Relatively Quiet Markets Expected

Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by Saxo Bank | Jul 03 09 07:07 GMT |

The US markets are closed today and the only important economic data release is the E-Z Retail Sales so expect relatively quiet markets. Calendar Economic Data Releases Country Name Time (GMT) Expectation Prior Comment EC 08:00 PMI Services (JUN) 44.5 44.5 UK 08:30 Mortgage Equity Withdrawal (1Q) -£9.0B -£8.0B EC 09:00 Retail Sales MoM (MAY) -0.1% 0.2% What's going on? The market was taken by surprise at the release of worse than expected Nonfarm Payrolls (out at -467K vs. -365K expected). The Unemployment Rate was lower than expected at 9.5% and the 'broad' unemployment (including unwilling marginally attached and part-time workers) rose to 16.5%. Crude Oil is factoring in some weakness here and threatens to break the 66ish support level. Be ready for serious downside if that happens. S&P500 broke lower and closed at 896. The US market is closed today (due to 4th of July tomorrow) and with the lack of important data releases today, markets are likely to be relatively quiet. Only important release is the E-Z Retail Sales. FX FX Daily stance Comment EURUSD 0/- Look to sell rallies to 1.4015-25, stop above 1.4110 with 1.39 a preferred target. EURJPY 0/- Any rebound seen limited to 135.0. Sell there for 132.50, stop abv 136.0. USDJPY 0/- Sell rallies to 96.25 for a push down to 95.0. Stop abv 96.75. GBPUSD 0/- Look to sell rallies to 1.6425 max. Weakness could extend to 1.6230 level. AUDUSD 0 Test of 0.79 survived. Likely ranging 0.7925-0.8025 in a quiet session. Equities Equities Daily stance Comment DAX 0/+ Buy on dips towards 4670 and target 4730. Stop below 4645. FTSE 0/+ Buy on dips towards 4215 and target 4255. Stop below 4200. S&P500 Nasdaq100 Nikkei 0 Futures Commodities Daily Stance Comment Gold 0/+ Buy on dips towards 930 and target 945. Stop below 927. Silver 0/+ Buy at the break of 13.33 and target 13.70. Stop below 13.20. Oil 0/- Sell on rallies towards 68 and target 66.50. Stop above 69. FX Options FX-Options Comment EURUSD Vols was sold off very heavily during Thursday's trading especially after NFP, which did not bring the expect spot to enter range more and trend less. option market the expected volatility. With US holiday ahead and much lower implied vols we shall expect spot to enter range more and trend less. Analysis Disclosure & Disclaimer Saxo Bank A/S shall not be responsible for any loss arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained. The contents of this publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Saxo Bank that clients will profit from the strategies herein or that losses in connection therewith can or will be limited. Trades in accordance with the recommendations in an analysis, especially leveraged investments such as foreign exchange trading and investment in derivatives, can be very speculative and may result in losses as well as profits, in particular if the conditions mentioned in the analysis do not occur as anticipated. Saxo Bank utilizes financial information providers and information from such providers may form the basis for an analysis. Saxo Bank accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any information herein contained. Any recommendations and other comments in Saxo Bank's analysis derive from objective fundamental macro economical and company specific calculations, statistical and technical analysis, and subjective general market assessment. If an analysis contains recommendations to buy or sell a specific financial instrument, such recommendation should be seen as Saxo Bank's opinion that the specific instrument will respectively outperform the relevant market or underperform compared to the market. Saxo Bank's recommendations should statistically correspond to an even distribution between buy and sell recommendations. The recommendations may expire promptly due to market volatility and in general, Saxo Bank does not anticipate its recommendations to be valid more than one month. An analysis will be updated if and only if a market development or other issues relevant to the analysis render a new analysis on the same topic relevant. Saxo Bank's analysis does not cover any specific financial product over time but only products which Saxo Bank's strategy team finds it important to cover at any given point in time. In order to prevent conflicts of interest, Saxo Bank has established appropriate business procedures, incl. procedures applicable to research and analysis to ensure objective research reports. Saxo Bank's research reports have not been discussed with the parties, e.g. issuers of securities, mentioned in the analysis. Saxo Bank is under supervision by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority. Saxo Bank does not engage in corporate finance activities and accordingly, Saxo Bank's employees, incl. the persons responsible for an analysis, do not receive remuneration associated with investment banking transactions.