European Market Update

Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by Trade The News | Sep 10 09 10:03 GMT |

Chinese Premier Wen notes that Impact of stimulus policies is fading ECONOMIC DATA (IN) India Aug exports at $14.3B, down 19.7% y/y - Trade Sec (FI) Finland Jul Industrial Production M/M: -3.1% v 1.4%e, Y/Y: -24.0% v -19.9%e (FR) French Q2 Final Non-Farm Payrolls Q/Q: -0.7% v -0.5%e (FR) French Jul Industrial Production M/M: 0.1% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: -13.0% v -13.0%e (FR) French July Manufacturing Production M/M: 0.6% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: -13.8% v -14.4%e (FR) French Jul Trade Balance: -€1.3B v -€4.0Be (TU) Turkish Aug Capacity Utilization: 69.7% v 72.3%e (TU) Turkish Q2 GDP Y/Y: -7.0% v -8.0%e (RU) Russian Gold & Forex Reserves w/e Sep 4th: $404.9B v $404.9B prior (SW) Swedish Aug CPI Headline Rate M/M: 0.2% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: -0.8% v -1.0%e (SW) Swedish Aug CPI Underlying Inflation M/M: % v 0.2%e; Y/Y: % v 0.2%e; CPI Level: 299.42v 299.48e (DE) Danish Aug CPI M/M: 0.3% v 0.2%e;Y/Y: 1.1% v 1.1%e (DE) Danish Aug CPI - Underlying Inflation: 0.3% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 0.7% v 0.7%e (EU) ECB Monthly Report: Significant economic contraction has ended and risks are more balanced (mirrors ECB press conference from Sept 3rd) (IT) Italian Jul Trade Balance non EU: €1.7B v €147M prior (NO) Norway CPI M/M: -0.2% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.9% v 2.2%e (NO) Norway CPI Underlying M/M: -0.3% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 2.3% v 2.6%e (NO) Norway Producer prices M/M: 4.9% v -5.7% prior; Y/Y: -1.2% v -7.1%e (UK) Aug Halifax House Prices M/M: 0.8% v 1.0%e; Y/Y: -10.1% v -10.1%e (IT) Italian Q2 Final GDP Q/Q: -0.5% v -0.5%e; Y/Y: -6.0% v -6.0%e SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM In equities news overnight : European equity markets opened to a light note following a similarly positive trading session in Asia. Moving higher after the open, all of Europe's main bourses, including the CAC, DAX and FTSE100 proceeded to print new 2009 calendar year highs. For the FTSE100, yesterday's close above the 5000 handle represented a level not seen since early Oct 2008. Early equity strength was driven by tech and industrial sectors following a positive guidance revision out of chip-maker ASML [ASML.UK] and an upgrade in ThyssenKrupp [TKA.GE] out of RBS. Shares of TUI Travel [TT.UK] have continued their out performance that began yesterday as reports that Arcandor's [ARO.GE] 49% stake is being eagerly acquired. After the strong open, equities sold off their best level following a disappointing export figure out of India (-19.7% y/y). This figure had downside effects for a range of commodities, miners and industrial names. This slide was halted by economic data between 3:30EST and 4:00EST including the UK Aug Halifax, Italian trade balance and the second consecutive IEA 2009 oil demand upward revision on the back of 'stronger global recovery.' IEA comments led to a rally in equities that carried into 5:00EST but looked ready to quickly pare gains. By 5:30EST equities have regained their downward momentum and are testing the unchanged lines on solid volume. In individual equities: ASML [ASML.NV] Raises Q3 and Q4 targets; Guides Q3/Q4 Rev at above €500M v €450M prior (€446Me). Sees business levels and bookings rising from previous guidance into Q3. DRAM and Logic units seeing demand boosts. ||Home Retail [HOME.UK] Reports Q2 Argos Sales £951M (LFL -1.4%), Homebase Sales £401M( LFL +1.6%). || William Morrison [MRW.UK] Reports H1 Pretax £449M v £357Me, Rev £7.5B v £7.3Be, Declares interim dividend 1.80p/shr. || Thomas Cook [TCG.UK] Follow up: Group stake formerly held by Arcandor is being sold -Bayerische Landesbank. || National Express [NEX.UK] Group is read to agree to £765M bid from CVC and Cosmen family -Daily Telegraph. || Galliford Try [GFRD.UK] Reports FY09 Net loss £18M v loss £17Me, Rev £1.5B v £1.5Be; To sell shares to raise £125.6M (47% of market cap). || Alcatel Lucent [ALU.FR] Reportedly, Huawei denied that it was in talks regarding an alliance. || SberBank [SBER.RU] Reports Q2 Net RUB5.4B v RUB4.2Be. Net Interest Income RUB245B (+45% y/y). NPL's at 6.4% of portfolio. Provisions for loan losses at 388.1B (7.1% of loan book). Total Assets -2.3% to RUB6.6B. || Speakers: ECB Liikanen reiterated the central bank's view that global economy was seen recovering slowly. He continued to believe that major currencies should be market determined. He stated that global imbalances including US debt and Chinese surplus must be analyzed. Clear that Gov't cannot fund their actions with debt and must start to repay debt taken on over the last few years || Chinese Premier Wen commented that there were signs of strength in global economy but again cautioned that recovery was viewed as being slow and uneven || China's NDRC's Zhang: Hopeful of achieving 8% growth target || The ECB monthly report largely reflected the Spt 3rd press conference. The ECB noted that the significant economic contraction had come to an end and risks are more balanced. It did reiterated that the Euro-Zone recovery wouldbe gradual and uneven with activity to remain weak in near term. Economic slack possible widened substantially. The ECB would unwind emergency measures when economy improved and that Interest rates were appropriate for current circumstances. The ECB warned that one should not neglect the risk of protectionism resurgence || ECB's