Economic Calendar

Monday, January 16, 2012

Samsung Electronics May Issue First Overseas Bond Since 1997

By Jun Yang and Taejin Park - Jan 16, 2012 8:11 AM GMT+0700

Samsung Electronics Co. (005930), the world’s largest maker of computer memory chips, plans to issue its first overseas bonds since 1997 to expand its Texas production of processors used in mobile devices, including Apple Inc. (AAPL)’s iPhone.

The company has sent requests for proposals to banks to borrow as much as $1 billion to expand an Austin, Texas, factory, James Chung, a Seoul-based spokesman for Samsung, said by telephone today, confirming a report in the Korea Economic Daily yesterday. The bonds will be issued by Samsung’s U.S. unit and may have maturities of five years, Chung said.

Samsung, the exclusive manufacturer of Apple-designed chips powering the iPhone and iPad tablet computer, in October started maximizing the production of chips for mobile-phone processors.

The company’s long-term credit is rated “A1” by Moody’s Investors Service with a “stable” outlook, the same level as South Korea’s sovereign rating.

To contact the reporters on this story: Jun Yang in Seoul at jyang180@bloomberg.net; Taejin Park in Seoul at tpark31@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Michael Tighe at mtighe4@bloomberg.net




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Iran Receives Letter From U.S. on Strait of Hormuz, May Respond, IRNA Says

By Robert Tuttle - Jan 16, 2012 1:26 AM GMT+0700

Iran acknowledged receipt of a letter from the U.S. concerning the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway that the Mideast nation has threatened to close, the official Islamic Republic News Agency said, citing Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast.

Iran is studying the document, which was delivered by Iraqi President Jalal Talabani, and will respond if “deemed necessary,” IRNA said. Susan Rice, U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, gave a copy of the letter to Iran’s UN representative and another copy was delivered to the Iranian government by Switzerland’s ambassador to Tehran, Leu Agosti, IRNA said.

Iran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s biggest choke point for traded seaborne oil, if sanctions against purchases of its oil are imposed over its nuclear program. Western countries allege that Iran’s nuclear- development plans are aimed at building atomic weapons. Iran says they are for civilian purposes and to generate electricity.

“I’m not going to get into the details of those communications or mechanisms,” White House spokesman Tommy Vietor said in response to an e-mail. Reinforcing what White House press secretary Jay Carney told reporters Jan. 13, Vietor said messages delivered to Iran’s leaders privately “would be the same as what we’ve said publicly.”

Free Flow

The U.S. and other big oil importers “have a strong interest in the free flow of commerce and freedom of navigation in all international waterways,” Vietor said, adding that those views have been communicated to Iran.

President Barack Obama “is willing to engage constructively and seriously with Iran” about its nuclear program, but he stressed it must live up to its international obligations, Vietor said. Obama remains “committed to a diplomatic solution to this issue if Iran is willing to move in a different direction,” he said.

European Union foreign ministers will meet on Jan. 23 to consider barring purchases of oil from Iran, the second-biggest producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries after Saudi Arabia. Should the bloc approve an embargo, its 27 member states would be prohibited from concluding new oil contracts with Iran or renewing any that are due to expire, an EU diplomat with knowledge of the talks said on Jan. 13.

Iran’s OPEC Governor Mohammad-Ali Khatibi called on Arab neighbors not to support any European embargo on Iranian oil by increasing crude supplies to replace the lost Iranian output, Tehran-based newspaper Shargh reported today.

The recent visit of Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu to Tehran had nothing to do with the U.S. letter, IRNA said.

Vietor declined to comment on a report by Israel Radio that said a joint U.S.-Israel military exercise that was to be the biggest ever between the two countries has been postponed.

To contact the reporter on this story: Robert Tuttle in Doha at rtuttle@bloomberg.net Roger Runningen in Washington, at rrunningen@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Digby Lidstone at dlidstone@bloomberg.net




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Apple Is Said to Ready IPad 3 With Sharper Screen, LTE Access

By Tim Culpan, Peter Burrows and Adam Satariano -

Apple Inc. (AAPL)’s next iPad, expected to go on sale in March, will sport a high-definition screen, run a faster processor and work with next-generation wireless networks, according to three people familiar with the product.

The company’s manufacturing partners in Asia started ramping up production of the iPad 3 this month and plan to reach full volumes by February, said one of the people, who asked not to be named because the details aren’t public. The tablet will use a quad-core chip, an enhancement that lets users jump more quickly between applications, two of the people said.

Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook is counting on the new model to ward off mounting competition in a market that Apple pioneered two years ago. After its debut in 2010, the iPad emerged as the company’s second-biggest source of revenue -- after the iPhone -- and inspired rival products from Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) and Samsung (005930) Electronics Co. Apple has sold more than 40 million iPads, generating at least $25.3 billion in sales.

Natalie Kerris, a spokeswoman for Apple, said the company doesn’t comment on rumor and speculation.

The Cupertino, California-based company has been working on making the iPad compatible with a wireless standard called long- term evolution, or LTE, said one of the people. Carriers such as Verizon Wireless (VZ) and ATT Inc. (T) are rolling out LTE networks to give users faster access to data.

LTE Networks

Smartphone makers, including Samsung, Motorola Mobility Holdings Inc. (MMI) and Nokia Oyj (NOKIA), have already introduced smartphones that work on the faster networks. Apple is bringing LTE to the iPad before the iPhone because the tablet has a bigger battery and can better support the power requirements of the newer technology, said one of the people.

The new display is capable of greater resolution than the current iPad, with more pixels on its screen than some high- definition televisions, the person said. The pixels are small enough to make the images look like printed material, according to the person. Videos begin playing almost instantly because of the additional graphics processing, the person said.

The new iPad is being assembled by Apple’s main manufacturing partner, Foxconn Technology Group. Like most technology companies, Apple contracts with companies in Asia for labor to assemble its devices. Foxconn, which also builds the iPhone and other Apple products, gets about 22 percent of its sales from Apple, according to supply-chain data compiled by Bloomberg.

Boosting Production

Mass production began at the start of this month, with factories running 24 hours a day in China, one of the people said. Manufacturing will halt over China’s Lunar New Year holiday this month and then ramp back up to a peak in February, the person said.

The introduction of the new iPad will be Apple’s first major hardware release since the death of company co-founder Steve Jobs in October. The company is hosting an education event focused on electronic textbooks next week that won’t include any hardware introductions, said a person familiar with the matter.

Apple, the world’s largest technology company by market value, was little changed yesterday in U.S. trading at $419.81. The stock rose 26 percent in 2011, marking its third straight year of gains.

To contact the reporters on this story: Tim Culpan in Taipei at tculpan1@bloomberg.net; Peter Burrows in San Francisco at pburrows@bloomberg.net; Adam Satariano in San Francisco at asatariano1@bloomberg.net;

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Michael Tighe at mtighe4@bloomberg.net; Tom Giles at tgiles5@bloomberg.net




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Cruise Ship Captain Arrested as Death Toll Reaches 5

By Marco Bertacche and Chiara Vasarri - Jan 16, 2012 8:28 AM GMT+0700
Enlarge image Cruise Ship Costa Concordia Runs Aground Off Giglio

The cruise ship Costa Concordia lies stricken off the shore of the island of Giglio, in Giglio Porto, Italy on Jan. 14, 2012.Photographer: Laura Lezza/Getty Images


The captain of a Carnival Corp. (CCL) cruise liner may have made “very serious judgment mistakes” before and after his ship capsized off Italy’s Tuscan coast, killing at least 5 people, the ship’s operator said.

Costa Crociere, the Carnival line that runs the ship, said “it seems” Captain Francesco Schettino sailed too close to the island of Giglio and didn’t follow company emergency procedures, according to a statement in Italian yesterday. Schettino was arrested and accused of manslaughter, abandoning the ship and causing the wreck late on Jan. 13.

Rescuers are still searching for as many as 17 people missing from the Costa Concordia. About 60 people were injured after the ship carrying more than 4,000 passengers and crew hit submerged rocks in the Tyrrhenian Sea. The ship’s insurers may face total costs of about 405 million euros ($512 million), said one person with knowledge of the policies.

