Euro May Rise to $1.50 in Two Weeks on Fibonacci, Forecast Says

By Stanley White

Dec. 22 (Bloomberg) -- The euro may rise to $1.50 in the next two weeks based on trading patterns, said Pak Lai Ng, a technical analyst at Forecast Singapore Pte.

The 15-nation currency is poised to gain as its relative strength index is above 50, Ng said, showing the euro has the momentum to continue this month’s 10 percent advance. The euro may also rise as its moving average convergence/divergence chart is showing a buy signal, he said. Resistance at $1.50 is near a 150 percent projection of the euro’s rise from its Dec. 4 low of $1.2550 to its Dec. 16 high of $1.4147, according to a series of numbers known as the Fibonacci sequence.

“The MACD chart is firm so we’re in a bullish trend,” Ng said. “We may see the occasional pullback. That’s likely to be only a correction before we start heading higher again.”

The euro bought $1.4012 as of 7:01 a.m. in London from $1.3912 late in New York on Dec. 19. It reached an 11-week high of $1.4719 on Dec. 18.

The 14-day relative strength index, a comparison of the magnitude of gains and losses, can be used to show whether a trend has gone too far. MACD charts can indicate whether a price shift is a change in trend or a short-term deviation by comparing moving averages based on nine-, 12- and 26-day periods.

Fibonacci projections use past prices to determine potential moves in the future. Other levels are 100 percent and 161.8 percent.

In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast changes in a security, commodity, currency or index.

To contact the reporter on this story: Stanley White in Tokyo at swhite28@bloomberg.net