U.S. Corn Crop May Fall 6.6% as Rain Delays Sowing, Study Shows

By Jeff Wilson

June 5 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. farmers may produce 6.6 percent less corn than last year after rain-delayed planting reduced acreage and yields, according to study by the University of Illinois.

Corn output will total 11.307 billion bushels, assuming normal weather for the rest of the season, down from 12.1 billion last year, the study shows. The forecast harvest would be the lowest in three years according to the estimate which compares yields and planting dates in Iowa, Illinois and Indiana to national production since 1960.

Planting of the U.S. corn crop, the world’s largest, was about 93 percent complete as of May 31, down from a five-year average for the period of 97 percent, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said this week. It is forecasting the crop at 12.09 billion bushels.

“Standard errors of the forecasts at this point in the growing season could easily exceed 15 bushels per acre,” according to the report by Urbana, Illinois-based agricultural economists Darrel Good and Scott Irwin. “The size of the 2009 crop will also depend on the magnitude of acreage harvested for grain.”

Planting delays will reduce corn acreage by about 1.7 million acres from the 85 million farmers said they intended to plant in a March survey by the department, Good and Irwin said in their report yesterday.

They estimate about 30 percent of the U.S. crop was planted after May 20, the fourth slowest in the past 20 years. That will also cut the national average yield to 148.6 bushels per acre, down from the trend average of 154.9 bushels over the past 20 years.

Ideal growing weather and an extended frost-free growing season could boost production to 12.272 billion bushels, the pair said. Production could slump to 9.95 billion should hot, dry weather develop when plants are reproducing or filling kernels with sugars and starch in July and August.

The U.S. government is scheduled to release updated U.S. and world supply and demand estimates for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton and rice on June 10 at 8:30 a.m. in Washington.

To contact the reporter on this story: Jeff Wilson in Chicago at jwilson29@bloomberg.net