By Jennifer Ryan
Jan. 12 (Bloomberg) -- A U.K. house-price gauge showed the property market unexpectedly lost momentum in December as inquiries from new buyers to browse homes slipped.
The number of real-estate agents saying prices rose exceeded those reporting declines by 30 percentage points, down from 35 points in November, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said in its monthly survey today. Economists predicted 37 points, according to the median of 14 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey.
The report suggests the U.K. property market’s pickup from the slump that shaved as much as 20 percent off values is starting to fade. House prices will be flat this year, Lloyds Banking Group Plc’s Halifax unit said Jan. 7. Prime Minister Gordon Brown is counting on stronger economic growth to help revive his popularity before a general election which must be held by June.
“What all this is suggesting is the sugar rush or pent up demand that helped housing to rebound is running out of steam,” Alan Clarke, an economist at BNP Paribas in London, said in a note today. “This series was the best early warning signal that the housing market was going to bounce back. Unfortunately, our charts suggest there is further downside for enquiries.”
Housing-Market Slack
The sales-to-stock ratio, a measure of slack in the housing market, was little changed at 30.5, close to the highest since Dec. 2007, the report showed. Average sales per surveyor over the last three months rose to 19.1 from 19.
Seven of 12 regions tracked by RICS showed price increases in the past three months, and the rest had declines. The biggest gain was in London and the southeast of England, where the net balance of surveyors saying prices increased was at 41 points.
U.K. house prices rose 0.6 percent in November from a year earlier, the Department for Communities and Local Government said separately today. On the month, prices increased 1.7 percent, the DCLG said in a statement on its Web site.
“New inquiries are continuing to outpace new instructions which is helping to push house prices higher,” Jeremy Leaf, spokesman for RICS, said in a statement. “The recent loss of momentum in prices and the moderation in new buyer interest can be in part attributed to the housing market pulling down its shutters for Christmas.”
Bank of England policy maker Kate Barker said on Dec. 16 that she is “surprised” by the pickup in house prices and predicted the recovery may stall in 2010. London-based research group Hometrack said last month that prices will decline this year as rising unemployment and concern about government spending cuts limit demand.
Retail Sales
A separate British Retail Consortium survey released today showed total sales rose 6 percent in December from a year earlier, the most for the month since 2005. Same-store sales increased 4.2 percent on the year, compared with a 3.3 percent drop in December last year after the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. deepened the recession.
“These are stronger figures than we dared hope for,” Stephen Robertson, director general of the London-based BRC, said in a statement. “Customers clearly felt more confident about spending than they have for some time.”
British lenders reduced the cost of mortgages for a third month in December as the Bank of England kept the benchmark interest rate at a record low and maintained its 200-billion pound ($322 billion) bond-purchase program to try and cement the economic recovery. The U.K. economy contracted 0.2 percent in the third quarter, extending the slump to a sixth quarter.
To contact the reporter on this story: Jennifer Ryan in London at jryan13@bloomberg.net
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment