Economic Calendar

Wednesday, May 9, 2012

Greek Leaders Given Bailout Ultimatum

By Maria Petrakis and Natalie Weeks - May 9, 2012 4:00 AM GMT+0700

Alexis Tsipras of Greece’s Syriza party squared off with political leaders before talks on forming a coalition, handing them an ultimatum to renounce support for the European Union-led rescue if they want to enter government.

Tsipras said he expected Antonis Samaras of New Democracy and Evangelos Venizelos, the former finance minister who leads the Pasok party, to send a letter to the EU revoking their written pledges to implement austerity measures by the time he meets them today to discuss a government alliance. Samaras and Venizelos rejected the request. Samaras said he was being asked “to put my signature to the destruction of Greece.”

Leader of the Greek conservative party New Democracy Antonis Samaras in Athens. Photographer: Aris Messinis/AFP/Getty Images

May 8 (Bloomberg) -- German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Barton Biggs, managing partner and co-founder of Traxis Partners LP, and Carl Weinberg, founder and chief economist at High Frequency Economics, offer their views on European elections, Greece's debt crisis and the outlook for the euro zone. John Taylor, founder and chief executive officer of FX Concepts LLC; Charles Dallara, head of the Institute of International Finance; Andrew Bosomworth, a managing director at Pacific Investment Management Co., and David Blanchflower, a professor at Dartmouth College and a Bloomberg Television contributing editor, also speak. (Source: Bloomberg)

“He interprets, with unbelievable arrogance, the election result as a mandate to drag the country into chaos,” Samaras said late yesterday in televised remarks. “I hope Mr Tsipras will have come to his senses by the time we meet.” Tsipras is due to meet with political leaders from about 5 p.m. in Athens.


The stand-off since the inconclusive May 6 election has reignited European concerns over Greece’s ability to hold to the terms of its two bailouts negotiated since May 2010. With Parliament split and policy makers in Berlin and Brussels urging Greece to stay the course, the country at the epicenter of the debt crisis is again facing the risk of an exit from the euro.

‘Huge’ Repercussions

The repercussions are “potentially huge,” said Gillian Edgeworth, a London-based economist at UniCredit. “The chances of Spain needing official aid would increase, with implications for spillover to others.”

The risk of Greece leaving the euro by the end of 2013 has risen to as high as 75 percent, Citigroup Inc. said May 7.

Greek stocks sank to their lowest level in about two decades yesterday amid the political instability. The benchmark ASE Stock index fell 3.6 percent to 620.54 at the close in Athens, its lowest since November 1992. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index slid 1.7 percent. The euro fell 0.3 percent to $1.3007.

New Democracy and Pasok, rivals until the country’s crisis made them pro-bailout partners in a national government last year, are two deputies short of the 151 seats needed for a majority in the 300-seat chamber. President Karolos Papoulias handed the mandate to build a coalition to Tsipras yesterday, one day after Samaras, who won the election, abandoned his bid to forge a government.

Tsipras said he aimed to link up with parties in a government that would nationalize banks, place a moratorium on debt payments and cancel the bailout and measures such as labor reforms and pension cuts.

‘Plunder’ Greece

“The bailout parties no longer have a majority in parliament to vote for measures that plunder the country,” Tsipras told reporters. “There will be no 11 billion euros ($14 billion) of additional austerity measures; 150,000 jobs will not be cut.”

Samaras said yesterday that his party is prepared to support a minority government as long as it ensured Greece’s membership in the euro and its national interests.

Venizelos said Pasok’s proposal for a national unity government with the participation of all parties with a pro- European orientation was the only solution. Greece must remain “safely” within the euro while pursuing changes to the bailout accord to boost growth, he said.

International creditors urged Greek leaders to hold to the agreed terms of their EU-International Monetary Fund bailouts.

‘No Alternative’

“Greece has to be aware that there is no alternative to the agreed consolidation program if it wants to remain a member of the euro zone,” European Central Bank Executive Board member Joerg Asmussen was quoted as saying in an interview with Germany’s Handelsblatt newspaper to be published today.

German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle called on “the authorities in Greece to quickly move toward stability so that a government of reason can be formed,” telling reporters in Berlin that the steps to be taken in return for aid “are not up for negotiation.”

New Democracy won the election with 19 percent of the vote, gaining 108 seats; Syriza came second with 17 percent, winning 52 seats; and Pasok placed third with 13 percent, or 41 seats.

Tsipras met yesterday with the leader of Democratic Left, which won 19 seats in Parliament and rejects austerity measures. As well as talks with Samaras and Venizelos, he’s due to see the head of Independent Greeks, Panos Kammenos, who has 33 seats.

If Tsipras fails to build a working majority, the onus on forming a government will pass to Pasok. Each mandate can last for three days. If the process still fails to yield a coalition, the president must try to broker a government of national unity, the constitution says. If that fails, new elections are held.

New Elections

“A Greek return to the polls in mid-June looks increasingly likely,” Malcolm Barr, an economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co in London, said in a note. “There is little doubt that the drop in support for New Democracy, Pasok has raised the probability of an eventual euro exit.”

Either New Democracy and Pasok will form a government with the Democratic Left or Greece will hold new elections within weeks, said Thanos Veremis, the vice president of the Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy. New elections are the more likely scenario, in which case New Democracy and Pasok would see a return of voter support, he said. Veremis was an unsuccessful candidate on May 6 for Drasi, a pro-bailout party that failed to reach the threshold for entering the parliament.

“The Greeks have to blow their top to let the world know they are unhappy,” Veremis said by phone on May 7. “Once they do that, they tend to go back to the real world.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Maria Petrakis in Athens at mpetrakis@bloomberg.net; Natalie Weeks in Athens at nweeks2@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Tim Quinson at tquinson@bloomberg.net; Jerrold Colten at jcolten@bloomberg.net



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Ross Says Looming ‘Freak Show’ May Threaten U.S. Economy

By Jason Kelly - May 9, 2012 2:29 AM GMT+0700

The U.S. economy is at risk of slipping back into recession in 2013 because of likely impasses in Washington over taxes and mandatory spending cuts, said Wilbur Ross, the billionaire investor.

“That’s too big a hit for the economy to take,” Ross said today during a discussion at Bloomberg Markets’ Global Financial Elite lunch in New York. “We’re going to have another freak show at the end of the year.”

Wilbur Ross, chairman and chief executive officer of WL Ross & Co. LLC. Photographer: Scott Eells/Bloomberg

Ross said he’s worried that President Barack Obama and Congress won’t be able to agree on extending tax cuts passed under former President George W. Bush that expire at the end of 2012, or on mandatory spending cuts tied to the extension of the country’s debt-ceiling agreement. He said he’s optimistic about the U.S. economy between now and then, and found a new way to describe the shape of the recovery beyond a “W.”

“It’s more like punctuation,” he said. “Dots, dashes, question marks and an occasional exclamation point.”

W.L. Ross & Co., his namesake firm known for buying distressed assets in industries from steel to financial services, is largely avoiding investments in what he called “the Club Med countries” of Europe, according to Ross.

“It’s way too unsettled, even for our tastes, to be in Spain or countries like that just yet,” he said, adding that he has made deals in countries including Ireland. “You have to be very selective within Europe.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Jason Kelly in New York at jkelly14@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Christian Baumgaertel at cbaumgaertel@bloomberg.net





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Panasonic Rises After Report It May Swing to Profit

By Mariko Yasu and Shunichi Ozasa - May 9, 2012 8:15 AM GMT+0700

Panasonic Corp. (6752), Japan’s largest appliance maker, rose the most in two months in Tokyo trading after the Nikkei newspaper said it may post a 50 billion yen ($626 million) profit this fiscal year.

Panasonic advanced as much as 4.9 percent, the biggest intraday gain since March 9, to 605 yen and traded at 601 yen as of 9:58 a.m. Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 Stock Average lost 1.3 percent.

Attendees watch a presentation wearing Panasonic 3D glasses. Photographer: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg

The Osaka-based manufacturer, which has said it may post a record 780 billion-yen loss for the year ended March 31, may return to profit this year because of restructuring, the Nikkei reported, without saying where it got the information. The 50 billion-yen projection compares with the 106 billion-yen average of 18 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

Operating profit may rise to about 250 billion yen this year from 30 billion yen in the previous 12 months, the Nikkei reported. The projection compares with the 241 billion-yen average of 19 estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

Yuko Hosaka, a spokeswoman for Panasonic, said the company wasn’t the source of the report and that it will disclose its earnings May 11.

Panasonic’s revenue may be unchanged this year at about 8 trillion yen while television sales will probably fall below last year’s approximately 18 million units, the Nikkei said. Solar-cell sales will be buoyed by a government subsidy program, the report said.

Panasonic said in February it may post a 780 billion-yen loss for the year ended March 31, the most since the company was founded in 1918, after natural disasters disrupted production while the surging yen eroded overseas earnings and the global economy slowed.

President Fumio Ohtsubo, set to step down as president next month, has said he’s eliminating jobs, shifting output overseas and closing display factories in an attempt to transform Panasonic into a leader in solar panels and rechargeable batteries.

To contact the reporters on this story: Mariko Yasu in Tokyo at myasu@bloomberg.net; Shunichi Ozasa in Tokyo at sozasa@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Michael Tighe at mtighe4@bloomberg.net





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S&P 500 Declines to Lowest Level in One Month on Greece

By Rita Nazareth - May 9, 2012 3:40 AM GMT+0700

U.S. stocks retreated, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to the lowest level in almost a month, as political tension in Greece intensified concern about a euro exit and a deepening of the region’s debt crisis.

Equities trimmed earlier losses after the S&P 500 dropped below 1,350, a so-called support level being watched by traders. Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) Co. and Bank of America Corp. fell at least 2.1 percent to pace declines among the biggest companies. McDonald’s Corp., the world’s largest restaurant chain, slumped 2.1 percent as April sales trailed projections. Fossil Inc. (FOSL) plunged 38 percent, the most since 1995, after the owner of the namesake watch brand reduced its full-year earnings forecast.

May 8 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg’s Trish Regan, Adam Johnson and Alix Steel report on today’s ten most important stocks including Fluor, LinkedIn and Berkshire Hathaway. (Source: Bloomberg)

May 8 (Bloomberg) -- Michael Darda, chief economist and chief market strategist at MKM Partners LP, talks about the outlook for equity markets, investor sentiment and the prospects for a fiscal crisis. Darda speaks with Betty Liu, Joshua Lipton and Dominic Chu on Bloomberg Television's "In the Loop." (Source: Bloomberg)

May 8 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stock-index futures declined as Greek political leaders struggled to form a government, raising concern the Mediterranean nation may default on its debt as early as next month. (Source: Bloomberg)

The S&P 500 slid 0.4 percent to 1,363.72 at 4 p.m. New York time, trimming a loss of as much as 1.6 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 76.44 points, or 0.6 percent, to 12,932.09 for a fifth day of losses. Greek stocks sank to a two- decade low. About 7.8 billion shares changed hands on U.S. exchanges, or 17 percent above the three-month average.

“It’s the unknown in Europe affecting the market,” said Hank Smith, chief investment officer at Haverford Trust Co. in Radnor, Pennsylvania. His firm manages about $6.5 billion. “If Greece does exit the euro, will there be contagion? It could have a negative reverberation throughout the globe.”

Equities fell as Greece’s leaders met for a second day to try to form a government after an election that raised questions about the nation’s membership of the euro. Alexis Tsipras, leader of the Syriza party who has vowed to rip up the terms of Greece’s bailout, was handed the mandate to form a government after Antonis Samaras of New Democracy failed to reach a deal.

Euro Exit

Concern about the European debt crisis helped drive the S&P 500 down 2.5 percent in May. The situation in Europe could get “worse” before it gets better, according to James McDonald, chief investment strategist at Northern Trust Corp., whose firm manages $715 billion. John Taylor of hedge fund FX Concepts LLC said Greece will probably leave the euro as soon as next month as the government runs out of cash and European institutions fail to lend more to the nation.

“This summer I think is very likely,” Taylor, founder and chief executive officer of FX Concepts in New York, said today in an interview on Bloomberg Television’s “Inside Track” with Erik Schatzker. “The Europeans aren’t going to give them the money, the International Monetary Fund’s not going to give them an OK. They will be out of money in June.”

Stocks pared losses after the S&P 500 dipped below 1,350 for only about 15 minutes this morning. The market found support at that level, according to Michael Shaoul, chairman of Marketfield Asset Management in New York.

‘Buy the Dip’

“Once that held, you’ve seen a willingness to buy the dip in the U.S. market in names that people have become comfortable with,” said Shaoul. His firm oversees more than $1.6 billion.

Eight out of 10 groups in the S&P 500 retreated today as consumer discretionary, financial and commodity companies had the biggest declines. Utilities and health-care shares, which are less-tied to economic growth, rose. Hewlett-Packard dropped 2.3 percent, the most in the Dow, to $23.32. Bank of America sank 2.1 percent to $7.79.

McDonald’s (MCD) lost 2.1 percent to $93.55. Sales at stores open at least 13 months rose 3.3 percent worldwide last month, trailing estimates, as sales growth slowed in the U.S. Analysts projected a gain of 4.3 percent, the average of 13 estimates compiled by Consensus Metrix. Sales in the U.S. advanced 3.3 percent. Analysts estimated an increase of 5.2 percent.

Electronic Arts (EA) dropped 4.3 percent to $14.48. The second- largest U.S. video-game publisher tumbled after its forecasts for the current quarter and fiscal year fell short of analysts’ estimates. The company plans to cut jobs.

Most in S&P 500

Fossil plunged 38 percent, the most in the S&P 500, to $78.52. Wholesale revenue in Europe in the first quarter rose 4.7 percent from a year earlier, the Richardson, Texas-based company said today in a statement. Chief Financial Officer Mike Kovar said in a February conference call that wholesale and retail activity in the U.S. and Europe would increase in a “low double-digit area” in the first quarter and for the year.

