Daily Technical Strategist

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FXTechstrategy | Feb 12 09 13:43 GMT |

Today's Focus: GBPUSD & EURUSD GBPUSD: Price Collapse Targeting The 1.4045 Level. EURUSD: Vulnerable To The Downside. GBPUSD As a third-day of downside weakness is in progress, further declines targeting its Jan'2002 low at 1.4045 is now envisaged. This is coming on the heels of its Wednesday weakness through the 1.4352 level, its Dec 31'08 low following its recent recovery failure at the 1.4986 level on Feb 09'09.We maintain our medium to longer term bearishness on the pair and see risk for further downside weakness through the earlier mentioned support triggering lower prices towards its YTD low at 1.3504.Both its daily RSI and Stochastics are trending lower supporting this view.However,while a climb back above the 1.4352 level, its Dec 31'08 low and the 1.4578 level, its Feb 04'09 high will halt the present downside weakness, the 1.4981 level, its Jan 16'09 high must be recaptured to invalidate our downside view and bring further gains higher towards the 1.5374 level, its Jan 08'09 high and then the 1.5484 level, representing its .382 Ret (1.8669 to 1.3504 decline).All in all, with continued declines seen, the pair is now at risk of heading further lower. Support Comments 1.3504 YTD low 1.4045 Jan'2002 low 1.3682 Jun'2001 low Resistance Comments 1.4352 Dec 31'08 low 1.4578 Feb 04'09 high 1.4981 Jan 16'09 high EURUSD While the pair continues to hold above its broken falling channel top, loss of momentum at 1.3093 level continues to increase risk of lower prices towards the 1.2766 level, its Jan 23'09 low ahead of the 1.2706 level, its Feb 02'09 low. This level which turned the pair higher the past week is now a trigger to further downside weakness. Penetrating and maintaining below that level will call for a decline towards the 1.2551 level, its Dec 04'08 low with a breach of there setting the stage for a retarget of its 2008 swing low standing at 1.2330.Its daily stochastics is pointing lower suggesting further downside pressure could be seen.On the upside, the 1.3000/1.2993 level, its psycho level/Feb 06'09 high comes in as the first resistance with a cut through there pushing the pair further higher towards its Feb 04'09/Nov 25'08 high at 1.3071/81 and next its Jan 27/28'09 highs at 1.3327/30.Although this zone is expected to turn down the pair, if a break through there materializes we could see price extension targeting the 1.3478 level, which represents its .382 Ret(1.4719-1.2706 decline) with a penetration of there bringing further upside gains towards its .50 Ret at 1.3716.On the whole, although the pair has broken and held above its falling channel, it remains vulnerable to the downside. Support Comments 1.2766 Jan 23'09 low 1.2551 Dec 04'08 low 1.2330 2008 low Resistance Comments 1.3000/1.2993 psycho level/Feb 06'09 high. 1.3071/81 Feb 04'09/Nov 25'08 1.3298/1.3313 Jan 06'09 low/Oct 30'08 high Mohammed Isah Market Analyst www.fxtechstrategy.com This report is prepared solely for information and data purposes. Opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are the author's own as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed to be reliable but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness and neither the information nor the forecast shall be taken as a representation for which the author incur any responsibility. The does not accept any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. This report is not construed as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any of the currencies referred to in this report