Economic Calendar

Thursday, November 17, 2011

U.S. Banks Face Europe Contagion Risk: Fitch

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By Dakin Campbell - Nov 17, 2011 8:47 AM GMT+0700

U.S. banks face a “serious risk” that their creditworthiness will deteriorate if Europe’s debt crisis deepens and spreads beyond the five most-troubled nations, Fitch Ratings said.

“Unless the euro zone debt crisis is resolved in a timely and orderly manner, the broad credit outlook for the U.S. banking industry could worsen,” the New York-based rating company said yesterday in a statement. Even as U.S. banks have “manageable” exposure to stressed European markets, “further contagion poses a serious risk,” Fitch said, without explaining what it meant by contagion.

The “exposures” of U.S. lenders to major European banks and the stressed nations of Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain, known as the GIIPS, are smaller than those to some of the continent’s larger countries, Fitch said.

The six biggest U.S. banks -- JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), Bank of America Corp. (BAC), Citigroup Inc. (C), Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC), Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley (MS) -- had $50 billion in risk tied to the GIIPS on Sept. 30, Fitch said. So-called cross-border outstandings to France for all except Wells Fargo were $188 billion, including $114 billion to French banks. Risk to Britain and its banks was $225 billion and $51 billion, respectively.

Europe’s debt crisis has toppled four elected governments, with the last two, in Greece and Italy, falling last week. Italian bond yields remained at about 7 percent -- the threshold that led Greece, Portugal and Ireland to seek bailouts -- and shares of French banks, including BNP Paribas (BNP) SA and Societe Generale (GLE) SA, dropped amid concern they’ll need more capital.

Stocks Slump

U.S. stocks slumped after the report. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slid 1.7 percent and the 24-company KBW Bank Index declined 1.9 percent.

While U.S. banks have hedged some of their risk with credit-default swaps, those may not be effective if voluntary debt forgiveness becomes “more prevalent” and the insurance provisions of the instruments aren’t triggered, Fitch said in the report. The top five U.S. banks had $22 billion in hedges tied to stressed markets, according to Fitch.

Disclosure practices also make it difficult to gauge U.S. banks’ risk, Fitch said. Firms including Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan don’t provide a full picture of potential losses and gains in the event of a European default, giving only net numbers or excluding some derivatives altogether.

Guarantees provided by U.S. lenders on government, bank and corporate debt in Greece, Italy, Ireland, Portugal and Spain rose by $80.7 billion to $518 billion in the first half of 2011, according to the Bank for International Settlements.

Also yesterday, Moody’s Investors Service downgraded the senior debt and deposit ratings of 10 German public-sector banks, citing its assumption that “there is now a lower likelihood” that the lenders would get external support.

To contact the reporter on this story: Dakin Campbell in New York at dcampbell27@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Rick Green at rgreen18@bloomberg.net




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