Discovery Communications Inc. (DISCA) retreated 6.1 percent to $50.80. The owner of cable networks such as Animal Planet and TLC reported a 28 percent decline in first-quarter profit after a one-time gain last year on Oprah Winfrey’s network, OWN.

Wynn Resorts Ltd. (WYNN) slid 4.8 percent to $119.23. The casino company founded by billionaire Steve Wynn reported first-quarter earnings fell 19 percent, missing analysts’ projections on lower winnings in Las Vegas.

‘Modest’

Dendreon Corp. (DNDN) tumbled 25 percent to $8.75. The maker of the prostate cancer drug Provenge said growth this year will be “modest” and its first-quarter loss fell short of estimates.

Investors should buy utilities because the group tends to do better from May through October, when the S&P 500 averages its worst six-month return of the year, according to Sanford C. Bernstein & Co.

A gauge of utilities has risen at an average annualized pace of 12 percent from May through October since 1970 (S5UTIL), compared with a gain of 4.5 percent for the S&P 500, according to data compiled by Bernstein. The group was the second-worst performing among 10 S&P 500 industries, falling 1.7 percent this year through yesterday, as investors snapped up financial and technology shares in anticipation of an economic rebound.

“With political risk rising in Europe and U.S. economic indicators showing tepid growth, we believe investors should consider holding high yielding, low beta regulated utilities during the traditionally low return, high volatility months of May through October,” Hugh Wynne, a New York-based analyst with Bernstein, wrote in a note yesterday.

Facebook IPO

Facebook Inc. (FB) officials are touting growth prospects for the largest social network in meetings this week in New York and Boston with hundreds of would-be investors before its record initial public offering. Chief Operating Officer Sheryl Sandberg and Chief Financial Officer David Ebersman led a presentation in Boston today. They were joined yesterday in New York by Chief Executive Officer Mark Zuckerberg.

Facebook plans to raise as much as $11.8 billion in its IPO, the biggest ever for an Internet company. Zuckerberg, 27, has had to pitch his business model during Facebook’s years as a private company and probably won’t have trouble communicating the mission to prospective public investors, said Herman Leung, an analyst at Susquehanna International Group.

“It’s important to hear directly from him for investors who are about to put millions and millions of dollars into a company,” said Leung, who is based in San Francisco. “Convincing others now they should buy shouldn’t be that hard for a company that has amassed a user base of over 900 million.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Rita Nazareth in New York at rnazareth@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Nick Baker at nbaker7@bloomberg.net





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Tuesday, May 8, 2012

Facebook’s Zuckerberg Meets Would-Be Investors in New York

By Brian Womack, Sarah Frier and Lee Spears - May 8, 2012 5:08 AM GMT+0700

Facebook Inc. (FB) Chief Executive Officer Mark Zuckerberg and other officials touted growth prospects for the largest social network in a meeting with hundreds of would- be investors ahead of its record initial public offering.

Investors watched a video featuring pitches by Zuckerberg, Chief Operating Officer Sheryl Sandberg and Chief Financial Officer David Ebersman, and then asked questions of the trio, said several people who attended today’s meeting at the Sheraton New York Hotel. The executives discussed their reasons for acquiring photo-sharing site Instagram and told investors they were optimistic about potential for future gains at Facebook.

Mark Zuckerberg, chief executive officer and founder of Facebook Inc.. Photographer: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg

May 7 (Bloomberg) -- Michael Pachter, a managing director at Wedbush Securities, talks about Facebook Inc.'s leadership and planned public stock offering. He speaks with Emily Chang on Bloomberg Television's "Bloomberg West." (Source: Bloomberg)

May 7 (Bloomberg) -- Arvind Bhatia, an analyst at Sterne Agee & Leach Inc., talks about the outlook for Facebook Inc.'s initial public offering, the company and its shares. Facebook Chief Executive Officer Mark Zuckerberg is meeting would-be investors today as the largest social-networking service begins marketing its IPO, says a person with knowledge of the matter. Bhatia speaks with Betty Liu and Adam Johnson on Bloomberg Television's "Street Smart." (Source: Bloomberg)

May 4 (Bloomberg) -- Francis Gaskins, president of researcher IPOdesktop.com, talks about the outlook for Facebook Inc. He speaks with Emily Chang on Bloomberg Television's " Bloomberg West." (Source: Bloomberg)

May 7 (Bloomberg) -- Facebook Inc. Chief Executive Officer Mark Zuckerberg and other officials touted growth prospects for the largest social network in a meeting with hundreds of would-be investors ahead of its record initial public offering. Bloomberg's Jon Erlichman reports on Bloomberg Television's "Bloomberg West." (Source: Bloomberg)

May 7 (Bloomberg) -- Barton Biggs, managing partner and co-founder of Traxis Partners LP, talks about the outlook for the euro region and his investment strategy. He speaks with Betty Liu and Dominic Chu on Bloomberg Television's "In the Loop." (Source: Bloomberg)

May 4 (Bloomberg) -- Alexis Ohanian, co-founder of Reddit.com, talks about the outlook for Facebook Inc.'s initial public offering. Ohanian speaks with Scarlet Fu on Bloomberg Television's "InBusiness." (Source: Bloomberg)

Mark Zuckerberg, founder and chief executive officer of Facebook Inc., leaves the Sheraton hotel in New York. Photographer: Scott Eells/Bloomberg

Facebook plans to raise as much as $11.8 billion in its IPO, the biggest ever for an Internet company. Zuckerberg, 27, has had to pitch his business model during Facebook’s years as a private company and probably won’t have trouble communicating the mission to prospective public investors, said Herman Leung, an analyst at Susquehanna International Group.

“It’s important to hear directly from him for investors who are about to put millions and millions of dollars into a company,” said Leung, who is based in San Francisco. “Convincing others now they should buy shouldn’t be that hard for a company that has amassed a user base of over 900 million.”

Investors’ Questions

Potential investors waited in a line that snaked through the hotel’s lobby and around the side of the building for a meeting that started about an hour late. CNBC televised footage of a hooded sweatshirt-clad Zuckerberg arriving at the hotel.

“The questions were all toward long-term elements of the business,” said Samuel Schwerin, managing partner at New York- based Millennium Technology Value Partners, which oversees $1 billion, including Facebook stock it bought in 2008. Schwerin attended the meeting today, and said he’ll add more shares in the IPO. “One of the things I was surprised by was the level of interest in the fundamental elements of how the company grows and how early it is in the value-creation story for Facebook.”

The video shown today had been posted online last week and many investors had already seen it. Facebook also has arranged meetings in Boston and Palo Alto, California, this week.

Executives addressed Facebook’s slowdown in revenue growth, saying the company is now facing a larger base of users and is working to be useful to them and advertisers, according to meeting attendees. Facebook is working on new ways to make money from mobile users, and on getting partners besides game maker Zynga Inc. to use its platform and currency, which is used to buy so-called virtual goods.

Instagram Deal

Zuckerberg told investors that the $1 billion Instagram acquisition, announced last month, was contemplated over a long period. He said he had watched the company grow for a while. He said opportunities like Instagram are unique, according to several meeting attendees.

