Daily FX Report

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by Varengold Bank | Feb 04 09 10:21 GMT |

Good morning from beautiful and cold Hamburg. Step by step the speculators of tomorrows European rate decisions become more important. Economists expect no rate cut. They will accurately listen what the President of the ECB would say about the future interest rate trend. Markets review In the late New York trading the EUR gained versus USD and JPY. These moves were supported by the release of an unexpected jump in the U.S. pending home sales together with the fresh stimulus measures by central banks worldwide. The U.S. Federal Reserve Bank extended its emergency-lending programs and foreign currency-swap lines by six months. The lending programs are authorized to approve loans to non-banks under 'unusual and exigent circumstances'. Outstanding loans and swaps of the programs are totaled $884 bln USD. This morning, the EUR/USD dropped again before a report may show that the retail sales declined for the seventh month in a row and trades currently around 1.30. The AUD climbed against USD the most in seven days after a government report showed that retail sales had its biggest gain in December for more than eight years. Furthermore Australia's central bank cut its interest rate to the lowest since 1964. The government also plans a record bond sale of $24 bln AUD. The NZD benefited from this and climbed versus the USD to 0.5153 from its opening at 0.5040. The USD/CAD declined for the first time in four days as equities and crude oil, one of the most important exports of Canada, climbed up. The currency pair fell yesterday from its opening at 1.2449 to 1.2293 at its lowest level Technical analysis AUD/JPY After the Fibonacci retracement shows its lowest level on the 27th of October the AUD/JPY recovered. But it has been trading in a downward movement again since 07th of January. The next support for the currency pair could be the 0.0 % retracement line. When the bearish trend breached on this support, maybe it could be a signal for the next bullish trend. EUR/GBP The EUR/GBP has been trading in a bullish trend since the end of October. It lost with the beginning of 2009 much of its power and fell to its support at 0.8812. While this support is holding it seems that the currency pair could test the resistance at 0.9063. On the other hand the momentum indicator shows a risk for a bearish trend. It is supported by the fact that the momentum as well as the moving average fell below the zero-level Pivot Points - Daily FX Support and Resistance Levels Daily Calendar & Key FX Events Varengold Bank IMPORTANT NOTIFICATION TO BE READ IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE CONTENTS OF THIS DOCUMENT This document is issued and approved by Varengold WPH Bank AG. The document is only intended for market counterparties and intermediate customers who are expected to make their own investment decisions without undue reliance on the information set out within the document. It may not be reproduced or further distributed, in whole or in part, for any purpose. Due to international laws/regulations not all financial instruments/services may be available to all clients. You should have informed yourself about and observe any such restrictions when considering a potential investment decision. This electronic communication and its contents are intended for the recipient only and may contain confidential, non public and/or privileged information. If you have received this electronic communication in error, please advise the sender immediately, and delete it from your system (if permitted by law). Varengold does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein or the appropriateness of any transaction. Nothing herein shall be construed as a recommendation or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial product. This communication is for informational urposes only. Any market or other views expressed herein are those of the sender only as of the date indicated and not of Varengold. Varengold reserves the right to consider any order sent electronically as not received unless it is confirmed verbally or through other means.