Oil May Fall on Consumption Drop, OPEC Output, Survey Shows

By Mark Shenk

Aug. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil may fall next week as fuel consumption in the U.S. and other developed countries declines and OPEC increases production.

Thirteen of 29 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News, or 45 percent, said prices will drop through August 8. Seven of the respondents, or 24 percent, said oil will rise and nine forecast little change. Last week 46 percent expected a decline.

U.S. fuel demand averaged 20.2 million barrels a day during the past four weeks, down 2.4 percent from a year earlier, the Energy Department said July 30. Demand among the 30-member Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development will fall 480,000 barrels to 48.46 million barrels a day this year, the department said in a July 8 report.

The OECD includes the richest economies, including the U.S., Japan, Germany and France.

Daily oil shipments by members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will climb 0.6 percent in the four weeks to Aug. 16, Halifax, England-based Oil Movements said yesterday. Saudi Arabia is responsible for the gain, the consultant said.

The ``fundamentals of weak OECD demand and rising OPEC production are likely to weigh further on prices in the weeks and months ahead,'' said Tim Evans, an energy analyst for Citi Futures Perspective in New York.

Crude oil for September delivery rose 82 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $124.08 a barrel so far this week on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures reached $147.27 a barrel on July 11, the highest since trading began in 1983.

The oil survey has correctly predicted the direction of futures 49 percent of the time since its start in April 2004.

Bloomberg's survey of oil analysts and traders, conducted
each Thursday, asks for an assessment of whether crude oil
futures are likely to rise, fall or remain neutral in the coming
week. The results were:

RISE NEUTRAL FALL
7 9 13

To contact the reporter on this story: Mark Shenk in New York at mshenk1@bloomberg.net.