By Shobhana Chandra
March 13 (Bloomberg) -- Confidence among U.S. consumers in March held near a 28-year low, reflecting mounting job losses and a deepening recession.
The Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment climbed to 56.6 from 56.3 in February. The gauge reached a 28-year low of 55.3 in November.
The highest rate of unemployment in 25 years and the biggest drop in wealth on record as home and stock values plunge have shaken Americans, raising the risk spending will again tumble after stabilizing the last couple of months. The figures indicate the Obama administration’s plans to cut taxes, boost spending and stem foreclosures have yet to soothe household anxiety.
“Historically, readings at this level suggest a great deal of distress,” said Christopher Low, chief economist at FTN Financial in New York, in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “Things are very, very fragile, especially for consumers. Now we sit back and wait for the stimulus to kick in.”
The confidence index was forecast to fall to 55, according to the median projection of 62 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Estimates ranged from 45 to 57. The measure averaged 63.8 in 2008.
A report from the Commerce Department today showed the trade deficit narrowed in January to $36 billion, the smallest since October 2002, on tumbling American demand for everything from OPEC oil to Japanese automobiles. Imports fell faster than exports.
Cheaper Imports
Prices of goods imported into the U.S. fell in February for a seventh straight month as slumping consumer demand prevented foreign companies from charging more, a Labor Department report showed today.
The University of Michigan’s index of consumer expectations for six months from now, which more closely projects the direction of consumer spending, increased to 53 from 50.5.
A gauge of current conditions, which reflects Americans’ perceptions of their financial situation and whether it is a good time to buy big-ticket items like cars, dropped to 62.3 from 65.5.
Consumers in the survey said they expect an inflation rate of 2.2 percent over the next 12 months, up from 1.9 percent in the February survey.
Over the next five years, the figures tracked by Federal Reserve policy makers, Americans expected a 2.8 percent rate of inflation, down from 3.1 percent last month.
Preliminary Reading
The preliminary Reuters/University of Michigan consumer confidence report reflects about 300 responses compared with 500 households for the final survey.
Regular unleaded gasoline prices were $1.92 a gallon at the pump yesterday, little changed from the average for February, according to AAA.
Sales at retailers in February fell 0.1 percent, led by a slump in demand for cars, according to a Commerce Department report yesterday. Excluding automobiles, purchases unexpectedly climbed 0.7 percent.
The outlook for the year “is going to continue to be tough,” Stephen Sadove, chief executive officer of luxury retailer Saks Inc., told analysts yesterday in New York. “We are not looking at a major turnaround in the business” in 2009.
Household wealth fell by a record in the last three months of 2008, and home prices are still plunging, other reports show.
The job market continued to worsen this month after the economy lost 651,000 jobs in February and the unemployment rate jumped to a 25-year high level of 8.1 percent. Labor Department figures yesterday showed more than 600,000 workers filed claims for jobless benefits last week for the sixth straight time, the worst performance since 1982.
To contact the reporter on this story: Shobhana Chandra in Washington at schandra1@bloomberg.net
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