVLT), according to Robert W. Baird & Co., or Quantum, said ISI, to expand its product and add customers.

“The environment for what they do has gotten more competitive,” Bill Choi, a New York-based analyst at Janney Montgomery Scott LLC, said in a phone interview. “They’ve been extremely successful but have gotten to a point where they need to have a more complete solution set if they’re going to get more customers. They need to keep doing some strategic M&A.”

Stock Decline

Lindsey Smith, an outside spokeswoman for NetApp, declined to comment on potential acquisitions. Bob Wientzen, a spokesman for San Jose, California-based Quantum, and Dani Kenison, a spokeswoman for Oceanport, New Jersey-based CommVault, declined to comment on the possibility of an acquisition by NetApp.

NetApp has fallen 38 percent this year, compared with a 7.9 percent decline for the S&P 500, as the company’s sales results and forecasts missed analysts’ estimates. Purchases by large corporate customers and governments were less than NetApp’s sales force projected as Europe’s sovereign debt crisis threatened to push the global economy back into a recession.

The company is also facing a potential shortfall in computer hard-disk drives because of flooding in Thailand. While NetApp said it has bought enough inventory in advance to last through the end of December, Chief Financial Officer Steven Gomo said on a conference call this month that it’s “difficult for anyone to predict the business impact beyond that.”

Cautious Spenders


“Right now there’s a macro-level concern,” given that about 25 percent of NetApp’s revenue is generated in Europe, Eric Martinuzzi, a Minneapolis-based analyst at Craig-Hallum Capital Group LLC, said in a phone interview. “The bigger issue is more about macro demand and a lack of hard-disk drive supply. People are getting more cautious about spending.”

NetApp’s data-storage revenue climbed 34 percent to almost $4.9 billion in 2010, outstripping the growth of its five largest competitors, according to a Nov. 21 research note by Shebly Seyrafi, a New York-based analyst at FBN Securities Inc.

In the last two quarters, NetApp’s growth slowed to 12 percent and 6 percent, less than the rates of its rivals EMC of Hopkinton, Massachusetts, and Tokyo-based Hitachi Ltd. (6501), the data show. Last quarter EMC and Hitachi increased data-storage sales by 16 percent and 25 percent, respectively.

“The pressure on the stock is people questioning whether or not there’s been a change in the competitive positioning of the company,” Aaron Rakers, a St. Louis-based analyst at Stifel Nicolaus & Co., said in a phone interview.

‘Aggressive Competitor’

EMC commanded 28.7 percent of global disk-storage-system revenue in the second quarter, up 3.1 percentage points from the same period a year ago, according to Framingham, Massachusetts- based researcher IDC. NetApp’s market share increased only 1.4 percentage points to 12.8 percent, IDC’s data show.

“EMC is an aggressive competitor,” Timothy Ghriskey, who oversees $2 billion as chief investment officer of Solaris Group LLC in Bedford Hills, New York, said in a phone interview. “It appears that they may have taken some market share from NetApp.”

NetApp’s cash and short-term investments climbed to a record $5.17 billion in the quarter ended April 29. The company still had $4.64 billion in cash and only $1.39 billion in debt as of its fiscal second quarter, which ended Oct. 28.

“They certainly have a rich balance sheet to go out and implement some strategic M&A,” Brian Marshall, a San Francisco- based analyst at ISI, said in a phone interview. “NetApp would be able to garner additional growth on top of their already stellar growth with aggressive M&A.”

‘Bigger Deal’

NetApp should look outside traditional storage companies and more at data-management providers for acquisition opportunities, Jayson Noland, a San Francisco-based analyst at Robert W. Baird, said in a phone interview. CommVault, which specializes in backup and recovery software that makes it cheaper and easier to handle data, may be a good fit, he said.

“Data management is becoming a bigger and bigger deal,” Noland said. “That’s an area of the market that I could see NetApp pursuing.”

Fueled in part by takeover speculation, CommVault rose 53 percent this year, giving it a market value of $1.9 billion. The shares reached a record high of $49.90 on Nov. 15.

Acquiring Quantum, which handles backup, deduplication, recovery and archiving of data, would also make “tremendous sense” for NetApp, said ISI’s Marshall. NetApp is already a reseller of Quantum’s StorNext file system and storage manager.

Quantum’s market value has fallen 36 percent this year to $523.5 million, less than one-twentieth the size of NetApp.

‘More Like EMC’

In 2009 EMC bought Data Domain Inc., which also eliminates duplicated data, for about $2 billion, outbidding NetApp.

Data Domain has been “growing quite rapidly within EMC, but it could have been growing rapidly in NetApp instead,” FBN’s Seyrafi said in a phone interview. “They could acquire Quantum, which would allow them to get more involved in deduplication. It’s been a business they’ve wanted since they made a bid for Data Domain.”

While NetApp has plunged more than the S&P 500 this year, EMC only slipped 4.5 percent, outperforming the benchmark gauge for U.S. equities. In the past 10 years, EMC has spent $10.9 billion on takeovers as the company diversified into products for security, analyzing data and running computer servers, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. NetApp spent $844 million in the same period.

