El Nino Weather Event Likely, Australian Bureau Says

By Madelene Pearson

July 1 (Bloomberg) -- El Nino weather conditions, which can cause a drought in Australia and in the Asia Pacific, are likely to occur after more signs of the phenomenon emerged, Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology said.

“More evidence of a developing El Nino has emerged during the past fortnight, and computer forecasts show there’s very little chance of the development stalling or reversing,” the forecaster said today in a statement on its Web site.

El Nino weather conditions occur about every four to seven years and shift weather patterns around the world. Previous El Ninos in 2002 and 2006 cut rainfall in Australia, slashing farm output in the nation, the world’s fourth-largest wheat exporter.

“El Nino events are usually, but not always, associated with below average rainfall in the second-half of the year across large parts of southern and inland eastern Australia,” the bureau said today.

All international climate models predict the tropical Pacific to continue to warm and to be above El Nino thresholds throughout most of the second-half of 2009, it said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Madelene Pearson in Melbourne on mpearson1@bloomberg.net