Battleground Ohio Still Election's Big Prize: Albert R. Hunt

Commentary by Albert R. Hunt

Sept. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Ohio is ground zero in the unpredictable 2008 U.S. presidential election. The Buckeye State is the closest thing to a must-win for both John McCain and Barack Obama.

Several days of interviewing a dozen top Democratic and Republican politicians underscores what voters say and polls show: Ohio is dead even and saturated with attention. (The interviews were conducted before Friday night's debate).

There is a case that Obama, who needs to win 18 more electoral votes than Democrats captured in 2004, can win without Ohio's 20 electors, assuming he holds all the states that voted Democratic four years ago. He could then carry Florida or some combination of Iowa, Virginia, Colorado and New Mexico. That leaves little margin for error.

Republican McCain has even less. His only credible winning scenario, without taking Ohio, is to carry every other Republican-leaning state and pick up New Hampshire. That's a long shot.

Republicans and Democrats say the intensely contested 2004 Ohio presidential race, where George W. Bush edged out Democrat John Kerry, is the starting model for this election. The dynamics feature the economy -- a devastating picture in many parts of the state even before the recent financial crisis -- and an ingrained cultural conservatism.

``If this were just about the economy, Barack Obama would win by a huge margin,'' says Ohio's popular Democratic governor, Ted Strickland, acknowledging the cultural challenges Obama faces in connecting with working-class Democrats and rural voters.

Mass Layoffs

Economic issues resonate with a ferocity in the state. The jobless rate is 7.4 percent, the highest in 16 years and the sixth-highest in the country; almost half a million Ohioans are out of work.

The manufacturing base, which long dominated the state, has been shattered, with 758,000 fewer jobs than 10 years ago. This year alone, there have been 117 company layoffs involving 50 or more employees.

Republicans note the economy wasn't terrific four years ago either -- the jobless rate was 6.2 percent -- and say that election is instructive. Kerry focused on the major population centers and achieved all his targets, running up huge victories in Cleveland, Columbus, Toledo, Akron and other cities.

With brilliant grassroots organizing and micro-targeting, though, the Bush campaign did even better in 72 of the 88 generally less-populous Ohio counties. Almost 900,000 more people voted than in the previous election, and this was one of the few places where a larger franchise benefited the Republicans, with Bush winning the state by 118,000 out of 5.7 million votes.

`Better This Time'

``We did a good job in 2004; we're better this time,'' says Bob Bennett, the longtime Ohio Republican Party chairman. ``I'm not over-confident, but I feel confident about this one.''

Bennett and other Republicans say that with McCain's appeal to independent voters, and his selection of Sarah Palin as a running mate to energize the conservative and rural base, the ticket can match Bush's 2004 performance.

One new element is no-fault absentee voting, which means as many as a third of Ohio citizens will cast ballots before Election Day. Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner predicts overall turnout will ``easily'' exceed 80 percent of registrants, suggesting three-quarters of a million more voters than the huge outpouring last time.

`Elephant In Room'

Republicans concede that Obama will do better in urban areas, pulling out blacks and younger voters. Still, they say they doubt that will be enough to offset their margins, especially in southern Ohio counties.

The largely unspoken issue is race. Strickland takes on the matter directly, asking voters: ``What's the elephant in the room'' in this election?

He says when the subject is raised it usually produces a constructive conversation about racial hopes and fears.

Strickland, who two years ago swept most Ohio counties in winning the governorship and backed Hillary Clinton in her victory over Obama in the March presidential primary, believes it's necessary to address that ``elephant.'' He has also told the Obama campaign to use Bill Clinton heavily in southern Ohio.

The governor's own top political operative, Aaron Pickerell, is running the Obama campaign in Ohio, and coordination seems much better than in the past.

Discarding `Old Playbook'

``We've thrown out the old playbook,'' says Ohio Democratic Party Chairman Chris Redfern, ``where we would focus on a few big counties, light a candle, and hope for the best. John Kerry's people never really got Ohio.''

There's an Obama presence in every county, Redfern says, with six times as many paid Democratic workers as four years ago, most of whom reside where they are campaigning, and countless volunteers.

``We're no longer ceding entire regions of the state,'' Redfern says.

Another plus for the Democrats: There's no ballot initiative this November like the 2004 ban on gay marriage, which brought out many culturally conservative voters.

Thus, the Democrats figure Obama will turn out a huge African-American vote, many younger and more independent-minded voters. And while he may lose most of the smaller counties, he'll run as well or slightly better there than the ticket did four years ago. This time, they think an expanded franchise will help Obama.

Economy the Focus

The driving force in that scenario remains the economy. ``Ohio comes down to the economy versus race,'' says Timothy Hagan, a Democrat and Cuyahoga County commissioner.

If you doubt the stakes, look at the schedule. McCain announced his choice of Palin in Dayton, and rarely does a day pass without a presidential or vice presidential candidate in Cleveland, Columbus, Lima, Zanesville, Wilmington or Steubenville. Everyone sees it going to the wire.

``It may be well into election night,'' says Kevin Dewine, the deputy Republican Party chairman, ``before anyone calls Ohio.''

(Albert R. Hunt is the executive editor for Washington at Bloomberg News. The opinions expressed are his own.)

To contact the writer of this column: Albert R. Hunt in Washington at ahunt1@bloomberg.net