“The company should be a little bit more like EMC,” said ISI’s Marshall. “They buy companies and they use their scale to push the acquired products through their channel.”

Takeover Speculation

NetApp itself has been the subject of takeover speculation after it missed out on Data Domain and Hewlett-Packard Co. won a bidding war with Dell Inc. (DELL) to acquire data-storage company 3Par Inc. at a 235 percent premium last year.

With NetApp last month reaching its cheapest level relative to earnings since January 2009, it may be a target for a company looking to bolster its position in data storage, Peter Karazeris, a Minneapolis-based analyst at Thrivent Asset Management, which manages about $73 billion including NetApp shares, said in a phone interview.

While Karazeris said NetApp may be better off focusing on its new products next year than on takeovers to revitalize growth, the company needs a broader offering to be a more complete solution for its customers, according to Janney Montgomery’s Choi.

“They’re between a rock and a hard place,” Choi said. “As you get to be a bigger and bigger vendor, you need a more filled out solution set, which EMC has done a good job of. If you’re NetApp’s size, you have a pretty good solution today, but they’ll have to do acquisitions to be more a la carte to meet the needs of their customers.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Joseph Ciolli in New York at jciolli@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Daniel Hauck at dhauck1@bloomberg.net; Katherine Snyder at ksnyder@bloomberg.net.



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Toyota Seeks to Revamp ‘Not Fun’ Image

By Anna Mukai - Nov 28, 2011 8:05 AM GMT+0700

Toyota Motor Corp. (7203) introduced its new 86 coupe yesterday, betting that the 200-horsepower sports car will widen the Japanese automaker’s appeal beyond its best- selling Camry sedan and Prius hybrid.

The rear-wheel-drive 86, which has a top speed of 230 kilometers (142 miles) an hour, will be available in the northern hemisphere spring next year, according to the Toyota City, Japan-based company. The price will be pegged to a college graduate’s starting salary to attract young buyers, said Tetsuya Tada, the car’s chief engineer.

Toyota, poised to lose the title of world’s largest automaker to General Motors Co. (GM), is renewing a push for sports cars under Akio Toyoda, who became president in June 2009. The carmaker is hoping the new model will burnish its image that’s been battered by recalls and production interrupted by the nation’s record earthquake and flooding in Thailand.

“Toyota’s cars are traditionally seen as not fun,” said Takayuki Kinoshita, a racing enthusiast and author of ‘Akio Toyoda’s Character: The Rebirth of Toyota.’ “It’s good that Toyota could introduce this car under Akio’s direction. It may change Toyota’s image among drivers.”

Toyota rose 3.1 percent to 2,487 yen as of 9:44 a.m. in Tokyo trading, compared with a 1.4 percent gain in the benchmark Nikkei 225 Stock Average. (NKY)

The 86 derives its name from the AE86 Corolla Levin sports car it was based on and aims to be a car that “evolves with its owner,” the automaker said in an e-mailed release. It accelerates from standstill to 100 kilometers per hour in six seconds, according to Tada.

Pouncing Predator

The model features Toyota’s smallest steering wheel at 365 millimeters (14.4 inches) in diameter, a front design that evokes a “predator about to pounce” and fuel efficiency to match that of a 2-liter-engine sedan, according to the company. It was co-developed with Subaru-brand owner Fuji Heavy Industries Ltd.

“The 86 is a great car that’s fit for driving on any kind of road,” said Toyoda, who drove a production prototype at a preview yesterday at the former Formula One racetrack in Japan’s Shizuoka prefecture. “It’s compact and easy to handle.”

Toyoda touts the role of racing in car development and has taken part in 24-hour endurance events. Under his leadership, the carmaker’s luxury Lexus division rolled out the Lexus LFA $375,000 supercar.

“The design is very new and refreshing, and the orange color is cool,” said Hirotaka Teraoka, a car fan who traveled from Hiroshima city southwest of Tokyo to the preview. “The low body and the smooth design is great, and it looks like the Lexus LFA.”

James Bond

Toyota’s newest sports addition extends the lineage of racing machines that date back to its first supercar, the 2000GT, which was featured in the 1967 James Bond movie, “You Only Live Twice,” starring Sean Connery.

Other sports cars that Toyota has discontinued include the Supra, built between 1986 and 2002 and featured in the 2001 racing movie “The Fast and the Furious,” the MR-S roadster that ended production in 2007, and the Celica, made between 1970 and 2006.

While sports models traditionally contribute little to sales volume and profit, Kinoshita says Toyota’s 86 may appeal to different types of customers: young drivers new to the series, and men in their 50s who used to drive its previous incarnation, the AE86 Corolla.

“To keep cars exciting and fun, it’s necessary to have sports cars in our lineup,” Toyoda, in full-body racing suit, said yesterday. “I want this car to create more driving fans.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Anna Mukai in Tokyo at amukai1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Chua Kong Ho at kchua6@bloomberg.net





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Schaeuble Says Euro Fund Needs More Work to Reverse ‘Crisis of Confidence’

By Brian Parkin and Mark Deen - Nov 28, 2011 9:11 AM GMT+0700

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said that European governments are struggling to enact a pledge to beef up the euro rescue fund, as he called for fast- track treaty changes to tighten budget discipline as the key to calming markets.