“In terms of physical damage, this will be one of biggest claims around,” said Eamonn Flanagan, an insurance analyst at Shore Capital Group Ltd. in Liverpool, England.

Two bodies were found onboard yesterday, said Stefano Giannelli, a fire department spokesman, adding to the three known to have perished. Teams found two South Korean passengers in a ship cabin at 3 a.m. local time yesterday and saved a crew member on the third deck, Giannelli said.

About 60 firefighters are deployed in the search operation that will continue “all night long,” Giannelli said. Rescuers have searched one third of the ship, said. Four tourists -- two French, one Italian and one from Spain -- and a Peruvian crewmember are known to have perished, the Civil Protection unit in Grosseto said in an e-mail statement.

Like ‘Titanic’

Rescuers evacuated passengers and crew to the nearest mainland port, Santo Stefano, Italy’s Civil Protection Agency said on its website. Survivors spoke of the panic when the ship began listing, with some likening the events to those in the film “Titanic.”

Captain Schettino is being detained for allegedly abandoning the ship “since we know he was in the harbor about midnight,” Francesco Verusio, the chief prosecutor in the city of Grosseto, said in an interview. The ship’s first officer is also being probed, he said. Dozens of people have been questioned so far, the prosecutor said.

Cruise Line President

Gianni Onorato, general manager of the Costa Crociere line, said the ship had embarked about 7 p.m. from Civitavecchia near Rome on a trip that was scheduled to include stops at ports in France and Spain. The vessel hit the rocks Schettino, after assessing the damage, decided to secure the ship and gave the evacuation order, Onorato told news channel SkyTG24 in an interview. A Costa Crociere spokesman confirmed the comments.

The number of missing may be as low as 15, including six crewmembers, according to the Tuscany Region Governor Enrico Rossi. Among them are an 84-year-old Italian and a 5-year-old child, la Repubblica said on its website. The number could be as high as 17, Ansa said, citing Grosseto Province President Leonardo Marras. The U.S. Embassy in Italy said two of the 120 U.S. passengers are still unaccounted for, according to a statement posted on Twitter yesterday.

“This is a terrible tragedy and we are deeply saddened,” Carnival said a Jan. 14 statement. Carnival, based in Miami, is the world’s largest cruise line owner, with brands such as Cunard, Princess Cruises and Costa.

‘Significant’ Error

Costa Crociere released a statement first in Italian and later in English. “While the investigation is ongoing, preliminary indications are that there may have been significant human error on the part of the ship’s master,” according to the English version. “The route of the vessel appears to have been too close to the shore, and in handling the emergency the captain appears not to have followed standard Costa procedures.”

The ship probably was on a wrong route, the prosecutor said. The so-called black box was retrieved, Verusio said. Investigators have determined the ship was only about 150 meters (492 feet) from the coast when it hit the rocks, Ansa said.

Captain Schettino said he was the last one to leave the ship, according to an interview broadcast by TGCOM24 before his arrest. The rocks weren’t identified on the navigation maps, Schettino said. The ship was at least 300 meters from the island when it hit the rocks, he said.

Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera said the captain may have steered the boat closer to the coast to allow passengers a better view of the island’s lights.

Divers Arrive

A scuba-diving unit arrived from Genoa yesterday to search for survivors who may be inside the ship, Lieutenant Colonel Italo Spalvieri of the Livorno Air-Naval Rescue unit said in a telephone interview.

Television images broadcast showed the Costa lying on its starboard side, a portion of the ship underwater and its orange smokestack close to the waterline. The ship was built in 2006 and has 1,500 cabins, according to Costa Crociere’s website. The vessel also had a docking accident at Palermo’s harbor in 2008 because of strong winds, newspaper Il Sole 24 Ore reported.

The ship hit the rocks about 9:45 p.m. as dinner was being served, sending plates and glasses crashing, Italian media reported. Passengers said the situation on board was reminiscent of the film “Titanic,” as the vessel tilted, electrical power was lost and people rushed to find lifeboats. Several passengers interviewed by Italian television channels including SkyTG24 said they were initially told by crew that there only was an electrical problem and it wasn’t an emergency.

Abandon Ship

Cabin steward Deodato Ordona told the British Broadcasting Corp. there was a “roaring sound” before the ship began to shift. He said the vessel leaned to the left and then the right before the captain announced an order to abandon ship.

There were 3,200 passengers on the ship, including 1,000 Italians, 500 Germans, 160 French and 250 from North America, Costa Crociere said. Emergency procedures began immediately and were impeded by the ship’s listing, Costa Crociere said in a statement.

The first coast guard boats arrived within 10 minutes of the accident, Air-Naval Rescue Lieutenant Colonel Spalvieri said by phone. The vessel is carrying a large amount of fuel and Costa Crociere has been ordered to start procedures to remove it, according to Cosimo Nicastro, a spokesman for the Italian Coast Guard. The Giglio island is part of the biggest marine park in Europe. Giglio Mayor Sergio Ortelli said in an e-mailed statement that there’s no risk of an oil spill.

Fabio Costa, a shop worker on the boat, said it took the crew a long time to launch the lifeboats because the vessel had listed so much.

Champagne Omen

The vessel set sail Jan. 13 and its itinerary included calls at the Mediterranean ports of Savona, Marseille, Barcelona, Palma de Mallorca, Cagliari and Palermo.

Italian newspapers said that when the vessel was christened in 2006 the champagne bottle didn’t break against the side of the ship, supposedly an omen of bad luck.

Carnival owns 100 ships and has 10 on order. Its brands also include Carnival, Holland America Line, Seabourn, AIDA Cruises, Ibero Cruises and P&O Cruises. The Costa cruise line has 15 ships and sails worldwide.

The Costa Concordia was insured by companies including Assicurazioni Generali SpA, RSA Insurance Group Plc (RSA) and XL Group Plc (XL), said three people with knowledge of the policies. The three are among several insurers facing total costs of about 405 million euros, said one of the people, who declined to be identified because policy terms are confidential.

To contact the reporters on this story: Marco Bertacche in Milan at mbertacche@bloomberg.net; Chiara Vasarri in Milan at cvasarri@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Jerrold Colten at jcolten@bloomberg.net





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Euro Falls After S&P Strips France of AAA, Reduces Eight Others’ Ratings

By Candice Zachariahs and Masaki Kondo - Jan 16, 2012 8:41 AM GMT+0700

Jan. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Fabienne Keller, vice president of the French senate's finance commission and a member of the UMP party, talks about Standard & Poor’s decision to strip the country of its AAA credit rating for the first time. Keller speaks from Paris with Susan Li on Bloomberg Television's "First Up." (Source: Bloomberg)

Jan. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Veronique de Rugy, a senior research fellow at George Mason University's Mercatus Center in Arlington, talks about European credit ratings and the outlook for the region's debt crisis. The euro weakened for a second day, reaching an 11-year low versus the yen, after Standard & Poor’s stripped France of its top credit rating and cut eight other euro-zone nations. De Rugy speaks with Susan Li on Bloomberg Television's "First Up."(Source: Bloomberg)


The euro weakened for a second day, touching an 11-year low versus the yen, after Standard & Poor’s stripped France of its top credit rating and cut eight other euro-zone nations.

The shared currency extended a six-week-long slide against the greenback before a series of debt auctions this week by European nations begins with France’s bill sale today. Greece may resume talks with creditor banks after failing to agree on terms of a debt-swap deal last week. The yen and dollar strengthened against most major peers as concern that Europe’s financial turmoil will intensify boosted demand for safety.

“Those downgrades provided another excuse for the speculative community to add to their short positions in euro,” said Mike Jones, a currency strategist at Bank of New Zealand Ltd. in Wellington. “We’ve got a few more European debt auctions out there as market sentiment continues to be tested.” A short position is a bet that an asset will decline in value.

