Australian Wheat Exports Forecast to Jump 44%, Bureau Says

By Madelene Pearson

March 3 (Bloomberg) -- Wheat exports from Australia, the world’s fourth-largest shipper, may jump 44 percent in fiscal 2010 because of increased local supplies, the nation’s key commodity forecaster said.

Shipments may rise to 14.7 million metric tons in the 12 months ending June 30, 2010, the Canberra-based Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics said today in a report. That compares with 10.2 million tons a year earlier. Production may gain 3.3 percent, it said.

The predicted jump in shipments comes as global prices are forecast to fall 5 percent, the bureau said. Australia last year ended its monopoly on wheat exports, giving 22 traders including Cargill Inc. and Glencore International AG, permission to sell the grain overseas.

“The outlook for global wheat prices is not that favorable at the moment,” Doug Whitehead, agricultural commodity strategist at Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd., said before the report was released. “We’ve got abundant stocks and exportable surpluses in a lot of regions and that should cap any increase in the global grain price.”

World inventories, already at six-year high, will rise for a second year in fiscal 2010, the bureau said. The world wheat indicator price may fall about 5 percent to average $248 a ton in the year ending June 30, 2010, it said.

Australia’s wheat production may rise to 22.1 million tons in 2009-2010, from 21.4 million tons a year earlier, the forecaster said, after drought cut production in the previous two harvests. Global output may fall to 632 million tons, down from a record 687 million tons a year earlier, it said.

Australia’s total farm export earnings are tipped to rise 4 percent to A$32.1 billion ($20 billion) in 2009-2010 aided by a gain in sales from wheat, the bureau said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Madelene Pearson in Canberra on mpearson1@bloomberg.net