Economic Calendar

Friday, December 12, 2008

USD Slides As Demand Dries Up

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Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by Easy Forex | Dec 12 08 01:51 GMT |

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) in a very important trading day, key levels against multiple currencies were broken as USD selling accelerated to near panic capitulation levels. US data didn’t help the situation with weekly Jobless claims jumping to 573K vs. 509k previously. The October Trade Balance also weakened to -57.2Bn vs. -53.5Bn expected. Huge Trade deficits and 1% interest rates are undermining the USD going forward. As markets calm, safe haven flows and deleveraging demand for the USD has decreased (for the moment). Also hurting the Dollar yesterday was massive gains in Commodities. Oil surged as OPEC members talked about cutting supply. In U.S. share markets, the NASDAQ was down 57 points (-3.68%) and the Dow Jones was down 196 points (-2.24%). Crude Oil closed up $4.46 ending the New York session at $47.98 per barrel. Looking ahead, US Retail Sales for November seen at -1.9% vs. -2.8%. Also released November PPI seen at -2% vs. -2.8%.

The Euro (EUR) in a dramatic move overnight key technical levels at 1.3080 and 1.3290 were erased leaving the market long and bullish as USD selling accelerated. The Euro was the standout gaining against all other majors receiving a major boost from Oil Jumping 10%. Also helping the Euro to retain these gains was ECB member Weber warning that the cutting cycle may be nearing its end. EUR/GBP tested resistance at .8900 as the Euro outperformed the Pound. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3007 and a high of 1.3405 before closing the day at 1.3340. Looking ahead, October Industrial Production is released expected to fall -1% vs. -1.6% previously.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) gained against the USD but was mixed against the other majors which also gained heavily. Weakness in stocks helped to bring crosses down into the close. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 91.18 and a high of 92.84 before closing the day around 91.50 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) gained as the USD lost value but was left behind by most of the majors. Heavy EUR/GBP buying continues to weigh and the large stock falls out of the US weighed on the GBP/JPY. December CBI Orders beat expectations at -35 vs. -44 forecast but is still at very low levels. Overall the GDP/USD traded with a low of 1.4796 and a high of 1.5078 before closing the day at 1.5010 in the New York session

The Australian Dollar (AUD) was very well supported as it tracked the EURO and commodities higher. Resistance at 0.6680 was removed and the pair quickly rallied to the 0.6800 barrier. November Unemployment data was at expectations of -15.6K jobs and a 4.4% Unemployment Rate. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.6550 and a high of 0.6800 before closing the US session at 0.6720

Gold (XAU) surged as Oil was bought up and the USD was broadly sold. The $830 level proved tough resistance and weakness in stocks dragged the precious metal down from highs into the close of the day. Overall trading with a low of USD$802 and high of USD$834 before ending the New York session at USD$821 an ounce.

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