Economic Calendar

Tuesday, October 4, 2011

Stocks, Commodities Drop on Europe Concern; Bunds Gain, Dollar Strengthens

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By Stephen Kirkland and Shiyin Chen - Oct 4, 2011 4:35 PM GMT+0700

The euro touched the lowest level in more than a decade against the yen. Photographer: Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg

Oct. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Alex Au, Hong Kong-based managing director of Richland Capital Management Ltd., talks about the outlook for Hong Kong and South Korea stocks. Au speaks with Rishaad Salamat on Bloomberg Television's "On the Move Asia." (Source: Bloomberg)


Stocks dropped and an index of raw materials fell to a 10-month low as European leaders signaled they may renegotiate terms of Greece’s bailout. U.S. index futures declined, while German bonds and the dollar gained.

The MSCI All Country World Index sank 1.3 percent at 10:30 a.m. in London. S&P 500 futures slipped 0.6 percent. The S&P GSCI index of 24 commodities retreated 1.1 percent, led by nickel, copper and oil. The German bund yield decreased nine basis points, its fourth straight decline, while the Dollar Index advanced 0.3 percent.

European finance chiefs meeting yesterday considered “technical revisions” for a second Greek bailout, Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker said today, fueling concern bondholders may have to take bigger losses on the nation’s debt. U.S. factory orders probably stalled in August, economists said before a Commerce Department report. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. cut its global growth forecasts and predicted recessions in Germany and France.

“The rot has spread to every corner of the global markets,” said Bill Blain, co-head of strategy at Newedge Group, a London-based brokerage. “The taint of fear is dragging down most assets, with indecision running rife.”

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index retreated 2.2 percent as all 19 industry groups declined. Dexia SA (DEXB), Belgium’s biggest bank by assets, tumbled 22 percent after its board asked the company to solve its “structural problems.” Germany’s DAX Index dropped 3 percent, France’s CAC 40 declined 2.6 percent and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 slipped 2.2 percent. Greece’s ASE plunged 4.1 percent to the lowest since 1993.

Bernanke Testimony

The S&P 500 slumped 2.9 percent yesterday to 1,099.23, the lowest since September 2010 and the exact closing level as on the same day three years ago.

U.S. factory orders were little changed in August, after a 2.4 percent gain the prior month, according to the median of 68 economists’ forecasts in a Bloomberg survey. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke is scheduled to testify today to a congressional panel about the economic outlook. The 30-year Treasury yield increased two basis points to 2.75 percent.

The yield on the Greek two-year note jumped 87 basis points, with the 10-year yield climbing four basis points. That drove the difference in yield over benchmark bunds 11 basis points higher to 20.92 percentage points.

As far as private sector involvement in a bailout is concerned, “we have to take into account that we have experienced changes since the decision we have taken on July 21,” Juncker told reporters today after chairing a meeting of euro finance chiefs in Luxembourg. “These are technical revisions we are discussing.”

Record Default Risk

Italian 10-year debt yields fell two basis points, with two-year yields dropping four basis points. The European Central Bank bought Italian government securities today, according to three people with knowledge of the transactions. A spokeswoman for the ECB declined to comment.

Credit-default swaps on Germany increased 3.5 basis points to 121.5 basis points, an all-time high, according to CMA. Swaps on banks also soared, with the Markit iTraxx Financial Index jumping 17 basis points to 306, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. The record is 314 basis points, set on Sept. 12.

The euro traded little changed at $1.3187, after weakening to the lowest level since January. The Dollar Index, which tracks the U.S. currency against those of six trading partners, rose 0.1 percent, its third gain.

Australia Rates

Australia’s dollar slumped against all 16 most-traded peers tracked by Bloomberg, falling to the lowest level in more than a year versus the U.S. currency, after the nation’s central bank signaled it has scope to lower its benchmark interest rate. Governor Glenn Stevens held the overnight cash rate target at 4.75 percent, matching the prediction of all 22 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

The GSCI index of 24 commodities fell as much as 1.3 percent to the lowest since Dec. 1. Nickel dropped 2.8 percent, copper declined 2 percent and oil in New York retreated 1.7 percent to $76.33 a barrel. Gold rose 0.4 percent to $1,668 an ounce.

The MSCI Emerging Market Index slid 2.1 percent, extending a decline from its May 2 high to 31 percent. South Korea’s Kospi Index (KOSPI) sank 3.6 percent after the market was closed yesterday for a holiday. The MSCI China Index slumped 3.5 percent. PKN Orlen, Poland’s largest oil refiner, led the WIG20 Index down 2.7 percent after saying it will probably post losses of “several hundred million” zloty in the third quarter from revaluation of foreign-currency debt. Benchmark gauges in Russia, the Czech Republic, Thailand and Indonesia fell more than 2 percent.

To contact the reporters on this story: Stephen Kirkland in London at skirkland@bloomberg.net; Shiyin Chen in Singapore at schen37@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Justin Carrigan at jcarrigan@bloomberg.net


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