Europe Industrial Output Declines on Consumer Goods

By Simone Meier

Dec. 14 (Bloomberg) -- European industrial output fell for the first time in six months in October, led by a slump in demand for consumer goods. Employment declined in the third quarter.

Production in the economy of the 16 euro nations dropped 0.6 percent from September, when it gained 0.2 percent, the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg said today. Economists forecast a decline of 0.7 percent, the median of 30 estimates in a Bloomberg survey showed. Euro-region employment fell 0.5 percent in the third quarter from the previous three months, according to a separate report by the office.

The euro-region economy may struggle to gather strength after emerging from the worst recession in more than six decades in the third quarter as a stronger euro hurts exports just as rising unemployment erodes consumer spending. In Germany, Europe’s largest economy, investor confidence dropped in November.

“There are increasing signs that demand is weakening a little bit after an initial surge,” said Christoph Weil, an economist at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt. “It’s a recovery with a foot on the brake. Indicators will continue to point upward, but we’ll see a phase of disillusionment.”

The euro was little changed against the dollar after the data, trading at $1.4668 at 10:01 a.m. in London, up 0.4 percent on the day. The yield on the German 10-year benchmark bond dropped 0.3 basis point to 3.17 percent.

European Payrolls

October output dropped 11.1 percent from the year-earlier month after declining 12.8 percent in September, today’s report said. European payrolls fell 2.1 percent in the year.

European companies may keep spending plans on hold as the euro’s ascent makes their goods less competitive abroad. The single currency has gained 18 percent against the dollar since mid-February. Europe’s jobless rate has risen to 9.8 percent, the highest since December 1998.

European output of non-durable consumer goods dropped 1.6 percent in the month after rising 0.7 percent in September, today’s report showed. Production of durable consumer goods fell 1.4 percent, while energy output slipped 0.3 percent. Production of capital goods such as factory machinery was unchanged.

“I should like to warn against overly great optimism,” Martin Winterkorn, chief executive officer of Volkswagen AG, Europe’s largest carmaker, said earlier this month. “It would be premature now to call the end of the crisis. The recovery that’s emerging right now is a recovery on probation.”

Gathering Strength

The global economy is gathering strength after central banks cut interest rates to near zero and governments pledged $2 trillion in stimulus measures. The European Central Bank said on Dec. 3 it expects the euro region to expand about 0.8 percent in 2010 instead of a previously forecast 0.2 percent. In 2011, the economy may grow 1.2 percent, the bank said.

Daimler AG, the world’s second-largest maker of luxury cars, said on Dec. 7 that the Mercedes-Benz cars unit’s fourth- quarter sales will rise “significantly.” Alstom SA, which makes high-speed trains and energy-generation equipment, sees “some businesses doing better and they will eventually rebound,” CEO Patrick Kron said on Dec. 2.

ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said on Dec. 3 that the bank will scale back its emergency financing operations next year after the economy emerged from the recession. The recovery will “likely be uneven,” he said that day.

“It’s very clear that there won’t be any easy and rapid recovery in the world economy,” ECB council member Erkki Liikanen told Bloomberg News in an interview on Dec. 11. The recovery is “slow and shaky.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Simone Meier in Dublin at smeier@bloombert.net