Russia Output Shrank Record 10.9% Last Quarter as Slump Deepens

By Paul Abelsky

Aug. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Russia’s economy contracted the most on record last quarter as rising unemployment sapped consumer demand, bank lending stalled and the government was slow to respond with support measures.

Gross domestic product contracted an annual 10.9 percent in the second quarter, the Federal Statistics Service said in an e- mailed statement today, citing preliminary data. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of seven economists was for output to shrink 10.2 percent. GDP expanded 7.5 percent from the previous quarter. The service’s data go as far back as 1995.

Russia’s economic decline is worsening after output contracted 9.8 percent in the first quarter, ending 10 years of expansion that averaged close to 7 percent. The worst global financial crisis since the Great Depression undermined demand for Russia’s oil, natural gas and metals. The country’s industrial production plunged as companies depleted stocks and struggled to raise funds during the credit crunch.

“We can’t develop like this any longer,” President Dmitry Medvedevsaid yesterday during a meeting with political party leaders in the Black Sea resort of Sochi. “It’s a dead end. And the crisis has placed us in a situation where we will have to make decisions on changing the structure of the economy.”

Russia “crumbled” after commodity prices collapsed, Medvedev said. Energy, including oil and natural gas, accounted for 68.8 percent of exports to the Baltic states and countries outside the former Soviet Union in the first six months of the year, Russia’s Federal Customs Service said last week.

Urals crude oil, Russia’s chief export earner, averaged $61.03 a barrel during the last quarter after reaching a record $142.5 in July 2008.

Stocks, Oil

Russian stock market moves are showing record correlations with oil futures traded in New York, based on daily changes over the past 90 days, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The 30-stock Micex index, which is mostly made up of energy companies, slipped into a bear market in June after falling more than 20 percent from its high on June 1, on concern a prolonged recession will cut demand for fuel. It gained 8.4 percent in July and is up 79 percent this year.

The world’s biggest energy exporter may run a budget deficit as wide as 9.4 percent of GDP this year, the country’s first shortfall in a decade, as plummeting demand for commodities threatens to cut revenue by a third, according to the Finance Ministry.

Russia has earmarked 2.51 trillion rubles ($79 billion) in spending to battle the slump, including funding designated for carmakers, agriculture and construction. The “anti-crisis” program was signed into law by Putin on June 19.

‘Might Fail’

“The planned fiscal relaxation might fail to stimulate private consumption in the face of significant uncertainty about future income,” the International Monetary Fund said in a report published on Aug. 7. “Absent a more determined policy intervention, there is a risk that banks will continue to struggle to adjust balance sheets, stifling credit expansion and impeding a recovery.”

Declining inventories accounted for 80 percent of the drop in GDP during the first three months, according to the Economy Ministry, which predicts output may shrink as much as 8.5 percent this year.

Russia’s inflation rate rose in July for the first time in four months, advancing to 12 percent from 11.9 percent in June. The trade surplus widened in June to $9.03 billion from $8.8 billion in the previous month.

The economy may start to show signs of recovery in the third quarter this year, Deputy Economy Minister Andrei Klepach said on July 23.

Central Bank

Russia’s economy will need between four years and five years to match last year’s pace of growth, Finance Minister Alexei Kudrinsaid yesterday. GDP in 2008 grew at the slowest pace since 2002, expanding 5.6 percent compared with 8.1 percent a year earlier.

The IMF forecasts a 6.5 percent economic contraction for Russia this year, followed by growth of 1.5 percent in 2010.

The central bank’s five interest-rate cuts since April 24 have failed to spur lending as banks hold back on concern borrowers can’t repay loans. Lending to consumers dropped 1.1 percent in June for the fifth consecutive monthly decline and banks shrank their corporate loan books by 1.2 percent, according to central bank data.

By the end of 2009, 17.4 percent of the population, or 24.6 million people, will be living beneath the subsistence level of $185 per month, almost 5 percent more than before the crisis, the World Bank said in a report released in June.

Unemployment may exceed 13 percent by the end of the year, compared with 8.3 percent in June, according to the World Bank.

Rising numbers of jobless and falling wages will cut the country’s nascent middle class by 10 percent, or 6.2 million people, to about 51.2 percent of the population, the Washington- based lender said. Household consumption, “the main source of growth in recent years,” is “collapsing,” it added.

To contact the reporter on this story: Paul Abelsky in St. Petersburg at pabelsky@bloomberg.net.