Putin Gives Up on Bush, Complicating Iran, North Korea Efforts

By Bill Varner

Sept. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Russia is intent on mending ties with the U.S. once President George W. Bush leaves the office on Jan. 20, prompting unprecedented interest in this year's presidential campaign, its UN ambassador said in an interview.

In the meantime, Russia is unlikely to back new efforts to curtail the nuclear ambitions of Iran and North Korea.

``There has been a standard in the history of Soviet and now Russian-American relations of common wisdom that there is not much difference between administrations; now that is not the case,'' said Ambassador Vitaly Churkin, the last spokesman for the Soviet Union's foreign ministry.

``The problem is there'' because of the dispute over Russian actions in Georgia, Churkin added before today's start of speeches by world leaders at the United Nations General Assembly. ``But I don't think there is irreversible damage. We do not want to see our formats of cooperation disrupted.''

Russia's military incursion into Georgia, a U.S. ally, caused a rift between leaders in Moscow and Washington unseen since the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. As Bush gives his final United Nations speech today, Churkin and his bosses -- Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and President Dmitry Medvedev --- will be more focused on whether he will be replaced by Democratic Senator Barack Obama or Republican Senator John McCain.

``There is no basis for healing between Bush and the Russians,'' said Ian Bremmer, president of the Eurasia Group, a New York-based political risk-analysis firm for businesses. ``The international community will respond well to anyone who comes in after the Bush administration.''

Russian Favorite

While Churkin wouldn't express a preference, polling shows that Russians overwhelmingly favor Obama. Both candidates have condemned Russia over the August war, which followed Georgia's attempt to retake the pro-Moscow breakaway region of South Ossetia.

Obama has expressed support for engaging adversaries with diplomacy and handling world problems with a multilateral approach. McCain, meanwhile, has taken a harder line against Moscow, declaring ``we are all Georgians'' at one point and calling for Russia's eviction from the Group of Eight industrial nations. McCain has also proposed a ``league of democracies'' that would supplement UN efforts.

``The next administration has to find a way to reengage Russia,'' said James Goldgeier, an analyst at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington. ``Both candidates have been supportive of Georgia, but Russia has to be concerned about McCain saying they should be kicked out of the G-8'' forum of major industrial nations.

100 Leaders

Bush will join more than 100 world leaders in addressing the UN General Assembly this week. French President Nicolas Sarkozy, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili are among the leaders set to be joined in New York by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, who will head his nation's delegation.

The week will include talks involving the U.S. and Russia on how the Security Council deals with Iran's defiance of demands to halt the enrichment of uranium and offer proof its nuclear intentions are peaceful. Last week, Russia agreed only to consider the possibility of further sanctions against Iran.

``We are not going to see any more sustained cooperation from Russia on Iran'' until after Bush leaves office, Bremmer said.

The U.S. and China need Russia's help to confront a major threat to a diplomatic effort to end North Korea's nuclear-arms program: the regime's decision to backtrack on the planned dismantling of its Yongbyon plutonium-making facility.

France's Role

Zalmay Khalilzad, the U.S. ambassador to the UN, said there's ``no way to sugarcoat'' the seriousness of the rift with Russia. He added that Bush and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice would try in meetings with Russian officials this week to find common ground. Sarkozy will do his part to ease the friction, playing the type of mediating role that produced a cease-fire in Georgia, France's UN ambassador, Jean-Maurice Ripert, said.

McCain's hard line on Russia has worried other countries' UN ambassadors, some of whom worry that his ``league of democracies'' would sideline the world body.

``These groups are always aimed at keeping people out,'' South African Ambassador Dumisani Kumalo said. ``We don't need anything that creates more division.''

$2.6 Billion

Obama has expressed clearer backing for the UN. He has said he would pay $2.6 billion in overdue U.S. dues and wouldn't accept acrimony with Russia as ``a preordained outcome,'' according to Susan Rice, a senior foreign policy adviser to his campaign.

``It is in the interests of the U.S. for Russia to play a responsible role in international institutions,'' Rice said.

A Russian Public Opinion Research Center poll earlier this month showed that 27 percent of Russians support Obama compared with 6 percent for McCain. In the halls of UN headquarters, the support is more subtle.

Ambassador Ricardo Arias of Panama, a current member of the UN Security Council, offered the type of carefully couched support for Obama that other diplomats privately share.

``Diplomacy is dealing with your enemies; the rest is cocktail parties,'' Arias said, referring to Obama's willingness to engage in direct talks with U.S. foes such as Iran and Syria. ``This problem with Russia has to be healed, and the UN is the best venue for that to happen, but we need a new approach.''

U.S. and U.K. envoys say they've seen a hardening in Russian positions since the Georgia war. Russia blocked a proposed Security Council statement pressing Myanmar's military regime to move toward democracy and irritated the U.S. by pushing for an expression of concern for civilian deaths in Afghanistan in a resolution that extended the mandate of Western security forces.

Rice, while criticizing Russia's ``worsening pattern of behavior'' in a Sept. 18 speech in Washington, said she didn't want the UN Security Council to be ``reverting to the gridlocked institution that it was during the Cold War'' with the U.S. and Russia using their veto power over council actions.

To contact the reporter on this story: Bill Varner at the United Nations at wvarner@bloomberg.net