The Menlo Park, California-based company is seeking a market value of as much as $96 billion. Facebook is offering 337.4 million shares at $28 to $35 each, and is scheduled to price the offering on May 17, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The shares will be listed on the Nasdaq Stock Market under the symbol FB. Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) are leading the sale.

Facebook is offering 180 million shares, while existing owners such as Accel Partners, Goldman Sachs and Digital Sky Technologies are offering 157.4 million shares. Zuckerberg is offering 30.2 million of his 533.8 million shares, and may control about 57 percent of the voting power of Facebook’s capital stock outstanding after the offering, the filing shows.

Attendance Required

“His attendance might demonstrate that the company processed the message that Mark’s absolute voting control makes his presence, at least at some of the larger meetings, much more important than would otherwise be the case,” Lise Buyer, principal at Class V Group in Portola Valley, California, said in an e-mailed statement. “The company’s job -- Mark, Sheryl, David together -- is to convince investors that Facebook’s brightest days are ahead and that therefore, there is significant room for an increase in the company’s value.”

Sandberg, who isn’t selling in the IPO, holds 1.9 million shares.

The initial share sale would eclipse the 2004 IPO of Google Inc. (GOOG), the world’s most valuable Internet company. Google’s offering, the same year Zuckerberg helped found Facebook, raised $1.9 billion and valued the company then at about $23 billion.

To contact the reporter on this story: Brian Womack in San Francisco at bwomack1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Tom Giles at tgiles5@bloomberg.net; Jennifer Sondag at jsondag@bloomberg.net





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Google’s Android Infringed Oracle’s Java, Jury Says

By Karen Gullo - May 8, 2012 5:03 AM GMT+0700

Oracle Corp. (ORCL) can’t seek $1 billion in damages from Google Inc. (GOOG) for infringing copyrights when it developed Android software running on more than 300 million mobile devices because a jury couldn’t agree on whether it was “fair use,” a federal judge said.

A jury in San Francisco today found that Google, the largest Web-search provider, infringed Oracle’s copyrights for programming tools and nine lines of code. U.S. District Judge William Alsup said at this point Oracle can only seek damages on the nine lines, which by law would be at most $150,000.

The Android operating system trade stand at the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona. Photographer: Denis Doyle/Bloomberg

May 7 (Bloomberg) -- Pat Walravens, managing director at JMP Securities LLC, talks about a jury's decision today in the first phase of a trial in Oracle Corp.'s intellectual-property lawsuit against Google Inc. The jury found that Google infringed Oracle's copyrights for programming tools in nine lines of codes. Walravens speaks with Emily Chang on Bloomberg Television's "Bloomberg West." Cory Johnson also speaks. (Source: Bloomberg)

“There has been zero finding of liability on copyright, the issue of fair use is still in play,” Alsup said about the 12-member jury’s decision on the programming tools. He ordered the patent phase of the case to begin; damages will be taken up by the jury in the last phase of the 8-week trial.

Anyone can use copyrighted work without consent of the owner if it advances the public interest by adding something new or functional. Google attorney Robert Van Nest asked Alsup to declare a mistrial, saying the issue of whether the company is liable for infringement is directly linked to the question of whether it was fair use. Alsup gave each side until May 10 to submit arguments on that issue and didn’t say when he would rule.

Mobile Devices

Oracle alleged that Google, based in Mountain View, California, stole copyrights and patents for the Java programming language when it developed the Android operating system for mobile devices, which were released in 2007. Oracle acquired Java when it bought Sun Microsystems Inc. in 2010.

Oracle, the largest maker of database software, is seeking damages as well as a court order preventing Google from distributing Android unless it pays for a license.

“Oracle, the nine million Java developers, and the entire Java community thank the jury for their verdict in this phase of the case,” Deborah Hellinger, an Oracle spokeswoman, said in an e-mail. “The overwhelming evidence demonstrated that Google knew it needed a license.

“Every major commercial enterprise -- except Google -- has a license for Java and maintains compatibility to run across all computing platforms,” she said.

Last Word

The jury’s findings may not be the last word on infringement. While the panel was asked to decide whether Google infringed parts of Java called application programming interfaces, or APIs, the ultimate decision on whether APIs are covered by copyrights will be made by Alsup later in the case. Alsup told the jury to assume APIs are copyrightable; he can decide later that they aren’t.

Alsup must also rule on Oracle’s request for a judgment in its favor that Google infringed Java copyrights and its copying wasn’t fair use. A ruling for Oracle could set aside the jury’s decision.

“We appreciate the jury’s efforts, and know that fair use and infringement are two sides of the same coin,” Google spokesman Jim Prosser said in an e-mail. “The core issue is whether the APIs here are copyrightable, and that’s for the court to decide. We expect to prevail on this issue and Oracle’s other claims.”

Seven Notes

The jury found today that Google didn’t infringe the documentation for the 37 APIs at issue. The panel also determined that Google infringed just 1 of 3 Java codes that were in dispute. In addition, jurors concluded that while Google proved that “Sun and/or Oracle” led the company to believe it didn’t need a license for the Java technology, Google didn’t show that it relied on that knowledge when it decided not to seek a license.

The verdict came on the fifth day of deliberations in the trial, which began April 16. The jury sent Alsup seven notes during its discussions with questions, including some about the meaning of “fair use.” A May 3 note said the panel couldn’t reach a unanimous decision. Alsup ordered jurors to continue deliberations, and after learning the panel was still at an impasse, ordered them to deliver a partial verdict.

Java is a free language. Oracle argued that the parts of Java that Google used are covered by copyrights and that the search engine company was required to pay for a license to use the technology.

Operating System

Google denied infringement, saying it developed Android from scratch and that the Java elements it used aren’t covered by copyrights. Any bits of copied Java in Android constituted fair use because Google gives Android away for free to programmers and it expanded the language’s usefulness by finding a way to build a smartphone operating system with Java, something Sun and Oracle were unable to do.

Oracle argued that the Java copying was for Google’s commercial benefit -- to increase use of Google’s search engine, which generates advertising revenue -- and added nothing new to Java.

The next phase of the case is about two Java patents Oracle alleges were infringed.

Google rose $10.58 to $607.55 in Nasdaq trading in New York. Oracle fell 49 cents to $27.92.

The case is Oracle v. Google, 10-3561, U.S. District Court, Northern District of California (San Francisco).

To contact the reporter on this story: Karen Gullo in San Francisco at kgullo@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Michael Hytha at mhytha@bloomberg.net.





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Hedge Funds Bet Wrong Before Biggest Slump Since October

By Elizabeth Campbell - May 8, 2012 3:24 AM GMT+0700

Hedge funds raised bets on higher commodity prices for the first time in six weeks, just before the biggest three-day slump since October as U.S. jobs data fell short of expectations and European manufacturing contracted.

Money managers increased net-long positions across 18 U.S. futures and options by 6.9 percent to 895,240 contracts in the week ended May 1, the biggest gain since Feb. 28, Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. Bullish copper wagers surged sevenfold before prices fell for three days, and soybean bets reached the highest since at least June 2006 as the oilseed capped the biggest weekly loss since mid-January.

