Wakeup Call: Stocks Still Higher Across The Board... But For How Long?

Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by Saxo Bank | Nov 28 08 08:19 GMT |

Government fixed income is not buying the stocks going higher story and our Top100 Global Stocks CDS Price index is unchanged a record high levels. Calendar Economic Data Releases Country Name Time (GMT) Expectation Prior Comment SW GDP QoQ (3Q) 08:30 -0.2% 0.0% EC Unemployment Rate (OCT) 10:00 7.6% 7.5% SZ KOF Swiss Leading Indicator (NOV) 10:30 0.20 0.35 Earnings Releases Country Name Time (GMT) Expectation Prior Comment GE ThyssenKrupp AG n/a 1,167 What's going on? Stocks still higher across the board… but for how long? Government Fixed Income is not buying the story and our Top100 Global Stocks CDS Price Index is unchanged at record high levels. Commodities showing a rebound as well, but not in energy products. Basic Materials doing well. Today's Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate could be important, but we expect a relatively quiet day. FX FX Daily stance Comment EURUSD 0 Prefer downside, but thin market. 1.2800 is key support short term. 1.2930-70 is resistance. EURJPY 0 Prefer downside eventually. 123.25/50 is first resistance. 122.00 basic support. USDJPY 0 Looks heavy, but still in range. 94.50 first key support. 95.80 is resistance GBPUSD 0 May have topped recently at 1.5533. Needs <> USDCAD + Might wait to move until next week. Break above 1.2420 area is tech trigger. Equities Equities Daily stance Comment DAX + Sell into rallies. Sell at the 4675-4700 levels, target 4550 initially, 4450 finally. S/L at 4750. FTSE + Sell into rallies. Sell at the 4225-4250 levels, target 4142 initially, 4050 finally. S/L at 4350. S&P500 + Nasdaq100 + Nikkei225 + Futures Commodities Daily Stance Comment Gold (XAUUSD) 0 Tight range. Buy above 818. Sell below 812. Keep a $6 stop. Silver (XAGUSD) 0 Tight range. Buy above 10.40. Sell below 10.20. Keep a 20 cents stop. Oil (WBSF9) + Some risk-willingness. Buy at the break of 55 with a stop at 54. Target 58. Analysis Disclosure & Disclaimer Saxo Bank A/S shall not be responsible for any loss arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained. The contents of this publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Saxo Bank that clients will profit from the strategies herein or that losses in connection therewith can or will be limited. Trades in accordance with the recommendations in an analysis, especially leveraged investments such as foreign exchange trading and investment in derivatives, can be very speculative and may result in losses as well as profits, in particular if the conditions mentioned in the analysis do not occur as anticipated. Saxo Bank utilizes financial information providers and information from such providers may form the basis for an analysis. Saxo Bank accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any information herein contained. Any recommendations and other comments in Saxo Bank's analysis derive from objective fundamental macro economical and company specific calculations, statistical and technical analysis, and subjective general market assessment. If an analysis contains recommendations to buy or sell a specific financial instrument, such recommendation should be seen as Saxo Bank's opinion that the specific instrument will respectively outperform the relevant market or underperform compared to the market. Saxo Bank's recommendations should statistically correspond to an even distribution between buy and sell recommendations. The recommendations may expire promptly due to market volatility and in general, Saxo Bank does not anticipate its recommendations to be valid more than one month. An analysis will be updated if and only if a market development or other issues relevant to the analysis render a new analysis on the same topic relevant. Saxo Bank's analysis does not cover any specific financial product over time but only products which Saxo Bank's strategy team finds it important to cover at any given point in time. In order to prevent conflicts of interest, Saxo Bank has established appropriate business procedures, incl. procedures applicable to research and analysis to ensure objective research reports. Saxo Bank's research reports have not been discussed with the parties, e.g. issuers of securities, mentioned in the analysis. Saxo Bank is under supervision by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority. Saxo Bank does not engage in corporate finance activities and accordingly, Saxo Bank's employees, incl. the persons responsible for an analysis, do not receive remuneration associated with investment banking transactions.