By Angela Greiling Keane
Aug. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Labor Day weekend holiday travel probably will decline as the U.S. summer driving season comes to a close the way it began, curbed by high gasoline prices and a weak economy.
The number of people taking trips of at least 50 miles from home today through Sept. 1 will fall 0.9 percent from a year earlier to 34.4 million, according to AAA, the largest U.S. motorist group. That would make Labor Day the third straight U.S. holiday with a decline.
Gasoline averaged $3.66 a gallon on Aug. 27, up 33 percent from a year earlier, according to AAA. The drop from the July 15 record of $4.11 wasn't enough to spur Labor Day travel. Falling home values and tighter credit also are damping consumer spending.
``Some of it is hangover from the gasoline prices,'' said Kenneth McGill, the Eddystone, Pennsylvania-based managing director for travel and tourism at consulting firm Global Insight. Changes in consumer behavior ``started earlier in the summer when prices were north of $4 a gallon,'' he said.
``I usually like to go to the beach for an end-of-summer hurrah,'' said Lisa Cannon, 45, of Washington. This year, because of construction delays on the Chesapeake Bay Bridge and the cost of gasoline, the owner of an interior-decorating business turned down an invitation to visit her parents in New Jersey with her 3-year-old daughter.
First Decline Since 2006
The 320,000 fewer people traveling for the Labor Day weekend would be the first such decline since 2006, AAA said. The group expects about 28.6 million travelers, or 83 percent of the total, to go by automobile, with a 1.1 percent drop for the category.
The total decline for Labor Day may be narrower than the 1.3 percent drop AAA has estimated for the July 4th holiday weekend and about the same as the decrease for the Memorial Day period, considered the start of the summer season. AAA, based in Heathrow, Florida, doesn't have final numbers yet for the two previous holidays, spokesman Troy Green said.
Julia Ernst, 39, said her family will be using its Toyota Prius car rather than their bigger Chevrolet Tahoe sport-utility vehicle for a holiday trip to southeastern Pennsylvania from their home in Herndon, Virginia.
``When we do camping trips we use the Tahoe to load all of our gear,'' she said. ``But the gas prices have been horrendous, so it takes a huge chunk out of the vacation budget. We have to be very frugal in other ways.''
Ernst, an adjunct professor at Georgetown University's law school in Washington, will travel about 300 miles round trip with her husband and 4-year-old daughter. That's fewer than the 888- mile average, according to AAA. The group didn't survey travelers on how far they planned to go before this year.
Fewer Air Travelers
AnnMarie Stockmeyer, 37, is one of the 12 percent of Labor Day travelers that AAA said will go by plane. Air travel for the holiday will fall 4.5 percent, as passengers pay fares that are 15 percent higher than a year earlier, AAA said.
Stockmeyer, who lives in Washington and is a child advocate for a nonprofit group, flew yesterday to Tucson, Arizona, with her 12- and 9-year-old sons to retrieve their 1-year-old sister, who has been staying with Stockmeyer's parents since July.
Stockmeyer had little choice about the almost 4,500-mile round trip, which cost about $1,100 for three plane tickets, because her daughter is too young to fly alone.
``If it was the 12-year-old, he'd be flying back by himself,'' she said.
Travel by train and other modes will increase 13 percent from a year earlier, benefiting from the increased costs for auto and plane trips, AAA said.
`Economic Headwinds'
The holiday weekend comes as the number of Americans collecting unemployment insurance rose in the week ended Aug. 23 to the highest level in almost five years. U.S. retail sales declined in July for the first time in five months, the Commerce Department said Aug. 13.
``We face these economic headwinds, but travel is an amazingly resilient activity,'' McGill said. ``People will travel until they absolutely cannot.''
Norma Moran, 31, of Washington, is pinching pennies by taking public transit to her job as a financial analyst and is applying the savings to a trip with her toddler daughter to Colonial Beach, Virginia. They will share a rented house with five other families, splitting costs to make it affordable.
``If the destination was farther than 90 minutes, I would not consider making the trip,'' Moran said.
To contact the reporter on this story: Angela Greiling Keane in Washington at agreilingkea@bloomberg.net
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