Stockpiles of copper monitored by the London Metal Exchange tumbled 38 percent this year to the lowest level since October 2008. Photographer: Bartek Sadowski/Bloomberg

May 7 (Bloomberg) -- Barry Knapp, head of equity strategy at Barclays Capital, talks about the outlook for U.S. markets. He speaks with Scarlet Fu on Bloomberg Television's "InBusiness." (Source: Bloomberg)

Chinese home prices fell to a 14-month low in April. Photographer: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg

The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Spot Index of 24 raw materials tumbled 4.9 percent in the three sessions ended May 4, the most since Oct. 4. Reports showed last week that services and manufacturing output shrank last month in the euro region and the U.S. added fewer jobs than forecast in April. Open interest, or contracts outstanding, across commodities fell 2 percent in the seven sessions through April 30, the longest slide since November, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

“We had some soft data points along the edges that’s taken some of the steam out of the market,” said Kelly Wiesbrock, who helps manage $1.3 billion of assets for San Francisco-based hedge fund Harvest Capital Strategies. “It’s hard to know whether this is a just a little bit of a pause, or if this is something bigger.”

Prices Slide

The S&P GSCI plunged 4.5 percent last week, the most since Dec. 16. The MSCI All-Country World Index of equities dropped 2.3 percent, and the dollar rose 1 percent against a basket of six major currencies. Treasuries returned 0.3 percent, a Bank of America Corp. index shows.

The GSCI extended its drop today, falling 0.2 percent to close at 652.27. The gauge capped a fourth straight decline, the longest slide since August.

Twenty-two of the raw materials tracked by the S&P GSCI declined last week. Gasoline plunged 7.2 percent, copper dropped 2.7 percent and soybeans fell 1 percent. On May 4, crude oil slumped below $100 a barrel for the first time since February.

Payrolls in the U.S. rose 115,000 in April, the smallest gain in six months, the Labor Department said May 4. That compared with the median estimate of 160,000 in a Bloomberg survey of 85 economists. Unemployment in the 17 countries that use the euro rose to a 15-year high and manufacturing contracted for a ninth month, reports from the European Union’s statistics office and Markit Economics on May 2 showed. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said May 3 that the economic outlook has become “more uncertain.”

Chinese Homes

Chinese home prices fell to a 14-month low in April, SouFun Holdings Ltd. (SFUN), the nation’s biggest real-estate website owner, reported May 2. The country is the biggest buyer of everything from copper to cotton to soybeans.

The outlook for commodity markets is weaker as China’s growth slows, Europe’s debt crisis intensifies and because the Federal Reserve is less likely to purchase more debt to stimulate growth, ABN Amro Bank NV said in a report May 2. The S&P GSCI rose more than 80 percent from December 2008 to June 2011 as the Fed bought $2.3 trillion of debt in two rounds of quantitative easing and held borrowing costs at a record low.

Soy Crops

Commodity prices may prove resilient as drought damages soybean crops in South America, copper inventories tumble and rains disrupt sugar supplies in Brazil, the biggest grower.

Sixteen of 24 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect soybeans to gain this week and one was neutral, the highest proportion since March 16. Prices reached $15.125 a bushel on May 2, the most since July 2008. Hedge funds lifted their wagers by 4.3 percent to 253,889 contracts, the CFTC data show.

Stockpiles of copper monitored by the London Metal Exchange tumbled 38 percent this year to the lowest level since October 2008. Jiangxi Copper Co. plans to ship metal to nearby LME warehouses to bring down prices, China’s largest producer of the metal said May 2.

“While there may be some slack from Europe, if the U.S. and emerging market economies continue to show signs of improvement, that will bode well for the commodity markets longer term,” said Nelson Louie, the global head of commodities at New York-based Credit Suisse Asset Management who helps manage $11 billion of assets.

Commodity Funds

Investors withdrew $357 million from commodity funds in the week ended May 2, according to data from Cambridge, Massachusetts-based EPFR Global, which tracks money flows. Gold and precious-metals outflows totaled $349 million, Cameron Brandt, the director of research, said by phone.

Speculators raised bets on higher crude-oil prices by 12 percent to 219,817 contracts, the biggest gain since Feb. 14, the CFTC data show. Crude oil declined 6.1 percent in New York last week.

U.S. crude stockpiles increased 2.84 million barrels to 375.9 million in the seven days ended April 27, the most since September 1990, according to an Energy Department report May 2. Domestic output gained 8,000 barrels a day to 6.12 million, the highest level since November 1999.

Wagers on copper increased sevenfold to 15,582, as prices slumped 2.7 percent, the first weekly drop in three. Bullish gold bets climbed 7.9 percent to 116,061, a four-week high. Bullion slumped 1.2 percent in New York last week on speculation that the Fed will be reluctant to buy more debt to shore up growth, easing concern that inflation will accelerate.

Chicago Futures

A measure of net-longs for 11 U.S. farm goods rose 0.1 percent to 512,512 contracts, the CFTC said. Corn holdings climbed 9 percent to 112,328, the biggest increase since March 6. Futures in Chicago dropped 0.8 percent last week, leaving prices down 4.1 percent this year.

Global food costs fell for the first time this year in April, the United Nations’ Food & Agriculture Organization said on May 3, and prices are down 10 percent from the all-time high reached in February 2011.

“Agriculture and other energy type commodities will most likely be dragged down due to concerns on slow growth of the U.S. and negative growth in Europe,” said Stephen Hammers, the Nashville, Tennessee-based chief investment officer at Compass EMP Funds, which manages about $1 billion of assets. “News is not expected to be as bright as it was last quarter.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Elizabeth Campbell in Chicago at ecampbell14@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Steve Stroth at sstroth@bloomberg.net





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No Repeating Slowdown Seen by U.S. With Banks to Housing

By Joshua Zumbrun - May 8, 2012 3:26 AM GMT+0700

The smallest gain in U.S. payrolls in six months need not presage the kind of slowdown that bedeviled the world’s largest economy for the past two years.

Rising auto sales, improving bank credit and stabilization of housing are among the signs the economy is more resilient now than it was around the same time in 2010 and 2011, according to Marisa Di Natale, an economist at Moody’s Analytics in West Chester, Pennsylvania.

Allen Zimney and his girlfriend Leila Alvarez shop for a Ford Edge at the Star Ford dealership on March 23, 2012 in Glendale, California. Photographer: Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images

May 7 (Bloomberg) -- Michelle Meyer, a senior economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, talks about the U.S. economy and real estate market. She speaks with Tom Keene on Bloomberg Television's "Surveillance Midday." (Source: Bloomberg)

May 7 (Bloomberg) -- Barry Knapp, head of equity strategy at Barclays Capital, talks about the outlook for U.S. markets. He speaks with Scarlet Fu on Bloomberg Television's "InBusiness." (Source: Bloomberg)

The average price of regular gasoline fell to $3.80 a gallon on May 3 from a 2012 high of $3.94 on April 4. Photographer: Daniel Acker/Bloomberg

Consumer spending rose at a 2.9 percent pace in the first quarter, the fastest in more than a year. Photographer: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg

“From where we sit right now, we think the economy looks fundamentally stronger,” Di Natale said. “Surveys of business and consumer confidence are better, the labor market data looks a lot better than it did last year, even some of the housing data looks better.”

