Crude Oil Falls a Second Day on Concern Fuel Supply to Increase

By Christian Schmollinger

June 22 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil fell for a second day in New York on concern that U.S. gasoline stockpiles will increase because of weak demand during the recession.

Oil extended a 2.6 percent loss on June 19 after gains in refinery output amid lower consumption pulled motor fuel futures down by 5.2 percent. Gasoline inventories in the U.S., the world’s biggest oil consumer, climbed a larger-than-expected 3.39 million barrels in the week ended June 12, the Energy Department said last week.

“The current sentiment is driven by the gasoline markets behind the weak inventory number from last week,” said Tetsu Emori, a commodity fund manager at Astmax Co. in Tokyo. “Gasoline demand has improved somewhat due to seasonal factors but I’m not sure how realistic that will be.”

Crude oil for July delivery declined as much as 50 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $69.05 a barrel in after-hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract was at $69.29 at 12:26 p.m. Singapore time. The contract, which expires today, closed at $69.55 on June 19, the lowest settlement since June 8.

Oil for August delivery, the more-actively traded contract, fell as much as 56 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $69.46 a barrel.

“If we should stay below $70 for the August contract that should be a bearish sign,” said Astmax’s Emori. “ The trading for today and tomorrow will be very important in setting the direction for the market.”

Stockpile Increase

Last week’s increase in U.S. gasoline inventories to 205 million barrels was the biggest jump since January. Motor fuel demand averaged 9.26 million barrels a day for the four weeks ended June 12, the Energy Department said. That’s down 0.3 percent from the previous year.

Total daily fuel demand in the four weeks ended June 12 was down 6 percent from a year earlier, the department said.

The so-called crack spread for gasoline, or the profit margin from producing the motor fuel, plunged 19 percent on June 19 and is at $11.66 a barrel today. That’s down from a peak of $16.84 a barrel reached on June 16.

Brent crude for August settlement fell as much as 34 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $68.85 a barrel on London’s ICE Futures Europe exchange. It was as $69.08 a barrel at 12:30 p.m. Singapore time.

Hedge-fund managers and other large speculators decreased their net-long position in New York crude-oil futures in the week ended June 16, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data.

Speculative long positions, or bets prices will rise, outnumbered short positions by 26,430 contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the Washington-based commission said in its Commitments of Traders report. Net-long positions fell by 21,453 contracts, or 45 percent, from a week earlier.

Iranian Unrest

Unrest continued this weekend in Tehran over the results of elections in Iran, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ second-largest producer.

Still, it is unlikely that either side in the political dispute would disrupt the country’s exports of 2.2 million barrels a day, Michael Wittner, head of oil research at Societe Generale, said in a June 19 note.

“Even if there is violent regime change in Iran, we would not at all jump to the conclusion that crude production and exports would be shut down,” the report said. “Any new government would know that the Iranian economy is highly dependent on revenue from crude exports.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Christian Schmollinger in Singapore at christian.s@bloomberg.net.