India Wheat Needs Favorable Weather to Reach Production Target

By Thomas Kutty Abraham

March 5 (Bloomberg) -- India, the world’s second-biggest wheat producer, may fail to reach its output target this year unless some of the growing regions receive rain in the next two weeks, a government researcher said.

“The weather is going to be very critical in the next 15 days,” Jag Shoran, director at the state-owned Directorate of Wheat Research said in a telephone interview. “We could produce about 78 million tons if the weather stays favorable, otherwise it could be down to 75 million tons.”

A smaller crop may prevent the government from lifting a three-year ban on wheat exports and risk an increase in grain prices before general elections beginning next month. High food costs can mar poll prospects in a country where more than half the people survive on less than $2 a day.

Production may total 77.8 million tons, second only to that of China, in the year ending June compared with 78.6 million tons last year, farm ministry said last month. Wheat, sowed in October and harvested in March and April, makes up more than 70 percent of India’s winter-sown grain output.

Farmers have sown wheat on 27.8 million hectares, less than last year’s 28.1 million hectares, according to the farm ministry.

Crops planted after Nov. 15 in the northern states of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Assam and West Bengal need rain in two weeks to cool temperatures and aid grain formation, Shoran said.

The maximum temperatures are above normal by as much as 7 degree Celsius in the northwest India, which includes the main wheat-growing regions, the India Meteorological Department said. Temperature may drop by 2 degrees over the next two days, it said.

‘Good Condition’

The crop in Punjab and Haryana, India’s biggest suppliers of the grain to the government agencies, is in “good” condition as cool night temperatures mitigated above normal hot weather during the day, Shoran said.

“The crop is almost secure there from any change in the weather,” he said. “There are no concerns as the wheat has nearly completed the grain formation.”

Hot weather last month hurt the wheat crop in the state of Gujarat and parts of Madhya Pradesh, where production may be less than last year’s record harvests, Shoran said.

The government plans to buy 24 million tons from farmers in the year starting April 1, up from 22.68 million tons last year.

May-delivery wheat on the Chicago Board of Trade was little changed at $5.23 a bushel at 12:24 p.m. Mumbai time. Futures rose 4.2 percent yesterday, the most since Jan. 6. Prices are down 61 percent from a record $13.495 a year earlier.

To contact the reporter on this story: Thomas Kutty Abraham in Mumbai at tabraham4@bloomberg.net.