The Daily Forecaster: USDCHF

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FX-Forecaster | Jul 25 08 04:33 GMT |

Price: 1.0360 Bias: Look for the correction lower to reach 1.0270-00 before rallying back above 1.0403-10 Daily Bullish Yesterday was pretty much a 'nothing' day but the underlying analysis stands in that I feel we need to see a slightly deeper correction before the upside can follow-through. This corection shoudl reach the 1.0270-00 area before rebounding higher. Also keep note of the 1.0403-10 resistance and only directly above here would send price more directly to the 1.0446 and more likely the 1.0477-92 resistance which should cause a further correction. Next resistance is found at 1.0535-72. Medium Term Bullish 24th July: Additional gains are beginning to look more bullish. While the 1.0267-98 area supports there is continued risk for gains to extend above 1.0398 for 1.0477-92 and probably 1.0572. This should provide a brief pullback before gains to around the 1.0623 high. Daily Bearish Although we did see minor gains to 1.0403 and noting resistance also at 1.0410, I feel the first part of the day should be bearish with loss of 1.0350 and then 1.0333 maintaining the downward momentum for 1.0300 at least and 1.0270 at most. I suspect this support area will hold for a stronger reaction higher. Also note quite firm pivot support at 1.0250 and only below here would indicate stronger losses to 1.0207 and below. Medium Term Bearish 24th July: Yesterday's gains do seem to argue more strongly for a bullish stance. Therefore to reverse this we shall need loss of 1.0267 initially - then 1.0204 and 1.0102-39. Resistance 1.0623 1.0572 1.0535 1.0477-92 1.0446 1.0403-10 Support 1.0350 1.0333 1.0301 1.0270 1.0250 1.0136-60 4-Hour Momentum Trailing Stop Bearish trend RSI Overbought Long Term Cycles and Momentum Monthly cycles still appear to reflect long term losses. However, for now the weekly cycles have a window of strength through to year end although daily cycles suggest we may see sideways trending into the next low by around early September Cycles and Momentum Cycles Momentum Daily Reviewing Neutral - rising Weekly Higher Neutral but declining Monthly Lower Oversold ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS 24th July: Yesterday's gains make it tough to retain a bearish stance. Indeed, I am going even further to suggest that yesterday's 1.0398 high was the peak in Wave (a) of Wave (iii) only. This implies a 38.2%-50% retracement in Wave (b) around 1.0267-98 from where Wave (c) of Wave (iii) should move to the 138.2% projection in Wave (iii) at 1.0477-88 and quite probably even further to the 176.4% projection at 1.0572. Overall this will mean that the 1.0010 low was a 61.8% retracement in Wave (x) and this implies gains well above 1.0623. Only an earlier break below 1.0267 would undermine this structure and suggest that the 1.0398 high was merely a deep Wave efc of an alternative Wave (x) and therefore suggest a Wave (a) back to the 1.0010 low. Ian Copsey FX-Forecaster Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure The Daily Forecaster is an analytical tool only and is not intended to replace individual research. The service is offered as an opinion on the current state of the market with anticipated trading signals but not recommendations. The information provided in The Daily Forecaster should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your trading/investment decisions. Ian Copsey is merely providing this service for your general information. No representation is being made that any view or opinion will guarantee profits or not result in losses from trading. In addition any projections or views of the market provided may not prove to be accurate. The opinions are subject to change without notice. Opinions or views expressed in The Daily Forecaster are not meant to be either investment advice or a solicitation or recommendation to establish market positions. Ian Copsey will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this service. The information contained is private and may not be distributed or shared.