By Jeanne Cummings - Oct 12, 2011 12:01 PM GMT+0700
Mitt Romney left the stage of last night’s Republican presidential debate on the economy as he entered: a cautious front-runner, not prone to mistakes, who has yet to win the backing of at least 70 percent of his party.
With four of his seven Republican challengers at a debate table in Hanover, New Hampshire, directing questions at him, Romney’s was the voice viewers and listeners heard the most.
For 10 minutes, the former Massachusetts governor explained the goals of his economic recovery plan and his record in the private sector on job creation, and he defended the health-care overhaul he signed into law as an appropriate remedy for his state.
“I’m not running for governor of Massachusetts,” Romney said in the debate at Dartmouth College sponsored by Bloomberg News, the Washington Post and WBIN-TV in New Hampshire. “I’m running for president of the United States.”
It was the sort of sharp, declarative statement that can resonate with voters.
The challenge for Romney was Herman Cain, seated next to him, who used humor to promote his plan to replace the tax code with one that imposes 9 percent rates on individuals, sales and corporations.
“I think Romney and Cain win,” said Greg Mueller, president of CRC Public Relations and a Republican strategist who is close to the anti-tax Tea Party movement. “Romney, because this is yet another debate in which none of the other candidates challenged his past record more broadly.”
‘9-9-9’
Cain scored well, Mueller said, because much of the debate focused on his tax proposal, nicknamed “9-9-9.” It was mentioned 15 times.
“When all the other candidates are talking about your plan, and you defend it well, which he did, you win. The others look envious,” said Mueller, who isn’t affiliated with a campaign.
In a Bloomberg National Poll in September, Romney’s support stood at 22 percent among Republicans and independents leaning Republican, second to Texas Governor Rick Perry’s 26 percent. In a Bloomberg/Washington Post pre-debate poll released Oct. 10, he was at the top of the pack with 24 percent support.
In all of the public surveys taken since last November, Romney’s support broke 30 percent in only two polls in June. An analysis by Real Clear Politics, a Washington-based nonpartisan organization that tracks polling data, put Romney’s average support today at 22 percent, which is enough to put him first place but far from securing a majority backing by his party.
Roller-Coaster
Republican voters’ lack of enthusiasm for Romney has added to the roller-coaster nature of the primary, as voter swings in the polls provided temporary spikes of support for, first, Minnesota Representative Michele Bachmann, then Perry, and now Cain.
Alex Castellanos, a Republican political adviser who hasn’t joined a campaign, said Romney’s standing will improve once primary voting is officially engaged. “You have to beat somebody to become somebody,” he said. “Elections don’t pick candidates, they make candidates.”
Until then, Romney’s best opportunities to sell his second candidacy for president have been at the seven debates held thus far.
At last night’s event, Romney highlighted issues important to Republican primary voters. He vowed to challenge China’s “currency manipulation” on his first day in office, maintained opposition to tax increases, and called for a balanced budget amendment -- drawing applause from the audience.
Mostly Sure-Footed
Romney’s sure-footedness wavered only once, when he was pressed to explain why he supported the bank bailouts in 2008 and is now opposing some future rescues.
“The idea of trying to bail out an institution to protect the shareholders or to protect a certain interest group, that’s a terrible idea, and that shouldn’t happen,” he said. “You do want to make sure that we don’t lose the country and we don’t lose our financial system and we don’t lose American jobs, and that all the banks don’t go under,” he added.
When it came his time to ask another candidate a question, Romney avoided a confrontation with his closest rivals -- Cain and Perry -- and asked Bachmann how she’d change taxes to create jobs. The query wasn’t tough; it was strategic, as Romney avoided using his question to give more speaking time to a more threatening opponent.
“I don’t think Mitt has closed the deal,” said Mike Murphy, a former campaign adviser to 2008 Republican presidential nominee John McCain of Arizona who is uncommitted in the 2012 race. “Once he starts winning primaries, he will do better. All things considered, I’d rather be Romney right now.”
Growing Support
Among his reasons, said Murphy, is that, while Romney’s lead in national polls is small, he has been building more support in some of the states that matter most and knitting together a path to the nomination.
According to an Oct. 3-5 poll by NBC News and the Marist Institute of Public Opinion, based in Poughkeepsie, New York, Romney leads the field in Iowa, the first primary caucus site, with 26 percent support, compared to 20 percent for Cain and 11 percent for Perry.
In New Hampshire, which holds the first primary election, the NBC/Marist poll showed Romney with 45 percent support among Republicans, compared to 13 percent for Cain and 7 percent for Perry.
In South Carolina, the third state to weigh into the nomination race, a Sept. 11-18 survey by Winthrop University, based in Rock Hill, showed Romney with 27 percent support, closing the gap with Perry’s 31 percent. And in Florida, the biggest early primary state, a Sept. 29 poll by Miami-based Survey USA put Romney in the lead with 23 percent, followed by Perry at 19 percent and Cain at 17 percent.
Challenging Obama
“At the end of the day, it’s not who you fall in love with that will decide the nomination; it’s who can beat Obama, and I believe he will,” said John Feehery, a former aide to Republican Speaker Dennis Hastert of Illinois who isn’t affiliated with a presidential campaign.
Given the reluctance of the party’s base activists to rally around Romney’s candidacy, Feehery said “he’s got to grind down his opponents. Everyone doesn’t have to love him. They have to respect him.”
Romney will have the ability to do that because of his fundraising strength compared to the rest of the field.
Fundraising Strength
In his first disclosure report, Romney reported raising $18.5 million; his second report, which will be filed with the Federal Election Commission on Oct. 15, is expected to show he raised about $13 million in the third quarter period that ended Sept. 30.
Perry is the only other candidate to show the same level of fundraising strength. A day after New Jersey Governor Chris Christie said on Oct. 4 he wouldn’t seek the nomination, Perry’s campaign announced that he’d raised $17 million in the seven weeks since he entered the race on Aug. 13.
“They came out early because it was a good number and they wanted to show he could be competitive,” said Anthony Corrado, a campaign finance expert at Colby College in Waterville, Maine.
Perry’s announcement was also timed to stop a shift of Christie backers, including major fundraisers, to the Romney campaign, Corrado said. Yesterday, Christie endorsed Romney.
Early Primaries
Florida’s decision to move its primary to Jan. 31 could also work to Romney’s advantage. In the wake of that decision, Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada began debating new and earlier dates for their primary events. Iowa, for instance, is likely to move its caucuses to Jan. 3.
The truncated calendar is shortening the time candidates have to raise money before the voting begins, while increasing such costs as travel to and advertising in Florida. According to Corrado, the candidates will need between $15 million and $20 million in the bank by the end of December in order to compete in most of the five January primaries and caucuses.
“Ultimately, the battle for the nomination will be between Mitt Romney and someone else,” Dave Carney, a Perry adviser, said after the debate. “Our goal is to make us that someone else.”
To contact the reporter on this story: Jeanne Cummings in Washington at jcummings21@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Mark Silva at msilva34@bloomberg.net
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