Dollar May Rise to Four-Month High Against Yen, Citigroup Says

By Ron Harui

Feb. 20 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar may rise to a four-month high against the yen should it close above a so-called neckline at 94.65, Citigroup Inc. said, citing technical charts.

The level of 94.65 yen represents the neckline of a “very well defined double-bottom” pattern, New York-based Tom Fitzpatrick and London-based Shyam Devani wrote in a research note yesterday. A double bottom forms when a currency makes two consecutive troughs of about the same depth, and indicates a currency may rebound. The neckline passes through the highest point of the double bottom.

“The target on a close above here would be for a move to 102,” the Citigroup analysts wrote. “There are increasing signs that, contrary to popular wisdom, we may be starting a period of broad-based yen weakness that could see both dollar- yen and the yen crosses higher in the weeks ahead.”

The dollar traded at 94.14 yen as of 10:33 a.m. in Tokyo from 94.20 yen late in New York yesterday when it reached 94.46 yen, the highest level since Jan. 6. The 102 yen level was last seen on Oct. 21. The greenback has risen 3.8 percent against the yen this year after a 19 percent decline in 2008, the most in more than two decades.

The U.S. currency also may gain versus the yen as it has “moved decisively above the 55-day moving average in recent days,” Fitzpatrick and Devani wrote. The 55-day moving average was 90.75 yen, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast changes in a security, commodity, currency or index.

To contact the reporter on this story: Ron Harui in Singapore at rharui@bloomberg.net