Power-Station Coal May Rise to $100 a Ton in 2010, Bumi Says

By Dinakar Sethuraman

Oct. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Power-station coal prices may climb by more than 40 percent in 2010 from current levels as a global economic recovery boosts demand from power plants and steel producers, an official from PT Bumi Resources said.

Benchmark thermal coal grades, those burnt by Japanese utilities, may rise to about $100 a metric ton in the fourth quarter of 2010, led by economic growth in Asia and under- investment in coal capacity, said Dileep Srivastava, senior vice president for investor relations at Bumi. That compares with $69.85 a metric ton in the week ended Oct. 2 at Australia’s Newcastle port, globalCOAL NEWC Index shows.

“Demand for coal in China, India and Indonesia will be sustained at higher levels, while demand should normalize” in developed countries, Srivastava said in Singapore yesterday. China imported a record 48 million tons in the first six months, customs figures show.

Spot prices at Newcastle reached a record $194.79 a ton in July last year, before the global recession cut output and electricity demand. Coal for delivery to Rotterdam with settlement next year rose to $83.75 a ton yesterday, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, compared with this year’s low of $51.75 on March 12.

Bumi estimates average prices at $61 to $62 a ton, excluding freight and charges, for coal shipped from its mines this year, compared with $73.30 a ton in 2008, according to a company presentation. That compares with about $44 a ton in 2007, Srivatsava said, declining to give a forecast for next year.

Steel Demand Recovery

UBS AG has raised its 2010 forecast for benchmark coal to $90 a metric ton from $80 a ton in 2010 in a report on July 6. Market conditions are expected to tighten starting in the fourth quarter of this year, with prices peaking in 2011, UBS said.

A recovery in steel demand may crimp thermal coal supplies, boosting prices, Srivatsava said. Steel producers use metallurgical coal, a higher grade that yields better margins for suppliers. Australian producers who diverted some metallurgical coal capacity to the thermal coal market because the recession curbed steel output may start boosting shipments to steel mills, he said.

Hard coking coal may climb to $180 a ton, up from an earlier forecast of $155 a ton because global crude steel production will rise by 12 percent in 2010 to a record 1.4 billion tons, Goldman Sachs JBWere Pty said Oct. 6.

Investments in new coal mines slowed as the global financial crisis slashed project funding, Srivatsava said. Mining ventures take a while to “unlock capacity” as producers typically need seven years to start output from a new coal concession and at least three years to expand output at an existing mine, he said.

Bumi plans to boost sales to China and India by 2012 when Asia’s biggest thermal coal exporter increases production to 100 million tons from 53 million last year, Srivastava said. It may supply 20 percent of its output to each of the two countries.

To contact the reporter on this story: Dinakar Sethuraman in Singapore at dinakar@bloomberg.net.