Stocks and bond yields fell on May 4 after a report showing payrolls climbed 115,000 in April, less than the 160,000 median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 85 economists. The slowdown followed data showing the pace of economic expansion cooled in the first quarter, prompting concerns that another pickup in growth may again be sputtering.

In 2011, the economy was rocked by repeated shocks. Oil prices soared as a result of political upheaval in the Middle East, a tsunami and earthquake in Japan disrupted manufacturing supply chains, Europe’s debt woes deepened and U.S. lawmakers struggled to reach an accord to raise the debt ceiling.

Payroll growth slowed to an average monthly pace of 80,000 in the period from May through August 2011, from 207,000 in the first four months of the year.

Tax Credit

The expiration of a U.S. government tax credit to homebuyers contributed to a slowdown in residential construction that hurt growth in late 2010. The economy grew at an average 2.4 percent pace in the last six months of that year after expanding at a 3.9 percent pace in the first half.

Most stocks rose following the biggest weekly decline of the year, as investors weighed Francois Hollande’s election as France’s president and Greek voters flocking to anti-bailout parties. About six stocks rose for every five that fell on U.S. exchanges at the close in New York. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index increased less than 0.1 percent to 1,369.58.

Elsewhere, German factory orders climbed more than forecast in March as demand from outside the euro area helped Europe’s largest economy weather the sovereign debt crisis.

In Australia, retail sales jumped 1.8 percent in the first quarter from the final three months of last year, the strongest performance since 2009, the Bureau of Statistics said in Sydney.

Comparisons Overstated

Comparisons between the U.S. economy this year and last are overstated, said Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist for Valhalla, New York-based High Frequency Economics.

“The economic cause of the slowdown last year was much more substantial,” ” he said, adding that energy prices are already declining and Europe’s debt crisis hasn’t spread to U.S. banks. “There’s nothing I see fundamentally changed in the economy over the last couple of months.”

The average price of regular gasoline fell to $3.78 a gallon on May 6 from a 2012 high of $3.94 on April 4, according to data from AAA, the biggest U.S. auto group. The price of oil fell to $98.49 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange on May 4 from a 2012 high of $109.77 on Feb. 24.

First-time applications for unemployment benefits are also falling. Jobless claims dropped to 365,000 in the week ended April 28 from 392,000 the previous week, close to the lowest level since the economic recovery began in June 2009.

Average Jobless Claims

Claims this year have averaged 373,000, compared with 417,000 in the first four months of 2011 and 475,000 in the same period of 2010.

The current level of claims is consistent with gains in payrolls of about 200,000, Shepherdson said. He forecasts the economy will add 230,000 jobs in May.

Not everyone agrees the U.S. economy is out of the danger zone. Oil prices may yet rise again, Europe’s debt crisis is still smoldering and Congress is gridlocked over budget cuts, said Jason Schenker, president of Prestige Economics LLC in Austin, Texas.

“There are big risks out there, and those haven’t gone away,” Schenker said. “And the current state of the economy, even excluding those risks, is one of very modest job creation and modest growth.”

Still, consumer confidence is higher this year, underpinning the spending that accounts for 70 percent of the world’s largest economy. Consumer spending rose at a 2.9 percent pace in the first quarter, the fastest in more than a year.

Comfort Index

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index reached a four-year high in early April. Other measures also improved, with the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan sentiment gauge reaching a one-year high last month, and the Conference Board’s index hovering near the one-year high reached in February.

Stock-market gains, propelled by better-than-forecast corporate earnings, are helping to boost consumer wealth and optimism. The S&P’s 500 Index was up almost 9 percent this year through May 4, even after last week’s jobs report trimmed its rally.

About 70 percent of S&P 500 companies that reported results since the start of the earnings season have beaten projections, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Visa Inc. (V), the biggest payments network, said May 2 that its fiscal second-quarter profit surged 47 percent as customer spending on credit and debit cards rose. The company boosted its profit outlook and its stock is now up 16 percent this year.

Credit Products

“Our strong financial performance this quarter was fueled by continued growth of U.S. credit products, strong cross-border spending and expansion of Visa’s core business in international markets,” Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Joseph W. Saunders said in a statement.

Job gains, record low mortgage rates and cheaper properties are underpinning residential real estate. Data released last month showed better-than-estimated new-home sales and a slowdown in price declines are bolstering optimism that the market is poised for a sustainable recovery.

Warren Buffett, whose Berkshire Hathaway Inc. has more than $19 billion invested in U.S. banks, said the lenders have ample liquidity and are a class apart from European rivals.

“I would put European banks and American banks in two very different categories,” Buffett, Berkshire’s chairman and chief executive officer, said May 5 at the firm’s annual meeting in Omaha, Nebraska. “The American banking system is in fine shape.”

Loan Standards

U.S. banks “reported having eased standards on credit card, auto and other consumer loans,” according to the Federal Reserve’s survey of senior loan officers, released April 30. “Demand for consumer loans reportedly continued to increase, especially for auto loans.”

Julia Coronado, chief economist for North America at BNP Paribas in New York, said that report shows “there is some credit easing, and I would categorize it as the fading of a headwind” for the economy.

Loan growth has helped bolster U.S. auto sales that reached an annual pace of 14.4 million in April, up from an average of 12.7 million in 2011 and 11.6 million in 2010, according to data from Ward’s Automotive Group.

Stronger demand for automobiles bolstered U.S. manufacturing, which grew in April at the fastest pace in almost a year, according to Institute for Supply Management. The group’s factory index climbed to 54.8 last month, the best reading since June.

Skipping Shutdowns

Chrysler Group LLC, the biggest gainer of U.S. market share through April, said four plants will skip normally scheduled two-week midyear shutdowns to meet increased demand.

Factories in Belvidere, Illinois; Toluca, Mexico; and Detroit, and a parts factory in Toledo, Ohio, will stay open, the company said May 2 in a statement on its website. Two more plants will shut for one week instead of two, according to Auburn Hills, Michigan-based Chrysler.

“We need to build a few more vehicles, so they’re staying open,” Jodi Tinson, a company spokeswoman, said in a phone interview last week.

To contact the reporter on this story: Joshua Zumbrun in Washington at jzumbrun@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Christopher Wellisz at cwellisz@bloomberg.net



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S&P 500 Halts 3-Day Slump After Europe Vote as Banks Rise

By Rita Nazareth - May 8, 2012 3:59 AM GMT+0700

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (SPX) advanced, halting a three-day decline, as bank shares rallied after Warren Buffett said American lenders are in “fine shape” and investors weighed elections in France and Greece.

