Crude Oil May Fall Amid Lower U.S. Fuel Demand, Survey Shows

By Mark Shenk

Sept. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil may fall next week on concern that U.S. fuel consumption will weaken because of lower economic growth.

Fourteen of 29 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News, or 48 percent, said prices will decrease through Oct. 3. Eight of the respondents, or 28 percent, said oil will rise and seven said prices will be little changed. Last week 47 percent expected futures to increase.

U.S. fuel demand averaged 19.5 million barrels a day during the past four weeks, the lowest since October 2003, the Energy Department said in a Sept. 24 report. Sales of new homes in the U.S. fell in August to a 17-year low and orders for durable goods dropped more than forecast, government reports showed yesterday.

``Concern about economic growth is weighing on the market,'' said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research in Winchester, Massachusetts. ``Unfortunately, the end of the economic crisis isn't in sight.''

The survey was completed before Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd said Republicans and Democrats have agreed on a ``set of principles'' for a financial-rescue package.

Crude oil for November delivery rose $5.27, or 5.1 percent, to $108.02 a barrel so far this week on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures have fallen 27 percent since touching $147.27 a barrel on July 11, the highest since trading began in 1983.

The oil survey has correctly predicted the direction of futures 49 percent of the time since its start in April 2004.

     Bloomberg's survey of oil analysts and traders, conducted
each Thursday, asks for an assessment of whether crude oil
futures are likely to rise, fall or remain neutral in the coming
week. The results were:

                   RISE      NEUTRAL    FALL
                     8          7        14

To contact the reporter on this story: Mark Shenk in New York at mshenk1@bloomberg.net.