German Exports Rise More Than Economists Forecast

By Frances Robinson

Jan. 8 (Bloomberg) -- German exports rose more than economists forecast in November as the recovery in global trade drove demand for goods from Europe’s largest economy.

Sales abroad, adjusted for working days and seasonal changes, increased 1.6 percent from October, when they gained 1.9 percent, the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said today. Economists had forecast an increase of 0.8 percent, the median of eight estimates in a Bloomberg News survey showed. Exports still declined 3.1 percent from a year earlier.

The Bundesbank said last month that the outlook for the German economy has brightened in recent months after growth accelerated in the third quarter. Exports may rise as much as 10 percent in 2010 after an 18 percent slump in 2009, the BGA exporters’ association said on Dec. 30.

“Germany is benefiting from investment and spending in Asia, as well as infrastructure spending in the U.S.,” said Carsten Brzeski, an economist at ING Group in Brussels. “This is really an industry and export-driven recovery.”

The euro was little changed today at $1.4313 as of 8:05 a.m. in Frankfurt from $1.4308 yesterday.

‘Beyond Expectations’

Imports fell 5.9 percent in November from October, the statistics office said. The trade surplus widened to 17.4 billion euros ($25 billion) from a revised 13.4 billion euros in October.

The surplus in the current account, a measure of all trade including services, was 18.1 billion euros, up from a revised 11.1 billion euros the previous month.

Volkswagen AG said yesterday that sales in China rose 37 percent to a record 1.4 million vehicles in 2009 as government stimulus measures spurred demand. The country’s auto market “went beyond everybody’s expectations” last year, said Winfried Vahland, Volkswagen’s China president.

Still, the slump in exports last year meant that China overtook Germany as the world’s top exporter, data compiled by Columbia, South Carolina-based GTI showed. Exports from China exceeded German shipments every month since April, according to the Jan. 6 report.

The Bundesbank on Dec. 4 raised its German growth forecasts, projecting expansion of 1.6 percent this year. The country’s Ifo economic institute also increased its outlook last month, saying exports will rebound and government tax cuts will boost consumer spending. It sees the economy, Europe’s largest, expanding 1.7 percent this year and 1.2 percent in 2011.

To contact the reporter on this story: Frances Robinson in Frankfurt at frobinson6@bloomberg.net