The euro fell 0.4 percent to $1.2628 at 10:39 a.m. in Tokyo from the close in New York on Jan. 13 when it touched $1.2624, the least since Aug. 25, 2010. The shared currency depreciated 0.5 percent to 97.06 yen after dropping to 97.04, the lowest since December 2000. The dollar dipped 0.2 percent to 76.85 yen.

U.S. markets are closed for a public holiday today.

France will auction as much as 8.7 billion euros ($11 billion) in bills today, followed by the European Financial Stability Facility’s 1.5 billion-euro sale of bills and Greece’s offering of bills tomorrow. Spain will also offer debt tomorrow and Jan. 19, while Portugal will sell bills on Jan. 18.

‘Nervous’ Markets

“Markets are going to remain pretty nervous” until we see the results of European bond auctions this week, said Michael Turner, a fixed-income strategist in Sydney at Royal Bank of Canada. “The yen and the dollar should outperform.”

European leaders are divided and falling behind in their response to the sovereign-debt crisis, Frankfurt-based Moritz Kraemer, S&P’s managing director of European sovereign ratings, said on a Jan. 14 conference call.

The euro dropped Jan. 13 before S&P lowered the top ratings of France and Austria one level to AA+, with “negative” outlooks, while affirming the ratings of countries that included Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands. The company also downgraded Italy, Portugal, Spain and Cyprus by two steps and cut Malta, Slovakia and Slovenia by one level.

The loss by France and Austria of their AAA credit ratings may erode the firepower of the euro-region’s bailout fund that’s needed to tap markets to finance aid for Greece, Ireland and Portugal. The EFSF may lose its top rating if any of the bailout fund’s guarantors face a downgrade, S&P said last month.

‘Disorderly Default’

Talks between Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos, Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos and Charles Dallara, the managing director of the Institute of International Finance, which represents private creditors, will resume Jan. 18, according to a Greek Finance Ministry official who declined to be identified. Greece’s creditor banks last week broke off talks after failing to agree with the government about how much money investors will lose by swapping their bonds.

“We remain concerned that Greece may suffer a disorderly default in March,” Mansoor Mohi-uddin, chief foreign-exchange strategist at UBS AG in Singapore, wrote in a Jan. 14 note. “A Greek default would have a major impact on the euro as it would spread contagion to other bond markets in the euro zone.”

Short Positions

Futures traders increased bets to a record that the euro will weaken against the dollar. The difference between wagers that the shared currency would fall versus those that it would rise surged to 155,195 in the week ended Jan. 10, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed on Jan. 13.

The euro’s 14-day relative strength index against the yen was 26, below the 30-level that some traders see as a sign that an asset may be about to reverse direction. The RSI for the euro-dollar rate was at 32.

“Talks about S&P rating cuts had been around since last year,” said Toshiya Yamauchi, a senior currency analyst in Tokyo at Ueda Harlow Ltd., which provides foreign-exchange margin trading services. “Short positions on the euro have accumulated to the extent that there will be an unwinding of these positions to take profit.”

The Australian dollar weakened against 15 of its 16 major counterparts before data tomorrow that economists say will show China’s growth slowed in the fourth quarter.

Chinese gross domestic product rose 8.7 percent from a year earlier, the slowest pace since the second quarter of 2009, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

“A weaker-than-expected number would likely see a bit of pressure on the Aussie dollar,” said Jeremy Jukes, a foreign exchange dealer in Auckland at Velocity Trade Ltd., a currency brokerage. “A drop in GDP is probably not going to do the Aussie too many favors as China is Australia’s largest trading partner.”

The Australian dollar sank 0.5 percent to $1.0269, while the New Zealand currency lost 0.2 percent to 79.29 U.S. cents.

To contact the reporters on this story: Candice Zachariahs in Sydney at czachariahs2@bloomberg.net; Masaki Kondo in Singapore at mkondo3@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Garfield Reynolds at greynolds1@bloomberg.net




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GOP Hopefuls Make Their Appeals at Churches

By John McCormick and David Mildenberg - Jan 16, 2012 3:08 AM GMT+0700

Rick Santorum tried to capitalize on a call from evangelical leaders to coalesce behind an alternative to Mitt Romney as Republican presidential candidates made their pitches at South Carolina worship services.

Santorum’s endorsement came on the final weekend before the Jan. 21 primary in a state where 60 percent of 2008 Republican primary voters said in exit polls that they consider themselves “born again” or evangelical Christians.

“I’m the consistent conservative,” Santorum said on “Fox News Sunday,” when asked about the endorsement. “I’m someone who’s willing to stand up for all of the issues, not just the moral and cultural issues, but economic issues and the moral crisis of this debt and this explosion of government.”


Former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich declined to answer a reporter who asked whether too much is being made of the evangelicals’ endorsement as he left a church in North Charleston.

Santorum received 85 of 114 votes on the third ballot at a gathering of religious leaders on a ranch near Bleiblerville, Texas, defeating Gingrich, Tony Perkins, president of the Family Research Council, told reporters on a conference call yesterday.

Santorum isn’t the obvious alternative to Romney, Gingrich said today on NBC’s “Meet the Press” program, adding that polls have shown he’s “the strongest rival” to Romney in South Carolina. If he loses in the state, Gingrich said, he’d reassess his candidacy.

Boost to Santorum

The endorsement may give a boost to Santorum, a former U.S. senator from Pennsylvania, among social conservatives who give greater weight to abortion, gay marriage and religious freedom. Evangelicals helped propel former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee into second place in South Carolina four years ago, and did so for Santorum this year in the Jan. 3 Iowa caucuses, where he almost tied Romney for first place.

Speaking to more than 1,000 at the Cathedral of Praise church, Gingrich stressed his opposition to abortion.

“If you believe life begins at conception, then you are inevitably into a series of conclusions that are difficult and challenging,” he said. “It means that at minimum you would defund Planned Parenthood of all taxpayer money and take that money and give it to adoption services.”

Gingrich, speaking the day after Santorum visited the same church, also argued that voters should look for someone who will shake things up in Washington.

Very Blunt

“I have a reputation for being very blunt and very plainspoken,” he said. “I have earned this reputation. Sometimes it makes me a little controversial, and let me tell you, when the system is as sick as the current system is, a little controversy will be a good thing.”

Gingrich also acknowledged his long record of controversy.

“I don’t come here today as a perfect person,” said Gingrich, who is on his third marriage. “I don’t come here today without -- I guess the advertisement is -- baggage.”

Former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman Jr. received the endorsement today of the State newspaper in South Carolina’s capital of Columbia, while Romney, who took the day off from the campaign trail, won the backing of the Greenville News.

Reappearing in South Carolina later today will be U.S. Representative Ron Paul of Texas, who has made just one campaign appearance in the state since his second-place showing in the New Hampshire primary on Jan. 10. The libertarian-leaning candidate was scheduled to attend an endorsement announcement in Myrtle Beach, South Carolina.

Not Dropping Out

After the voting in Texas, Santorum said yesterday he wouldn’t ask others to drop out of the race to help focus social conservatives.

Representatives for each contender for the nomination, with the exception of Huntsman, spoke in support of their candidate, said Perkins, who described the group as “conservative leaders, businessmen and political activists.”

Organizers included Gary Bauer, president of American Values in Washington, and Donald Wildmon, founder of the American Family Association of Tupelo, Mississippi, Perkins said. Also attending was Richard Land, president of the Nashville, Tennessee-based Ethics and Religious Liberty Commission of the Southern Baptist Convention.

Romney’s Mormon faith wasn’t discussed by the evangelical group, which included members of several Christian denominations, Perkins said.

‘Reliable’ Santorum

No coordinated effort to support Santorum is expected, Perkins said, though the groups represented may step up fundraising and direct-mail programs to help him.

Perkins described Santorum as “reliable” and said that stumbles by Texas Governor Rick Perry “were too great to overcome” for him in a general election.

Perry said today on CNN’s “State of the Union” that voters will decide who wins in South Carolina.

“I’ve been in this business long enough to understand that you’re not going to get everyone to love you,” he said. “It’s not organizations that elect; it’s the people and we’re going directly to the people.”

Asked whether he would continue on to Florida’s Jan. 31 primary even if he placed last in South Carolina, Perry said, “That’s our intention.”

Campaigning yesterday in Sumter, South Carolina, Romney didn’t address the Santorum endorsement. He also ignored shouted questions from a reporter as he signed autographs.

Conservative Elements

U.S. Senator John McCain of Arizona, who supports Romney, dismissed the Santorum announcement on CNN’s “State of the Union.” He said the Republican Party needs to be concerned with not putting too much focus on the most conservative elements of its membership.

“Jobs and the economy are the transcendent issues of this campaign,” said McCain, the Republican presidential nominee in 2008. He said the economy is “a much higher priority for the voters” of South Carolina and on that score “every poll shows Mitt Romney is most electable.”

The South Carolina (BEESSC) contest will play out in an economic environment that’s worse than the national average. The state’s unemployment rate was 9.9 percent in November, the most recent month available, compared with December’s national rate of 8.5 percent. That’s high enough to put South Carolina in the top 10 states for the most unemployment in November.

On the final weekend before the primary, advertising also grew more frequent across the state.

A political action committee backing Perry began airing an ad that attacks Gingrich on ethics and accuses Santorum of voting for pay raises and locally targeted federal spending projects known as earmarks.

Winning Our Future, a committee backing Gingrich, is airing two new ads in South Carolina. One links Romney to President Barack Obama’s 2010 health-care overhaul and says Romney is “not conservative” and “not electable.”

The Red White and Blue Fund, a group supporting Santorum’s campaign, began airing a commercial that promotes his opposition to abortion and radical Islam.

To contact the reporters on this story: John McCormick in North Charleston, South Carolina, at jmccormick16@bloomberg.net; David Mildenberg in Brenham, Texas, at dmildenberg@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Jeanne Cummings at jcummings21@bloomberg.net




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Carnival Wreck May Exacerbate Business Loss

By Beth Jinks - Jan 16, 2012 2:32 AM GMT+0700
Enlarge image Medicals workers Carry A Passenger

Medical workers carry a passenger from the Costa Concordia on a stretcher at Porto Santo Stefano, Italy on Jan. 14, 2012. Photographer: Filippo Monteforte/AFP/Getty Images

Passengers from the cruise ship Costa Concordia gather on the island of Giglio, Italy where they have been staying after the vessel ran aground. Photographer: Laura Lezza/Getty Images


The timing of Carnival Corp. (CCL)’s Costa Concordia cruise ship’s grounding off the coast of Italy, at the start of the peak booking season, may exacerbate the company’s losses.

About one-third of all cruise vacations are arranged during the so-called wave season from January to March, said Sharon Zackfia, an analyst with William Blair & Co. in Chicago.

“They’re the most profitable bookings,” Zackfia said in an interview. “Presumably most people now are booking for the key summer season, which is when the cruise lines make the bulk of their money.”

Europe accounted for about 38 percent of Carnival’s revenue in fiscal 2010, the last full year for which geographic results are available. Its Genoa-based Costa Crociere unit is the continent’s largest cruise line based on passengers and ship capacity, according to Miami-based Carnival, the world’s biggest cruise operator with brands that include Cunard and Princess Cruises.

Carnival will lose business from customers who were booked on future Concordia voyages, Zackfia said. There will be additional costs that are hard to estimate, she said. The company doesn’t have insurance that covers lost revenue or earnings from its ships or other operations, according to its most recent 10-K, filed in January 2011.

“They will obviously have customers who were booked on upcoming Concordia journeys that aren’t going to happen,” Zackfia said.

Death Toll

Five people were confirmed dead and about 15 remain missing from the Costa Concordia, which ran aground the night of Jan. 13 near the island of Giglio in the Tyrrhenian Sea. Three people were found alive in the capsized cruise liner. The ship’s captain has been arrested and accused of manslaughter, abandoning the vessel and causing the shipwreck.

Rescue workers evacuated more than 4,000 of the 4,229 passengers and crew aboard, Italy’s Civil Protection agency said on its website. Costa passengers come primarily from Italy, France and Germany, according to Carnival.

Search and rescue operations will continue through the night, according to a statement today by the regional government in the province of Grosseto. Costa Crociere has been ordered to remove the ship, according to the statement.

“I want to express our deep sorrow for this terrible tragedy,” Gianni Onorato, president of Costa Crociere, said in a statement. “I am only now able to speak on behalf of Costa because, as you will understand, I have been at Isola del Giglio to be close to the rescue operations.”

Ship Itinerary

The ship had embarked from Rome on a trip that was to include stops at ports in France and Spain. The liner hit rocks and Captain Francesco Schettino, after assessing the damage, decided to secure the ship and gave the evacuation order, Onorato said.

Costa has 15 ships and sails globally. The company agreed in 2007 to pay 510 million euros ($647 million) each for two Concordia-class ships. The Costa Favulosa, added to the fleet last year, and the Costa Fascinosa, scheduled to enter service in May, was to increase Costa’s capacity by 20.4 percent, according to company filings.

Carnival carries insurance that covers a number of risks within certain limitations, according to the January 2011 filing. The coverage includes hull and machine insurance, as well as protection and indemnity policy that includes crew and passenger injuries, shipwrecks, damage to third parties and pollution.

Insurance Coverage

The company also had practiced some self insurance in the past, according to Zackfia and to filings. Carnival had no immediate response to requests for specifics of its coverage.

The Costa Concordia was insured by companies including Assicurazioni Generali SpA (G), RSA Insurance Group Plc (RSA) and XL Group Plc (XL), said three people with knowledge of the policies. The three are among several insurers facing total costs of about 405 million euros ($512 million), said one of the people, who declined to be identified because policy terms are confidential.

“This is a company that has a very strong, solid cash flow and balance sheet,” Zackfia said.

With U.S. markets closed tomorrow for the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday, Carnival will trade for the first time following the incident in London. Carnival fell 2.5 percent in New York on Jan. 13, valuing the company at $27.8 billion. The shares declined 29 percent last year.

Bookings had been “strong” heading into the wave season, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Micky Arison said in a Dec. 20 statement, with “slightly higher prices with slightly lower occupancies.”

Company Earnings

For the year ended in November, revenue rose 9.2 percent to $15.8 billion, Carnival said on Dec. 20. The company projected then that net income would rise to $2.55 to $2.85 a share this year, adjusted for one-time items, from $2.42 in fiscal 2011.

The company’s last major incident happened in November 2010, when an engine fire aboard Carnival Splendor stranded the cruise ship off the California and Mexican coasts for days, with more than 4,400 passengers aboard. Splendor, which has since been repaired, was used for Mexican Riviera voyages from Long Beach, California.

“Historically, they’ve had a very good safety track record,” Zackfia said. “This is definitely a tragic event. I’m sure the company is taking this seriously.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Beth Jinks in New York at bjinks1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Anthony Palazzo at apalazzo@bloomberg.net




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Friday, January 13, 2012

Apple Beijing Shop Pelted With Eggs as IPhone Debut Botched

By Bloomberg News - Jan 13, 2012 4:07 PM GMT+0700

Jan. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Apple Inc., whose skill at hyping new products has helped make it the world’s most valuable technology company, became a victim of its own success with a botched introduction of its iPhone 4S in China. Would-be customers who had endured a wait overnight as temperatures dropped below minus 9 degrees Celsius reacted with fury after the company’s main store in Beijing’s Sanlitun district failed to open. Linzie Janis reports on Bloomberg Television's "First Look." (Source: Bloomberg)

Broken eggs are seen outside an Apple Inc. store in Beijing. Photographer: Nelson Ching/Bloomberg

Eggs streak down the facade of an Apple Inc. store in Beijing. Photographer: Nelson Ching/Bloomberg


Apple Inc. (AAPL), whose skill at hyping new products helped make it the world’s most valuable technology company, became a victim of its own success after a botched introduction of its iPhone 4S in China led it to suspend sales.

Would-be customers who waited overnight as temperatures dropped below minus 9 degrees Celsius reacted with fury after the company’s main store in Beijing’s Sanlitun district failed to open. The company sold out of the handsets at stores that did open and later halted sales of all iPhones at its five retail outlets in the country “for the time being,” spokeswoman Carolyn Wu said by phone.

Apple had advertised that the store would open at 7 a.m. At 7:15 a.m., people began chanting “Open the door!” and “Liars!” after an unidentified man said over a bullhorn that the phone wouldn’t go on sale today, without giving an explanation. The store stayed closed “for safety reasons,” Wu said. Beijing police temporarily cordoned off the shop after it was pelted with eggs by the crowd.

“This is a debacle,” Shaun Rein, managing director of China Market Research Group, a Shanghai-based retail advising company, said in a phone interview today. “Everybody knows there will be massive numbers of people when Apple has this kind of a launch. This shows very poor retail management ability.”

‘Very Angry’

Elsewhere in the capital, the introduction went more smoothly. At Apple’s store in the Xidan neighborhood, the company handed out 1,000 tickets good for the purchase of a maximum two iPhone 4S handsets each. In Shanghai, a store in the Pudong district opened an hour early to accommodate the waiting crowds before selling out of the phones immediately.

“I’m very angry,” said Li Yun, 59, a retiree who said she tried to buy the device on behalf of her daughter at the People’s Square store in Shanghai. “They had said they would start selling the iPhone 4S at 7 a.m. but I was told they were already sold out by the time I got here at 6 a.m.”

About 60 migrant workers, hired by resellers to line up last night outside Apple’s store in Beijing’s Xidan, weren’t paid the 120 yuan ($19) they were promised because they failed to get an iPhone 4S after the 12-hour wait, according to several of them, who asked not to be named for fear of reprisal. They came by bus from a labor market in the suburbs and received only a 10-yuan food allowance, they said.

Expansion Slowed

The crush of crowds at the stores is a reflection of the company’s decision to slow the opening of outlets in China, Rein said.

Apple in February 2010 announced a plan for 25 stores in China over two years, then slowed the expansion. Including the Hong Kong shop, which started selling the iPhone 4s on Nov. 11, there are six in the country.

“There isn’t enough product in enough retail points,” Rein said. “If they had more points of sale, it would disperse the crowds.”

Hundreds of people lined up outside the store in Hong Kong’s IFC Mall for several nights when the new iPhone went on sale, prompting police to use metal barricades to keep order.

Apple has more than 300 outlets worldwide and planned to sell the latest iPhone model through its three stores in Shanghai, two in Beijing, the two main cities in the world’s largest mobile-phone market.

Second-Largest Market

The Cupertino, California-based company sold 5.6 million iPhones in China in the first nine months of last year, giving it a 10.4 percent share of the smartphone market in the third quarter, according to research company Gartner Inc. Apple’s Wu earlier declined to comment on the outlook for iPhone 4S sales in China.

Apple’s stores in China generate the highest traffic and highest revenue of any of the company’s stores in the world, on average, Chief Financial Officer Peter Oppenheimer said last January.

The maker of Macintosh computers and the iPad tablet increased its revenue in China to $13 billion in the year ended Sept. 24, from $3 billion a year earlier, Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook said in October. China accounted for 16 percent of Apple’s revenue in the fiscal fourth-quarter, making it the company’s biggest national market after the U.S.

Foxconn Suicides

Today’s confrontation wasn’t the first during a product introduction at the Sanlitun store, which opened in 2008 as Apple’s first in the country. In May, the store was temporarily closed when a group that lined up outside to buy the iPad 2 “became unruly,” Wu of Apple said at the time. Four people were injured and a glass door to the shop was smashed, the China Daily reported.

The violence adds to challenges for Apple in China, where company supplier Foxconn Technology Group was hit by a series of employee suicides. The Taipei-based company installed safety nets on buildings, raised pay and hired counselors in 2010 after at least 10 workers killed themselves. Apple also commissioned a review by a team of suicide-prevention experts.

China Unicom (Hong Kong) Ltd., the nation’s second-largest carrier, is the only one of the country’s three service providers offering the iPhone with a service contract. The company sent a text message to subscribers trumpeting free home delivery of the new handset through its online store.

Yellow Bulls

“Buy the iPhone 4S without lining up!” China Unicom (762) said in a text sent to subscribers in Beijing. Unicom’s online shop made the device available at midnight, the text said.

While Apple suspended iPhone 4s sales at its China shops, the handsets remain available on its website as well as from Unicom and resellers, Wu said.

Sophia Tso, a spokeswoman at China Unicom in Hong Kong, didn’t immediately reply to messages left by phone and e-mail seeking comment.

The Unicom site lists the 16-gigabyte model for 5,880 yuan ($932), with different levels of subsidies. The handset is free to users committing to a three-year plan for 286 yuan a month or a two-year plan costing 386 yuan a month, the website said.

The crowd around Apple’s main Beijing store diminished after police lifted the cordon and the doors remained closed. Some waited a while longer for a chance to buy the phone, which includes voice recognition software that doesn’t work with Mandarin, before giving up.

“We were unable to open our store at Sanlitun due to the large crowd and to ensure the safety of our customers and employees,” Wu said.

The fracas outside the store was caused by yellow bulls, a euphemism for people who buy the phones for sale at a markup, Tony Si, an 18-year-old bartender, said outside the store. The disorder, police response and store closing was their fault, not Apple’s, though he is still disappointed, he said.

“I’m angry because they said they’d sell it, and now they aren’t selling it,” Si said.

To contact Bloomberg News staff for this story: Edmond Lococo in Beijing at elococo@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Michael Tighe at mtighe4@bloomberg.net




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JPMorgan Profit Falls on Trading, Investment Banking

By Dawn Kopecki - Jan 13, 2012 10:20 PM GMT+0700

Jan. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Charles Peabody, an analyst at Portales Partners LLC, talks about JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s fourth-quarter profit. JPMorgan said net income fell 23 percent to $3.73 billion, or 90 cents a share, as trading revenue and investment-banking fees declined. Peabody speaks with Betty Liu and Dominic Chu on Bloomberg Television's "In the Loop." (Source: Bloomberg)

Jan. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Jason Pride, director of investment strategy at Glenmede, talks about JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s fourth-quarter earnings reported today and investment strategy. The largest U.S. bank by assets said net income fell 23 percent to $3.73 billion, or 90 cents a share, as trading revenue and investment-banking fees declined. Pride speaks with Betty Liu and Dominic Chu on Bloomberg Television's "In the Loop." (Source: Bloomberg)


JPMorgan Chase & Co. fell the most in more than a month in New York trading after the bank reported a 23 percent drop in profit on lower investment-banking fees and revenue from trading stocks and bonds.

JPMorgan, the biggest U.S. bank by assets, dropped 3.9 percent to $35.42 at 10:18 a.m., the steepest decline since Dec. 8. The company said fourth-quarter net income slid to $3.73 billion, or 90 cents a share, from $4.83 billion, or $1.12, in the same period a year earlier.

Revenue in every investment-banking business fell from a year earlier, including an 18 percent drop in trading. The division’s total revenue declined 30 percent to $4.36 billion as corporate clients stayed on the sidelines on concern Europe’s debt crisis would lead to an economic slowdown. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon said the investment-banking business is “naturally volatile” and would eventually bounce back.

“I don’t think that these numbers are permanent,” Dimon, 55, said on a conference call with journalists after earnings were released. “When things come back these numbers will boom again and we’ll be geniuses, and it won’t be because we did anything, it will be because we stayed in the game.”

JPMorgan’s drop was the second-biggest on the KBW Bank Index (BKX) of 24 companies, after Bank of America Corp. (BAC)’s 4.4 percent decline.

Job Cuts

Financial institutions are eliminating jobs to compensate for falling trading revenue, disclosing plans to reduce staff by more than 200,000 worldwide, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, Britain’s biggest government-owned bank, said this week it would cut about 4,800.

For the year, JPMorgan’s net income was a record $19 billion, 9 percent higher than in 2010. Revenue for 2011 declined 5 percent to $97.2 billion, and fourth-quarter revenue fell 18 percent, to $21.5 billion, the lowest in three years and below the $22.6 billion estimated by analysts in the Bloomberg survey.

“We believe these returns were reasonable given the environment, although the return for the fourth quarter was modestly disappointing,” Dimon said in the statement.

Fixed-income and equity-markets revenue dropped to $3.27 billion from $4 billion a year earlier and $4.75 billion in the third quarter, the company said.

Retail banking earned $533 million, down 54 percent from the third quarter and up 16 percent from a year earlier. The division benefited from a reduction in loss provisions to $779 million from $2.42 billion in the prior year.

Credit Cards

Fewer consumers fell behind on credit-card payments in the fourth quarter compared with the same period in 2010. Loans at least 30 days overdue, a signal of future write-offs, fell to 1.13 percent from 1.22 percent. Write-offs dropped to 4.29 percent from 7.85 percent the prior year and 4.7 percent in the previous quarter.

The so-called Durbin amendment, which limits what lenders can charge merchants on debit transactions, took effect on Oct. 1, affecting almost all U.S. banks and costing the top 25 about $1.5 billion, Jason Goldberg, a senior bank analyst at Barclays Capital in New York, said.

JPMorgan said today the new rules will reduce its net income by about $600 million a year, and Dimon said on the call that the Durbin amendment was a “gross miscarriage of justice.” Chief Financial Officer Douglas Braunstein said the Durbin amendment reduced revenue $350 million in the fourth quarter.

Mortgage Buybacks

Losses from buying back mortgages JPMorgan previously sold may amount to about $350 million per quarter this year, the bank forecast today. Quarterly repurchase losses averaged $337 million last year.

JPMorgan’s net income continued to benefit from releasing back into earnings reserves previously set aside for bad mortgages, credit cards and other loans, although it was smaller than in previous periods. The bank released $723 million in reserves in the fourth quarter, compared with $2.1 billion a year earlier. The bank added $4.66 billion in net income through reserve releases for the year, compared with $7 billion in 2010.

The company continued to build its litigation reserves, setting aside $528 million more for mortgage-related lawsuits.

JPMorgan, which has benefited from record low costs of funding mortgages and other assets, faces a squeeze on its net interest margin -- the difference between what it pays to borrow money and what it gets for loans and on securities.

The bank’s margin narrowed to 2.7 percent from 2.88 percent a year earlier.

Lower Taxes

JPMorgan was able to boost profit last quarter by paying less in taxes. The company’s effective tax rate was 21 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with 31 percent a year earlier and 27 percent in the third quarter.

The lower tax rate contributed about 10 cents to JPMorgan’s per-share earnings, helping it to meet or beat some analysts’ estimates, Keith Horowitz of Citigroup Investment Research, said in a note to clients today.

Goldberg at Barclays Capital said the fourth quarter was probably the worst earnings period for the industry during 2011.

“A lot of it is driven by the challenging capital markets environment,” he said in a Jan. 9 interview. “Trading revenues started out the year off strong, and then the second half of the year was quite challenged. That business bounces around.”

U.S. banks are in the middle of the industry’s worst two years of revenue growth since the Great Depression, according to Mike Mayo, an analyst with independent research firm CLSA in New York. Earnings across the industry were weak in the fourth quarter and won’t have much improvement this year, he said.

Bank Stocks

Slowing economic growth, mounting mortgage liabilities and heightened concern that Europe’s debt crisis will spread have weighed on bank stocks all year. Just two of the 24 companies in the KBW Bank Index posted a gain in 2011, and the worst performer, Bank of America, was down 58 percent.

Large super-regional banks such as Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) and Pittsburgh-based PNC Financial Services Group Inc. will probably fare better as the basic business of taking deposits and making loans gives reason for optimism, Goldberg said.

Bank of America, second by assets to JPMorgan, will probably post $5.82 billion in adjusted earnings for the year when the Charlotte, North Carolina-based company reports next week, according to the Bloomberg survey.

Citigroup Inc. (C)’s 2011 profit was estimated at $11.6 billion, or 12 percent higher than the previous year, and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) is projected to report a 62 percent decline to $2.95 billion, the Bloomberg survey shows. Morgan Stanley, the sixth-largest U.S. bank, may post $2.22 billion of adjusted earnings, down 29 percent. All three companies are based in New York.

To contact the reporter on this story: Dawn Kopecki in New York at dkopecki@bloomberg.com.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: David Scheer at dscheer@bloomberg.net



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Draghi Says Crisis Strategy Is Working as ECB Fights Threat From Turmoil

By Jeff Black and Jana Randow - Jan 13, 2012 5:48 PM GMT+0700

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi says his strategy for battling Europe’s debt crisis is starting to work.

The ECB’s massive injection of cash into the financial system last month is beginning to lubricate seized credit markets and there are “tentative signs” of economic stabilization in the euro area, Draghi said in Frankfurt yesterday. While “substantial downside risks” remain, he pointed to falling yields on Italian and Spanish debt this week.

That may mitigate the need for further interest rate cuts in the short term and muffle calls for the ECB to step up its government bond purchases. While the 17-nation euro region is still in danger of sliding into recession after the debt crisis spread to Italy and Spain, driving up borrowing costs and hurting the export markets of stronger economies such as Germany, recent data suggest the worst may be over.

“The ECB can be rightly justified in saying that the Armageddon we were facing toward the end of last year does seem to have been addressed,” said James Nixon, chief European economist at Societe Generale SA in London. “Further rate cuts will only be forthcoming if, for example, we see signs of an outright credit crunch.”

The euro climbed more than a cent after Draghi spoke and traded at $1.2814 at 11:40 a.m. in Frankfurt today. The ECB yesterday held its benchmark rate at a record low of 1 percent after two straight reductions, as predicted by 47 of 53 economists in a Bloomberg News survey.

‘Ready to Act’

Asked if the ECB is open to cutting rates further, Draghi said it depends on the inflation outlook. He indicated rates will remain low for an extended period.

“The monetary stance is and will remain accommodative,” Draghi said. “Uncertainty is very high. We will monitor all developments and stand ready to act.”

Signs of economic stabilization may stay the ECB’s hand for the time being.

German exports gained in November and business sentiment in France climbed from a two-year low last month. At the same time, the German statistics office said on Jan. 11 that Europe’s largest economy contracted in the fourth quarter of 2011, raising the prospect of recession.

“There are tentative signs of stabilization of economic activity at low levels,” Draghi said.

Three-Year Loans

In addition, the ECB’s three-year loans to banks, totaling a record 489 billion euros ($628 billion), are beginning to unlock markets and have prevented a “serious” credit contraction, he said.

“It was rather comforting to see that some opening of the unsecured bond market is actually taking place, but we really are at the beginning of this process,” Draghi said. “Let’s hope it will continue.”

The market for senior unsecured bonds dried up last July after European leaders insisted on private investors participating in a Greek debt write-down. In a sign confidence may be returning to the market, Rabobank Nederland last week sold 2.75 billion euros of floating-rate senior unsecured notes and 1.75 billion euros of senior unsecured bonds.

Draghi said it remains unclear whether banks will use ECB loans to buy sovereign bonds. He nevertheless noted the recent decline in yields across the euro region and the lower cost of borrowing at Italian and Spanish debt auctions yesterday.

Debt Sales

Italy yesterday sold 12 billion euros of Treasury bills, meeting its target, with the rate on the one-year bills plunging to 2.735 percent from 5.952 percent at the last auction of similar-maturity securities on Dec. 12. Spain sold 9.98 billion euros of bonds maturing in 2015 and 2016, twice its maximum target. Today Italy sold 3 billion euros of 6 percent bonds maturing in 2014, with the yield falling to 4.83 percent from 5.62 percent.

“While it’s premature to claim that the ECB’s new liquidity measures have forestalled a credit crunch, their effect is palpable in government bond markets,” said Nicholas Spiro, managing director of Spiro Sovereign Strategy in London. “Who would have predicted in November that in January Italy would be able to sell one-year paper at 2.7 percent?”

