North Korea Threatens South, Tells World Expect No Change From Kim Jong Un

By Sangwon Yoon - Dec 31, 2011 8:06 AM GMT+0700

North Korea warned the world not to expect change from the regime under new leader Kim Jong Un and threatened a “roar of revenge” against South Korean President Lee Myung Bak as Kim was appointed head of the army.

Lee had provoked North Korea by raising security alerts and declining to send an official mission to pay condolences after the Dec. 17 death of Kim Jong Il, the National Defense Commission said in a statement carried by the state-run Korean Central News Agency yesterday. The release came a day after North Korea ended a mourning period for Kim’s death.

“The veritable sea of tears shed by the army and people of the DPRK will turn into that of retaliatory fire to burn all the group of traitors to the last one,” the statement said, echoing rhetoric during Kim Jong Il’s rule. “The DPRK will have no dealings with the Lee Myung Bak group of traitors forever.” DPRK refers to the country’s official name, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.

Both Kim Jong Un and Lee face leadership tests that could shape their attitude toward engagement. Kim Jong Un needs to cement his grip on power in a country where the United Nations says one-third of the children are physically stunted from a lack of nutrition. Lee and his ruling party, which rolled back the “Sunshine Policy” of engagement with the nuclear-armed North, have dropped in opinion polls ahead of elections next year.

Army Commander

KCNA reported today that Kim Jong Un was appointed supreme commander of the Korean People’s Army, citing a decision taken yesterday at a meeting of the Politburo of the Central Committee of the Workers’ Party of Korea.

“Standing at the helm of the Korean revolution is Kim Jong Un, the only successor Kim Jong Il,” KCNA reported, citing the Politburo’s statement that called on the people to support the new leader.

North Korea must take a “decisive turn in the drive to build the country into an economic giant and improve the people’s standard of living,” the Workers’ Party central committee and Central Military Commission said in a joint statement today, published by KCNA. The power, coal and metal industries must be developed, foreign trade expanded and the capital, Pyongyang, turned into a world class city, they said.

Kim Jong Il made the country into an invincible political and ideological power and a powerful nuclear weapons state, according to the joint statement.

Economic Measures

Kim Jong Un needs to “prove himself in launching his new regime -- and an economic measure would be the most efficient way of doing that,” said Yang Moo Jin, a professor of North Korean politics at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul yesterday. “What’s more hard-hitting for North Koreans than policies that affect how they’ll be able to put food on the table?”

In his annual address on Jan. 2, Lee will focus on inter- Korean relations, inflation (SKCIYOY) and unemployment, according to a spokesman at Lee’s office who declined to be named, citing government policy.

North Korea’s 2010 gross domestic product was 30 trillion won ($26.5 billion), one-fortieth the size of South Korea’s, according to estimates by the South’s central bank. North Korea’s economy probably shrank in four of the past five years, the Bank of Korea says. Pyongyang doesn’t release GDP data.

Growth to Slow

South Korea’s gross domestic product nearly doubled to 1,173 trillion won ($1 trillion) from 2001 to 2010. The Bank of Korea forecasts that the country’s economic growth will slow to 3.7 percent next year from 3.8 percent this year.

Lee will take advantage of the transition in the North and announce a more conciliatory stance, said Kim Young Yoon of the Seoul-based Korea Institute for National Reunification. The opposition has blamed Lee for escalating tensions, saying his tough stance provoked hostilities that killed 50 South Koreans in 2010.

Lee scaled back the Sunshine Policy implemented by his predecessor, Kim Dae Jung, when he entered office in 2008, saying that Kim Jong Il’s provocative policies shouldn’t be rewarded.

Lee’s approval rating is at 26.9 percent, according to a poll of 3,750 South Koreans conducted Dec. 19-23 by Seoul-based Real Meter. The margin of error was plus or minus 1.6 percentage points.’’

Nuclear Talks

“The current mood in South Korea is to take advantage of the North’s regime change and improve inter-Korean relations,” Kim said. “The easiest way to do that would be to call for high-level meetings to make way for resumed six-party talks,” he said, referring to a dialogue that is aimed at persuading North Korea to relinquish its nuclear-weapons program and includes the U.S., China, Japan and Russia.

South Korea ordered a “low-level” alert after Kim Jong Il’s death was announced and expressed “sympathy” with the North Korean people, while limiting the number of its citizens who could travel to Pyongyang on condolence visits. Lee said the measures were meant to signal that his country wasn’t hostile toward the North, while Pyongyang issued threats of “unpredictable catastrophic consequences” over the South’s restrictions on visits.

Warship Sinking

Tensions on the Korean peninsula erupted into open conflict in March 2010, when 46 South Korean sailors were killed in the sinking of the Cheonan warship. An international panel blamed the attack on North Korea, which has denied the allegations. Eight months later, the North shelled an island in the Yellow Sea, killing four South Koreans.

North Korea, which has twice detonated a nuclear device, has more than 250 long-range artillery installations along the world’s most fortified border in reach of the Seoul area and its 23 million citizens. North Korea and South Korea remain technically at war after their 1950-1953 conflict ended in a cease-fire.

South Korea plans to set up a fund to raise as much as 55 trillion won to pay for the costs of eventual reunification with the North, South Korean Unification Minister Yu Woo Ik said in an October interview. Yu said the cost may be as high as 269 trillion won, or almost a quarter of South Korea’s 2010 gross domestic product.

While North Korea’s statement yesterday was its most belligerent since Kim Jong Il’s death, an attack is unlikely and it is focused mainly on food aid, said Kim Yong Hyun, a professor of North Korean studies at Dongguk University in Seoul.

“They want resumption of six-party talks more than anything because that’s the only way to get aid that is so crucial,” he said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Sangwon Yoon in Seoul at syoon32@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Peter Hirschberg at phirschberg@bloomberg.net; John Brinsley at jbrinsley@bloomberg.net