Banks had the biggest gain among 24 groups in the S&P 500 as Buffett said the nation’s lenders have “liquidity coming out of their ears” and are in better shape than European rivals. Walt Disney Co. (DIS) rose 2.1 percent as the movie “Marvel’s The Avengers” earned a record $200.3 million in its opening weekend. American International Group Inc. retreated 3 percent as the U.S. Treasury Department sold $5 billion of shares.

France's Socialist Party (PS) newly elected president Francois Hollande celebrates at the Place de la Bastille in Paris on May 7, 2012 after the announcement of the first official results of the French presidential second round. Photographer: Thomas Coex/AFP/Getty Images

May 8 (Bloomberg) -- Nick Sargen, chief investment officer at Fort Washington Investment Advisors in Cincinnati, talks about U.S. stocks and his investment strategy. Sargen also discusses France's presidential election, Europe's sovereign debt crisis, and the region's common currency. He speaks with Susan Li on Bloomberg Television's "First Up." (Source: Bloomberg)

May 7 (Bloomberg) -- Gina Martin Adams, an equity strategist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC, talks about the outlook for U.S. markets and investor sentiment. She speaks with Tom Keene on Bloomberg Television's "Surveillance Midday." (Source: Bloomberg)

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. Photographer: Michael Nagle/Bloomberg

The S&P 500 advanced less than 0.1 percent to 1,369.58 at 4 p.m. New York time, following a 2.6 percent drop in three days. The measure fell as much as 0.4 percent earlier today. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 29.74 points, or 0.2 percent, to 13,008.53. About 6.3 billion shares changed hands on U.S. exchanges today, or 5.1 percent below the three-month average.

“U.S. banks are in pretty good shape,” said Paul Zemsky, the New York-based head of asset allocation for ING Investment Management. His firm oversees $160 billion. “In addition, the perception is that European governments are not going to do anything stupid. We’re not talking about a wholesale change in fiscal policy. There was a big reaction to well-telegraphed news. It’s good to see a bounce from the lows.”

Stocks swung between gains and losses after Francois Hollande’s election as France’s president and as Greek voters flocked to anti-bailout parties. Hollande, who defeated Nicolas Sarkozy, pledged to push for less austerity. European stocks rebounded as German Chancellor Angela Merkel said she will receive Hollande with “open arms” as they work together to tackle the debt crisis.

‘On Surviving’

Barton Biggs, founder of the Traxis Partners LP hedge fund, said he isn’t adding to bearish equity bets in Europe. Biggs said on Bloomberg Television’s “In the Loop” with Betty Liu today that he continues to short German and French benchmark equity indexes, while being 70 percent net long on U.S. stocks. The region’s shared currency is “50/50 on surviving,” he said.

Voters are “signaling to their politicians that they want more stimulus and less austerity,” Biggs said today in a telephone interview. “If they don’t get it, they’re going to vote in new leaders. That’s a big deal, and I happen to think stimulus combined with reforms is the way to go.”

The S&P 500 dropped the most since December last week as a report showed employers added fewer jobs than forecast. The gauge was still up 8.9 percent in 2012 on better-than-estimated earnings. About 70 percent of S&P 500 companies that reported results since the start of the earnings season have topped projections, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Banks Rally

A measure of banks in the S&P 500 rose 1.2 percent. All 24 stocks in the KBW Bank Index (BKX) advanced as the gauge rose 1 percent. Bank of America Corp. (BAC) added 2.8 percent, the most in the Dow average, to $7.96. Wells Fargo & Co. gained 1.4 percent to $33.50.

“I would put European banks and American banks in two very different categories,” Buffett, Berkshire’s chief executive officer, said May 5 at the firm’s annual meeting in Omaha, Nebraska. “The American banking system is in fine shape. The European system was gasping for air a few months back” until getting assistance from the European Central Bank, he said.

Wall Street firms including JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) and Bank of America, emboldened after raising capital levels ahead of stricter international guidelines, are contesting efforts by U.S. policy makers to limit trading and risk. European banks have struggled amid the continent’s sovereign debt crisis and turned to the ECB for 1 trillion euros ($1.3 trillion) in three- year loans at a 1 percent interest rate.

‘The Avengers’

Walt Disney rose 2.1 percent to $43.82. “The Avengers” surpassed the previous-best opening weekend of $169.2 million in the U.S. and Canada, set last year by “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2,” researcher Hollywood.com Box-Office said yesterday in a statement.

Tyson Foods Inc. climbed 3.3 percent to $18.63. The largest U.S. meat processor reported second-quarter earnings that beat analysts’ estimates and said it will boost stock buybacks by 35 million shares.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc. (VRTX) surged 55 percent to $58.12. The maker of the first medicine to target the underlying cause of cystic fibrosis said a combination of the drug and a second therapy improved some patients’ ability to breathe in a mid- stage study.

AIG (AIG) lost 3 percent to $31.84. The Treasury is selling 163.9 million shares at $30.50 each, compared with the May 4 closing price of $32.83, the department said yesterday. The transaction reduces the Treasury’s stake in the insurer to 63 percent from 70 percent.

Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp. (CTSH) tumbled 19 percent to $56.30. The provider of consulting and outsourcing services cut its full-year sales and earnings forecasts.

To contact the reporter on this story: Rita Nazareth in New York at rnazareth@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Nick Baker at nbaker7@bloomberg.net





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Most U.S. Stocks Climb, Led by Banks, While Euro Weakens

By Michael P. Regan and Rita Nazareth - May 8, 2012 3:32 AM GMT+0700

May 7 (Bloomberg) -- Most U.S. stocks rose, led by banks, after billionaire investor Warren Buffett said American lenders are in “fine shape.” The euro slid for a sixth day and commodities fell after French Socialist Francois Hollande was elected president and Greek voters picked anti-bailout parties.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (SPX) added less than 0.1 percent to 1,369.58 at 4 p.m. in New York as six stocks gained for every five that fell on U.S. exchanges. The euro lost 0.3 percent to $1.3051 as the shared currency extended its longest losing streak since September. Ten-year French yields slipped three points to 2.80 percent and the CAC-40 Index of stocks rallied 1.7 percent. The S&P GSCI Index of commodities fell for a fourth day, declining 0.2 percent. Ten-year U.S. Treasury yields were little changed at 1.88 percent.

