Forex Exchange Morning Report

Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by Westpac Institutional Bank | Jul 08 09 01:22 GMT |

News And Views All eyes were on the S&P500 last night, watching for signs of a breakdown, as it sits perilously close to the 200 day moving average support level. To that we add the Dow Industrials did break below a neckline at 8000. The S&P500 closed down 2.0%, led by growth stocks (rather than financials). Talk by a US economic advisory panel of further possible government stimulus added to investors worries all is not well. Oil and copper both fell by 2.6%. US 10yr treasuries rallied 6bp, and 3mth Libor fell by another 1bp to 0.54%. The US dollar dipped on earlier equities strength, but recovered on the selloff in risk from noon London. The EUR mirrored that action, rallying to 1.4050 (strong German factory orders may have added to the move) before falling back to minor support at 1.3900. GBP's morning rally was dampened by the downbeat UK factory orders report, reaching only 1.6260 before falling to 1.6120. JPY firmed amid the gloom, from 95.45 to 94.70 against the dollar. AUD peaked around 0.8040, in line with equities, and then fell to 0.7900. An article by influential columnist McCrann, which said the RBA did the right thing, had no market effect. NZD reached 0.6395 before dropping to 0.6300, residual effects from the earlier bullish business opinion survey cushioning. AUD/NZD ranged between 1.2510 and 1.2585, an hourly head-and-shoulders pattern arguing for lower today. No US data. German factory orders jumped 4.4% in May, well ahead of the market forecast of +0.5%. Domestic orders rose 3.9% while foreign orders rose 5.2%. Orders remain down 29.4% on a year ago, but this is a welcome improvement in activity data in a region where the 'green shoots' to date have largely been confined to confidence surveys. UK industrial output fell 0.6% in May and was down 11.9% on a year ago. Durable goods recorded a strong 6.6% increase, but aside from utilities most other sectors were weaker. Canadian Ivey PMI surged from 48.8 to 58.2 in June, the highest since September last year and well up from the low of 36.1 in January. This series is not seasonally adjusted and can be jumpy from month to month, but the underlying trend does appear to be improving. Canadian building permits rose 14.8% in May. Most of the rise was in apartments, up 40.6%, but single home permits also rose by 1.5%. The number of permits is now 28% above the lows reached earlier this year, consistent with recent signs of stabilisation in the housing sector. Outlook Having retraced 50% of the move down (since 30 June), NZD appears ready to resume its recent trend lower, and we look for a break below 0.6250 over the next few days. Any upside price action should be capped at 0.6400. The next important event on the calendar will be the Australian employment report tomorrow Events Today Country Release Last Forecast Aus Jul Westpac-MI Consumer Sentiment 100.1 – May Housing Finance 0.90% 2.50% US May Consumer Credit $bn –15.7 –10.0 Fedspeak: Evans Jpn May Machinery Orders –5.4% 2.40% May Current Account ¥bn sa 966 1228 Jun Bank Lending %yr 3.10% – Eur Q1 GDP (F) –2.5% a 2.50% Ger May Industrial Production –1.9% flat UK Jun Consumer Confidence 53 51 Jun BRC Shop Price Index %yr 1.30% – Westpac Institutional Bank http://www.wib.westpac.co.nz/ Disclaimer All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac's financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting www.westpac.com.au or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is regulated for the conduct of investment business in the United Kingdom by the Financial Services Authority. © 2004 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.