Wakeup Call: Possible Retracements In Risk

Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by Saxo Bank | Nov 12 09 08:35 GMT |

Fake-break above 1101 in S&P500 and Break-Even Inflation Rates are down 3 bps. after a big rally in the past two weeks. EURUSD struggling to close above 1.50. We could see retracement today. Calendar Economic Data Releases Country Name Time (GMT) Expectation Prior Comment EC 10:00 Industrial Production MoM (SEP) 0.5% 0.9% US 13:30 Initial Jobless Claims (Nov) 510K 512K US 13:30 Continuing Claims (OCT) 5700K 5749K What's going on? Fake-break above 1101 in S&P500 and Break-Even Inflation Rates are down 3 bps. after a big rally in the past two weeks. EURUSD struggling to close above 1.50. Stock market futures and Asian markets are down. We believe that a retracement of risk is in the cards today. Sell on rallies. Also in commodities Only important data today is the E-Z Industrial Production and a Treasury auction of $16B 30-year bonds. FX FX Daily stance Comment EURUSD 0/- May struggle past 1.5020, capped max at 1.5060 for retracement lower to 1.4960 USDJPY 0/- Looks capped at 89.90-00 area. Sell for a re-test of 89.65 suppt, stop abv 90.25 EURJPY 0/- Prefer to sell rallies to 135.15-25 for a retracement back to 134.0, stop abv 135.50 GBPUSD - Expect rally to be contained at 1.6615 lvl for next leg down. Tgt 1.6490, stop abv 1.6675 AUDUSD 0/+ Buy dips to 0.9315-30 for a rebound back through 0.9370 towards 0.94, stop below 0.9270 Equities Equities Daily stance Comment DAX 0/- Sell on rallies towards 5640 targeting 5588. S/L above 5665. FTSE 0/- Sell on rallies towards 5235 targeting 5190. S/L above 5256. S&P500 0/- Sell on rallies towards 1096 targeting 1087. S/L above 1101. Nasdaq100 0/- DJIA 0/- Futures Commodities Daily Stance Comment Gold 0/- Sell at the break of 1115 and target 1100. Stop above 1120. Silver 0/- Sell at the break of 17.60 and target 17.50. Stop above 17.70. Oil (CLZ9) 0/- Sell on rallies towards 80 and target 78. Stop above 80.65 FX Options FX-Options Comment EURUSD Frontend vols mainly offered yesterday. Talk abt large 1.50 strike expiring tomorrow and latest price action point to the strike having a good hold in EURUSD AUDUSD Vols were offered from the start of the Asia session, market makers searching for bids. No clear direction on interest, look for spot to stay in range. Saxo Bank Analysis Disclosure & Disclaimer Saxo Bank A/S shall not be responsible for any loss arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained. The contents of this publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Saxo Bank that clients will profit from the strategies herein or that losses in connection therewith can or will be limited. Trades in accordance with the recommendations in an analysis, especially leveraged investments such as foreign exchange trading and investment in derivatives, can be very speculative and may result in losses as well as profits, in particular if the conditions mentioned in the analysis do not occur as anticipated. Saxo Bank utilizes financial information providers and information from such providers may form the basis for an analysis. Saxo Bank accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any information herein contained. Any recommendations and other comments in Saxo Bank's analysis derive from objective fundamental macro economical and company specific calculations, statistical and technical analysis, and subjective general market assessment. If an analysis contains recommendations to buy or sell a specific financial instrument, such recommendation should be seen as Saxo Bank's opinion that the specific instrument will respectively outperform the relevant market or underperform compared to the market. Saxo Bank's recommendations should statistically correspond to an even distribution between buy and sell recommendations. The recommendations may expire promptly due to market volatility and in general, Saxo Bank does not anticipate its recommendations to be valid more than one month. An analysis will be updated if and only if a market development or other issues relevant to the analysis render a new analysis on the same topic relevant. Saxo Bank's analysis does not cover any specific financial product over time but only products which Saxo Bank's strategy team finds it important to cover at any given point in time. In order to prevent conflicts of interest, Saxo Bank has established appropriate business procedures, incl. procedures applicable to research and analysis to ensure objective research reports. Saxo Bank's research reports have not been discussed with the parties, e.g. issuers of securities, mentioned in the analysis. Saxo Bank is under supervision by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority. Saxo Bank does not engage in corporate finance activities and accordingly, Saxo Bank's employees, incl. the persons responsible for an analysis, do not receive remuneration associated with investment banking transactions.