By Yee Kai Pin
Feb. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil may pull back below $73 a barrel even if the market retraces two weeks of losses and climbs back above $78, National Australia Bank Ltd. said.
Oil, which fell in January in its first monthly decline since July, is “on the defensive” after technical support marked by two short-term moving averages was breached, said Gordon Manning, a Sydney-based technical analyst at Australia’s fourth-largest bank. While prices are rebounding, the risk remains skewed to the downside, he said.
“Enough pressure’s come out of the market, but I’m not convinced that the bounce will have much in it,” Manning said today in a telephone interview. “I could see oil getting back to $78 to $79. That wouldn’t surprise me, but any rally is going to conk out.”
Crude oil futures lost 8.2 percent in January, the most since December 2008, amid concern the recovery in global fuel demand would slow. The contract for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange was at $74.76 a barrel in electronic trading, up 33 cents, at 1:09 p.m. Singapore time, after data yesterday showed manufacturing expanded in the U.S. and Europe.
Futures reached $72.43 a barrel on Jan. 29, the lowest in more than five weeks, after chart readings slipped below the 21- day and 30-day moving averages. Should oil hold off from those lows over the first half of this month, the chances for a sustained recovery will be improved, he suggested.
“If within two weeks’ time we’re still around these levels and haven’t broken to new lows, I would think there’s a chance we’re going into a bigger ‘sideways’ period -- with risks to the upside coming back,” Manning said.
To contact the reporter on this story: Yee Kai Pin in Singapore at kyee13@bloomberg.net
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment