By Shanthy Nambiar and Chen Shiyin
April 13 (Bloomberg) -- Thailand’s baht fell the most in 10 months and ratings companies said the nation’s debt rating may be cut after anti-government protesters fought police and Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva declared a state of emergency.
The currency extended its loss this year to 2.8 percent as soldiers battled to restore order to Bangkok’s streets. Protesters are calling for the resignation of Abhisit, 44, who was forced to cancel a summit of Asian leaders over the weekend after 1,000 protesters stormed the seaside venue of Pattaya.
“We have a negative outlook on the government ratings because of the continuing divide in Thai politics and the lack of obvious peaceful means of resolving it,” said Kim Eng Tan, a director at Standard & Poor’s in Singapore. “There is a significant chance of a ratings downgrade.”
Thai soldiers fired tear gas today to clear a key intersection of demonstrators, who blocked another road near the Foreign Ministry with public buses and burning tires. Continued unrest may worsen an economy facing its first annual contraction in 11 years.
Abhisit said 47 protesters and 23 soldiers were injured, with four soldiers suffering gunshot wounds. The prime minister said he’ll consider his political future once order is restored. Protesters say his four-month-old administration lacks legitimacy because he came to power after the courts dissolved the former ruling party for vote buying.
Military Coups
The turmoil raises the prospect that the military will seize control of the country, said Paul Quaglia, director of PSA Asia, a Bangkok-based security and risk assessment consulting firm. Thailand has had 10 coups since absolute monarchy was abolished in 1932.
“There really needs to be a government in control that can focus on its economic agenda,” said Thomas J. Byrne, a senior vice president at Moody’s Investors Service in Singapore. “If conditions continue to develop, then chances are we would take the next step” and lower Thailand’s Baa1 debt rating, he added.
S&P revised the outlook on Thailand’s BBB+ credit rating to negative from stable in December as political protests aimed at ousting the previous government led to a week-long shutdown of Bangkok’s international airport.
‘Widespread Violence’
Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy may shrink 2 percent this year, Tan said today. Moody’s expects a contraction of 3 percent or more, Byrne said. That would Thailand’s first annual shrinkage in gross domestic product since the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis.
“The biggest risk is widespread violence,” S&P’s Tan said. “Investors both foreign and local are more wary of planting investment in the country.”
The baht fell 0.8 percent to 35.68 in offshore trading as of 4:45 p.m. local time, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s the biggest drop since June last year. Financial markets in Thailand are closed until April 16 for the Thai New Year holiday, known as Songkran.
“It is a pivotal moment, really,” said Jerry Yoshikoshi, senior economist with Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp. in Singapore. “Even if Abhisit resigns, I don’t think it will change the political climate in the longer term. We have been bearish on the country in the long-term. The baht will be an underperformer in coming months.”
Thai Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij said April 3 the economy shrank “about 5 percent” in the first quarter, having last month warned gross domestic product may slide more than 3 percent unless government spending is increased. A report last week showed consumer confidence slumped to the lowest level in more than seven years in March.
Growing Unrest
“It is not good at all for the baht,” said Suresh Kumar Ramanathan, a rates and currency strategist at CIMB Investment Bank Bhd. in Kuala Lumpur. “They keep on having these problems every three to six months and there is no end to it. This puts a big question mark on everything that is happening in the country. The unrest is spreading.”
Investors should “take profit” on Thailand’s stocks as anti-government protesters intensify their rallies, Credit Suisse Group advised.
Gains in global markets in the past month offer investors a chance to sell their Thai holdings, including property stocks, said Credit Suisse analyst Dan Fineman, reiterating his “underweight” recommendation on the market. An election will be the best outcome for investors as this will give the government greater legitimacy, he added.
‘Dark Days’
Thailand’s SET Index gained 10 percent in the past month, tracking a rally in global markets.
Thai Beverage Pcl, the nation’s biggest brewer and whiskey maker, slumped in Singapore trading as anti-government protests mounted in Thailand.
Thai Beverage slipped 2.8 percent to 17.5 Singapore cents at 9:25 a.m. in Singapore after slumping as much as 5.6 percent at the opening. Total Access Communications Pcl, another Thai company listed in Singapore, added 1.4 percent to 74 US cents.
“A return to the dark days of the second half of 2008 is not inevitable but the risk of prolonged political tensions is high,” Fineman said. “We now suggest taking profit in key stocks and sectors we had previously liked.”
To contact the reporters on this story: Shanthy Nambiar in Bangkok at snambiar1@bloomberg.net; Chen Shiyin in Singapore at schen37@bloomberg.net.
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