Wakeup Call: Risk Could Be Back Today On Better Than Expected Durable Goods

Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by Saxo Bank | Oct 28 09 09:03 GMT |

Buy on dips with a tight stop in equities. We believe that Durable Goods Order could surprise significantly to the upside today and the sentiment for tomorrow's GDP is quite positive Calendar Economic Data Releases Country Name Time (GMT) Expectation Prior Comment US 12:30 Durable Goods Orders MoM (SEP) 1.0% -2.6% US 12:30 Durable G.O. ex. Transp. MoM (SEP) 0.7% -0.3% US 14:00 New Home Sales MoM (SEP) 2.6% 0.7% Earnings Data Releases Country Name Time (GMT) Expectation Prior Comment US Bf-Mkt Coca Cola 0.462 US 16:30 Conoco Phillips 0.939 What's going on? US figures yesterday were quite disappointing. Especially Consumer Confidence at 47.7 vs. 53.5 expected. S&P500 wedge levels today: 1111 and 1055. We are close to support. Buy on dips with a tight stop. We believe that Durable Goods Order could surprise significantly to the upside today and the sentiment for tomorrow's GDP is quite positive. The USD is again under pressure and commodities were picked up yesterday. One worry: Treasuries and VIX both a lot higher in the past two days. FX FX Daily stance Comment EURUSD 0/- Still look to sell rallies. 1.4830-50 immediate res lvl, target 1.4775 then 1.4700. Stop abv 1.4925. USDJPY 0 Initial suppt at 91.0, below sees 90.70-80 but seen holding for rebound back to 91.50. EURJPY 0/- Bearish developments. May find n/term suppt at 134.85 lvl but sell rallies to 135.75-85 for 134.65. GBPUSD 0/- Sell rallies to 1.6380-90 for break through 1.6335 to target 1.6250. Stop abv 1.6425. AUDUSD 0/- Break below 0.9125 suggests further weakness. Res now 0.9130, max 0.9175 before lower. Tgt 0.90. Equities Equities Daily stance Comment DAX 0/- Buy on dips towards 5590 and target 5650. Stop below 5570. FTSE100 0/+ Buy on dips towards 5173 and target 5222. Stop below 5155. S&P500 0/+ Buy on dips towards 1056 and target 1065. Stop below 1052. Nasdaq100 0/+ DJIA 0/+ Futures Commodities Daily Stance Comment Gold 0/+ Buy at the break of 1044 and target 1055. Stop below 1039. Silver 0/+ Buy on dips towards 16.55 and target 16.75. Stop below 16.40. Crude Oil 0/+ Buy on dips towards 78.50 and target 81. Stop below 77.50. FX Options FX-Options Comment USDJPY Vols went bid yesterday duo to heard behavior when EURUSD vol went bid. Mkt very keen on buying 91.90 expiring today, so we believe that level to act as a magnet on the ccy today. EURUSD Still decent talk abt the 1.49 strike expiring today. Likely to see EURUSD advance to that level for NY expiry before heading lower again. Saxo Bank Analysis Disclosure & Disclaimer Saxo Bank A/S shall not be responsible for any loss arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained. The contents of this publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Saxo Bank that clients will profit from the strategies herein or that losses in connection therewith can or will be limited. 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