Economic Calendar

Monday, May 4, 2009

Currency Technical Report

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Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FX Greece | May 04 09 11:20 GMT |

EUR/USD

Resistance: 1,3330-1,3340/ 1,3390-00/ 1,3725-30/ 1,3470/ 1,3510
Support : 1,3270/ 1,3220-30/ 1,3170-80/ 1,3140-50/ 1,3100/ 1,3050

Comment: Euro is moving again above 1,3300 area in the beginning of the week, testing 1,3340-50 resistance. According to our short term scenario in our last analysis, important resistance at 1,3400 should be reached and a false break of the downward channel is possible.

For this scenario to be valid, any upward reaction should be limited below 1,3340-50 and first support at 1,3270-80 and 1,3220 should be breached downwards. The short term reversal ranges are set at 1,3100 and a possible break could lead to our next targets at 1,3090-3110.

If support levels are confirmed and euro moves above 1,3400 area, a move towards our next targets at 1,3520 and 1,3580 or even higher, will be possible. In that case, the rise from March lows would be an upward wave in terms of the wider triangle formation (weekly chart). According to this theory, 5 waves should be formed and we are currently at the third. If this wave is not completed, next target will be at 1,3900 or even 1,4400. A downward move from these levels should form the fourth wave (wave d in the chart), then a rise as the fifth wave (wave e) and at last an sharp decline should be formed in the end of the year according to our long term scenario and the cycle theory…

STRATEGY

Our strategy remains the same 'We will use retracement towards 1,3330-40 for sell orders with stops above 1,3420. First target will be at 1,3190-00 followed by 1,3100 area.'
A clear break of 1,3420 may be used for buy orders and target at 1,3500-20 and 1,3580 area…

Today markets at UK and Japan are closed and high volatility is expected due to low liquidity. We should be cautious and keep our positions small…

FX Greece

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