Australian Economic Index Falls as Recession Looms

By Gemma Daley

Nov. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Australia's leading economic index fell in September, signaling the nation may slip into a recession, ending 17 straight years of economic expansion.

The leading index, a gauge of future economic growth, fell 1 percent to 258.4 points, Westpac Banking Corp. and the Melbourne Institute said in Sydney today. The annualized growth rate of the index slowed to 1.1 percent from 2.5 percent in August.

``This is a disturbing fall in the growth rate,'' said Bill Evans, Sydney-based chief economist at Westpac. ``Growth in the first half of 2009 will be barely positive, with a decent risk the first two quarters of growth in 2009 could be negative.''

The central bank has reduced the benchmark interest rate by two percentage points to 5.25 percent since early September in the most aggressive round of reductions since a recession in 1991. It cut its 2008 economic growth forecast last week to 1.5 percent from 2 percent as Australia becomes embroiled in the global financial turmoil.

Policy makers will cut the rate by another half point on Dec. 2 to 4.75 percent, according to 13 of 22 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News last week. The rest expect reductions of between 75 and 100 basis points.

Government Handouts

Falling share markets, including a 43 percent plunge in the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index this year, and declining house prices have slashed household net worth by 8 percent since the start of 2008, the bank said yesterday in minutes of its November meeting.

Australia's economy expanded at the slowest pace in more than three years in the second quarter as consumers cut spending for the first time since 1993.

The government has announced A$10.4 billion ($6.8 billion) in grants to pensioners, families and first home buyers to boost the economy as the global financial crisis freezes credit and damps growth.

Australian business confidence plunged in October to a record low, consumers were pessimistic in November for a 10th straight month and house prices dropped in the third quarter by the most since 1978.

Job Losses

Sydney-based Babcock & Brown Ltd., the worst performing stock on the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index this year, today said it will accelerate job cuts and separate its businesses to avoid defaulting on A$3.1 billion of debt.

Westpac's leading index tracks eight gauges of economic activity, such as company profits and productivity, to give an indication of how the economy will perform over the next three to nine months.

Westpac's coincident index, a measure of the current state of the economy, was largely unchanged in September at 236 points. The annual growth rate of the coincident index was 2 percent, lower than its long-term trend of 3.7 percent.

To contact the reporter on this story: Gemma Daley in Canberra at gdaley@bloomberg.net