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on May 3, 2012. Photographer: Richard Drew/AP Photo

May 7 (Bloomberg) -- Barry Knapp, head of equity strategy at Barclays Capital, talks about the outlook for U.S. markets. He speaks with Scarlet Fu on Bloomberg Television's "InBusiness." (Source: Bloomberg)

May 8 (Bloomberg) -- Nick Sargen, chief investment officer at Fort Washington Investment Advisors in Cincinnati, talks about U.S. stocks and his investment strategy. Sargen also discusses France's presidential election, Europe's sovereign debt crisis, and the region's common currency. He speaks with Susan Li on Bloomberg Television's "First Up." (Source: Bloomberg)

May 7 (Bloomberg) -- Vasu Menon, vice president for wealth management at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. in Singapore, talks about U.S. and Asia stocks and his investment strategy. Menon speaks with Susan Li on Bloomberg Television's "First Up." (Source: Bloomberg)

May 7 (Bloomberg) -- Barton Biggs, managing partner and co-founder of Traxis Partners LP, talks about the outlook for the euro region and his investment strategy. He speaks with Betty Liu and Dominic Chu on Bloomberg Television's "In the Loop." (Source: Bloomberg)

May 7 (Bloomberg) -- Dan Scott, an analyst at Credit Suisse AG, talks about investing in Europe after the French and Greek election results. He speaks from Zurich with Linzie Janis on Bloomberg Television's "Countdown." (Source: Bloomberg)

May 7 (Bloomberg) -- Francois Hollande defeated French President Nicolas Sarkozy to become the first Socialist in 17 years to control Europe’s second-biggest economy. Hollande inherits an economy that is barely growing, with jobless claims at their highest in 12 years and a rising debt load that makes France vulnerable to the financial crisis that has rocked the euro region the past two years. Susan Li reports on Bloomberg Television's "First Up." (Source: Bloomberg)

May 7 (Bloomberg) -- Anne Stevenson-Yang, co-founder of Beijing-based J Capital Research, talks about China's financial markets and economy. She speaks with John Dawson on Bloomberg Television's "On the Move Asia." (Source: Bloomberg)

The euro fell 1.3 percent last week, the most in a month. Photographer: Simon Dawson/Bloomberg

Socialist Hollande got about 52 percent against about 48 percent for Nicolas Sarkozy Photographer: Balint Porneczi/Bloomberg

Pedestrians are reflected on an electronic stock board outside a securities firm in Tokyo, Japan. Photographer: Tomohiro Ohsumi/Bloomberg

Financial shares rose 0.7 percent as a group to lead gains among the 10 main industries in the S&P 500 after Buffett said U.S. lenders have “liquidity coming out of their ears.” Speculation that European austerity measures will be curbed grew after Hollande’s victory made him the first Socialist to take the helm of Europe’s second-biggest economy in 17 years. The Greek parliament will have three new anti-bailout parties represented.

“Every time Buffett gives the seal of approval, it helps certain stocks or segments of stocks,” Bruce McCain, who helps oversee more than $20 billion as chief investment strategist at the private-banking unit of KeyCorp in Cleveland, said in a telephone interview. “As for Europe, we’ve priced in some of what’s happened. Yet investors are not really quite sure of what to make of those trends.”

Retreat From April High

U.S. stocks rebounded from early losses, including a 1.5 percent drop in S&P 500 futures before exchanges opened in New York. The S&P 500 halted a three-day slump. The index tumbled 2.4 percent last week, its biggest drop of the year, as data on American and European labor markets boosted concern the global economy is weakening. The benchmark gauge of U.S. stocks has retreated 3.5 percent from an almost four-year high on April 2.

Walt Disney Co. (DIS) rallied 2.1 percent after “Marvel’s The Avengers” set box-office records with $200.3 million in ticket sales over the weekend. Fifth Third Bancorp and Bank of America Corp. rose almost 3 percent each, pacing gains in financial shares, after Buffett said U.S. lenders have “liquidity coming out of their ears.”

“I would put European banks and American banks in two very different categories,” Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK/A)’s chairman and chief executive officer, said May 5 at the firm’s annual meeting in Omaha, Nebraska. “The American banking system is in fine shape. The European system was gasping for air a few months back” before getting assistance from the European Central Bank.

Dow Average Retreats

Hewlett-Packard Co. and Caterpillar Inc. lost more than 1.2 percent to lead the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU) down 29.74 points to 13,008.53. The Dow and S&P 500 drifted between gains and losses for much for much of the day. American International Group Inc. (AIG) dropped 3 percent as the U.S. Treasury Department agreed to sell $5 billion of shares, with the bailed-out insurer buying $2 billion of the total.

Risk perceptions among U.S. equity and credit investors are diverging by the most since 2009 as signs of an economic slowdown spur bigger increases in prices to protect against losses in bonds than stocks. The VIX, the benchmark gauge of U.S. equity derivatives that usually rises when shares fall, closed last week at 0.032 times the level of the Markit CDX North America High Yield Index, which increases when confidence in debt issuers deteriorates, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s near the 2 1/2-year low of 0.027 times reached in March.

European Markets

European stocks rose the most in more than a week as German Chancellor Angela Merkel said she will receive French president- elect Hollande with “open arms” as they work together to tackle the debt crisis. Hollande’s platform calls for policies Merkel opposes, including increased spending and a delayed deficit-reduction effort

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index (SXXP) reversed early losses to climb 0.7 percent, even as Greece’s ASE Index (ASE) plunged 6.7 percent in its worst drop since November. National Bank of Greece (TELL) SA tumbled 8.3 percent. Roche Holding AG (ROG) fell 3.5 percent, the most since November, after abandoning development of an experimental cholesterol drug. CSM NV, the world’s biggest maker of bakery ingredients, jumped 19 percent after saying it will sell its U.S. and European bakery-supply units.

Benchmark stock indexes in Italy and Spain led gains, rallying more than 2.5 percent each. Among European bond markets, Italy’s 10-year yield lost three basis points to 5.40 percent and Spain’s increased two points to 5.76 percent.

Euro Weakens

The euro weakened against 14 of 16 major peers. The shared pared losses after dipping below $1.30 for the first time since April 16, and slid 0.5 percent versus the pound. The Dollar Index, which tracks the U.S. currency against those of six trading partners, advanced 0.1 percent, rising for a sixth day in the longest streak since September

“Incumbents took a beating across Europe this weekend in what has been widely interpreted as a backlash against austerity,” Michala Marcussen, global head of economics at Societe Generale SA in Paris, wrote in a report today. “Failure to secure a political majority to meet the terms of the second Greek program could see the country inch towards euro exit. This would in our opinion be seen as a negative event, even beyond Greece’s borders.”

Euro Bets

The euro is confounding bears who predicted a meltdown as it gets an unexpected boost from the economic and political turmoil gripping Europe. The 17-nation currency has risen about 1 percent against nine peers from this year’s low on Jan. 16, while the dollar slid 2.3 percent, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Futures traders are trimming bets that it will fall against the dollar, while options show investors are less bearish.

In other European elections, Merkel’s party had its worst election result in more than half a century in the state of Schleswig-Holstein. Austerity measures aimed at stemming Europe’s turmoil have driven economies from the Netherlands to Spain back into recession, emboldening politicians campaigning for growth.

A reduction in austerity could put more pressure on the European Central Bank to act, according to David R. Kotok, Cumberland Advisors’ chairman and chief investment officer.

“Political momentum moves toward more monetary ease,” Kotok wrote in a note to clients. “We expect some form of balance sheet expansion before the end of this year. We expect credit spreads of weaker sovereigns to widen until the ECB enters the market or discusses that it may do so.”

Cotton, silver and soybeans dropped at least 0.9 percent to lead the S&P GSCI index lower. Crude oil slipped 0.6 percent to $97.94 a barrel, the lowest settlement price in three months.

To contact the reporters on this story: Michael P. Regan in New York at mregan12@bloomberg.net; Rita Nazareth in New York at rnazareth@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Nick Baker at nbaker7@bloomberg.net





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