Crude Oil Is Little Changed on Concern Fuel Demand May Decline

By Christian Schmollinger

May 15 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil was little changed after retreating from a six-month high of $60 a barrel this week on concern the global economic recovery may falter.

Oil gave back its earlier gains after a report on May 13 showed a weaker-than-expected drop in U.S. retail sales, raising concern that the recession may be prolonged. Crude also slid as the International Energy Agency yesterday forecast the biggest contraction in world oil use since 1981.

“We’re definitely not out of the woods yet on this economic recession,” said Anthony Nunan, an assistant general manager for risk management at Mitsubishi Corp. in Tokyo. “Fuel demand is bad and the IEA report really drove that home.”

Crude oil for June delivery was at $58.65 a barrel, up 3 cents, in after-hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 2:16 p.m. in Singapore. Oil reached $60.08 on May 12, the highest intraday price since Nov. 11.

Prices fell to $56.55 yesterday, a four-day low, after the IEA report and rebounded to close at $58.62 a barrel as U.S. stocks advanced on a decline in bank borrowing and better-than- estimated earnings at computer software maker CA Inc.

Oil futures are little changed this week after falling on May 13 as weaker-than-expected retail data in the U.S. caused investors to sell equities. The same day, an Energy Department report showed U.S. crude-oil supplies fell 4.63 million barrels to 370.6 million in the week ended May 8, the first drop since February. The decline left inventories 18 percent higher than the five-year average for the week.

Fuel Consumption

Total U.S. daily fuel demand averaged 18.2 million barrels in the four weeks ended May 8, down 7.9 percent from a year earlier, the Energy Department report showed. Gasoline demand averaged 9 million barrels in the same period, down 1.2 percent from a year earlier.

The IEA cut its 2009 demand estimate to 83.2 million barrels a day this year, down 3 percent from 2008. That’s 230,000 barrels a day lower than last month’s forecast. OPEC and the U.S. Energy Department reduced their 2009 outlooks this week.

Brent crude oil for July settlement was at $58.50 a barrel, down 9 cents, on London’s ICE Futures Europe exchange at 2:12 p.m. Singapore time. It rose 47 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $58.59 a barrel yesterday. The June contract, which expired yesterday, fell 65 cents, or 1.1 percent, to $56.69 a barrel.

Crude oil futures may decline next week as the global recession saps fuel demand and bolsters U.S. inventories that are near the highest since 1990.

Eighteen of 30 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News, or 60 percent, said futures will fall through May 22. It was the most bearish response since June 2008. Six respondents, or 20 percent, forecast that oil prices will rise and six said the market will be little changed. Last week, 43 percent of analysts said prices would decline.

To contact the reporter on this story: Christian Schmollinger in Singapore at christian.s@bloomberg.net.