Forex Technical Update

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by India Forex | Mar 04 09 05:34 GMT |

Euro: Euro remained weak yesterday as it hit a low of 1.2521, almost 150 pips lower that the days' high. In the early trade today, Euro further weakened to the lows of 1.2456 and further downside upto 1.2330 (previous low) could be probable. ECB rate decision is due to release tomorrow. The major charts are still indicating a selling bias though they are nearing the oversold region. Initiate shorts around 1.26 for 80 pips. (Eur/Usd: 1.2488). Pound: Cable traded sideways within 170 pips yesterday with a low of 1.3984. The sentiment for Cable remains weak with the major charts yet to correct in the oversold region. The bias is bearish below 1.4295 (21 Daily EMA & 100 4-hourly EMA). On the downside 1.3503 is the initial support (low as on 18.01.2009). Initiate shorts around 1.4130 for 70-80 pips. Further shorts could be initiated around 1.43. (Gbp/Usd: 1.4098). Yen: The Usd/Jpy pair surged almost 160 pips from 96.99 levels and made a bullish divergence reversal bar. It is currently pressing against its crucial 98.50 resistance which if broken decisively can take the pair to the next resistance of 100.45 (55 Weekly EMA).The charts have flattened in the overbought region, thus, shorts in the pair should be targeted only above 100 levels. (Usd/Jpy: 98.45) Rupee: The local unit traded lower yesterday making a newer all time low of 52.19 against the greenback. It depreciated almost 6.7% in 2009 due to weak stocks (Sensex closed at its 40 month low yesterday) and continuous FII outflows. The rupee proves to be the third worst performer amongst the Asian currencies. The arbitragers in the NDF market continue to give negative clues for the rupee and breaking of 52.40 can lead it to 54 against the US Dollar. No sellers were seen in the market except the RBI which came in around 52.20 levels to curb the sharp rupee fall. (USD/INR: 51.96). Swiss Franc: The Usd/Chf pair traded sideways yesterday moving within 105 pips below 1.18 levels. It closed the session at 1.1770 levels after it touched the day's high of 1.1786. Today the major charts continue to give buying pressure. Support comes in at 1.1730(21 4-hourly EMA) around which longs can be initiated. Resistance comes in at 1.1840 (200 Weekly EMA) which if broken can lead the pair to 1.1980 (55 Monthly EMA). (Usd/Chf: 1.1810) Australian Dollar: Aussie witnessed a fall of almost 180 pips in yesterday's session after it took ressitance from the 21 Daily EMA & 38.2% Retracement around 0.6460 levels. The charts continue to indicate further downside and a break below 0.6290 (horizontal trendline) can bring a deeper pull-back upto 0.6009 levels (27th Oct. low). Shorts can be considered around 0.64 (cluster resistance) for intraday 90 pips. (Aud/Usd : 0.6325). Gold: Gold has fallen sharply against the greenback in the past few trading sessions. Yesterday again, Gold fell $27 from the highs of $932 (21 Daily EMA). The daily stochastic has flattened in the oversold region while the 4-hourly charts indicate further selling pressure. The initial support is now traced at $897 (55 Daily EMA & 50% Retracement of the rise) breaking which Gold may test $874 (rising trendline & 100 Daily EMA). Initiate longs at those levels for $15 - $20. (Gold: $912.00) Dollar index: Dollar Index is trading strongly near it previous (Nov '08) highs at 89.51 with stochastic overbought at 93.20 levels. India Forex http://www.indiaforex.in DISCLAIMER These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proferred with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice.Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsible for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.