Mersch reiterated the recent theme that the economic recovery to be gradual and volatile. He also reiterated that expected Euro-zone inflation to turn positive by the end of 2009. Mersch added that it was too soon to withdraw ECB and government support for economy but must discuss the end of stimulus in coming months. The ECB member stressed that he was strongly vigilant for liquidity impact on inflation ||(PD) Polish Central Banker Noga commented that 2010 GDP growth could approach 2% In Currencies: The USD consolidated from its recent losses against the majors and commodity-related currency pairs. The current price action seen as more technical profit-taking oriented following the recent test of 1.4600 in EUR/USD. Overall dealer continue to point that the recent USD trend suggests that USD is now viewed as a carry trade funding currency. Short-term USD funding costs are cheap and the currency is seen as weak. Dealer do point out that the recent 'official' names seen buying euros might be the IMF and chatter that the purchases are related to the China deal worth $50B which is to be translated into SDRs. As the NY morning approaches, EUR/USD at 1.4540 area. The BoE meeting will focus later today. Market expects that the BOE would hold its asset purchase target steady at £175B at today's meeting. There is some chatter that the central bank might cut its deposit rate (in the manner Sweden did, back in July) but such a move is unlikely. GBP/USD at 1.6520 and lower by 20 pips from its asian open. In Fixed Income Supply: Bunds, Gilts and Treasuries have swung in and out of positive territory this morning, moving inversely to and at the whim of, gyrations in stocks. The UK yield curve continues to test its steepest levels ahead of the BoE rate decision, with 2s10s sitting right near all time highs of 280bps throughout the session. Bunds have maintained a 3bps range this morning and are yielding 3.35% at the time of writing, just above their 50 day moving average. The 10y Note has held onto a similar range with the yield at 3.46% in current trade. A healthy flow of corporate issuance continues to be announced, with a huge offering from Italian utility Enel the major talking point In Energy/commodities: : IEA raised its 2009 oil demand forecast by 500K bpd, raised 2010 demand by 400K bpd on the back of stronger global recovery in US and China. IEA now sees 2009 oil demand at 84.4M bpd (still down 2.2% y/y) and 2010 demand at 85.7M bpd. It noted that 2010 global oil consumption was forecasted to rise by 1.3%. 2009 and 2010 non-opec oil supply remains flat at 51M bpd and 51.5M bpd. IEA forecasted that current OPEC compliance would decline to 66% from previous of 69% as OPEC added extra 55K bpd last month. Current OPEC Aug supply 26.3M bpd and current OECD oil supply seen at 61.8 days, +4.6% y/y. Floating storage at 50-55M bbl v 65M bbl m/m || OPEC Gen Sec El-Badri commented that Non-Opec countries might be invited to attend meetings on a yearly basis. He noted that every non-opec nation ex Mexico have been raising production. It had seen any material results from its discussions with Russia and Russian decision to increase output was not viewed as Credit Crisis: Moody's issued its annual report on Ireland and noted that the country 'AA1' sovereign rating faces 'severe test'. Moody's notes that size and lack of diversification of the Irish economy exposes it to unique risks In The Papers: Washington Post noted that banks were being forced to forgive credit card debt or modify it in favor of the cardholders. Yesterday's NY Times noted that debit card overdraft fees are a boon for banks. That article noted that banks and credit unions have long pitched debit cards as a convenient and prudent way to buy. But a growing number are now allowing consumers to exceed their balances - for a price. NOTES Fed's Beige Book seemed to indicate that US interest rate policy to remain steady for a long time (IN) India Aug exports at $14.3B, down 19.7% y/y - Trade Sec Realtytrac revises up forecasts for 09 and extends outlook for peak into late '10 Bank of China [3988.HK] Exec Zhu: Ample liquidity has caused 'bubbles' in stocks, commodities and real estate and not only in China Chinese Premier Wen: Seeing signs of strength in global economy; but Recovery seen as slow and non-linear; Impact of stimulus policies is fading IEA raises 2009 and 2010 demand forecast on stronger than expected recovery RealtyTrac: US Aug foreclosures: 1 in 357 homes with loans got filed. Looking Ahead 7:00 (UK) BoE Rate Decision: No change expected current Bank Rate is 0.50%, current APF Target is £175B (LV) Latvian Rate Decision: No estimates, current Rate is 4.00% 8:00 (BR) Brazil Aug IBGE Inflation M/M: 0.2%e v 0.2% prior, Y/Y:4.4%e v 4.5% prior 8:15 (EU) ECB's Weber 8:30 (US) July Trade Balance: -$27.3Be v -$27.0B prior 8:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims w/e Sep 5th: 560Ke v 570K prior, Continuing Claims: 6.2Me v 6.234M prior 9:00 (CA) Bank of Canada Rate Decision: No change expected v 0.25% prior 11:30 (EU) ECB's Nowotny 12:30 (US) Fed's Lockhart 13:00 (US) Treasury to reopen $12B in 30y bonds - 13:00 (US) Treasury's Geither testifies before TARP oversight pane (TU) Turkish Current Account (TRY): -0.2B v -1.9B prior Trade The News Staff Trade The News, Inc. Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure All information provided by Trade The News (a product of Trade The News, Inc. "referred to as TTN hereafter") is for informational purposes only. 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