Gingrich Surges in Iowa Poll as Cain Exits

By John McCormick - Dec 4, 2011 12:00 PM GMT+0700

Former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich of Georgia holds a lead in a poll released yesterday in Iowa, where the first Republican presidential nomination votes will be cast a month from now.

Gingrich has the support of 25 percent of likely caucus participants in the latest Iowa Poll from the Des Moines Register newspaper. U.S. Representative Ron Paul of Texas was next, with 18 percent, followed by former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney at 16 percent. Sixty percent of poll participants said they could change their minds, while 11 percent said they’re undecided before the Jan. 3 caucuses.

“What Romney has going for him is that neither Gingrich or Paul have dealt with much scrutiny,” said J. Ann Selzer, president of West Des Moines-based Selzer & Co., which conducted the Register’s poll. “This is still anyone’s game.”

Gingrich has the potential to increase his support in Iowa, the newspaper said in its report. More respondents choose him as their second choice than any other candidate.

U.S. Representative Michele Bachmann of Minnesota recorded support from 8 percent, the same showing as Herman Cain, the former chief executive of Godfather’s Pizza Inc. who yesterday dropped out of the race.

Texas Governor Rick Perry has work to do in Iowa if he wants to regain his standing in the race, the poll shows. He has support from 6 percent of likely caucus-goers.

Santorum, Huntsman

Former Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, who has spent more time in Iowa than any other candidate, also stood at 6 percent. And former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman Jr., who isn’t actively competing in Iowa, was backed by 2 percent.

The survey of 401 likely Republican caucus participants was conducted Nov. 27-30 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

A Bloomberg News poll in Iowa done Nov. 10-12 by the same polling company used by the Register showed Gingrich, Paul and Romney in a dead heat with Cain, all at around 20 percent.

In the latest poll, Cain’s support had fallen to 8 percent even before he announced he would be ending his campaign because of what he said was excessive media attention to allegations of improper sexual conduct on his part.

Cain’s exit could further benefit Gingrich. Among Cain’s backers in the Bloomberg poll, Gingrich was the second choice of 28 percent, followed by Perry at 23 percent. Romney and Paul were each the second choice of 14 percent of Cain supporters.

Gingrich Opens Office

Gingrich, 68, opened his first campaign office in Iowa on Nov. 30, the last major candidate to do so.

Romney, 64, has also ramped up his efforts in Iowa in recent weeks, after taking a below-the-radar approach to the state for much of the year, as he sought to manage expectations.

One of Romney’s highest-profile surrogates, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, is set to visit Iowa on Dec. 7, roughly a week after his campaign started television advertising there.

Romney yesterday also picked up the endorsement of the Sioux City Journal, a newspaper that circulates in northwest Iowa, a heavily Republican area.

In his 2008 presidential bid, after an all-out effort to win the caucuses, Romney finished second behind former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee. Social conservatives who dominate the Republican caucuses balked at Romney’s past support of abortion rights and a Massachusetts health-care law he signed. His caucus loss helped derail his candidacy.

This election season, those conservatives have yet to rally around a contender, creating the prospect that they could divide their support among all the other candidates and create an opening for Romney.

To contact the reporter on this story: John McCormick in Chicago at jmccormick16@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Mark Silva at msilva34@bloomberg.net