As the debt crisis escalated in the last quarter of 2011, the ECB faced increasing calls to ramp up its government bond purchases to cap yields. Draghi and colleagues including Germany’s Jens Weidmann pushed back, urging politicians to sort out their fiscal problems while the ECB supplied funds to prevent the banking system from collapsing.

ECB ‘Prescription’

“Beyond providing generous liquidity support to banks, the ECB does not seem to be contemplating any measure to tackle tensions in sovereign debt markets more directly,” said Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank in London. “If escalating tensions were to clog up the transmission channels more severely, the ECB might have to do more.”

Draghi said he expects “substantial demand” for the ECB’s second batch of three-year loans that will be awarded on Feb. 29. Banks can borrow as much as they like against collateral and the ECB has widened the pool of assets that can be used for obtaining the funds.

“The provision of liquidity and the allotment modes for refinancing operations will continue to support the euro-area banks, and thus the financing of the real economy,” Draghi said.

Economists including Marco Valli at UniCredit in Milan say ECB rates may now be on hold for the rest of the year.

“Obviously things can change very quickly and then the ECB will act,” said Ken Wattret, chief euro-area market economist at BNP Paribas in London. “But for now, its prescription is doing what it set out to do, so there is no rush to cut rates and massively step up asset purchases.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Jeff Black in Frankfurt at jblack25@bloomberg.net; Jana Randow in Frankfurt at jrandow@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Craig Stirling at cstirling1@bloomberg.net




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Stocks, Euro, Oil Fall on Reports of ‘Imminent’ S&P Downgrades in Europe

By Rita Nazareth and Allison Bennett - Jan 13, 2012 9:54 PM GMT+0700

Jan. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Michael Holland, chairman of Holland & Co., talks about JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s fourth-quarter earnings reported today and outlook. The largest U.S. bank by assets said net income fell 23 percent to $3.73 billion, or 90 cents a share, as trading revenue and investment-banking fees declined. Holland speaks with Erik Schatzker, Scarlet Fu and Stephanie Ruhle on Bloomberg Television's "InsideTrack." (Source: Bloomberg)

Jan. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Richard Staite, an analyst at Atlantic Equities LLP, talks about the outlook for JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s fourth-quarter results to be reported today, Wells Fargo & Co.'s dividend, and expectations for the U.S. banking industry. He speaks with Mark Barton on Bloomberg Television's "Countdown." (Source: Bloomberg)

Jan. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Norman Chan, head of investment at Calibre Asset Management, discusses the outlook for Asian economic growth and stocks. He speaks from Hong Kong with Caroline Hyde on Bloomberg Television's "First Look." (Source: Bloomberg)


Stocks fell, trimming a weekly gain, while the euro and commodities slid following reports that several European countries may face imminent credit downgrades by Standard & Poor’s. Yields on German bunds slid to record lows and Treasuries rallied.

The S&P 500 fell 0.8 percent to 1,285.71 at 9:53 a.m. in New York, paring its weekly gain to 0.6 percent. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index slipped 0.4 percent after increasing as much as 0.7 percent earlier. The euro slumped 1 percent to $1.2682, near a 16-month low. Treasuries extended gains, sending the 10-year note’s yield down six basis points to 1.87 percent, and Italian, Spanish and Belgian bonds dropped. Germany’s 30-year yield lost as much as 10 basis points to 2.33 percent.

The downgrades may happen as soon as today, according to Dow Jones Newswires, which cited European Union sources. Germany’s rating will not be cut, Reuters reported, citing a senior euro-area source. Banks led losses in U.S. stocks after JPMorgan Chase & Co. reported a drop in profit, sending shares of the largest U.S. bank by assets down as much as 4.7 percent.

“The cloud of Europe has weighed on investors’ sentiment,” Keith Wirtz, who oversees $14.6 billion as chief investment officer at Fifth Third Asset Management in Cincinnati, said in a telephone interview. “These downgrading actions in Europe were expected down the road, not right now.”

Financial Shares Slump

Financial shares in the S&P 500 lost 1.7 percent as a group to lead the S&P 500’s drop as Bank of America Corp., Wells Fargo & Co. and Citigroup Inc. lost at least 1.9 percent. Declines in trading revenue and investment banking fees sent JPMorgan’s fourth-quarter profit down 23 percent to $3.73 billion, or 90 cents a share, matching the average estimate of 90 cents by 28 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

Wells Fargo & Co., Citigroup Inc. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. are due to release results next week.

The S&P 500 had risen for four straight days, bringing this week’s gain to 1.4 percent and its 2012 advance to 3 percent before today.

The Stoxx 600 rose earlier following a report the European Banking Authority will postpone stress tests, while borrowing costs fell at an Italian debt auction. Italy sold 3 billion euros ($3.8 billion) of bonds maturing in 2014 to yield 4.83 percent, compared with 5.62 percent at the previous auction.

To contact the reporters on this story: Allison Bennett in New York at abennett23@bloomberg.net; Rita Nazareth in New York at rnazareth@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Chris Nagi at chrisnagi@bloomberg.net




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Stocks Fall Amid Europe Downgrade Concern, JPMorgan

By Rita Nazareth - Jan 13, 2012 10:02 PM GMT+0700

U.S. stocks fell, snapping a four- day rally for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, on a report that several euro-region countries may face credit downgrades by S&P and as JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s profit slumped 23 percent.

All 10 groups in the S&P 500 declined as financial, industrial and commodity gauges slid at least 0.7 percent. JPMorgan, the largest U.S. bank by assets, retreated 3.3 percent. Bank of America Corp. (BAC), Morgan Stanley and Citigroup Inc. (C) retreated at least 3.2 percent. Eastman Kodak Co. (EK) tumbled 22 percent as the unprofitable imaging company is said to be in talks with Citigroup to provide bankruptcy financing.

The S&P 500 lost 0.8 percent to 1,285.32 as of 10 a.m. New York time, after the report by Dow Jones Newswires, which cited European Union sources. The benchmark gauge advanced 1.4 percent over the previous four days. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 102.70 points, or 0.8 percent, to 12,368.32 today.

“The cloud of Europe has weighed on investors’ sentiment,” Keith Wirtz, who oversees $14.6 billion as chief investment officer at Fifth Third Asset Management in Cincinnati, said in a telephone interview. “These downgrading actions in Europe were expected down the road, not right now,” he said. “JPMorgan had very soft business results coming from investment banking and trading. Still, they were able to scratch out an EPS result in line with expectations.”

The S&P 500 was still headed for the second week of gains amid lower borrowing costs at auctions in Europe. Investors also watched fourth-quarter results. S&P 500 companies, which beat estimates in the previous 11 quarters, are forecast to report a 6 percent increase in per-share profit during the September- December period, according to projections compiled by Bloomberg.

Economic Data

The U.S. trade deficit widened more than forecast in November as American exports declined and companies stepped up imports of crude oil and automobiles. Separately, the Thomson Reuters-University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment in January rose to 74 from 69.9 at the end of December. The gauge was projected to rise to 71.5, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey.

Financial companies slumped. JPMorgan dropped 3.3 percent to $35.64. Investment-banking revenue declined 30 percent to $4.36 billion from a year earlier as many clients stayed on the sidelines on concern the European debt crisis would lead to a global economic slowdown.

“Financials would have to participate for the market to do well,” James Dunigan, who helps oversee $104 billion as chief investment officer in Philadelphia for PNC Wealth Management, said in a telephone interview. “We’ll look to see whether all that disruption in Europe had some an effect in overall earnings reports. If that bleeds over into our export numbers, it may have an impact on the earnings side.”

Bank Shares

Bank of America lost 3.8 percent to $6.53, while Morgan Stanley (MS) retreated 3.2 percent to $16.62. Citigroup fell 3.2 percent to $30.60. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) slid 3 percent to $98.22.

Kodak tumbled 22 percent to 53 cents. The company may seek protection from creditors within weeks and then hold an auction to sell its patent portfolio, said three people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified because the talks are private. Kodak may seek about $1 billion in so-called debtor-in- possession financing, though terms may change, two people said.