Schaeuble, in an interview with ARD television in Berlin, said that the European Financial Stability Facility recently paid a higher rate of interest on debt than France or the other AAA rated countries that guarantee the EFSF, underscoring the “crisis of confidence” in the euro area. The “decisive” answer remains budget discipline enforced by means of European Union treaty change, he said.

Treaty change is necessary to give veto power over member- state budgets to the EU Commission, Schaeuble said in the interview broadcast late yesterday. “We can do that quickly and this will send an important signal to markets that the euro is and remains a stable currency,” he said.

Euro-area finance ministers will meet in Brussels tomorrow as governments bid to regain the confidence of financial markets after a week in which the euro-area sovereign debt crisis worsened. Under guidelines to be considered by finance chiefs, the EFSF may insure bonds of troubled countries with guarantees of between 20 percent and 30 percent of each issue to be determined in light of market circumstances, a draft shows.

Euro Bonds

Schaeuble again ruled out joint euro-area bonds or deploying the European Central Bank to fight the crisis, saying such a debate is conducted in “those countries that have to sort out their budget problems and chose to misunderstand that they have to make more efforts.”

“We must together set up institutions that secure trust in the euro,” he said. “Everything that detracts from that is damaging.”

Schaeuble’s comments clash with French Budget Minister Valerie Pecresse, who suggested that more help from the ECB may be forthcoming if euro countries implement tougher budget rules.

“Countries need to make a complete commitment to cutting their debt levels and increasing budgetary convergence,” Pecresse said yesterday on France’s Canal Plus television. “Then European institutions will be able to play their full role. That goes for the commission, the council and also for the ECB.”

Overhauling Treaties

Pecresse, who is also a spokeswoman for the French government, said that fellow administrations are working on “re-making the European treaties,” with the aim of creating “new governance for the euro zone, a real regulator and real sanctions to bolster confidence” in the euro.

The euro rose today amid optimism that Europeans will step up efforts to end the crisis, advancing 0.5 percent to $1.3309 as of 11:04 a.m. in Tokyo. A report by La Stampa newspaper that the International Monetary Fund is preparing aid of as much as 600 billion euros for Italy in case that nation’s funding woes worsen appeared “wide of the mark,” said Marc Chandler, chief currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co.

“The IMF simply does not have the resources,” New York- based Chandler wrote in a note to clients. The Washington-based lender had committed $282 billion in loans as of mid-August, compared with member quotas of $383 billion and additional pledged or committed resources of about $600 billion, IMF data show.

Fast Track

Asked about newspaper reports that German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy are planning a fast- track stability pact to stem the crisis, Schaeuble said the government was “making efforts to convince the European Parliament that we can make such a treaty change without summoning to a convention” of representatives from each EU country to deliberate the matter.

“We need only change so-called protocol 14 of the Lisbon Treaty -- that is for the members of the single currency to create their own stability union,” Schaeuble said. “We must concentrate on that.”

Germany and France would start a coalition of euro-zone members that would commit to greater fiscal discipline without waiting to change EU treaties, German newspaper Welt am Sonntag reported at the weekend. The project, similar in form to the Schengen agreement that regulates passport-free cross-border travel, may be announced this week, the newspaper said, citing unidentified people close to the government.

ECB Role

The deal, which could be implemented by the start of 2012, would also expect the ECB to take a stronger role as the euro- area’s crisis-fighter, Welt am Sonntag said.

Merkel and Sarkozy agreed on Nov. 24 to stop discussing the ECB’s role in tackling the two-year-old debt crisis. Sarkozy, Merkel and Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti met in Strasbourg that day and agreed they would amend treaties to impose greater fiscal discipline on countries sharing the euro.

EU President Herman van Rompuy has been tasked with presenting EU leaders with proposals for treaty changes at their next summit in Brussels on Dec. 9, a spokeswoman for Merkel’s government said yesterday.

“We’re confident that the ECB will find the right way to protect stability of the euro zone within the framework of treaties that give it independence,” Pecresse said. “Obviously it’s not tolerable to have such divergence in interest rates within the same zone for a long period.”

Bond markets in the euro area “are not functioning normally,” Bank of France Governor Christian Noyer said at a forum in Tokyo today. He told reporters afterwards that markets have forgotten Italy’s strengths, including a strong industrial base. Noyer declined to comment on possible IMF talks with Italy.

To contact the reporter on this story: Brian Parkin in Berlin at bparkin@bloomberg.net; Mark Deen in Paris at markdeen@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: James Hertling at jhertling@bloomberg.net




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China’s Li Says Property Curbs to Stay: Xinhua

By Bloomberg News - Nov 28, 2011 9:43 AM GMT+0700

Chinese Vice Premier Li Keqiang said measures introduced to control the nation’s property market are at a “critical stage” and that the government should maintain the curbs, the official Xinhua News Agency reported.

