The Daily Forecaster: AUDUSD

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FX-Forecaster | Aug 18 08 02:40 GMT |

Price: 0.8713 Bias: While 0.8732-50 caps I still feel the downside has more risk for 0.8611 initially and eventually 0.8511-26 Daily Bullish Losses developed as expected to reach 0.8611. The pullback from there has been quite deep and with bullish divergences in the 4-hour chart we should watch the 0.8732-50 resistance carefully. If this breaks then it could mean that we'll see a deeper pullback - possibly even a larger reversal. If seen then look for gains to extend to 0.8794 - take care at this corrective high as it should cause a reaction. Only above 0.8800 would maintain the upside for 0.8850 and above. Medium Term Bullish 13th August: Losses continue unabated and it may well mean that we wait for the 0.8526-42 area to be tested from where I feel a stronger recovery is likely. Daily Bearish Losses stalled just above the 0.8590 low and while the pullback has been strong and there is a bullish divergence in the 4-hour chart, there is none in the hourly. I therefore suspect that the 0.8732-50 care will cap and loss of 0.8651 would maintain losses for 0.8590-11 again. Only direct breach would open the way for losses to the 0.8526-42 area Medium Term Bearish 18th August: Losses have been seen as expected and have reached 0.8590 and while 0.8750 caps the downside should still remain dominant for the 0.8526 target. However, at this point we should see a larger recovery. Resistance 0.8951 0.8850 0.8828 0.8794 0.8750 0.8732 Support 0.8690 0.8651 0.8611 0.8590 0.8553-71 0.8511-26 4-Hour Momentum Trailing Stop Bullish trend RSI Bullish divergence Long Term Cycles and Momentum The monthly cycles seem to be findng a high and this seems to be confirmed by bearish divergences across the board. Daily cycles are however at a high and thus the main direction for now seems lower. Cycles and Momentum Cycles Momentum Daily Declining Oversold Weekly Declining Oversold Monthly Finding a high Bearish divergence ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS 14th August: The wave structure has remained totally confusing but with the 0.8511 major corrective low now within reach I suspect we are close to the end of a 5 wave decline. I am not 100% comfortable with the wave count shown but even so, the 76.4% projection in Wave -v- at 0.8526 does seem to present a target that seems irresistible. In the meantime we should see the 0.8802-25 area cap for losses to remain on their way to target. 15th August: The only barrier to the 0.8526-42 target is an earlier corrective bounce from the 0.8590 low. This still maintains the target at 0.8511-26 which is a major weekly corrective low that should normally provide a reaction higher. 18th August: The 0.8611 low appears to be Wave a of Wave v of Wave c in Wave -c- of Wave -v-… Thus while the correction in Wave b is quite deep at 0.8732 (76.4% at 0.8750) I still feel we should see the downside maintained to the target area. Ian Copsey FX-Forecaster Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure The Daily Forecaster is an analytical tool only and is not intended to replace individual research. The service is offered as an opinion on the current state of the market with anticipated trading signals but not recommendations. The information provided in The Daily Forecaster should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your trading/investment decisions. Ian Copsey is merely providing this service for your general information. No representation is being made that any view or opinion will guarantee profits or not result in losses from trading. In addition any projections or views of the market provided may not prove to be accurate. The opinions are subject to change without notice. Opinions or views expressed in The Daily Forecaster are not meant to be either investment advice or a solicitation or recommendation to establish market positions. Ian Copsey will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this service. The information contained is private and may not be distributed or shared.