March 31 (Bloomberg) -- David Cote, chief executive officer of Honeywell International Inc., talks with Judy Woodruff about the outlook for the U.S. economy and the crude oil market. (This is an excerpt from "Conversations With Judy Woodruff," which airs weekends on Bloomberg Television. Source: Bloomberg)
March 31 (Bloomberg) -- Anthony Dwyer, chief equity strategist at Collins Stewart, talks about the outlook for Federal Reserve monetary policy. Dwyer also discusses tomorrow's U.S. jobs report for March, the U.S. economy and stocks. He speaks with Matt Miller, Adam Johnson, Julie Hyman and Sheila Dharmarajan on Bloomberg Television's "Street Smart." (Source: Bloomberg)
March 31 (Bloomberg) -- Anthony Crescenzi of Pacific Investment Management Co. talks about the outlook for the financial industry, demand for U.S. Treasuries and the state of the labor market. He speaks with Matt Miller on Bloomberg Television's "Street Smart." (Source: Bloomberg)
The pickup in U.S. employment was probably sustained in March, and factory assembly lines kept humming, showing that a jump in fuel costs has yet to choke the expansion, economists said before reports today.
Payrolls increased by 190,000 workers last month after a 192,000 advance in February that was the biggest in nine months, according to the median forecast of 83 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Manufacturing may have expanded at about the same pace as in February, the strongest month in almost seven years.
Record exports and gains in business and consumer spending are prompting companies like Chrysler Group LLC and Kohl’s Corp. (KSS) to boost staff, helping the U.S. weather the highest energy prices in more than two years. The improving economy encouraged Federal Reserve policy makers last month to signal they were unlikely to extend bond purchases beyond June.
“The improving trend in employment is a bright spot,” said Sal Guatieri, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto. “The private sector is picking up its hiring. The economy is on a firmer footing, but not yet on a firm footing.”
The Labor Department’s jobs numbers are due at 8:30 a.m. in Washington. Bloomberg survey estimates ranged from payroll increases of 150,000 to 295,000.
Private payrolls are forecast to rise by 208,000 in March after a 222,000 gain, according to the survey median, the biggest back-to-back increase since 2006. Manufacturing payrolls are forecast to rise by 30,000.
Jobless Outlook
Unemployment probably held at 8.9 percent, the lowest level in almost two years, according to the survey median. The rate dropped by 0.9 percentage point over the prior three months, the biggest decline in such a time span since 1983.
The March jobs reading will likely be the first of the year that wasn’t skewed by weather. Winter storms constrained payrolls in January, prompting a February rebound when temperatures were closer to normal for the month.
A report from the Tempe, Arizona-based Institute for Supply Management at 10 a.m. will show the purchasers’ factory index fell to 61 last month from 61.4 in February, its highest level since May 2004. The gauge climbed over 50, signaling growth, in August 2009, two months after the recession ended.
The manufacturing industries that account for 11 percent of the economy are likely to remain at the forefront of the recovery as businesses replenish inventories, the auto industry rebounds and China and other emerging markets boost imports of U.S.-made goods.
Auto Demand
Auto sales, after climbing for six consecutive months, reached the highest level in more than a year in February. Demand at General Motors Co. (GM), Chrysler and Toyota Motor Corp. (TOYOF) exceeded analysts’ estimates.
Chrysler, aiming for its first net profit since emerging from bankruptcy in 2009, plans to hire 1,000 engineers and high- tech workers for its small and midsized vehicles. The Auburn Hills, Michigan-based company is also urging its dealers to hire more salesmen and service workers to help boost sales 32 percent this year.
“Hiring additional personnel in preparation for the spring market is essential for success in 2011,” Peter Grady, vice president of Chrysler’s network development and fleet, said in a memo to dealers last month.
Kohl’s said this week that it plans to open a new e- commerce distribution center in Edgewood, Maryland, in July and hire 1,200 workers over the next three years.
Fuel Costs
Oil prices that closed at $106.72 yesterday, the highest since September 2008, may keep climbing should Middle East political turmoil continue unabated, raising the risk that consumer spending will slow in coming months.
U.S. companies are also still trying to gauge the effects of the March 11 earthquake in Japan and the subsequent nuclear crisis on international supply chains. Toyota expects assembly interruptions that may affect North America plants.
The Fed, after its latest policy meeting March 15, pledged to continue its program of purchasing $600 billion of bonds by June, in order to “promote a stronger pace of economic recovery.” Policy makers also said the economy was on “firmer footing” and acknowledged a rise in commodity prices, signaling deflation risk had diminished and they were unlikely to expand the bond purchase plan.
The housing industry that led the economy into recession in December 2007 remains a weak link in the recovery. Construction spending, due at 10 a.m., fell 0.2 percent in February after a 0.7 percent decline the prior month, economists forecast the Commerce Department will report.