Li also called for increased efforts to construct and “fairly distribute” affordable housing to low-income families, Xinhua reported today. The vice premier made the remarks while visiting the city of Langfang in Hebei province on Nov. 25, where he checked on the implementation of the government’s affordable housing policies, Xinhua reported.

The government intensified property measures this year with limits on mortgages and restrictions on home purchases in about 40 cities, as well as aiming to build 10 million affordable housing units to boost supply. Some brokerages including Barclays Capital Research and asset managers such as CBRE Global Investors had earlier forecast that falling home prices in cities including Beijing and Shanghai may prompt the government to roll back some of its tightening measures.

“We expect the government to continue its current purchase and credit restrictions instead of easing them soon, which should constrain property market activity in coming months,” UBS AG analysts Tao Wang and Harrison Hu said in a report dated Nov. 25, predicting a 10 percent decline in housing starts for the next 12 months. “The most important factor underlying this outlook is policy.”

UBS expects property prices to drop by 10 percent to 15 percent in first-tier cities next year, and by 5 percent to 10 percent in other cities, they wrote.

‘Firmly’ Maintaining Curbs

Premier Wen Jiabao said at the end of last month that the government would “firmly” maintain restrictions on real estate. Li is in line to replace Wen as premier next year, according to analysts including Willy Wo-Lap Lam, an adjunct professor of Chinese history at the Chinese University of Hong Kong.

China’s October home prices dropped in 33 of 70 cities monitored by the government, the worst performance this year.

The government is unlikely to reverse its monetary policy in the short term or ease curbs on the property market even as economic growth slows, according to Citic Securities Co. The central bank increased interest rates three times and the reserves ratio six times this year.

House prices in the more affluent tier-one and tier-two cities are likely to fall by 10 percent to 30 percent next year, exceeding losses in other cities as higher property prices limit affordability, Daiwa Capital Markets analysts Danny Bao, Yunye Lu and Alex Ye said in a report received today. Values may decline 5 percent to 15 percent in the less affluent tier-three and tier-four cities as more homes are owner-occupied, they said.

Price Cuts

Property developers (SHPROP) have started cutting prices by 20 percent to 30 percent on some projects in coastal cities such as Shanghai, the brokerage said. It also forecast a 10 percent decline in sales volume next year, predicting “lackluster” demand in the tier-one and tier-two markets.

“The government’s public housing initiatives will squeeze the market shares of the major and private developers,” the analysts said. “We expect the government’s policy to result in a soft landing for the housing markets in the major coastal tier-1 and tier-2 cities in order to avoid the potential erosion of GDP growth.”

China’s property prices may post further declines next year with the value of some real estate projects dropping as much as 40 percent, Financial News reported today, citing Yang Hongxu, a researcher at E-House China R&D Institute. Liquidity and inventory pressure faced by developers, along with government curbs, will depress prices, the newspaper said, citing Yang.

Most Chinese builders face payment delays from developers as the pace of construction slows from three months earlier amid tighter credit and a slowdown in home sales, Credit Suisse Group AG said in a report last week.

Agile Property Holdings Ltd. (3383), the Chinese developer in which JPMorgan Chase & Co. owns a stake, also said last week it will stop buying land until at least February and is slowing construction at some projects as sales dwindle amid the government’s property curbs.

--John Liu in Beijing, with assistance from Richard Frost in Hong Kong, Zhang Shidong in Shanghai and Weiyi Lim in Singapore. Editors: Linus Chua, Andreea Papuc

To contact Bloomberg News staff on this story: John Liu in Beijing at jliu42@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Andreea Papuc at apapuc1@bloomberg.net





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Secret Fed Loans Gave Banks Undisclosed $13B

By Bob Ivry, Bradley Keoun and Phil Kuntz - Nov 28, 2011 7:01 AM GMT+0700
Bloomberg Markets Magazine

The Federal Reserve and the big banks fought for more than two years to keep details of the largest bailout in U.S. history a secret. Now, the rest of the world can see what it was missing.

The Fed didn’t tell anyone which banks were in trouble so deep they required a combined $1.2 trillion on Dec. 5, 2008, their single neediest day. Bankers didn’t mention that they took tens of billions of dollars in emergency loans at the same time they were assuring investors their firms were healthy. And no one calculated until now that banks reaped an estimated $13 billion of income by taking advantage of the Fed’s below-market rates, Bloomberg Markets magazine reports in its January issue.

Saved by the bailout, bankers lobbied against government regulations, a job made easier by the Fed, which never disclosed the details of the rescue to lawmakers even as Congress doled out more money and debated new rules aimed at preventing the next collapse.

A fresh narrative of the financial crisis of 2007 to 2009 emerges from 29,000 pages of Fed documents obtained under the Freedom of Information Act and central bank records of more than 21,000 transactions. While Fed officials say that almost all of the loans were repaid and there have been no losses, details suggest taxpayers paid a price beyond dollars as the secret funding helped preserve a broken status quo and enabled the biggest banks to grow even bigger.

‘Change Their Votes’

“When you see the dollars the banks got, it’s hard to make the case these were successful institutions,” says Sherrod Brown, a Democratic Senator from Ohio who in 2010 introduced an unsuccessful bill to limit bank size. “This is an issue that can unite the Tea Party and Occupy Wall Street. There are lawmakers in both parties who would change their votes now.”

The size of the bailout came to light after Bloomberg LP, the parent of Bloomberg News, won a court case against the Fed and a group of the biggest U.S. banks called Clearing House Association LLC to force lending details into the open.

The Fed, headed by Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, argued that revealing borrower details would create a stigma -- investors and counterparties would shun firms that used the central bank as lender of last resort -- and that needy institutions would be reluctant to borrow in the next crisis. Clearing House Association fought Bloomberg’s lawsuit up to the U.S. Supreme Court, which declined to hear the banks’ appeal in March 2011.

$7.77 Trillion

The amount of money the central bank parceled out was surprising even to Gary H. Stern, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis from 1985 to 2009, who says he “wasn’t aware of the magnitude.” It dwarfed the Treasury Department’s better-known $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP. Add up guarantees and lending limits, and the Fed had committed $7.77 trillion as of March 2009 to rescuing the financial system, more than half the value of everything produced in the U.S. that year.

“TARP at least had some strings attached,” says Brad Miller, a North Carolina Democrat on the House Financial Services Committee, referring to the program’s executive-pay ceiling. “With the Fed programs, there was nothing.”

Bankers didn’t disclose the extent of their borrowing. On Nov. 26, 2008, then-Bank of America (BAC) Corp. Chief Executive Officer Kenneth D. Lewis wrote to shareholders that he headed “one of the strongest and most stable major banks in the world.” He didn’t say that his Charlotte, North Carolina-based firm owed the central bank $86 billion that day.

‘Motivate Others’

JPMorgan Chase & Co. CEO Jamie Dimon told shareholders in a March 26, 2010, letter that his bank used the Fed’s Term Auction Facility “at the request of the Federal Reserve to help motivate others to use the system.” He didn’t say that the New York-based bank’s total TAF borrowings were almost twice its cash holdings or that its peak borrowing of $48 billion on Feb. 26, 2009, came more than a year after the program’s creation.

Howard Opinsky, a spokesman for JPMorgan (JPM), declined to comment about Dimon’s statement or the company’s Fed borrowings. Jerry Dubrowski, a spokesman for Bank of America, also declined to comment.

The Fed has been lending money to banks through its so- called discount window since just after its founding in 1913. Starting in August 2007, when confidence in banks began to wane, it created a variety of ways to bolster the financial system with cash or easily traded securities. By the end of 2008, the central bank had established or expanded 11 lending facilities catering to banks, securities firms and corporations that couldn’t get short-term loans from their usual sources.

‘Core Function’

“Supporting financial-market stability in times of extreme market stress is a core function of central banks,” says William B. English, director of the Fed’s Division of Monetary Affairs. “Our lending programs served to prevent a collapse of the financial system and to keep credit flowing to American families and businesses.”

The Fed has said that all loans were backed by appropriate collateral. That the central bank didn’t lose money should “lead to praise of the Fed, that they took this extraordinary step and they got it right,” says Phillip Swagel, a former assistant Treasury secretary under Henry M. Paulson and now a professor of international economic policy at the University of Maryland.

The Fed initially released lending data in aggregate form only. Information on which banks borrowed, when, how much and at what interest rate was kept from public view.

The secrecy extended even to members of President George W. Bush’s administration who managed TARP. Top aides to Paulson weren’t privy to Fed lending details during the creation of the program that provided crisis funding to more than 700 banks, say two former senior Treasury officials who requested anonymity because they weren’t authorized to speak.

Big Six

The Treasury Department relied on the recommendations of the Fed to decide which banks were healthy enough to get TARP money and how much, the former officials say. The six biggest U.S. banks, which received $160 billion of TARP funds, borrowed as much as $460 billion from the Fed, measured by peak daily debt calculated by Bloomberg using data obtained from the central bank. Paulson didn’t respond to a request for comment.

The six -- JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup Inc. (C), Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC), Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) and Morgan Stanley -- accounted for 63 percent of the average daily debt to the Fed by all publicly traded U.S. banks, money managers and investment- services firms, the data show. By comparison, they had about half of the industry’s assets before the bailout, which lasted from August 2007 through April 2010. The daily debt figure excludes cash that banks passed along to money-market funds.

Bank Supervision

While the emergency response prevented financial collapse, the Fed shouldn’t have allowed conditions to get to that point, says Joshua Rosner, a banking analyst with Graham Fisher & Co. in New York who predicted problems from lax mortgage underwriting as far back as 2001. The Fed, the primary supervisor for large financial companies, should have been more vigilant as the housing bubble formed, and the scale of its lending shows the “supervision of the banks prior to the crisis was far worse than we had imagined,” Rosner says.

Bernanke in an April 2009 speech said that the Fed provided emergency loans only to “sound institutions,” even though its internal assessments described at least one of the biggest borrowers, Citigroup, as “marginal.”

On Jan. 14, 2009, six days before the company’s central bank loans peaked, the New York Fed gave CEO Vikram Pandit a report declaring Citigroup’s financial strength to be “superficial,” bolstered largely by its $45 billion of Treasury funds. The document was released in early 2011 by the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission, a panel empowered by Congress to probe the causes of the crisis.

‘Need Transparency’

Andrea Priest, a spokeswoman for the New York Fed, declined to comment, as did Jon Diat, a spokesman for Citigroup.

“I believe that the Fed should have independence in conducting highly technical monetary policy, but when they are putting taxpayer resources at risk, we need transparency and accountability,” says Alabama Senator Richard Shelby, the top Republican on the Senate Banking Committee.

Judd Gregg, a former New Hampshire senator who was a lead Republican negotiator on TARP, and Barney Frank, a Massachusetts Democrat who chaired the House Financial Services Committee, both say they were kept in the dark.

“We didn’t know the specifics,” says Gregg, who’s now an adviser to Goldman Sachs.

“We were aware emergency efforts were going on,” Frank says. “We didn’t know the specifics.”

Disclose Lending

Frank co-sponsored the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, billed as a fix for financial-industry excesses. Congress debated that legislation in 2010 without a full understanding of how deeply the banks had depended on the Fed for survival.

It would have been “totally appropriate” to disclose the lending data by mid-2009, says David Jones, a former economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York who has written four books about the central bank.

“The Fed is the second-most-important appointed body in the U.S., next to the Supreme Court, and we’re dealing with a democracy,” Jones says. “Our representatives in Congress deserve to have this kind of information so they can oversee the Fed.”

The Dodd-Frank law required the Fed to release details of some emergency-lending programs in December 2010. It also mandated disclosure of discount-window borrowers after a two- year lag.

Protecting TARP

TARP and the Fed lending programs went “hand in hand,” says Sherrill Shaffer, a banking professor at the University of Wyoming in Laramie and a former chief economist at the New York Fed. While the TARP money helped insulate the central bank from losses, the Fed’s willingness to supply seemingly unlimited financing to the banks assured they wouldn’t collapse, protecting the Treasury’s TARP investments, he says.

“Even though the Treasury was in the headlines, the Fed was really behind the scenes engineering it,” Shaffer says.

Congress, at the urging of Bernanke and Paulson, created TARP in October 2008 after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. made it difficult for financial institutions to get loans. Bank of America and New York-based Citigroup each received $45 billion from TARP. At the time, both were tapping the Fed. Citigroup hit its peak borrowing of $99.5 billion in January 2009, while Bank of America topped out in February 2009 at $91.4 billion.

No Clue

Lawmakers knew none of this.

They had no clue that one bank, New York-based Morgan Stanley (MS), took $107 billion in Fed loans in September 2008, enough to pay off one-tenth of the country’s delinquent mortgages. The firm’s peak borrowing occurred the same day Congress rejected the proposed TARP bill, triggering the biggest point drop ever in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. (INDU) The bill later passed, and Morgan Stanley got $10 billion of TARP funds, though Paulson said only “healthy institutions” were eligible.

Mark Lake, a spokesman for Morgan Stanley, declined to comment, as did spokesmen for Citigroup and Goldman Sachs.

Had lawmakers known, it “could have changed the whole approach to reform legislation,” says Ted Kaufman, a former Democratic Senator from Delaware who, with Brown, introduced the bill to limit bank size.

Moral Hazard

Kaufman says some banks are so big that their failure could trigger a chain reaction in the financial system. The cost of borrowing for so-called too-big-to-fail banks is lower than that of smaller firms because lenders believe the government won’t let them go under. The perceived safety net creates what economists call moral hazard -- the belief that bankers will take greater risks because they’ll enjoy any profits while shifting losses to taxpayers.

If Congress had been aware of the extent of the Fed rescue, Kaufman says, he would have been able to line up more support for breaking up the biggest banks.

Byron L. Dorgan, a former Democratic senator from North Dakota, says the knowledge might have helped pass legislation to reinstate the Glass-Steagall Act, which for most of the last century separated customer deposits from the riskier practices of investment banking.

“Had people known about the hundreds of billions in loans to the biggest financial institutions, they would have demanded Congress take much more courageous actions to stop the practices that caused this near financial collapse,” says Dorgan, who retired in January.

Getting Bigger

Instead, the Fed and its secret financing helped America’s biggest financial firms get bigger and go on to pay employees as much as they did at the height of the housing bubble.

Total assets held by the six biggest U.S. banks increased 39 percent to $9.5 trillion on Sept. 30, 2011, from $6.8 trillion on the same day in 2006, according to Fed data.

For so few banks to hold so many assets is “un-American,” says Richard W. Fisher, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. “All of these gargantuan institutions are too big to regulate. I’m in favor of breaking them up and slimming them down.”

Employees at the six biggest banks made twice the average for all U.S. workers in 2010, based on Bureau of Labor Statistics hourly compensation cost data. The banks spent $146.3 billion on compensation in 2010, or an average of $126,342 per worker, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s up almost 20 percent from five years earlier compared with less than 15 percent for the average worker. Average pay at the banks in 2010 was about the same as in 2007, before the bailouts.

‘Wanted to Pretend’

“The pay levels came back so fast at some of these firms that it appeared they really wanted to pretend they hadn’t been bailed out,” says Anil Kashyap, a former Fed economist who’s now a professor of economics at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. “They shouldn’t be surprised that a lot of people find some of the stuff that happened totally outrageous.”

Bank of America took over Merrill Lynch & Co. at the urging of then-Treasury Secretary Paulson after buying the biggest U.S. home lender, Countrywide Financial Corp. When the Merrill Lynch purchase was announced on Sept. 15, 2008, Bank of America had $14.4 billion in emergency Fed loans and Merrill Lynch had $8.1 billion. By the end of the month, Bank of America’s loans had reached $25 billion and Merrill Lynch’s had exceeded $60 billion, helping both firms keep the deal on track.

Prevent Collapse

Wells Fargo bought Wachovia Corp., the fourth-largest U.S. bank by deposits before the 2008 acquisition. Because depositors were pulling their money from Wachovia, the Fed channeled $50 billion in secret loans to the Charlotte, North Carolina-based bank through two emergency-financing programs to prevent collapse before Wells Fargo could complete the purchase.

“These programs proved to be very successful at providing financial markets the additional liquidity and confidence they needed at a time of unprecedented uncertainty,” says Ancel Martinez, a spokesman for Wells Fargo.

JPMorgan absorbed the country’s largest savings and loan, Seattle-based Washington Mutual Inc., and investment bank Bear Stearns Cos. The New York Fed, then headed by Timothy F. Geithner, who’s now Treasury secretary, helped JPMorgan complete the Bear Stearns deal by providing $29 billion of financing, which was disclosed at the time. The Fed also supplied Bear Stearns with $30 billion of secret loans to keep the company from failing before the acquisition closed, central bank data show. The loans were made through a program set up to provide emergency funding to brokerage firms.

‘Regulatory Discretion’

“Some might claim that the Fed was picking winners and losers, but what the Fed was doing was exercising its professional regulatory discretion,” says John Dearie, a former speechwriter at the New York Fed who’s now executive vice president for policy at the Financial Services Forum, a Washington-based group consisting of the CEOs of 20 of the world’s biggest financial firms. “The Fed clearly felt it had what it needed within the requirements of the law to continue to lend to Bear and Wachovia.”

The bill introduced by Brown and Kaufman in April 2010 would have mandated shrinking the six largest firms.

“When a few banks have advantages, the little guys get squeezed,” Brown says. “That, to me, is not what capitalism should be.”

Kaufman says he’s passionate about curbing too-big-to-fail banks because he fears another crisis.

‘Can We Survive?’

“The amount of pain that people, through no fault of their own, had to endure -- and the prospect of putting them through it again -- is appalling,” Kaufman says. “The public has no more appetite for bailouts. What would happen tomorrow if one of these big banks got in trouble? Can we survive that?”

Lobbying expenditures by the six banks that would have been affected by the legislation rose to $29.4 million in 2010 compared with $22.1 million in 2006, the last full year before credit markets seized up -- a gain of 33 percent, according to OpenSecrets.org, a research group that tracks money in U.S. politics. Lobbying by the American Bankers Association, a trade organization, increased at about the same rate, OpenSecrets.org reported.

Lobbyists argued the virtues of bigger banks. They’re more stable, better able to serve large companies and more competitive internationally, and breaking them up would cost jobs and cause “long-term damage to the U.S. economy,” according to a Nov. 13, 2009, letter to members of Congress from the FSF.

The group’s website cites Nobel Prize-winning economist Oliver E. Williamson, a professor emeritus at the University of California, Berkeley, for demonstrating the greater efficiency of large companies.

‘Serious Burden’

In an interview, Williamson says that the organization took his research out of context and that efficiency is only one factor in deciding whether to preserve too-big-to-fail banks.

“The banks that were too big got even bigger, and the problems that we had to begin with are magnified in the process,” Williamson says. “The big banks have incentives to take risks they wouldn’t take if they didn’t have government support. It’s a serious burden on the rest of the economy.”

Dearie says his group didn’t mean to imply that Williamson endorsed big banks.

Top officials in President Barack Obama’s administration sided with the FSF in arguing against legislative curbs on the size of banks.

Geithner, Kaufman

On May 4, 2010, Geithner visited Kaufman in his Capitol Hill office. As president of the New York Fed in 2007 and 2008, Geithner helped design and run the central bank’s lending programs. The New York Fed supervised four of the six biggest U.S. banks and, during the credit crunch, put together a daily confidential report on Wall Street’s financial condition. Geithner was copied on these reports, based on a sampling of e- mails released by the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission.