Charles Schwab Corp. (SCHW) lost 2.2 percent to $12.20. The independent, San Francisco-based brokerage was downgraded to “market perform” from “outperform” at Wells Fargo & Co.

Relative Calm

Stock investors shouldn’t get used to the relative calm that markets are now showing, according to Andrew Garthwaite, a global equity strategist at Credit Suisse Group AG.

Volatility is likely to rise this year, Garthwaite wrote yesterday in a report. He attributed the outlook to excessive borrowing in developed economies, which ensures that investors will be “abnormally sensitive” to shifts in economic growth and government policy, he added.

“Sentiment in the market has clearly changed over the past three months,” wrote Garthwaite, who is based in London. Both volatility gauges erased almost all of their gains from last year’s second-half stock slump. The reading for the S&P 500 dropped below 20 yesterday for the first time since Aug. 3.

Even so, developed-country debt is still $8 trillion too high, the report said. Garthwaite came up with that estimate by comparing the borrowing relative to gross domestic product with a figure based on the debt-to-GDP ratio’s trend during the past three decades.

The need to reduce this burden creates “a considerable amount of tail risk,” or potential for unlikely stock-market outcomes, the report said. He mentioned 11 possible surprises for this year. One was a breakup of the euro region, which he estimated would send the S&P 500 falling to 800, or 38 percent less than yesterday’s close.

To contact the reporter on this story: Rita Nazareth in New York at rnazareth@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Nick Baker at nbaker7@bloomberg.net




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RBS Capitulation Sets Blueprint for EU Banks

By Elisa Martinuzzi and Liam Vaughan - Jan 13, 2012 5:43 PM GMT+0700

Jan. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Gordon Kerr, founder of Cobden Partners, talks about the solvency of Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc. He speaks with Caroline Hyde on Bloomberg Television's "First Look." (Source: Bloomberg)

Jan. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Mark Steyn, chief executive officer for Asia Pacific at recruitment firm Hudson Highland Group Inc., talks about the hiring outlook for the global financial services industry. He speaks from Sydney with Susan Li on Bloomberg Television's "First Up." (Source: Bloomberg)


Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc’s decision to cut its European investment bank by more than a quarter may kick-start a wider shake-up among its rivals in the region as a fee drought and greater regulation force middle- ranking firms to shrink their operations.

RBS, the U.K.’s largest government-owned bank, said yesterday it will sell or close its equities, mergers advisory and equity capital markets businesses, eliminating 3,500 jobs. UniCredit SpA, which in November shut part of its equities unit, Nomura Holdings Inc. and UBS AG (UBSN) are also pulling back.

Banks running securities arms that are laggards in their industries may follow RBS in shuttering units because a decline in trading and a jump in the cost of operating under incoming regulation is rendering some businesses not viable, say analysts. Competition among dozens of lenders in Europe for services such as underwriting initial public offerings and advising on mergers and acquisitions contributed to record low fees, exacerbating the pressure on returns for firms that are relying on the region to drive growth.

“Middle-ranking banks are being squeezed as volumes have collapsed,” said Christopher Wheeler, an analyst at Mediobanca SpA in London. “The banks that are neither betwixt nor between can’t afford the cost base they’re running.”

Fees Decline

Europe’s investment banking fee pool, which comprises payments to banks for M&A advice, loans and underwriting debt and equity sales, posted the worst quarter since 2004 in the three months to December, according to New York-based research firm Freeman & Co.

Investment banking fees in Europe dropped to $4.2 billion in the fourth quarter of 2011 from $4.7 billion in the previous quarter and $7.2 billion in the second quarter. Fees hit a record $11.1 billion in the second quarter of 2007, the data show.

Competition has driven the average fee for an IPO in Europe to a record low of 1.87 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That is down from 2.5 percent in 2008 and 2.2 percent in 2007, a record year for IPOs.

Earnings in the 25 banks in Bloomberg’s European bank index are forecast to fall 40 percent from 2010 on average, driven by profit warnings among the U.K. banks, UBS and Erste Group Bank AG, according to a survey of analysts by Bloomberg.

Profit Declines

Profit at RBS’s investment bank fell 85 percent in the third quarter to 80 million pounds ($123 million), from 549 million pounds in the same period a year earlier. Nomura (8604) posted a 46.1 billion yen ($600 million) loss for the three months ended Sept. 30, the first since the quarter ended March 2009, driven by declines in trading and investment banking income. Pretax losses from overseas operations swelled to 52.4 billion yen, the most in at least six quarters.

“Low returns are an industry issue, although pressures are greatest for businesses that lack scale and have weaker market positions,” Raul Sinha, an analyst for JPMorgan Cazenove in London, said in a note to clients. “In addition, a structurally negative increase in fixed costs for the sector has removed a natural offset to revenue volatility.”

RBS is reversing a decade of expansion, closing units and cutting employees at the securities unit, led by John Hourican, by 29 percent to 13,500 by 2015. The Edinburgh-based bank will focus on fixed income, foreign exchange and transaction banking.

RBS Shares Rise

“The tough economic outlook and regulatory changes will impede our progress -- as it will for all banks,” RBS Chief Executive Officer Stephen Hester, 51, said in a memorandum circulated to employees yesterday. “I expect other banks to follow our lead in their own differing ways.”

Shares in RBS rose 6.6 percent to 24.5 pence at 10:40 a.m. in London, giving it a market value of 27 billion pounds. They have risen 22 percent this week.

RBS’s move is similar to Barclays Plc’s decision in 1997 to sell its Barclays de Zoete Wedd’s equities and advisory business for about 100 million pounds to focus on fixed income and foreign exchange, said Mediobanca’s Wheeler. The retained division was renamed Barclays Capital. (BARC)

“Both of them ended up with sub-scale equities businesses,” Wheeler said. “If you look at the track record for BZW, at a rather better time in the market, they had to give it away.”

UBS, Societe Generale

The resignation of two former Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. executives from Nomura this week may allow Japan’s biggest brokerage to revamp the business, which has stumbled since it bought assets of the failed U.S. firm in 2008. The firm plans $1.2 billion in cost cuts.

Last year securities firms globally culled more than 200,000 positions, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Among them, UBS, Switzerland’s biggest bank, said in November it will reduce staff at its securities unit by 2,000, or 11 percent, as it scales back in investment banking and focuses on wealth management.

Societe Generale SA (GLE), France’s second-largest bank, said it may eliminate 1,580 jobs in corporate and investment banking. UniCredit, Italy’s biggest lender, cut 130 jobs as it exited sales, trading and research for western European equities. UniCredit’s investment bank will tap Kepler Capital Markets SA, a French securities firm, to provide some research.

In Europe, 160 lenders underwrote stock sales last year, a $90.6 billion market, data compiled by Bloomberg show. In the U.S., less than half the number of firms, 72, managed $159 billion of stock offerings, the data show.

Nomura, Barclays

Notwithstanding the competition, the top 10 underwriters in Europe controlled 71 percent of the market. RBS, which is focused on Europe and the U.S., ranked 26th while the top nine underwriters, led by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) and Deutsche Bank AG, (DBK) run global businesses.

Banks expanded in equities trading over the last decade in Europe, lured by the stable revenue provided by buying and selling securities for customers. The credit crisis prompted firms such as Nomura and Barclays, Britain’s second-biggest bank by assets, to exploit the collapse of rivals to expand their equities operations and seize market share. Meanwhile, brokers that dominated the industry sought to maintain their leads and build on their positions.

Mergers Activity

M&A activity hasn’t recovered from the banking crisis of 2008 as companies opt to preserve cash rather than spend on acquisitions. The total value of M&A deals last year was $2.3 trillion, 44 percent lower than in 2007, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

“It is expensive and difficult to reverse these decisions so banks have put them off as long as possible,” said Matthew Clark, a bank analyst at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods Inc. in London. “We have had two years of depressed investment bank earnings.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Elisa Martinuzzi in Milan at emartinuzzi@bloomberg.net; Liam Vaughan in London at lvaughan6@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Edward Evans at eevans3@bloomberg.net



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