Bloomberg Survey ============================================================== Nonfarm Private Unemploy ISM Payrolls Payrolls Rate Manu ,000’s ,000’s % Index ============================================================== Date of Release 04/01 04/01 04/01 04/01 Observation Period March March March March -------------------------------------------------------------- Median 190 208 8.9% 61.0 Average 196 214 8.9% 61.0 High Forecast 295 315 9.1% 64.0 Low Forecast 150 165 8.7% 59.0 Number of Participants 83 42 80 79 Previous 192 222 8.9% 61.4 -------------------------------------------------------------- 4CAST Ltd. 215 240 8.9% 60.8 ABN Amro Inc. 210 230 8.9% 61.0 Action Economics 185 --- 8.9% 60.0 Aletti Gestielle 190 205 8.9% 61.5 Ameriprise Financial 210 235 8.9% 59.8 Banesto 220 --- --- 61.1 Bank of Tokyo- Mitsubishi 170 187 8.8% 61.9 Bantleon Bank AG 180 --- 9.0% 61.3 Barclays Capital 175 190 8.9% 62.0 Bayerische Landesbank 180 --- 8.9% 61.2 BBVA 195 220 8.9% 62.5 BMO Capital Markets 230 --- 8.9% 61.5 BNP Paribas 180 --- 9.0% 61.0 BofA Merrill Lynch 160 185 9.0% 59.5 Briefing.com 175 200 9.0% 59.0 Capital Economics 175 --- 8.9% 60.0 CIBC World Markets 230 --- 8.9% 59.5 Citi 250 265 9.0% 59.0 ClearView Economics 200 230 9.0% 60.0 Commerzbank AG 200 --- 8.9% 61.0 Credit Agricole CIB 180 --- 8.9% 62.0 Credit Suisse 200 --- 8.9% 61.4 DekaBank 180 --- 9.0% 61.5 Desjardins Group 155 --- 9.0% 62.0 Deutsche Bank Securities 200 --- 8.9% 60.0 Deutsche Postbank AG 190 --- 8.9% 60.5 Exane 230 --- 9.0% 61.0 Fact & Opinion Economics 235 --- 8.9% 61.5 First Trust Advisors 165 185 8.8% 61.2 FTN Financial 200 225 8.9% 61.0 Goldman, Sachs & Co. 175 --- 8.9% 60.0 Helaba 200 --- 8.9% 60.0 High Frequency Economics 175 200 --- --- HSBC Markets 175 190 8.9% 60.0 Hugh Johnson Advisors 180 --- 9.0% 62.0 IDEAglobal 250 265 8.8% 63.0 IHS Global Insight 160 175 8.9% 61.6 Informa Global Markets 175 --- 8.9% 61.7 ING Financial Markets 170 185 8.9% 61.6 Intesa-SanPaulo 200 --- 8.9% 61.5 ITG Investment Research 185 200 --- --- J.P. Morgan Chase 185 200 8.9% 61.0 Janney Montgomery Scott 201 222 8.9% 59.8 Jefferies & Co. 240 260 8.8% 62.0 Landesbank Berlin 250 --- 9.0% 62.0 Landesbank BW 280 --- 8.8% 62.0 Maria Fiorini Ramirez 225 240 8.9% 60.0 MET Capital Advisors 200 --- 8.9% 62.0 MF Global 175 195 9.0% 61.5 Mizuho Securities 175 --- 8.9% 60.0 Moody’s Analytics 190 200 9.0% 60.7 Morgan Keegan & Co. 162 --- 8.9% --- Morgan Stanley & Co. 180 --- 9.0% 61.0 National Bank Financial 150 --- 9.0% 61.0 Natixis 180 --- 8.9% 60.5 Newedge 200 230 8.9% 61.6 Nomura Securities 225 --- 8.9% 61.6 Nord/LB 180 210 8.9% 59.0 OSK Group/DMG 190 --- 9.0% 60.6 Paragon Research 220 --- 9.0% --- Parthenon Group 246 --- 8.9% 60.5 Pierpont Securities 210 225 8.9% 61.8 PineBridge Investments 235 --- 8.9% 61.5 PNC Bank 220 222 9.1% 62.5 Prestige Economics 165 180 8.9% 61.0 Raiffeisenbank International 185 210 8.9% 61.4 Raymond James 165 190 8.9% 62.2 RBC Capital Markets 168 180 8.8% 62.7 RBS Securities Inc. 180 200 9.0% 61.0 Scotia Capital 170 --- 8.9% 60.5 Societe Generale 295 315 8.7% 62.0 Standard Chartered 195 230 8.9% 64.0 State Street Global Markets 192 206 8.9% 60.4 Stone & McCarthy Research 150 165 8.8% 62.0 TD Securities 200 210 9.0% 62.0 UBS 205 225 8.8% 62.0 UniCredit Research 160 --- 9.1% 60.0 Union Investment 201 --- 8.8% 61.0 University of Maryland 163 183 8.9% 60.2 Wells Fargo & Co. 220 --- 8.8% 60.0 WestLB AG 195 --- 8.9% 60.0 Westpac Banking Co. 160 --- 9.1% 59.0 Wrightson ICAP 275 290 8.8% 60.5 ==============================================================
To contact the reporter on this story: Bob Willis in Washington at bwillis@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Christopher Wellisz at cwellisz@bloomberg.net
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