At the meeting with Kaufman, Geithner argued that the issue of limiting bank size was too complex for Congress and that people who know the markets should handle these decisions, Kaufman says. According to Kaufman, Geithner said he preferred that bank supervisors from around the world, meeting in Basel, Switzerland, make rules increasing the amount of money banks need to hold in reserve. Passing laws in the U.S. would undercut his efforts in Basel, Geithner said, according to Kaufman.

Anthony Coley, a spokesman for Geithner, declined to comment.

‘Punishing Success’

Lobbyists for the big banks made the winning case that forcing them to break up was “punishing success,” Brown says. Now that they can see how much the banks were borrowing from the Fed, senators might think differently, he says.

The Fed supported curbing too-big-to-fail banks, including giving regulators the power to close large financial firms and implementing tougher supervision for big banks, says Fed General Counsel Scott G. Alvarez. The Fed didn’t take a position on whether large banks should be dismantled before they get into trouble.

Dodd-Frank does provide a mechanism for regulators to break up the biggest banks. It established the Financial Stability Oversight Council that could order teetering banks to shut down in an orderly way. The council is headed by Geithner.

“Dodd-Frank does not solve the problem of too big to fail,” says Shelby, the Alabama Republican. “Moral hazard and taxpayer exposure still very much exist.”

Below Market

Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington, says banks “were either in bad shape or taking advantage of the Fed giving them a good deal. The former contradicts their public statements. The latter -- getting loans at below-market rates during a financial crisis -- is quite a gift.”

The Fed says it typically makes emergency loans more expensive than those available in the marketplace to discourage banks from abusing the privilege. During the crisis, Fed loans were among the cheapest around, with funding available for as low as 0.01 percent in December 2008, according to data from the central bank and money-market rates tracked by Bloomberg.

The Fed funds also benefited firms by allowing them to avoid selling assets to pay investors and depositors who pulled their money. So the assets stayed on the banks’ books, earning interest.

Banks report the difference between what they earn on loans and investments and their borrowing expenses. The figure, known as net interest margin, provides a clue to how much profit the firms turned on their Fed loans, the costs of which were included in those expenses. To calculate how much banks stood to make, Bloomberg multiplied their tax-adjusted net interest margins by their average Fed debt during reporting periods in which they took emergency loans.

Added Income

The 190 firms for which data were available would have produced income of $13 billion, assuming all of the bailout funds were invested at the margins reported, the data show.

The six biggest U.S. banks’ share of the estimated subsidy was $4.8 billion, or 23 percent of their combined net income during the time they were borrowing from the Fed. Citigroup would have taken in the most, with $1.8 billion.

“The net interest margin is an effective way of getting at the benefits that these large banks received from the Fed,” says Gerald A. Hanweck, a former Fed economist who’s now a finance professor at George Mason University in Fairfax, Virginia.

While the method isn’t perfect, it’s impossible to state the banks’ exact profits or savings from their Fed loans because the numbers aren’t disclosed and there isn’t enough publicly available data to figure it out.

Opinsky, the JPMorgan spokesman, says he doesn’t think the calculation is fair because “in all likelihood, such funds were likely invested in very short-term investments,” which typically bring lower returns.

Standing Access

Even without tapping the Fed, the banks get a subsidy by having standing access to the central bank’s money, says Viral Acharya, a New York University economics professor who has worked as an academic adviser to the New York Fed.

“Banks don’t give lines of credit to corporations for free,” he says. “Why should all these government guarantees and liquidity facilities be for free?”

In the September 2008 meeting at which Paulson and Bernanke briefed lawmakers on the need for TARP, Bernanke said that if nothing was done, “unemployment would rise -- to 8 or 9 percent from the prevailing 6.1 percent,” Paulson wrote in “On the Brink” (Business Plus, 2010).

Occupy Wall Street

The U.S. jobless rate hasn’t dipped below 8.8 percent since March 2009, 3.6 million homes have been foreclosed since August 2007, according to data provider RealtyTrac Inc., and police have clashed with Occupy Wall Street protesters, who say government policies favor the wealthiest citizens, in New York, Boston, Seattle and Oakland, California.

The Tea Party, which supports a more limited role for government, has its roots in anger over the Wall Street bailouts, says Neil M. Barofsky, former TARP special inspector general and a Bloomberg Television contributing editor.

“The lack of transparency is not just frustrating; it really blocked accountability,” Barofsky says. “When people don’t know the details, they fill in the blanks. They believe in conspiracies.”

In the end, Geithner had his way. The Brown-Kaufman proposal to limit the size of banks was defeated, 60 to 31. Bank supervisors meeting in Switzerland did mandate minimum reserves that institutions will have to hold, with higher levels for the world’s largest banks, including the six biggest in the U.S. Those rules can be changed by individual countries.

They take full effect in 2019.

Meanwhile, Kaufman says, “we’re absolutely, totally, 100 percent not prepared for another financial crisis.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Bob Ivry in New York at bivry@bloomberg.net; Bradley Keoun in New York at bkeoun@bloomberg.net; Phil Kuntz in New York at pkuntz1@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Gary Putka at gputka@bloomberg.net; David Scheer at dscheer@bloomberg.net.




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