Deutsche Bank Cuts Metal Price Forecasts on Economic Outlook

By Glenys Sim

Oct. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Deutsche Bank AG lowered its price forecasts for copper and aluminum because of ``rapid deterioration'' in the outlook for the global economy.

Copper will average $7,117 a metric ton this year, down 7 percent from a previous estimate, the bank said in an Oct. 17 report. The metal will average $4,161 a ton in 2009 and $4,740 in 2010, down 37 and 31 percent respectively from earlier predictions.

The bank cut its forecast for aluminum this year by 4 percent to $2,605 a ton. The forecast for next year was reduced 29 percent to $1,874 and by 24 percent to $2,249 in 2010.

Deutsche pared its forecasts for global gross domestic product growth to 1.2 percent in 2009, compared with a prediction of 3.4 percent made four months ago.

``We believe energy and industrial metal prices are the most exposed to further price weakness in this environment,'' analysts led by London-based Michael Lewis wrote.

The bank cut it prediction for nickel by 6 percent to $21,289 a ton in 2008, 43 percent to $10,279 in 2009, and 31 percent to $13,338 in 2010. Zinc may average 6 percent below the previous forecast at $1,889 a ton this year, 30 percent lower at $1,190 next year, and 33 percent less at $1,543 in 2010.

Lead forecasts were reduced by 5 percent to $2,134 a ton this year, 32 percent to $1,213 next year, and 12 percent to $1,257 in 2010. The bank lowered its tin forecast by 5 percent to $18,313 a ton this year, 24 percent to $12,693 in 2009, and 12 percent to $11,684 in 2010.

To contact the reporter for this story: Glenys Sim in Singapore at gsim4@bloomberg.net