The Daily Forecaster: USDCAD

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FX-Forecaster | Jul 21 08 01:40 GMT |

Price: 1.0062 Bias: While 1.0078-02 caps I still look for losses to reach 0.9942 and possibly 0.9876-00 Daily Bullish Friday's comments continue to apply: The 1.0078 resistance held perfectly and has caused losses and this is where I see today's major risk. Only a break above yesterday's 1.0078 high would open the risk of follow-through higher to 1.0102 at least. Take care there but I feel we should see price extend to the 1.0140 pivot resistance. Also note resistance at 1.0165-1.0205. Medium Term Bullish 21st July: I am slightly concerned over the lack of downside progress and maybe we need to allow for 1.0102 but a clearly bullish picture is only valid if we see breach there for gains to follow-through to 1.0205 and later higher. Daily Bearish Even break of 1.0043 did generate much of a reaction, stalling at 1.0020. However, I still wish to retain a bearish view and would ideally like the 1.0078 high to remain intact. We should also note the 1.0102 resistance and while this higher range caps I still prefer a scenario looking for losses below 1.0020 for 0.9973 and 0.9942 at least. We still need to take a little care but I feel that even the 0.9942 low will break for extension to 0.9904-14 at least and possibly 0.9860-76. Medium Term Bearish 16th July: This is looking increasingly bearish and while the 0.9942 level make hold briefly the momentum is opening up potential for losses to 0.9835 and possibly 0.9790 en route the 0.9709 low. Resistance 1.0295 1.0205-38 1.0165 1.0140 1.0102 1.0078 Support 1.0036 1.0020 0.9993 0.9973 0.9942 0.9876-00 4-Hour Momentum Trailing Stop Bearish consolidation RSI High-neutral Long Term Cycles and Momentum Monthly cycles still appear to show downward potential but with weekly cycles on the rise a correction higher can be expected and I'd estimate this will complete by the New Year. For now daily cycles are pointing lower into August from where we should see gains. Cycles and Momentum Cycles Momentum Daily Lower Low-neutral Weekly Higher Neutral (declining) Monthly Lower Oversold ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS 18th July: There is a little more uncertainty over the downside target. In the extension in Wave (c) I see a 138.2% projection at 0.9860, a 161.8% projection at 0.9795 and if the 1.0047 low was actually Wave (i) then a 176.4% projection in Wave (iii) at 0.9755. My caution stems from the fact that the 1.0078 high represented a 41.4% retracement in Wave -iv- and thus we need look for projections in Wave -v-. The deepest of these at 76.4% implies a target at 0.9876 which is very close the 138.2% projection in Wave (c). Just in case yesterday's high was merely a very deep correction we should be careful at the 0.9942 where a minor Wave iii of Wave -c- sees a 176.4% projection. Thus this level will help decide which structure is being seen and guide us to later movements. Ian Copsey FX-Forecaster Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure The Daily Forecaster is an analytical tool only and is not intended to replace individual research. The service is offered as an opinion on the current state of the market with anticipated trading signals but not recommendations. The information provided in The Daily Forecaster should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your trading/investment decisions. Ian Copsey is merely providing this service for your general information. No representation is being made that any view or opinion will guarantee profits or not result in losses from trading. In addition any projections or views of the market provided may not prove to be accurate. The opinions are subject to change without notice. Opinions or views expressed in The Daily Forecaster are not meant to be either investment advice or a solicitation or recommendation to establish market positions. Ian Copsey will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this service. The information contained is private and may not be distributed or shared.